Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2024-04-03 13:45 | Report Abuse

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ongc-to-invest-4-5-billion-in-2-3-years-to-boost-output-from-mature-fields-12559841.html

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-03 15:42 | Report Abuse

One can only hope the latest rally is being driven by an impending contract award that insiders are aware of.

Posted by zonefinder > 2024-04-03 17:12 | Report Abuse

Yeah, even the Looong term investors are getting sick of waiting for good news on project wins from BA.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-03 17:40 | Report Abuse

Just heard from Pharos that the lease extension for the TGT FPSO will be signed in the middle of next month. Likely to be for 2 year period (with a further 5 year extension thereafter).

Posted by lloydlim > 2024-04-03 19:12 | Report Abuse

Buying interests is back!

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2024-04-03 20:04 | Report Abuse

YTD net bought of RM80M+ from FF

Posted by jacintateh > 2024-04-04 12:23 | Report Abuse

jacintateh Three months down and still, nothing to show for. Come on Bumi Armada!Day by day, I lose that bit more faith in the company. Will plan an exit within the next 6 months if there's still nothing new secured by then or if there's an inexplicable run-up in the share price.
01/04/2024 5:48 PM;

agreed... will do too, all highly rated by analyst but it's performance is so lacklustre whereas others (e. Perdana/Velesto (though different segments) have overtaken it. As long as the major resistence of 0.585 is unbroken, it will definetely be difficult to reach 0.615/0.63/0.66.
04/04/2024 11:32 AM

Posted by Penarak > 2024-04-04 15:18 | Report Abuse

Yesterday top speed....today slo back again.

Posted by serpent100 > 2024-04-05 06:35 | Report Abuse

Brent oil 91 usd …wohoo
Limit up today

Posted by bose00 > 2024-04-05 08:19 | Report Abuse

US market taking a dive be careful not to rush in blindly !

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-05 09:34 | Report Abuse

Great support at 58. take ur chances.

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2024-04-05 09:54 | Report Abuse

US market taking a dive due to Technology stocks dipping yesterday. Mainly because there is news there might be no interest rate cut. Oil going up because Israel-Iran escalating fighting.

Posted by steady31 > 2024-04-05 09:55 | Report Abuse

chart is all clear for a upward thrust to cover gap at 63.5 and thereafter to test resistance at 68

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-05 09:58 | Report Abuse

Thank you chartists and technical traders for doing the dirty work.

Posted by jacintateh > 2024-04-05 14:53 | Report Abuse

too many sellers, esp' day traders, making the share drop back. when only can break 0.6 dessisively? longer we keep, the higher the risk.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-06 17:49 | Report Abuse

BA is not ready to move up. many short term traders have jumped in due to TA being strong. good support at 58.5 to 59.5...the earlier resistance has become a support. more long-term holders will move in. wait for Q1 results, which may be the highest profit. I still see the past high to be the next major resistance. breaking that 1.00 is a possibility.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-07 23:00 | Report Abuse

Bearish only if drops below 58.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-07 23:14 | Report Abuse

In the upcoming weeks/months, we can expect some wins from the current projects being worked on.

1. Shell FSIU
2. Bluestreak FCSIU
3. Madura FLNG
4. Mystery FSRU
5. Mystery Indonesian CCS project
6. Abadi Onshore Gas Plant
7. Pipelay Contract for SC Vessels in Caspian Sea
8. Multi-year extension for TGT FPSO
9. Multi-year extension for Sterling II FPSO

For items 1 to 6, we should hope to secure 2 to 3 contracts. If we hear nothing about these by the end of the year, assume we’ve failed to secure them.

Item 7 will be a huge win as the revenue will mostly translate to net profit gains, given that the vessels are cold stacked and costing the company every month (plus depreciation).

Item 8 and 9 are expected. Not getting either will be a big loss.

We won’t see a new FPSO win for the next year or so as Bumi Armada doesn’t have any serious prospects at the moment.

Posted by Cockcroach > 2024-04-08 08:09 | Report Abuse

Thanks for update Nikicheong

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-04-08 12:41 | Report Abuse

Here are the catalysts from a year ago. I publish for long term investors to assess what was achieved.
____________________________________________
Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts:

0) Repair of the Kraken FPSO's HSP Charge Pump Transformers so the FPSO can return to full operational capacity (Kraken FPSO presently only running at 100% capacity). Without this pre-condition met there cannot be confidence in BA ability to deliver and operate facilities.

New wins (most significant items 1 - 5):

1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from Total Energies - This is only an EPCC contract that will sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract (BOO). However; it could be valued up to 1 bln myr.No financing / rights issue needed.

2) Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to happen soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America with market rather tight in terms of supply as many suppliers are overextended. Conoco Phillips at Salam Petawali, Kelidang in Brunai or Limbayong.

3) Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO, 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia) and Palok field (Mexico). In Malaysia, Bestari (Sabah) could be an option, building upon Limbayong negotiations.

4) Non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO - The Mumbai Port FSRU project has been deferred. No other publicly known bids for now. ESG funding at preferred rate may be available.

5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels is high as flurry of work in the region exists due to high oil price environment. Lukoil gave contract to BAB in 22, also paid OSV despice sanctions. All 3 vessels as of 31 Dec 2022 were laid up. Alternative to contract for the Caspian Sea work: sale, move assets home, contract elsewhere.

Other positive developments (items 6 - 10):

6) Green energy goals (leading to ESP score upgrades and ESG rerating up to 6% by IB):
a) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO)
b) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO
c) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures

7) Business as usual objecties:
a) Full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India
b) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO (Done)
c) Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel (Done)

8) Contract extensions:
a) Positive development at the Kraken field, such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields - This would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025. For now, EnQuest has indefinitely deferred drilling due to commence in 2023 because of the newly introduced windfall tax in the UK. Also, excessive drilling may lead to adopting new solution by EnQuest. Existing setup satisfactory with 0.5 mln USD bare boat charter.
b) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being pursued in the aged TGT field. (jPending).
c) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (due in Q4 2024). Achieved for only 1 year at lower rate than original contract.

9) Positive Financials:
a) QR of 3+ sens
b) IB re-rating to RM 0.90
c) Gearing down to around 0.5
d) Counter price increase to > RM 1 (no more penny stock discount) causing institutional, foreign and private equity / family trust buying.

10) Improved distribution of the stock:
a) Involving more large / public investors, institutional buying by means of formal inclusion in KLSE index, sector index, ESG rating, pension fund committment, etc (other than just by not being a penny stock).
b) Company presentations to the investors overseas, e.g. USA, resulting in purchases by 'deep pocket' significant shareholders at > 5%.
c) Significant insider's buying as a sign of confidence. So far, only the president has been making steady investment.

Bonus general catalysts that can be included in the score as well, independent of BAB:

11) Positive oil and gas industry fundamentals
a) Oil price at > 100 USD per barrel
b) Commodities supercycle with basic commodity prices firming up overall, even if oil < 100 USD
c) China recovery
d) Strategic Petroleum Reserve buying in the US
e) Interest rates going down substantially, 2% for 10 year US Treasure Bond

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-08 15:06 | Report Abuse

Walao last year's report card would've failed. They failed to achieve anything significant. Most important thing they achieved was stabilization of the Kraken FPSO.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-04-09 00:19 | Report Abuse

Agree Niki. Those were your catalysts, with some comments by me and others put together in one post.
Many thanks for providing them and commenting.
There should not have been Kraken problem in the first place, but they still deserve credit.

Posted by Cockcroach > 2024-04-09 05:45 | Report Abuse

Shall continue to hold. More upside to come

Posted by vespa > 2024-04-09 06:52 | Report Abuse

just about three weeks ago net shorts was 55 million
it is now at at about half at 26 mil. ie positive. It is just another metric to consider

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-09 11:48 | Report Abuse

Keep an eye out for this: https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/singapore-player-kicks-off-bid-battle-for-prized-asian-gas-fpso/2-1-1623122

Singapore-headquartered Jadestone Energy has launched the bid process for a prized floating production, storage and offloading vessel required for its Nam Du and U Minh (NDUM) gas fields development offshore Vietnam.

The much-delayed shallow water development had been very close to sanction pre-Covid, but the operator is not expecting there to be much of a capex increase despite the passing years, Upstream has learned.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-09 11:52 | Report Abuse

For further reading:

1. www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/20240126-Vietnam-NDUM-Project-Overview-vF.pdf

FID is expected in mid to late 2025. So still over a year to go.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-09 11:52 | Report Abuse

2. www.jadestone-energy.com/gas-sales-heads-of-agreement-signed-for-nam-du-u-minh-fields-offshore-vietnam/

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-09 12:09 | Report Abuse

This is a medium-sized gas FPSO that should be of strong interest to Bumi Armada. Might even drive cost synergies with their existing operations in Vietnam (i.e. TGT FPSO).

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-09 17:28 | Report Abuse

Weird closing, someone bid 4+mil units at RM0.62 and above

Posted by Cockcroach > 2024-04-09 18:48 | Report Abuse

The person bought such a big chunk. He wants to guarantee himself that hr got those 4+ mil lots before Raya

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2024-04-10 14:16 | Report Abuse

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/09/biggest-north-sea-oil-find-in-decades-drilled-first-time/

Posted by daretocutandchange > 2024-04-10 16:49 | Report Abuse

hibiscus same situation too,last minute buying ordered at 2.8 suddenly up from 2.73

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-10 18:19 | Report Abuse

Well it that case, might've been some last minute sector rotation in to O&G stocks, perhaps on a bet that crude price will continue rising over the Raya break.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-10 23:00 | Report Abuse

Hold BA ... only cut loss at 58... upside can be very good.... it has been gradually moving which is very good vs a spike which most traders prefer.

Posted by Cockcroach > 2024-04-11 08:52 | Report Abuse

Why cutloss 0.58? If dropped till 0.575 then rebound, hati sakit.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-11 10:57 | Report Abuse

true #cockroach... but that's what TA is all about. if bounce back to 59.5 buy back at 60.

just like right now, the shorties need to cover the short positions as it has gone above long-term resistance of 58.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-11 14:09 | Report Abuse

New Indonesian FPSO tender: https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/feed-tenders-launched-for-platform-and-floater-for-indonesian-oilfield-development/2-1-1624929

Bumi Armada's experience with the Kraken heavy oil field might give them an advantage here. But it's possible that this project might not be financially sound.

Posted by steady31 > 2024-04-11 17:16 | Report Abuse

UK EnQuest 's Bressay new oil discovery of up to 600m barrels of oil so near to Kraken that it is conceivable that Armada's kraken FPSO may be engaged to process and export its newfound oil

Posted by steady31 > 2024-04-11 17:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/09/biggest-north-sea-oil-find-in-decades-drilled-first-time/

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-11 21:11 | Report Abuse

Bressay gas tieback to Kraken FPSO will cost GBP60mil. Some of this will go to Bumi Armada as they will play a key role in the tieback to the FPSO.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-11 21:31 | Report Abuse

Kraken diesel consumption to reduce by 80% with this measure. Currently, diesel spend at Kraken FPSO is around GBP30mil per annum.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-11 21:37 | Report Abuse

Enquest will consider purchasing the Kraken FPSO - depending on the situation at the time. But negotiations / discussions on this are ongoing.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-11 22:16 | Report Abuse

The Enquest's investor meet was very positive on the Kraken development, upcoming Bressay gas tieback, and future Bressay and Bently oil tie back to the Kraken production hub.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-04-12 14:27 | Report Abuse

Its time to tp and let go

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-12 15:31 | Report Abuse

Tim quit smoking so much coke!

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2024-04-13 12:31 | Report Abuse

https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/enquest-to-drill-biggest-north-sea-oil-field-in-20-years

Posted by bullrun168 > 2024-04-14 09:56 | Report Abuse

If Iran attacks Israel, Middle East turmoil could lift oil past $100 a barrel
Published: April 12, 2024 at 1:22 p.m. ET
By Myra P. Saefong

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/if-iran-attacks-israel-middle-east-turmoil-could-lift-oil-past-100-a-barrel-fd76ea09

Oil prices could rise by $15 a barrel if all of Iran’s output is interrupted: analyst

Oil traders know the all-too-familiar drill: Heightened tensions in the Middle East have led to a rally in prices — so far to the highest intraday levels in six months. If Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, gets directly involved, however, a return to prices of more than $100 a barrel may soon follow.
“Nobody wants to be short heading into the weekend,” said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners. “If the conflicts escalate over the weekend, short sellers will lose their shirts when they wake up on Monday.”

What’s happened
An April 1 airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Syria, which Tehran has attributed to Israel, killed seven Iranian military officers and prompted a vow of retaliation from Tehran.

Since the start of the war in Gaza in early October, there has been a rise in clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants based in Lebanon. Hamas, which governs Gaza and launched the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, is also backed by Iran.
News reports have said that an Iranian attack on Israel is believed to be imminent, with the Wall Street Journal reporting the possibility of an attack as soon as Friday or Saturday.
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued a travel advisory on Thursday, warning U.S. citizens in Israel against travel outside of major cities such as Tel Aviv.

John Kirby, the Biden White House’s adviser for national-security communications, told reporters Friday that the administration is “certainly mindful of a very public, and what we consider to be a very credible, threat made by Iran in terms of potential attacks on Israel,” and that it was watching developments “very, very, very closely.”
Oil rally
Prices for oil have climbed so far this month alongside the rising tensions in the Middle East, with U.S. benchmark crude futures trading 5% higher and global benchmark Brent crude gaining closer to 6%.
In Friday dealings, May West Texas Intermediate crude CL.1 CLK24 was up 76 cents, or 0.9%, to trade at $85.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $87.67, while June Brent crude BRN00 BRNM24 climbed 90 cents, or 1%, to $90.64 on ICE Futures Europe following a high at $92.18. Both touched their highest intraday levels since October.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-04-14 14:32 | Report Abuse

Might be good time to exit if Bumi Armada's share price spikes up in the coming week due to macro factors, namely MidEast tension and the ensuing spike in crude oil prices.

Note: This applies for those who've lost faith in the company's future potential. However, this might also be a pivotal moment as a contract award / extension or other key announcement (such as debt refinancing) might just be around the corner.

Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-04-14 18:08 | Report Abuse

Queue sell one batch 0.69. 😎

Posted by marlboroman2 > 2024-04-14 21:10 | Report Abuse

TASI Tadawul Saudi market index which reopened today on Sunday after the long Eid holidays was rather muted (dived down at the opening hour but had clawed back almost all points towards the closing)