Posted by wattsy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hibiscus actually has around 650 mill in unrestricted cash. Debt is reducing from term loan to around RM350 mill at present - it's not due straightaway of course and they have facility for more. Interesting thing then is that the entire Brunei acquisition is likely covered by their present free cash. I sure they may leverage a bit more debt but it looks very healthy to me. Just wish they'd get more agressive with better dividends and share buy backs. I wonder if eventually the global oil supply deficit will eventually push prices up. Difficult to understand with so many moving parts but Opec won't want oil prices below where they are at presently and will probably defend the downside.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://ir2.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/docs/presentation/QR%20Q4%20FY2024%20Analyst%20Briefing%20Final.pdf

slide 15, net cash 238.5 mil or was I wrong?

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Bcoz hibiscus has to pay the deposit for the acquisition of Brunei asset

Posted by kahhoeng > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=148095&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

The purchase consideration is approximately RM 1.21 billion, with RM 0.23 billion already paid, leaving RM 980 million. There is no mention how much dividend has been declared for FY2023, so the maximum amount yet to be paid should be at least RM RM 700 million, assuming FY2023 and 9 months FY2024 RM 280 million was declared (quite generous already?). With RM 230 million and assuming this amount should be kept for rainy days, Hibiscus will have to secure RM 700 million loan for Brunei acquisition, RM 370 million for dividend (assuming dividend to be the same as FY2024), and RM 450 million for capex (USD 260 million or RM 1.15 billion - operating cash flow of RM 700 million, assuming 30% drop (reasonable?)). That would mean, assuming brent is relatively stable, Hibiscus will need to raise approximately RM 1.52 billion, correct?

Posted by thesolarguy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The payment for Brunei is substantial.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Didn't u read that the acquisition was done many years back. The profit accrued from the time of acquisition till October 2024 is almost sufficient to cover the cost of acquisition. And the capex. Didn't u read it's just a estimated capex. Same like the capex for 2024 was estimated to be higher but actual is lower? Dr K had grew this company from a few k bbd to almost 35k bbd in 2025. Can't you just has faith in his management and numbers

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

370 million for dividend? 7.5cents per share. With 80 million shares it will be about 60 million? I was wondering u keep bad mouthing hibiscus and wat is Ur intention if Ur facts and figures r wrong

Posted by kahhoeng > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

ahh... my bad. I invested in Hibiscus, trying to understand the whole picture, don't get so upset. So, with dividend staying the same, that would still mean Hibiscus will need to raise approximately RM 1.21 billion, assuming projects and dividend stay? I put RM 700 million for Brunei acquisition after assuming RM 280 million was declared by the Brunei assets to be enjoyed by Hibiscus. Is 280 million too little or too much?

Posted by Six6thsense > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Pants drop till ahma also cannot recognise. Haha

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

To be frank, I have been investing in hibiscus for a decade. From the Brent price of 100 to negative territory and back up to 130 and now 70 plus. Throughout this journey the return is not as good as other god like counters. But then we have to ask ourselves a question. Did the hibiscus management failed us before in terms of their guided production, forecast dividend, acquisition. As far as I remember, everything they promised they do make it come true. The only setback in this counter is the continuous fall of share price. But that's the consequence of expansion, as somebody knew that with the acquisition, new drilling, high capex, the company wouldn't be able to fight the market using share buy back. However as soon as hibiscus made more n more profit, the free cash flow in the coffer may finally be used to support its share price

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Just compare the production qty, oil price and USD/MYR for now vs 2018-2019. Without capex, they can easily pay rm0.50 dividend. Want or dont want only. Why dont want ownself figure out.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The purchase price is about 1.2 bill. Deduct 20 percent of down payment then it's about 950 mill. Deduct the retained profit since 2021 till now, maybe another 400 mill. Deduct again the sliding USD myr rate by 8 percent which is about 40-50 mill. So I guess acquisition might just be around 500 mill range.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Exactly ninja. The management decided for expansion than returning all profit to us. But am I sad about it? No. Bcoz the acquisition of repsol asset has proven to be deal of the century. And with the current depressed share price, it always provide us a chance to buy in. Those who keep pressing give us a chance to collect more.

Posted by Income > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Why jump down?

Posted by Six6thsense > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Are you all fear now?

Posted by raymondroy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The unit production costs for these assets for the 12 months ended 31 December 2023 have decreased (currently averaging USD 25.54 per boe, USD 21.31 per barrel, and USD 13.32 per boe for Anasuria Cluster, North Sabah and Peninsula Hibiscus respectively).

Therefore if Brent at $80/bbl thats 80-25.54=54.46 profit?
Thats 25.54 x 7,865bbls x 365 days = $73,318,316 per annum?
Is this correct ?

Posted by nazr690519a > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

kahhoeng,
MB concern on capex is not a concern at all. The reason behind why Jeremy Yap from MB gave lower TP is his NPV is lower than the rest. Very much lower. Any companies can easily get borrowings from banks e.g. E&O, Parkson
2 Less revenue FY25. 5199 has a production target for 2025-2026. 5199 intend to produce 35,000 - 50,000 bpd. As of today, 5199 already achieved the lower end of its target for 2025 -2026. That is 35,000 bpd.
3 As of reduction on production from existing asset in FY2025. Sometimes, they did this on purpose. You sell everything you got when price is high. You keep some when price is low. We do this all the time. Crude and LNG tankers just anchored nearby waiting for offtakes/offloading. There are also other fields are in 5199 pipeline e.g. North Sea, PM3 CAA and expected to go online early next year. This includes Brunei assets as soon as TotalEnergie agrees. And it appears that 5199 is very confident this will happen soon. The existing staffs just change their fireproof coverall from TotalEnergie to Hibiscs. And off they go.
4 As for lower exchange rate & crude oil prices. We especially those in Oil&Gas upstream industry know we can always increase our production to compensate this. It is true that Brent oil once dipped below USD40 or even gone as low as USD21, this is due to new entrant, oil shales. OPEC didn't want to loose their market share, so they dropped their selling price to maintain market share. Now due to fracking process, many countries banned extracting crude oil using fracking process.
5 5199 already made their forecast from 2025 onwards, brent oil will drop further from 72 - 75 range. And they already have a mitigation plan in place.
I find that these concerns are exaggerated and not taken into account that OWNERs or COMPANYs build tanks that they dont explode, structures that wont fail and ships that wont sank.

Posted by nazr690519a > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

+ Oil wells that won't leak

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Well said nazr690519a. The share price is out of our control. But the fundamentals can't be manipulated. Hibiscus has always plan ahead of time. We just need to follow their plan

Posted by kahhoeng > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

nazr690519a, thanks!

I suppose, we can only wait to see

1. How much Hibiscus has to prepare to pay for Total's asset in Brunei. If it's below RM 700 mil, that would be a plus? And what would the total debt Hibiscus has to take given dividend/capex plan and Brunei acquisition?
2. How low actual oil and gas price relative to Hibiscus forecast, assuming Hibiscus has in place a mitigation plan. My assumption is a FY25 operating cash flow of about the same or slightly lower with the Brunei's asset due to lower price going forward (bad economy or competition?) Delivering a higher operating cash flow above RM 1 billion would be considered positive?
3. The ability of Hibiscus to actually cutting capex should oil price dip below 75 to a level Hibiscus balance sheet can afford?

Posted by Income > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

What!

Posted by Income > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Oo｡

Posted by Income > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hibiscus flower✌️

Posted by greed123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Told ya, not worth investing in this green washing company….. IB’s are looking at “greener pastures”. 🌿

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

If my estimation is correct it will back to rm 1.20

Posted by Ubaidah At-Tasiki > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

It's coming. Wait big volume come in then can look

Posted by ZoeZoe > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

what happened to Hibiscus? below 2rm??

Posted by kahhoeng > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

oil is falling fast. I am hoping for brent staying strong above 75, but it's 69 now. My best guess, that's why it's below 2 now. Sigh!

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook ...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-steady-supply-disruptions-storm-francine-offset-weak-demand-2024-09-10/

Posted by wattsy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hibiscus bought back a load of shares today. They know it's an absolute bargin.. PE is 3.. Where can you find that! Anywhere?

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

U can buy at rm 1
20 later

Posted by wattsy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Sorry but ur talking absolute nonsense without any justification

Posted by kahhoeng > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3483064

thanks to the BODs, an addition RM 0.01 per share dividend (entitlement date to be determined) on top of the earlier announced RM 0.015 per share dividend ex- Sep 25

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

$2 strong buy

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Awesome, Hibiscus moves back up to RM2.10 level. Next resistance will be RM2.30 🤗

Posted by wattsy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Who bought all the shares at close...wasn't me 😉

Posted by wattsy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Also interesting that Hibby is now mostly gas. And gas is up almost 15% in the last month....

Posted by Six6thsense > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

So is the bottom found? Pull hard to confirm before push.

Posted by Income > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

NatsukoMishima
If my estimation is correct it will back to rm 1.20
09/09/2024 7:57 PM


7

Jepun why rm 1.20?

Posted by EliteYY69 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This Nutsuco had no idea what he talking. He doesn't even know about the share consolidation during the RM1. Does he think the stock just jump from 1.2 to 2.75 with such terrible gap ?

Posted by NESARAJAH1 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Senseless talk

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Global oil demand averaged 102.5 million barrels per day through September 18.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/jp_morgan_talks_global_oil_demand-20-sep-2024-178167-article/

Posted by wattsy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

When's everyone going to cotton on that Hibby is now half Gas and moving more in that direction. Gas has gone up 20% this month and still rising..

Posted by enigmatic [bamboo investing style] > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Undemanding valuations.

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3485953

Posted by CTY2023 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Rocket soon

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Rock to bottom?

Posted by ZoeZoe > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

wow big drop! i rather forfeit the dividend and buy at 2rm!

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

sigh, same feeling, wanna puke

Posted by STFUrr88 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Traders still thinking hibiscus is an more oil and less gas company. Nvm. Let them press more. I'm buying for the future. Anyway its a matter of belief. By 2028 with a production of 50k bbld. I don't believe it won't touch RM 5