Japan’s descent into stagnation is an infamous economic tale known around the world. But at its start, in the early 1990s, it wasn’t abundantly clear what was happening to what was then the world’s No. 2 economy.
Much to the frustration of Japan’s Ministry of Finance, there was a coterie of keen financial analysts who warned that the country’s debt problem was a whole lot worse than advertised, and that economic growth wasn’t going to magically make it go away.
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66 comment(s).Last comment by Jefftan123 2024-01-20 22:50
China will continue to produce stuffs that benefit the world and increasing with own brands and own technology.. that is how China escapes from the middle income trap
China’s benchmark 10-year government bond yields this week approached the modern record low of under 2.5%—hit during the initial Covid-19 crisis. In Japan’s case, 10-year yields sank through 2.5% in 1997 and never looked back.
Li argues that there’s a three-part solution for China’s local debtload, which his analysis showed amounted to 88% of gross domestic product as of 2020. That’s notably larger than previous estimates by the International Monetary Fund. (It would have been all the bigger in Li’s worst-case estimate of $14 trillion worth of debt.)
China debts. City debts............... people can see where the money go to, people can touch it, benefit from it.
America debts...............GDP 10 trillion usd at 2000 to 24 trillion now, US Federal debts at 34 trillion usd now, not even counting city debts....where did the money go? most of it disappeared into wars of all sorts. people benefit from any of that?
First would be to have the central government simply take over part of the local authorities’ obligations. There have been signs in recent months that President Xi Jinping’s team is indeed thinking along these lines, though policymakers in Beijing have long sought to maintain the central government’s relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio.
Li’s second step is to extend the duration of debt, something that is under way through a variety of swap programs—some at the local level and some involving the central bank.
The third component, however, would require a significant ideological shift. That would involve selling off state assets. In Japan, that was one component of the eventual solution to its own bad-debt mountain under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, in the years before the global financial crisis. (A policy option Tokyo is looking at again.)
But far from embracing privatization, Xi’s regime has tilted instead toward elevating the role of the state. It seems hard to envision a dose of 1980s Thatcherism to reduce debt and energize the private sector.
Which all magnifies the risk of a dynamic in China’s financial system that limits the economy’s potential in coming years.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by Jefftan123 > 2024-01-18 13:48 | Report Abuse
Japan’s descent into stagnation is an infamous economic tale known around the world. But at its start, in the early 1990s, it wasn’t abundantly clear what was happening to what was then the world’s No. 2 economy. Much to the frustration of Japan’s Ministry of Finance, there was a coterie of keen financial analysts who warned that the country’s debt problem was a whole lot worse than advertised, and that economic growth wasn’t going to magically make it go away.