Posted by nagasaran93 > 2021-10-15 12:17 | Report Abuse

I just re-enter. =) let's huat chay!

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-15 12:25 | Report Abuse

Gona be a nice run....

Posted by sims > 2021-10-15 13:01 | Report Abuse

RECODA visit OCIM, SAKURA FERROALLOY AND PERTAMA FERROALLOY.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6854378267529613312?ts=1634273950547&trk=article_share_wechat

Posted by stock101 > 2021-10-15 14:43 | Report Abuse

China ferrosilicon index up almost 2 %
https://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/SF0.shtml

Posted by sims > 2021-10-15 15:15 | Report Abuse

can share the data here? the link seem like trojan horse side, lead to suspicious site

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-15 15:19 | Report Abuse

Sims, the link is okay for me! I am using the same futures for monitoring as well

Posted by sims > 2021-10-15 15:29 | Report Abuse

weird, i got this instead.
<504 Gateway Time-out
nginx/1.17.8>

Posted by amateurinvestor > 2021-10-15 17:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Damien88, may I know what is the latest TP by UOBKH and when was that given? thanks.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-15 17:37 | Report Abuse

Latest TP is RM 4.21 (14 Oct)

Posted by TGbee > 2021-10-15 17:38 | Report Abuse

http://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021.10.14-UOBKH_Favourable-Supply-Demand-Dynamics-to-Support-Ferroalloy-Prices.pdf

Posted by sims > 2021-10-16 07:06 | Report Abuse

do anticipate that Qr might be out on 25 Oct, based on 2018. happy weekend.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-16 09:03 | Report Abuse

stephen chow said money is just above our head, we jist need a chair to grab it down.

the chair here mean an idea, which required to materialize it.

OMH cannot just left the 4 furnace idle like that.
manpower or specialist can always secure woth sufficient money offer.

silicon metal is at all time high, even an outsider like me keep wonder, how long OMH going to let this opportunity window slip away.

just kick start the idle furnace, and produce something first.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-16 12:59 | Report Abuse

Go for gold loh!

Posted by amateurinvestor > 2021-10-16 15:57 | Report Abuse

Thanks Damien88

Posted by sims > 2021-10-16 17:16 | Report Abuse

being creative.

of coz poaching speciliast from sakura or pertama ferroalloy would be the fastest way.

but i see no harm in "borrow" specialist from neighbor peers, through open communication and contract based manpower (and p n c term), just to kick start the idle furnaces.

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-18 08:34 | Report Abuse

RnR time.......

Posted by sims > 2021-10-18 08:36 | Report Abuse

OMH.ASX open 1.24, high 1.26, low 1.235.
Current 1.26 (+3.28%) delayed quote

Posted by sims > 2021-10-18 08:38 | Report Abuse

OMH.ASX open 1.24, high 1.265, low 1.235.
Current 1.265 (+3.69%) delayed quote

Posted by sims > 2021-10-18 08:58 | Report Abuse

OMH.ASX open 1.24, high 1.275, low 1.235.
Current 1.275 (+4.51%) delayed quote

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 09:03 | Report Abuse

UOBKH TP of RM4 was too conservative on the following:

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 09:04 | Report Abuse

1. Assumed Alloy Prices too conservative
- UOBKH uses Ferroalloy prices US$2,000 (2021), US$1,900 (2022), US$1,700 and MnSi of US$1,500 (2021), US$1,400 (2022) and US$1,300 (2023)
- FeSi prices is now above US$4,000 and MnSi is above US$2,500
- These prices are now being contracted for 1Q2022 is above US$4,000
- Prices are expected to stay firm or even higher in light of current global energy crunch and China control on pollution/climate target commitment.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 09:04 | Report Abuse

2. Forward PE of only 7-8x

- Market PE should be around 20-25x under current bull market for commodities/Industrial material sector
- This is way below its peers like PMetal (PE 20-40x), Lynas (PE 40x), Ferroglobe (PE negative yet market cap US$1.5b)

Posted by sims > 2021-10-18 09:10 | Report Abuse

Q3 performance will assist to anticipate Q4 result.
i already looking forward for sp Aus 2 dollar by end of 2021 result

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 09:13 | Report Abuse

UOBKH would have to keep re-adjusting it’s TP as it now takes just days/weeks to hit each TP being set.

Posted by JConnor > 2021-10-18 09:18 | Report Abuse

The current pricing of ferrosilicon itself can carry this company forward... Also with the huge advantage compared to the other manufacturers with the hydroelectric power they are using...keeps cost down and margins high.

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-18 10:08 | Report Abuse

Price seem like normalized at RM3.90 now, time to collect more!!

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 10:30 | Report Abuse

Usually the buying up comes in the afternoon session

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-18 11:16 | Report Abuse

Exactly! But last Friday they came in earlier during morning time.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 11:52 | Report Abuse

“OMH poised for bumper earnings” - The Star (18 Oct)

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-18 11:58 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/10/18/om-holdings-poised-for-bumper-earnings

Posted by sims > 2021-10-18 13:06 | Report Abuse

well...here go the publicity.
LU in the afternoon perhap?

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-18 14:04 | Report Abuse

FeSi market outlook published by Fastmarket this week
China
• The ferro silicon price in China narrowed downward following a correction of a previous rally. But market sentiment remained quite positive since Qinghai issued an orderly electricity usage plan. This said that electricity usage can be divided into four levels, each corresponding to a different proportion of power cuts. The subsequent proportion of power supply will be adjusted in real time according to the power deficit at the time.
• The price went downward to a rational level mainly because the previous panic in the market had cleared by the time Qinghai announced its power cuts plan. Electricity fees will be raised by 20-30% among ferro-alloys producers.
• Considering the lessening of steel production cuts, along with the news that 50% of ferro-alloys producers were operating again in Fugu, in Shaanxi province, the industry was adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
• Overall supply was still tight since many producers have full order books. Coupled with the recent bullish ferro-silicon futures market, this can support the high price.

Europe
• European prices were steady in the week to October 15, consolidating a jump of almost 38% the week before, with deals reported within the current range.
• The market was well supported in the near term and may push higher again, with domestic availability tight and replacement material hard and expensive to source.
• There have been no signs of imports from traditional suppliers such as Brazil and Malaysia due to strong domestic and regional markets in the Americas and Asia.
• Additionally, there was reduced production in Europe this year, and European steel production was running at close to capacity.
• Acute shortages in container availability worldwide, bottlenecks at international ports, surging energy costs and record high freight rates were all seen as supporting bulk alloys prices in the near term.

United States
• The US ferro-silicon market continued its precipitous rise this week, continuing to follow the global markets upward.
• Available US stocks remained minimal, helping to drive pricing upward.
• Production cutbacks and shipping difficulties have exacerbated the tight supply situation in the US.
• Market participants thought that prices would continue to run upward in the near term given the current global market price levels and supply situation.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-19 16:19 | Report Abuse

"It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. "

by George Soros

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:05 | Report Abuse

Both FeSi and MnSi China futures up 6-7% yesterday

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:08 | Report Abuse

Current Ferroalloy prices translates to average GPM of US$1,700-1,800 /ton. OMH produces 380k ton currently at 75% capacity. It will produce 500k ton in 2022 when Malaysia opens its border in Dec 21.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:10 | Report Abuse

That means the GPM will be about US$660m at 75% capacity and US$875m at 100% capacity

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:11 | Report Abuse

The potential profit will exceed the profits of PMetal, Lynas, Ferroglobe all combined

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:13 | Report Abuse

Yet the market cap for PMetal (RM 49b)is 17x bigger than OMH (RM2.9b)

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:14 | Report Abuse

Lynas (RM 20b) is 7x bigger than OMH

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 09:15 | Report Abuse

Ferroglobe (loss making) (RM6b) is 2x bigger than OMH

Posted by blazer999 > 2021-10-20 09:55 | Report Abuse

OMH making earning from FeSi and SiMn business. Thanks to China and India.. LOL

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 10:37 | Report Abuse

It appears that short seller pushing down to try and cover its position below RM 3.80

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 10:38 | Report Abuse

Euroz Australia published another report with TP at A$1.37 (RM4.24) Oct 5

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-20 10:40 | Report Abuse

It is due to the China Power/Coal policy published last night. Time for us to collect more during this low price.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 10:41 | Report Abuse

One interesting point is that If they use current alloy prices of US$4,150/ton, the estimated EbItda is A$520m for FYE 2022 and A$840 post expansion. And the spot valuation is A$5.25 / share

Posted by nagasaran93 > 2021-10-20 10:43 | Report Abuse

Is RM3.8 considered chasing high EP at high risk for now?

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 10:43 | Report Abuse

https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021.10.07-Euroz-Report_Weekly-Informer_07Oct21-Extracts.pdf

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 10:45 | Report Abuse

If you have 3-6month timeline, it’s safe level to enter.

Posted by VenFx > 2021-10-20 10:46 | Report Abuse

sailing smoothly

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-20 10:46 | Report Abuse

The best result for OMH will come in 1H2022 when the high alloy prices are being fully reflected. And it will be released end Aug 22