callme77: What is your justification of RM0.675? If it is supported at that price until EGM, I am pretty sure majority, not just 25% of the shareholders, will reject the whole deal. So even doing right issues, does not make sense.
I believe, it will be traded above or no less than RM0.73.
1. The whole proposal to issue rights issue means there are no issues with the approval of the QA, from Securities Commission, points of view.
2. The proposed rights issue is one way to address the shortfall of cash plus concern from Securities Commission. I am pretty sure while submitting to SC, they would have consulted with SC, the option to overcome the shortfall.
3. The proposed rights issue is also a ingenious way to overcome some dissent shareholders (expected 25%) who may rejects the deals and block the whole deals.
4. The rights issue is a "reward" to the shareholders. Think about it, you will be getting not less than 30% discount for the rights share plus free warrant.
5. As I mentioned before, there share price cannot be traded less than the cash value simply because if that happens, then majority of the shareholders will vote against the deal, even the proceed from the rights issue will not be able to cover the shortfall as I pointed in point 3).
6. Why would one do rights issue at the low price, resulting is maximum dilution. In addition to that, still give discount not less than 30%.
7. Secondly, if you think point 4), 5) and 6) make sense, then the share price will go up from current price. The proposed rights issue not only address the funding shortfall but also a way to reward current shareholders.
Yes, mililia I agree with you and I hope u are right. I just hope that the additional money that an investor has to forked out may cause the share to fall to 0.675 as not every investor has the money to fund the buying of the rights. I do agree with that the share price should trade higher, technically, so that EGM time everyone will vote for the QA. I hope u are right.
i thought just bad timing for right issue with so much uncertainty about the current oil price, low share price and retailers have to fork out more money
1. The whole proposal to issue rights issue means there are no issues with the approval of the QA, from Securities Commission, points of view.
Make sense . Agreed
2. The proposed rights issue is one way to address the shortfall of cash plus concern from Securities Commission. I am pretty sure while submitting to SC, they would have consulted with SC, the option to overcome the shortfall.
Make sense . Agreed
3. The proposed rights issue is also a ingenious way to overcome some dissent shareholders (expected 25%) who may rejects the deals and block the whole deals.
Not sure whether RI will "oververcome" dissen shareholders. Dissenting shareholders will vote against to realize their sure profit so unlikely to be entice by the RI.
4. The rights issue is a "reward" to the shareholders. Think about it, you will be getting not less than 30% discount for the rights share plus free warrant.
since all existing shareholders are entitled to whatever discount and price will be adjusted ex right accordingly, there is absolutely no reward to shareholders no matter how large the discount is.
5. As I mentioned before, there share price cannot be traded less than the cash value simply because if that happens, then majority of the shareholders will vote against the deal, even the proceed from the rights issue will not be able to cover the shortfall as I pointed in point 3).
share price had been and is still trading below the cash value. If the price rises to at or above cash value,dissent shareholders will sell and realize their profit sooner and not wait for the money to be returned from the trust ac later. You need a a lot of financial muscle to change the tide, so i think this unlikely. Will the "invisible hand" waste their bullets in doing this??
6. Why would one do rights issue at the low price, resulting is maximum dilution. In addition to that, still give discount not less than 30%.
Bottom line is to raise the target amount of fund needed to bridge the potential gap. High discount tend to mislead a lot of people into thinking they are getting a bargain!! Every single shareholder is getting the same deal, what bargain is there??
7. Secondly, if you think point 4), 5) and 6) make sense, then the share price will go up from current price. The proposed rights issue not only address the funding shortfall but also a way to reward current shareholders.
No rights issue ever design to reward shareholders!
Sifu mililia Let's say no Right Issue first.. if price push up b4 d EGM to approve QA wil u sell or wil u hold?? What is fair value of Cliq after buying QA? Thank u
BenBlurBlur: First of all, please don't call me Sifu. I'm learning myself. The answer to your question is all depend. If the share price is only up equal or slightly more than cash value.. Most likely I will keep. Why? Because I wanna hold till ex-date and I will entitle my right. Whether to subscribe or not is different issue. If I don't want to subscribe, I still can sell my right.
But if the share price gone up so high, I will sell and talk later. Probably I can participate it again when the rights is traded and probably I can enter the counter at a cheaper cost through the right.
bcllct:- I will answer you in 3 parts basically. Thank you for your time to give constructive argument.
Point 3: What I'm trying to say is the rights issue will overcome the shortfall of cash coming from dissenting share holders. This is on top of short fall coming from our currency weakness. The exercise is not to entice dissenting shareholders. It's called dissenting shareholders for a reason.
Point 4,5,6: I think you get the concept wrong when come to discount. The discount of not less than 30% is not on CURRENT PRICE. The discount is after ex-price. So on ex-date the share price will be adjusted based on numbers right shares which will be issue. Then the to subscribe to the right share, you are paying 30% discount of the EX-PRICE. How can you confidently say that, "there is absolutely no reward to shareholders no matter how large is the discount?" Too make it obvious, if price shoot up to 80sen (let say only) and the exercise is 1 for 4 plus one free warrant. So theoretical ex price is 54sen. Then, the subscription price for the right share is 30% discount is 38sen. Would you pay 38sen to get for 54sen PLUS come with ONE WARRANT which is already IN THE MONEY?
And you won't BUY? That statement of "there is absolutely no reward to shareholders no matter how large is the discount" is a blanket misleading statement. And you are again wrong to say, " no rights issue ever design to reward shareholders".
If I'm the shareholders that also management role and I know the company is doing something big. I will do rights issue come with attractive priced warrants, if you know where I'm coming from. Think about it how shareholders can make money by paying small price on rights issue but to be compensated back through share price appreciation on mother and warrants. So don't be too confident to say "ever".
Point 5: If what you say is true, when the share price traded above cash value and all dissent shareholders sold instead of waiting money back from the trust, then let me ask you ask one question. The shareholders that came in later at higher price would they reject the deal? That's is one. Secondly, who do you think are the one that came in at higher price and bought the share from the supposed dissent shareholders?
If you can answer these two questions, you will know why the share price will be above cash value. A strategist would want to eliminate the dissent one before EGM (who want to wait for money to return from the trustee. Damn long). Those that buy from higher price could be the nominees from the related party. And they won't likely exit at minimal or no gain right? So the deal is most likely will go through in EGM.
Whether it is worth it to do it, let me lose this question. I will ask you what is the cost for the management per share? It's only RM0.01. What is the realized value for them if the deal is passed? It's potentially 50-60x gain on top of their cost. So do you think it is worth it for them to make it go through?
How about if I tell you it may not cost them anything (at least for now) for the invisible hand to act? That's a trade secret...
Things getting hot and hot. Should be ... after all..it's about oil and fuel. Exothermic reactions. I will buy much more when things get clearer. It gonna hit above 73sen soon if more support coming in.
mililia, thank you for your informed and well thought out comments. management did not say it, but I would imagine that rights issue are for "non dissenting" remaining shareholders only ,after the dissenting shareholders ( I will be one no matter what ) take their money and run when the question is posted to them. I would imagine dissenting shareholders get a total of (90% of ipo price + around 3 % pa - " certain expenses"); anyone care to comment?
No point to push it up above 0.72 since 25% will dissent. If push it up above 0.72 and people will start selling, and it will cost the management more money.
My best guess is after announcing EGM date, the price will rise near to 0.72. Probably around 0.71. A sure gain of 0.025 from current price, people will buy in.
But hv to wait a long time to refund market may not buy if too close to 0.72 n return jz slightly better than FD so can forget tis counter is it? Thank u
kt888 88 Dear All Sifu here: can tell me what will happen to CLIQ-WA when release the new warrant Quote: "Remarks : Each Warrant shall entitle the holder to subscribe for 1 new ordinary share of RM0.01 each in CLIQ at the exercise price of RM0.50 per Warrant, at any time during the period commencing from and inclusive of the date of completion of the qualifying acquisition up to and including the expiry date, being 3 years from the date of listing".... the way I look at it, Cliq-Wa holders "die" unless they subsribe at 50 cents after aquisition of QA to be entitled to rights issue. So all is so not good for warrant, sorry !
mililia, I am learning and I find that having to put my thoughts down in writing help greatly in my learning, hence my comments.
Point 3: What I'm trying to say is the rights issue will overcome the shortfall of cash coming from dissenting share holders. This is on top of short fall coming from our currency weakness. The exercise is not to entice dissenting shareholders. It's called dissenting shareholders for a reason. Agree with your clarification.
Point 4,5,6: I think you get the concept wrong when come to discount. The discount of not less than 30% is not on CURRENT PRICE. The discount is after ex-price. So on ex-date the share price will be adjusted based on numbers right shares which will be issue. Then the to subscribe to the right share, you are paying 30% discount of the EX-PRICE. How can you confidently say that, "there is absolutely no reward to shareholders no matter how large is the discount?" Too make it obvious, if price shoot up to 80sen (let say only) and the exercise is 1 for 4 plus one free warrant. So theoretical ex price is 54sen. Then, the subscription price for the right share is 30% discount is 38sen. Would you pay 38sen to get for 54sen PLUS come with ONE WARRANT which is already IN THE MONEY? I am well aware that the discount is on the ex all price. The fact remains that "there is absolutely no reward to shareholders no matter how large is the discount" My explanation as follow. Let us use your example above but allow me to simplify it slightly by removing the free warrant for the time being. i.e. a simple 1 for 4 rights issue where the rights price is ~30% discount to the ex-price. Using your assumption that the price shoot up to around 80sen and that the 5 days volume weighted average price( before the price fixing date) is 80.75sen, and that the rights share is price at 52 sen, then the TERP(theoretical ex-rights price) is 75 sen. However this does not mean that shareholder can buy share at 52 sen and sell it for 75 sen and make 44% profit! (if so everyone will be rich beyond imagination! BTW I do not know how you get your theoretical ex price of 54 sen???please explain) If you are an existing shareholder holding 4 shares, before ex your total 4 shares worth 4X0.8075=3.23, after ex you have 5 shares now worth 5X0.75 =3.75( assume that you intend to subscribe your entitle one rights share at 52sen) , the increase in your total shares worth is 52sen exactly the amount you paid to get the additional rights share( which was priced some 30% "DISCOUNT" to you) bottom line you gain Nothing! This is only to be expected as you can't simply create wealth by issuing more shares! Clearly the above conclusion is the same no matter the amount of discount. Giving "free" warrant will also not change the above conclusion. I also still believe that" no rights issue ever design to reward shareholders".( I may entertain an exception if you are the one to design it solely to reward shareholders) My believe is that shareholders will be rewarded only if the company make profit or create real wealth and that wealth can not be created by issuing rights, giving free warrants, giving "bonus shares" and any other such schemes. Taking your argument that the company is doing something big( i will here equate something big to making big profit although I do not believe this is true in general) and say the company profit double and so it should worth double and so every shareholder shares worth should also be double without any rights with warrants issue, in fact doing so will incur cost that will not increase company profit and distract management from focusing on creating real wealth. Berkshire had never ever did any such thing yet it is recognized as one of the the best( if not the best) compounding company the world had ever see.
How about if I tell you it may not cost them anything (at least for now) for the invisible hand to act? That's a trade secret... I am very keen to learn the secret.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
callme777
1,586 posts
Posted by callme777 > 2015-10-09 00:10 | Report Abuse
They will try to support above 0.675., my two cents worth. Don't think there will be a rally