Posted by wattsy > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Interesting thing for me as that Gas is now at year highs and 100% higher than the beginning of the year when Hibiscus would have been evaluating the Brunei gas acquisition! 100% more and climbing .. can’t see the share price being repressed much longer.. NTA must almost be RM6 with Brunei and they’ll be in a hugely cash positive position this quarter with all maintenance done in full production mode and Brunei fully contributing. Would not surprise if their PAT for this quarter is RM250 mill+. Is Hibiscus the most hugely undervalued Bursa bargin of the year?

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Watsy, how did u come out to a PAT of 250 mill. Definitely hibiscus is the most underrated stock in bursa. Lowest PE.

Posted by Six6thsense > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Buy

Posted by Phoebe > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Nice!!! Before Brunei acquisitions, gas was $2.1.....now already $4.1 and climbing...

Posted by learner9 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

regardless, this counter is still sleeping.

Posted by Six6thsense > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Prepare cash and wait for confirmed direction

Posted by jimmylim11 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Can someone provide some analysis for the Gas sold by Hibiscus? Since it is now 49% of the portfolio, we should look more into the Gas numbers as well.

How much is expected to be sold in FYE2025? Can be either in MMscf or MMBtu.
What is the production cost for Gas? This is to know roughly the margin for profits.
Could it be that the profits from Gas is still too little in comparison to oil sold that nobody is paying attention to Gas. Didn't see any analysis in any analyst's reports.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Previously there's a forumer named twynstar who gave detailed facts based analysis on hibiscus. Wished that twynstar can continue providing insight into the company that we can all benefit for. LNG is just too difficult to comprehend due to it's benchmark unlike oil in brent. Just that to comfort ourselves, the acquisition is done when the range of US natural gas future is around the 3.2 region. Since then it has gone up to 4. Judging from wat management provided, the Brunei asset contributes about 8k bboe. I guess at current natural gas price, the asset itself would have generated about 40-50 mill PAT per qr.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

My figures might not be very accurate, but conservatively speaking the coming qr might provide a PAT of about 140 mill. And the qr in may will definitely beat the 150 mill mark.

Posted by jimmylim11 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

STFU, I have the same exact expectations as you. This coming QR 130-140mil and next QR more than 150 mil. I also expect NTA to revalue back upwards since the USD has appreciated back to RM3.70+ . But I'm not sure how the NTA will be affected with the inclusion of Brunei assets & debt. Looking forward to the next few days to collect the dividends 3 Cents. Will not be using it for CNY but to top up more HIBISCUS. Still have to average down.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Jimmy, hopefully the management can stun us with a better results. Make hibiscus the first company in bursa with PE less than 3 to show to the world how manipulated is our stock market. Brent above 80 for the whole year means 10.5c dividend is coming next year. I just don't see any negatives at this point of time.

Posted by Gaussian > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Keep buying. Brent going to 100 😆

Posted by twynstar > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

For crude oil pricing, major indices were Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price.

For natural gas or LNG pricing, different regions, different index, different units ( per mmBTU, per megawatt hour)

For examples,

US : Henry Hub Natural Gas

Europe : Dutch Title Transfer Facility ( TTF) Natural Gas

UK : Heren National Balancing Point (NBP) Natural Gas

Asia : Japan Korea Marker ( JKM ) LNG price

Posted by twynstar > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

North Sabah, Kinabalu, PM3 CAA and Anasuria Hibiscus all produce oil. Meanwhile, PM3 CAA, Anasuria Hibiscus and Brunei MLJ produce gas.

The PM3 CAA gas price is linked to the price of Singapore High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO). In FY23 and FY24, the PM3 CAA gas price on a US$ per boe basis was 47-48% of the Singapore HSFO price. This worked out to between US$5/MMBtu and US$6/MMBtu


Gas prices for the respective fields in the Anasuria Cluster, are as follows:
• Cook field – gas is priced at 75% of the Heren National Balancing Point (NBP) index;
• Guillemot A, Teal and Teal South fields – gas is priced at 85% of the Heren NBP index.

Posted by twynstar > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

These are summaries from Mr Raymand Yap, CGS analyst. He did a very good and detail analysis of Hibiscus, published on 02/12/2024

Hibiscus has a much greater sensitivity to oil prices compared to gas prices. North Sabah, Kinabalu, PM3 CAA and Anasuria Hibiscus all produce oil. Meanwhile, PM3 CAA’s gas output is priced against Singapore HSFO, which is closely linked to oil price.

Natural gas prices in the UK (the Heren NBP index) will determine the pricing for Anasuria Cluster’s gas output, but the Anasuria Cluster’s production of gas only accounted for 11% of its overall production in FY24, which represented just 1.1% of Hibiscus group’s total production in boe terms.

Once Brunei MLJ is consolidated into the group accounts, Hibiscus’s sensitivity to gas prices will increase, but not by much. Brunei MLJ’s production of condensate is sold at prices linked to oil, and RPS estimates that condensate will represent 15.6% of Brunei MLJ’s production in CY24F. The remaining 84.4% of Brunei MLJ’s production is gas.

A 10% portion of the gas volume is sold at a fixed price of US$0.33/MMBtu under the Brunei Domestic Gas Supply Obligation (DGSO). The remaining 90% of the gas volume is sold to BLNG at a contracted ratio to BLNG’s realised price of LNG. We believe that BLNG sells at least two-thirds of its LNG based on long-term contracts that are pegged to the Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) price and less than one-third sold is sold at the spot Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price. Consequently, we estimate that: • 10% of Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas is sold at a fixed domestic price;• c.60% of Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas is ultimately linked to oil prices [90% x 2/3]; and • Only c.30% of Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas is leveraged to spot JKM prices [90% x 1/3]. Hibiscus disclosed that the actual realised Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas in 2023 was US$4.70/MMBtu.

Overall, we estimate that on a full-year basis, only an average of about 7% of Hibiscus’s total production on a boe basis is exposed to spot gas prices, using proforma FY25F data as if Brunei MLJ had been consolidated into Hibiscus from the start of the financial year. Without Brunei MLJ, the direct exposure to spot gas prices is only c.1%.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Tqvm twynstar for the explanation. None of the posts here can match the information that u provide. I have always admired u in hibiscus forum just like dragon328 in ytlp forum.

Posted by Six6thsense > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sense 80percent pull up

Posted by wattsy > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Thanks Twynstar - Raymond Yap certainly knows how to put a comprehensive report together - I do find though that it’s overly conservative. Sure I understand some conservatism is ok but it would also be good if they put a range perspective in quantifying and valuing upsides also. For example you can’t say that Hibiscus is going to do nothing more than what is announced todate to increase profit / production in the years ahead and then put an overly conservative DCF model on this basis and derive ur valuation from it. The business is dynamic and they are very proactive,evolving and moving forwards. Already Raymonds model is out with both exchange rates and oil prices both more favourable to hibiscus’s bottom line. I’m sure the PM3 extension will also happen and none of that including the reduction in depreciation and amortisation the significant increase in extractible reserves is valued. Can’t believe they also only forecast a profit of RM240 million for the year.. seems way off. At least they still give a target price of RM2.8 by year end. Very generous of them..

Posted by STFUrr88 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Exactly watsy. Again and again the company has surprised us with earlier than expected acquisition. All of them has exceptional IRR. There's so many more exploration projects in the line which we can't gauge the discovery yet. Profit is definitely above the 400 mill mark and that's very conservative.

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Waiting to cut 10 yrs average

Posted by Sam88888 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

2.35

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Aramco chief expects additional oil demand of 1.3 million bpd this year 😯

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/aramco-chief-tells-davos-he-expects-additional-oil-demand-13-mln-bpd-this-year-2025-01-21/

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Flat then fake dive until qr and shoot

Posted by jimmylim11 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Hi Guys,
Just would like to update that as of yesterday 22 January 2025, shorties had covered 1,142,000 lots. Net shorts remain as 12,689,000 lots

Posted by STFUrr88 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Even kopi company can fetch a higher value than our beloved hibiscus. Wat is reali wrong here.

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

simply because the payout in the form of dividend is toooo low

Posted by STFUrr88 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I guess it's time to take a leaf out of ytl's book. Issue bonus warrant to us. Make it more rewarding in the sense 3:1 or 4:1 ratio and lower conversion price.

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

please give more dividend. So cash rich but keep

Posted by jimmylim11 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Market Cap for KOPI is bigger than Hibiscus. What a joke. It's currently valuing 40PE and they've only got 21 stores. Will they ever get RM400mil profit? But markets are irrational

Used up the dividends to load up more. I saw some charts that predict Hibiscus to rise to RM2.4 by end 2025 and RM2.5 by early 2026, but I'm not able to find that chart again. Hopefully that's true.

Brent is still strong at 79.

Posted by Sally15 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Whsap +44 7425 710 065

Posted by ZoeZoe > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Based on 1.90, HIbiscus current price is around 0.76 before spilt. During covid period it was hovering around 0.56-0.70. Fast forward today, it has not risen much at all! Undervalued!

Posted by STFUrr88 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Below 1.9 after all the gruesome months we have gone through. Seems like nth is working in this bursa.

Posted by wattsy > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Im sure Hibiscus management and main shareholders are equally frustrated. Will be interesting if the SBB intensify soon now dividends are out of the way. At 1.89 and oil still high (despite trumps wish for it to tank) with dividends around 10 cents for the year at least and profitable quarters ahead it’s even more compelling. Only issue is myself and other long term shareholders have taken a bit of a beating this past year. It’s all in the managements hands and control to turn this around…I am hopeful and believe they will step up.

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

the last time brent hit 78 on an uptrend, it was Oct 04, and Hibiscus was around 2.30. When brent hit 78 on a downtrend, it was Oct 14, and Hibiscus was around 2.20. Now, brent is 78 on a downtrend, Hibiscus is trading below 1.90. Sigh!

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

oh, when brent hit 78 on Jan 09, Hibiscus was at 1.95. So, by this trend, assuming Hibiscus fell below 78 and tried to climb to 78 in the future, Hibiscus should trade way below 1.95. So, with this up-down trend trying to cross 78, Hibiscus shall be free to collect after 10 cycles?

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Expected dive is coming. Next waiting high volume surge

Posted by Six6thsense > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

The operator is very cautious and meticulous. Tested up last year and now testing down to confirm

Posted by greed123 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-a-short-squeeze/ + itioditc Trump

Posted by jimmylim11 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

Since Brent is still 78, I added a small position at RM1.86

Posted by Alextan916 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Something not right on this counter. Over manipulated. Only one way direction continue down while profit is stable. Very strange counter.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

There's many counters in bursa which are over controlled by certain parties. Ikan bills like us always get fooled with. As long as it's a 1 way traffic mainly controlled by these parties, there won't be hope for all the listed companies.

Posted by Alextan916 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

It’s also very strange the company management not taking any action to improve investors confidence.

Posted by STFUrr88 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Yes. The SBB was persistent from 2+ till 1.9+. But since then the SBB stopped totally. Management themselves also not buying any personally. I'm an avid investor in hibiscus but my confidence has dropped to the lowest as the share price sunk below 1.9. That's the point I know nth is gonna happen

Posted by enigmatic [bamboo investing style] > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Wow, share price is nearly half of NTA... Is it a case of "When it rains gold, reach for the bucket" now?

Posted by Six6thsense > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Waiting 1.6 gongxifacai