Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-06 12:47 | Report Abuse

Expect some very good news by tomorrow if no other issue crops up. Armada Sterling V will achieve first oil imminently within the next 24 hours.

Posted by KimSua > 2024-01-06 13:07 | Report Abuse

Winter snow storm to hit east coast USA and northern Europe. Polar vortex is back this year. Impacting oil production and increase in heating oil. Until Feb.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2024-01-06 15:51 | Report Abuse

This time betul happening? No more delay?

Posted by RISK8888 > 2024-01-06 21:53 | Report Abuse

Macam yes and macam no saja.

Posted by KimSua > 2024-01-07 05:05 | Report Abuse

Sudah 2024 Bro

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-07 08:17 | Report Abuse

Sorry mistaken 2023 news on Sterling V.
No wonder Armada price stangnant, it has been more than one year since FPSO Sterling V successfully hooked up with the buoy mooring system on end Dec 2022

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-07 09:41 | Report Abuse

It is done. First oil has been achieved at Armada Sterling V!

Posted by RISK8888 > 2024-01-07 10:42 | Report Abuse

Betul kah? Next Monday will be announce?

Posted by Leejunhan366 > 2024-01-07 10:49 | Report Abuse

Great news.

Posted by 8dragon > 2024-01-07 13:20 | Report Abuse

Another difficult year for O&G sector....

Posted by vespa > 2024-01-07 16:54 | Report Abuse

Long last

Posted by KimSua > 2024-01-07 19:13 | Report Abuse

Both techinals and fundamental so are strong next week. Should see better movement. Good luck

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-07 20:00 | Report Abuse

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-08 00:56 | Report Abuse

India’s state-controlled Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has kick-started oil production from its much-delayed flagship deepwater project in the Krishna Godavari basin offshore the nation’s eastern coast.

ONGC on Sunday confirmed the development and said that it has achieved “first oil production from the deepwater KG-DWN-98/2 block, situated off the coast of Bay of Bengal.”

The Indian giant noted that with the commencement of oil production from the 'M field' in the deepwater block, it has completed the project’s second phase of development.

“The flagship project is on track with final phase of the project planned to be completed by June and then onwards commencement of gradual ramping up to reach planned peak production of 45,000 barrels of oil per day and 10 million cubic metres per day (MMcmd) of gas from the deepwater KG-DWN-98/2 block,” it added.

However, ONGC did not reveal the initial oil production level achieved from the offshore asset.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/ongc-fires-up-oil-production-from-flagship-deepwater-asset/2-1-1579895

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-01-08 09:14 | Report Abuse

tq Niki for the update

Posted by RayLee > 2024-01-08 09:15 | Report Abuse

HLIB maintained its "buy" call on Bumi Armada, with a target price of 71 sen

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/695950

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-08 09:20 | Report Abuse

Thank you Niki for 1st hand information!!

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-01-08 09:25 | Report Abuse

It clearly indicated BA Sterling V.
__________________________________
ONGC fires up oil production from flagship deep-water asset
First oil flows from the Armada Sterling V FPSO
7 January 2024 15:33 GMT UPDATED 7 January 2024 23:23 GMT

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-08 09:43 | Report Abuse

We have an official announcement from ONGC to the Bombay Stock Exchange, but nothing from Bumi Armada (as usual/expected) to Bursa Malaysia about this milestone.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive//183acd19-41de-476c-99c9-47198bb27fa2.pdf

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-08 10:03 | Report Abuse

Maybe for oil field owner the first oil is the key milestone but for FPSO provider maybe final acceptance from client is the most important milestone. Maybe Bumi will made official announcement upon obtained final acceptance from the client.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-08 10:17 | Report Abuse

Felix they always announce first oil, check the historical announcements on Bursa. But always delayed by a few days, in the mean time the price has run up due to insiders buying.

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-08 13:04 | Report Abuse

Hahaha apologize I started Armada investment after the Kraken final acceptance was rejected. The last first oil was Kraken? Haha haha many years since the last first oil.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Felix they always announce first oil, check the historical announcements on Bursa. But always delayed by a few days, in the mean time the price has run up due to insiders buying.

Posted by tothemoon1218 > 2024-01-08 15:06 | Report Abuse

only ~RM300m of accumulated losses.. another 1-2 quarters of profit will clean up the balance sheet and dividends will come 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2024-01-08 21:27 | Report Abuse

yea tothemoon, it need another 2 quarters for dividend to come.

Trend in past 9 quarters
-268,748 -446,514 -565,284 -766,294 -976,975 -1,126,698 -1,312,948 -1,498,705 -1,616,706

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-09 09:05 | Report Abuse

Seems like UOB has a research update following the Armada Sterling V "first oil". Can anyone share the pdf of the research report please. Much appreciated!

Posted by Mkt888888 > 2024-01-09 09:10 | Report Abuse

FOCUS OF THE DAY
BUMI ARMADA (BUY Maintained, FV: RM0.68) All set for Armada Sterling V operations

We maintain BUY call on Bumi Armada with an unchanged sum-of-parts (SOP) derived fair value (FV) of RM0.68/share which implies a CY24F P/E of 5x, below its 3-year average of 6x. Our FV also reflects a neutral ESG rating of 3 stars.

India’s Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced that it finally achieved first oil from the M-field in deep-water KG-DWN-98/2 block on 7 January after experiencing a 1-year delay. This marks the commencement of oil production for FPSO Armada Sterling V, owned by the 70:30 JV between India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Energy and Bumi Armada.

We positively view the development which confirms the start of charter rate payments for FPSO Armada Sterling V in FY24F. This is in line with our expectations which incorporates contribution from JV and associates, projected to rise by 29% YoY, driven primarily by FPSO Armada Sterling V.

Bumi Armada currently trades at a compelling FY24F PE of 4x vs. the FBM KLCI's 1-year forward PE of 13x. This is unjustified given the group’s recurring and sustainable earnings stream from FPSO operations as well as an improving balance sheet.

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-09 11:28 | Report Abuse

Armada price at PE 13x following FBM KLCI forward PE is 0.1196 x 13 = RM 1.55 😍😍😍

Posted by jklkk911 > 2024-01-09 13:24 | Report Abuse

UOBKH HIGHLIGHTS
Bumi Armada (BAB MK/HOLD/RM0.52/Target: RM0.58)
ONGC Announces First Oil Production Of FPSO Armada Sterling V (ASV) On 7 Jan 24
WHAT’S NEW
 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has kick-started oil production from its much-delayed flagship project in the deepwater KG-DWN-
98/2 block. With the commencement of production from the M field (part of the US$5b Cluster-2 project) in the deepwater block, it has
completed the project’s second phase of development. The final phase is targeted to be completed by Jun 24, which will then see a gradual
ramp-up to reach a planned peak production of 45,000 boepd and 10million cubic meters (MMcmd) of gas.
 FPSO ASV5 is a JV that is 30:70 owned by BAB and Sharpoorji, for the KG-DWN 98/2 field. Note that the FPSO is already behind schedule.
ONGC had expected first oil by Nov 21 from its flagship deepwater KG-DWN-98/2 block, and then after the COVID-19 pandemic, after
several missed deadlines (May, Aug, Sep and Oct 23).
 Earlier, the Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli said the Cluster-II field, which had already commenced gas
production in Mar 20, is targeted for commercial crude production in May 24.
 The field development plan of Cluster-2 project has two components, 2A and 2B. While 2B is pure gas, 2A was anticipated to produce
77,305 barrels of oil per day (boepd) over 15 years. However, ONGC’s recent projections are only for 45,000 boepd.
COMMENT
 We think ASV5 progressing to operations is a net positive development, but more clarity is needed. Note that management shared
that they had recognised standby rates since Mar 23. Also, the US$930m loan facility achieved financial close on 9 Sep 23, although this is
still contingent on certain conditions such as receiving the final acceptance certificate, According to CareEdge, the previous rating agency
for the project loan (discontinued in Oct 23), the capex incurred was about US$1.17m, and the FPSO will be chartered to ONGC for nine
firm years.
 No change to 2023-25 earnings forecasts of RM601m/RM676m/RM711m. Our JV/associate forecasts for the three years are RM46m/
RM68m/RM82m. We retain our forecasts for now as the earnings profile of this FPSO is not clarly seaet The growths will be largely driven
by an improvement in FPSO performance after suffering the many setbacks prior to 2020. We do not assume a strong likelihood of its
subsea vessels securing works.
 Maintain HOLD and SOTP-based target price of RM0.58 (5x 2024F PE); within this the ASV JV valuation is unchanged at
RM0.03/share. The developments are largely in line with our expectations. At this juncture, we continue to see balanced risk-reward – even
though BAB now has a multi-year low gearing, this may not be reflected as a positive market factor. BAB is increasingly focused on
securing gas projects (capex sizes: US$0.2b-1b) vs FPSOs (mega capex: US$3b). BAB still remains as a discount to Yinson’s 15x PE
valuation, but both peers are valued within 5-7x EV/EBITDA. While Yinson holds many growth projects to justify a higher 7x EV/EBITDA, we
think BAB’s risk-reward is now balanced, after factoring in BAB’s execution risk and the lack of new contract catalysts.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-09 16:02 | Report Abuse

Thank you, good sir!

Posted by MM78 > 2024-01-09 20:31 | Report Abuse

Thanks to all for the update of Armada Sterling V first oil. It would be a BIG morale booster to the market including us, should the management declare some dividends after the next 2 quarters of profits wipe clean the accumulated losses. However, be prepared for the management to prioritize debt repayment than paying dividends; as there is no immediate new profit generating project coming on stream to boost the profit further.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-09 22:12 | Report Abuse

Honestly I don't think Bumi Armada is going to be a dividend play any time soon. If that's what you're looking for, look elsewhere. Soon as they can win some firm contract(s), they'll be taking on more debt to grow the business.

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-09 22:18 | Report Abuse

Maybe when you ask AK,

Hi Mr. AK do you know Bumi Armada`s share price now?

Mr. AK : I don't know, maybe RM 2.00??

He doesn't care about market price.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-01-10 07:16 | Report Abuse

for BA to pay DV they should wipe out their Accumulated Losses at Company Level.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-01-10 07:17 | Report Abuse

for DV is not just taking into account of Groups Accumulated Losses. U have to look at the Companies Accumulated Losses which stands at 1.742B in Dec 2022... and 1.77B in Dec 2021. company will only reduce its losses if the subsidiaries pay DV to the Company. BA as a company has zero business, its profit is derived from DV from subsidiaries. the NTA at company level is only 44 sen for FY Dec 2022. pls dont look at Group accounts for DV payment.

Posted by MM78 > 2024-01-10 09:16 | Report Abuse

AK would be very happy if Armada price is so low enough despite strong free cashflow the last few years for him to take it private at great profit ; this real or imaginary threat I have not discounted so far. Fingers crossed.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-10 12:31 | Report Abuse

Hopefully we hear some good news soon from the Caspian sea regarding the two subsea construction (SC) vessels. Either them securing new work, or disposed off to prevent any further bleeding and help with paring down the debt levels even further. The vessels have been out of work since Q1 2023.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-01-10 13:06 | Report Abuse

I kept watching the two SQ vessels all 2023 and it was disappointing to see them sit idle. Russia has been pumping out a lot of oil and exporting it to support war effort.

Posted by Joel77 > 2024-01-10 15:24 | Report Abuse

Hope today closed price can cross EMA 200, 0.53

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2024-01-10 18:13 | Report Abuse

Bumi Armada Berhad refers to its previous disclosures regarding its 30% associated company, Armada 98/2 Pte Ltd and wishes to announce that the Armada Sterling V FPSO has successfully achieved “First Oil” production on 7 January 2024. Following this, the Armada Sterling V FPSO will commence the necessary acceptance tests to achieve Final Acceptance, which is required for the vessel charter to commence. We will make further announcements regarding the matter as appropriate.



The announcement is dated 10 January 2024.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-10 18:40 | Report Abuse

Acceptance tests usually take 3 to 6 months. The most recent FPSO to hit first oil was rather infamously, the Armada Kraken acceptance tests was a shitshow and hope no such repeat this time.

Posted by tothemoon1218 > 2024-01-10 18:56 | Report Abuse

accumulated losses at company or consol level can be quickly cleaned with some accounting entries - that should settle it?

total borrowings have been decreasing steadily, cash balance has been stable. additional borrowings will typically be ringfenced to the SPV created to take on the project; any dividend-related terms imposed will likely be on the SPV, not the group

of course, one can wait for the board to be confident enough to declare dividends again (i.e. no flip flopping) before being bullish on BAB, or buy it in anticipation of said dividends being the catalyst for further capital appreciation of the stock.

on privatisation - my view is unlikely unless its at a fraction of its current price, say... 50%? why should TAK (1) pay a premium to other shareholders for a company he already controls (2) take on whatever financial risk tied to the group, alone (3) get stuck with a private entity which is unlikely to have an equity story for fund managers (not green/ESG mumbo jumbo) if he wants to relist it? Payback period and IRR is going to be shit and he'll be better off collecting interest on his cash - unless he's got a view of ready buyers for a stable of FPSOs, which is not many in the current market... maybe an offshore juggernaut like CNOOC or MODEC

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-10 19:35 | Report Abuse

Niki`s information is 3 days ahead of Bumi Armada IR announcement!💪

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-01-10 23:40 | Report Abuse

Chance of a CCS for Armada for this project.
I remember it and worked with many people from it when it was canceled a few years ago.
______________________________________
INPEX received government approval for the revised development plan for its long-delayed Abadi liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in eastern Indonesia.

The Japanese energy company submitted the revised plan to Indonesian government authorities on 4 April 2023, incorporating a carbon capture and storage (CCS) component into the existing development plan.

The company said in a press release that the project would be the first in which CCS-related costs are eligible for recovery based on the production-sharing contract (PSC) that governs crude oil and natural gas upstream operations in Indonesia.

Approval of the revised development plan “paves the way for INPEX and its partners to fully mobilize the project as a clean project in support of the energy transition."

INPEX and its project partners plan to amend the PSC to incorporate CCS into the contractual scope of work, resume project operations, including on-site activities, and prepare for front-end engineering and design work.

Abadi is in the Masela block, 150 km offshore Saumlaki in Maluku province, Indonesia. It is estimated to hold nearly 10 Tcf of recoverable natural gas reserves.

The annual LNG production volume for the project is expected to reach 9.5 mtpa, equivalent to more than 10% of Japan’s annual LNG imports,and up to about 35,000 bbl of condensate daily. The project will also supply 150 MMcf/D of natural gas via pipeline to address local demand.

INPEX holds a 65% operating interest in Masela PSC and is the operator of the Abadi gas project. Pertamina holds a 20% operating interest, and Petronas Masela holds a 15% operating interest. The two companies officially became partners in the Abadi LNG project on 18 October 2023, following the completion of the conditions precedent under the sales and purchase agreement on the transfer of Shell’s participating interest.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-01-11 00:21 | Report Abuse

@Robert, I have no direct knowledge of Bumi Armada's active participation in the Abadi field. However, I do know they're working on a mystery carbon capture injection system for a gas field in Indonesia. Could this be what it's referring to?

From one of their recent press releases:

"Drawing from this experience, Bumi Armada is currently engineering a carbon capture injection system for a gas field in Indonesia."

Source: https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=140265&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-01-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

BAs net short position reducing.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-01-11 09:44 | Report Abuse

down to 46M from 56M

Posted by yilonma > 2024-01-11 10:01 | Report Abuse

Still PT of RM0.64 on average, ~10% upside if go in. Other counters are stagnant since overbought

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-01-11 10:18 | Report Abuse

Niki, BA did NOT participate in Abadi in any way.
Yes, I was referring to their intention to participate in the Indonesian CCS project, and this one would be similar. I do not believe Japan has resources to handle it all. They will have to cooperate.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-01-11 17:06 | Report Abuse

Buy now, for your coming CNY ANGPOWSSSSSSS, last bus

Posted by 8dragon > 2024-01-11 17:54 | Report Abuse

Tan Sri A. K not celebrating CNY, so no angpow...