LEMBAGA TABUNG ANGKATAN TENTERA (a substantial shareholder) disposed 2,895,000 shares on 25-Apr-2022.
Question : Why cant they dispose at higher price? Why cannot see Bplant price up more than 1.20? Why everytime reaches 1.20....must throw until 1.1+? Why Why Why? So desperate meh? LOL ..... Dispose at higher price = good for everybody ma? No? Math failed ka? haha
As I said before, there are certain groups of investors who are bearish on CPO price outlook and they are not up to date as to what is happening in the edible oil market nowadays. Just look at how many local analysts who are bearish on CPO price, most projecting an average CPO price of just RM4,000-4,200/t for 2022, ridiculous. LTAT has been ill-advised by these people without realising that Bplant is so so much under-valued.
Analysts have repeatedly wrong in their prediction on CPO price since last year but unfortunately investors, as usual choose to refer to analysts before they invest. Just see what happen to tech stocks today.
Sifu, pls see the date disposal, it happens this Monday whn the price as high as 1.25, most likely they disposed at 1.21-1.22 that day. Taking profit a few millions out of 1.5 billion shares is immaterial for LTAT
Jun, regardless of Indonesia restriction, there are indeed shortage in edible oil, that is real. On Indonesia export ban, pls read what’s the proportion of RBD olein export vs total palm oil export n let me know if it is still fake news?
hahaha!! sifu brianklc, please include the "ImLearningFrom" in front of the "sifu" coz that will be more accurate. hahaha..later ada misunderstanding that im sifu... susah .. hahahaa yes yes agree with u... tapi if they dont sell... then maybe price goes higher? just guessing ya... because if they always do like that... who dare buy more to push price higher oh...
Sifu, pls see the date disposal, it happens this Monday whn the price as high as 1.25, most likely they disposed at 1.21-1.22 that day. Taking profit a few millions out of 1.5 billion shares is immaterial for LTAT
Most of the local plantation writers & analysis covering the sector are key board writers repeating past statistical models. You can see all this people{s} attending palm oil conference on the side lines asking planter's tips and waiting for experienced overseas speakers giving their views on our palm oil outlook. Thomas Mielke, James Fry, Dorab Mistry are some of the more prominent overseas based speaker's which our analysts looked in awe for their views. USDA agricultural report is a respectable & comprehensive report and analysis on current weather, planting trends, expected yields and demand & consumption. Overseas based analyst on soft commodities have already revised upwards their price projection of CPO to between 6,000 {FH 22} and 5,000 {LH 22}. Citing SBO premium of USD 200 per tonne over palm oil { meaning CPO is cheapest available alternative} Yet our local analyst is still netrual on the palm oil sector. I guess they have missed out the palm oil rally and continue sit it out again. PIVB is overweight and their price forecast is at $4.300. Cimb is netrual on the sector and their price forecast is at 4,100. Look at how the 2 differ in their recommendations. First one overweight at $4,300.Second one neutral at 4,100. First 4 mths { Jan - Apr} average recorded CPO Jan 5,354 per tonne Feb 5,930 per tonne Mar 6,867per tonne Apr 6,900 per tonne
During Monday, I sort of caught them doing the disposal… tht time lots of ppl buying, so they dispose at buyers price instead of queuing the sales and scared ppl off… agree with u best they don’t sell… but they also need to take profit…
brianklc... yaya... i saw ur comment that day... and i didnt get to sell coz i came in late. lol... no choice la... now wait all rich ppl come back from raya before the coming wave... hehe... now continue collect collect.... cheers bro...
@ImLearningFromSifu today sure red because last night US stock markets fall very deep. Investors worry about the big tech's earning reports especially FB will release their earning reports tomorrow morning. AAPL will release earning reports on Friday morning. Second thing to worry of course is still the Fed rate hikes matter. The third thing to worry is Russia ban two Europe countries to export their crude oil.
Yday there was an article from theedge I think saying that with the storage that Indonesia has, total export ban can only sustain for 1 month max, BUT since it’s only for RBD olein, it takes months to fill up all the storage…
When more data comes out the "Shortfall" due to Indonsia BAN of Cooking Oil, etc ........ Countries STILL have to buy from Malaysia. Demand for PO will still be there. Less due to high price.
To sum up the whole Indonesia sequence of events:- Jan 22- Set DMO @ 20%, export levy USD375 Feb 22- Set DMO @ 30%, export levy USD375 Mar 22- Remove DMO, increase export levy to USD675 Apr 22- Export ban on RBD Olein, export levy maintain at USD675
And this current policy will only be reviewed when cooking oil price drop from 26k rupiah per litre to 14k rupiah per litre. Erm, u can only guess how long this ban will last…
Important key for small investor like me, don't believe too much some people comment /article saying bplant should worth how high value than currently share price. If really got the big gap different from currently share price, all big shark will know and buy early,we would not got chance to buy cheapest. Also don't believe too much who said may got merge or take over by other big big company because they are not the people magnament the company. But we small investor can do some homework and judgement ourselves, isn't this share will slowly slowly up, if answer is yes, then can buy. Remember setting your earnings target and setting your risk how much you can lost. I believe bplant can higher than today price when time close to announce qtr report in May. Question is how high that time. No people can buy lower and sell higher, if can, maybe is your luck but would not every time good luck. Hope everyone can earn some money for Raya.
Investment, agree with u. Being a company with no going concern issues, u can’t expect a plantation company to keep selling land. Landbank needs to be replenished/production needs to be boosted to sustain future profitability. Hence pls look at fundamental/underlying performance. Durian runtuh land sales/privatisation can only be a bonus.
If a company got potential, thn keep for long term. I personally don’t like a company that gambles coz it distorts the underlying performance n sometimes gambles profit away. Hence pls do research to see if the past “realised CPO price” of plantation counter deviates significantly vs average CPO price for the quarter.
Tomorrow definitely another spike on all the malaysian based plantation counters. The Indonesia PO ban is across the board. Crude and refined oil. So, the net widens. Please see the latest TheEdge news.
Yesterday Economic minister says limited crude palm oil shipment allowed. Today Minister quickly reversed his decision to follow Jokowi announcement. Shippers getting their custom clearance on or before 27/4 can ship their exports
I m not CPO expert, but I kind of know why they wanna have total ban, coz some will just keep CPO as it is to export out instead of turn it into RBD n being forced to sell as end product at lower margin…
Do remember that Indonesia has 340,000,000 population. Riots , Unrest, demonstrations, etc has erupted in Indonesia because FOOD prices has gone up tremendously. One major cause is Cooking Oil shortages . Remember that about ~200,000,000 people in Indonesia survive with just sufficient $$$ and little savings ( 2 years of Covid lockdown). Now .... Imagine these people going on RIOTS ??? Indonesia Govn is trying to "FORCE" the plantations, refineries , traders, etc to "FLOOD" the Indo market with "Cheap Cooking oil" . Else they cannot "EXPORT" it out and make a HANDSOME profit. ..Of course ..Malaysia says ..."BIG THANK YOU" !!!
Indonesia has already stated ..... There is NOT enough storage for the CPO. Another 1 to 2 months of normal CPO production .. means that CPOhas NO more storage. So ... Let the FFB ROT on the palm oil trees ? Of course Plantations will be caught with a BIG dilema . Harvest and make more COOKING Oil to "Flood" Indonesia market ? Will Traders and big Companies ..Now Release their stockpile into the market...Thus Flooding Indonesia with Cheap Cooking oil ? If they do not........ The Plantations MAY do it from their STOCKPILE as Plantations need the STORAGE TANKS to store New CPO. ...... Going to get Interesting in the PO business in Indonesia in the coming WEEKS ....
Wrong question. If Monday happens u going to sell or miss the opportunity to sell the last time.
For me, money is hand is better than money on paper. You can always buy back. ———————————— brianklc Pls stay calm, don’t let Monday repeat itself…. 3 hours ago
Certain congolemerates are accused by the Indonesia! Authorities and under investigation for hoarding cooking oil and misusing the export permits. Not the upstream planters who sells the crude palm oil to the integrated downstream players. Typically an individual oil mill has a storage tank's space capacity of between 80 - 90 days of the Mill's daily production { excluding external tank space at the ports or warehouse} Giants congolemerates like the Salim group and Astra and their distribution arm has denied the accusation.
Certain companies are accused of misusing and falsifying their export quotas and permits. Wilmar group, Musim Mas and Permata Hijau group all have denied the allegations
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ImLearningFromSifu
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Posted by ImLearningFromSifu > 2022-04-27 13:16 | Report Abuse
LEMBAGA TABUNG ANGKATAN TENTERA (a substantial shareholder) disposed 2,895,000 shares on 25-Apr-2022.
Question : Why cant they dispose at higher price? Why cannot see Bplant price up more than 1.20? Why everytime reaches 1.20....must throw until 1.1+? Why Why Why? So desperate meh? LOL .....
Dispose at higher price = good for everybody ma? No? Math failed ka? haha