Unlike traders who follow charts to make buy and sell decisions, value investors, after buying shares, seldom sell in the short-term. This is especially true for those following quality investing; they invest in great and sustainable businesses for the long run to let compounding does it magic, and hardly sell their shares as it is not easy to find another quality stock to replace it for the long haul.
One of the biggest mistakes or wrong reason to sell a stock is boredom. Don’t be a bumble bee buzzing around from one position to the next. However, what is bought must eventually be sold.
Those people relying on charts use technical signals to make market timing on selling. Some of these signals include a loss of momentum, reaching an overbought state basing on relative strength indicator, or suffering a breakdown on the stock chart. Price targets are set based on price ceilings that the market has defined in the past. However, few chartists have been successful in consistently selling at the right timing following those technical sell signals.
For value investors, buying a stock at the right price is vital, as your return depends on the price you pay. However, without selling, your gain is only a number and you won’t realize the “real” profits. In fact, for most stocks, if you don't sell at the appropriate time, the benefits of proper buying disappear. There are a few good reasons to sell a stock.
A stock should be sold to realize profit if the share price has risen rapidly above its perceived intrinsic value. This is especially true for cyclical stocks which have risen too much in price during their up cycles. If we don’t sell at their high prices, we may not see the profit later when the down cycle comes as the good time may not be sustainable. The question is, by how much above? For this, I will present my opinion in a coming article.
A stock should also be sold if we discover that we have made a serious mistake in our investment thesis for the stock. We have discovered some cockroaches hiding in the closet. We sell even though we have made a loss in the stock.
We should also sell the stock if later, there is a fundamental change for the worse of the business, something we did not see or anticipated in our previous analysis. In other words, the story has changed. This doesn’t mean we should sell the stock due to the drop of its stock price or reduced company’s earnings in a quarter or two, whereas the long-term fundamentals have not changed.
I often sell a stock when I sense signs of management incompetence or unethical and untrustworthy behaviour. Honesty and credibility of the management is very important, for if they are not, not matter how good is the business and how much the company will earn, as a minority shareholder, they won’t share the fruits of success of the company with us.
As a retail investor, our investment capitals are limited. If we have found a better stock which may provide better return, we may have to sell the existing stock for some proceeds to invest in the better stock with better future. It is the opportunity cost we are weighing on.
In a bull market when stock price goes up a lot and we find that we now have too many stocks in our asset class, we may need to sell some stocks to re-balance our asset allocation as a good practice.
Of course, sometimes we may need money such as starting a business or buying a home, hopefully not for an expensive holiday overseas, we may have to sell the stocks we have.
*GDB Holdings (GDB MK, NOT RATED, FV: MYR1.50)* _Quality Contractor For Quality Developers_ Trading Idea MYR1.50 FV based on 10x P/E. We like GDB Holdings for its strong track record in the high-rise construction segment and solid balance sheet. The company’s current construction projects are mostly mid- to high-end property projects by many reputable developers in the market, and the timely payments by these clients have ensured its healthy cash flow. With the latest contract win of MYR1.25bn, we expect earnings to triple in FY21F, as construction works are allowed to continue under MCO 2.0. FY21F dividend yield is attractive at c.6%.
Disclaimer: This message is for information purposes only. Reproduction or dissemination to third party is prohibited. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor shall it be construed as an offer/solicitation or recommendation to buy/sell any stocks. Investors should make their own informed decisions by consulting your own independent adviser(s) before investing. We accept no responsibility or liability for loss or damage that may arise from the reliance of this message. For the full information regarding the stocks mentioned herein please refer to the relevant websites
The following is an extract I have taken out from some of my readings. I have read such comments many times but I wonder how many of us can really do this! This include myself that sometime do the silly thing.
1) We will never know when exactly a stock will shoot up or reach that inflection point we have been waiting for. All we can do is position ourselves in stocks that we find of value – be it growth, turnaround, or cyclical companies. 2) After we buy a particular stock, it may go down further, which is okay as long as we are eventually right in our thesis for the company, we will make a profit. Stocks do not go on a straight line up. Truly, having a long-term time horizon is one of the key competitive advantages any investor could ever have. Remember, we are owning a stake in a business, so we should act like a business owner – not a stock trader.
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Posted by Simnchong > 2020-12-31 18:17 | Report Abuse
Hi William, any announcement for director dispose off Market?