______________________________________________________________________ Berjaya Auto, zooming ahead with greater market share Author: kltrader | Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2016, 10:19 AM
The Mazda brand is increasing seen on roads in Malaysia, with their flashy and modern designs. This is evident in the increase in market share by Berjaya Auto, rising 2.8% (YTD) compared with 2.1% for the entire of 2015. Read on to find out why Macquarie Equities Research (MQ Research) continues to like Berjaya Auto…
Event
In a world of declining industry volume, MQ Research continue to like Berjaya Auto, who via the Mazda brand, has persistently been gaining market share (2.8% market share YTD vs 2.1% in 2015). Latest monthly stats by the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) reinforces this view, with Mazda (+19%) and BMW (+35%), the only two brands showing unit growth YTD, amid a double-digit decline in total industry volume (-19% YTD).
Impact
Industry struggling to sustain MoM growth momentum. While March 2016 saw the first MoM growth since December 2016, April failed to produce similar trajectory as vehicle sales slumped 7% YoY and 14% MoM. Based on MAA data, new vehicle registration continued to be sluggish at 42.2k units, vs 45.2k units last year and 48.8 units in March. The YoY weakness was driven by passenger vehicles, down 7%, whereas commercial vehicles registration was flat YoY. Calendar YTD, Malaysia’s TIV is still down 19% YoY at 173.4k units vs 213.5k units last year. This is tracking well behind MAA’s full year target of 650k units, making up only 27% of the target.
Gaining market share no longer good enough. YTD, MQ Research have seen plenty of market share winners, led by Mazda (+89bps), Honda (+82bps) and BMW (+57bps). However, with the overall pie shrinking, only Mazda and BMW have been able to see through YoY unit growth YTD. Mazda saw 4.8k units sold YTD, vs 4.1k over the same period last year. BMW on the other hand sold 35% more cars YTD with 2.5k units registered. The biggest losers were Toyota, down 36% YTD and Ford, down 48% YTD. It is also worth mentioning that UMW-Toyota (part of UMW Holdings) recently announced that it was revising down its sales target to 80k units from 87k units on the back of a generally weaker consumer sentiment.
Read across to Berjaya Auto: positive. Between May 2015 to April 2016 (equivalent to Berjaya Auto’s FY16E), there were 15.1k units of new Mazda cars registered in Malaysia, based on MAA’s data. While there tends to be some discrepancies between Berjaya Auto’s actual sales number vs MAA’s numbers, the 15.1k units is 97% of MQ Research’s full year assumption of 15.5k units for FY16E, which should be taken positively.
Honda unsurprisingly held on to the top spot in non-national marquee with 14.3% market share YTD. With decent April sales, Toyota reclaimed the #2 spot with an 8.2% market share, just ahead of Nissan’s 7.9% market share. From an absolute unit perspective however, all three brands are still down between 14-36% YTD.
Outlook
MQ Research reiterates an Outperform recommendation on Berjaya Auto. The stock trades at 11.4x 2017E PER with a 4.8% dividend yield providing downside protection, at a discount to its local and SEA peers who are trading at a mid-teens PER.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
healme
292 posts
Posted by healme > 2016-05-18 08:13 | Report Abuse
buying......