@Explorer2, good that you've done some homework. I am taking the lazy way out. Taking analysts earlier consensus of RM52m for FY16 (current consensus is much higher, but to be safe I am taking old projections so that it factors in surprises such as those you have highlighted). And give a PE (15x) that is slightly below Ikhmas (15.7x) and Pintaras (17x), due to the lower dividend yield. This gives me a TP of RM1.46, very near to your RM1.50.
Also, despite the reduction in directors holdings, I view it positively because it is a sale to institutional buyers, and not open market disposal. It gives me two levels of comfort, firstly, that the directors are knowledgeable in managing perception, are professional and not doing open market sell off, and secondly, my investment is liked by some of the best fund managers in town.
@qsentral @hotmama, I do not know your strategies but sounds like you might be short term traders. Our approach are very different. I cannot to vouch that my analysis works for your strategies, but wish you all the best.
@qsentral, lovely, and all the best. I'll check back only end of the week and reply your comments then if any. Not my style to scrutinize daily fluctuations. Meanwhile, what are you looking at with much more upside to go?
@loveygramps, Agreed on not obsessing with daily movements as it may impair judgment. I'm quite keen on Gadang given their numbers and growth but the current movement is curious. Private placement tactics maybe....
Bought more at RM1.26 yesterday due to the irrational correction, will sell off the same number of shares at RM1.32. Core holdings remain untouched until next TP of RM1.46.
@kelvin12, I was referring to additional side trading to earn more only. My core holdings still remain untouched with RM1.46 TP. That is one strategy to beat the "Mr Market".
Looks like some early buying interest today? For my trading portion, have revised selling TP upward from 1.32 to 1.35 instead to lock in 6% net gain (cost 1.26). Core holdings remain the same with longer term TP of RM1.46
@muscle @winpluswin, no difference in PE or net profit. They just change the pegged year from 2016 to 2017. It may trick small investors, but funds will know there's no difference. But overall, still a positive development, good buying interest today too.
I noted, sometimes econpile move after ikhmas moving up... let us see now... target price short term 1.40... within a week should be... just my little opinion
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
loveygramps
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Posted by loveygramps > 2016-04-12 16:27 | Report Abuse
@Explorer2, good that you've done some homework. I am taking the lazy way out. Taking analysts earlier consensus of RM52m for FY16 (current consensus is much higher, but to be safe I am taking old projections so that it factors in surprises such as those you have highlighted). And give a PE (15x) that is slightly below Ikhmas (15.7x) and Pintaras (17x), due to the lower dividend yield. This gives me a TP of RM1.46, very near to your RM1.50.
Also, despite the reduction in directors holdings, I view it positively because it is a sale to institutional buyers, and not open market disposal. It gives me two levels of comfort, firstly, that the directors are knowledgeable in managing perception, are professional and not doing open market sell off, and secondly, my investment is liked by some of the best fund managers in town.