投资理财记事本

BURSA (搏杀)下个季度 “最保守” 的业绩预测

InvestMY
Publish date: Sat, 30 May 2020, 05:27 AM
InvestMY
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I would like to honestly and fairly share my view with you. Together we learn n together we grow.

BURSA的收入来源分为8个部分:

  1. Total Securities Trading Revenue
  2. Total Derivatives Trading Revenue
  3. Bursa Suq AL-Sila Trading Fees
  4. Listing and Issuer services
  5. Depository Services
  6. Market data
  7. Member services and connectivity
  8. Other Income

换言之只要我们把这8个数目加起来就是BURSA下个季度的总收入。首先我们来计算BURSA最重要的收入来源即是 Total Securities Trading Revenue。4月至6月一共有59天交易日,而从4月1日截至5月29日共38天的总成交值为128billion。假设保守估计接下来21天的交易日维持在平均每日4billion的成交值,那么下个季度的成交值将是大约为212billion (128billion + 84 billion)。倘若以过去八个季度为基础,即平均每1000交易值的收入为RM0.45,下个季度的Total securities trading revenue将会是 95.4 Million. (212billion x 0.00045)

           第二部分是Total Derivatives Trading Revenue。同样以BURSA官方网站的过去38天的平均交易量为基础,预测下个季度的总衍生产品合约交易量为4,500,000。倘若以过去八个季度为基础,平均每1000合约的交易收入为RM5.4,下个季度的Total Derivatives Trading Revenue将是24.3 Million。

                Bursa Suq AL-Sila Trading Fees过去的收入都维持在2.9 Million 至 4.1 Million,这里我同样以8个季度的平均值为基础,数目为 3.5 Million。

                Listing and Issuer Services 的收入取决于这个季度新的IPO, 可是由于疫情的关系导致4月至6月我们可以发现到几乎没有新的IPO,所以我们拿过去的平均收入的4分之一,即是3.4 Million。

                Depository Services, Market data, member services and connectivity 和 Other income 由于过去的数目变动都不大,所以我同样以过去8个季度的平均值为基础,收入分别为10.5 Million, 9.5 Million, 5.4 Million与5.2 Million。

                综上所述我们可以取得下个季度大约的Revenue ( 95.4m + 24.3m + 3.5m + 3.4m + 10.5m + 9.5m + 5.4m + 5.2m) = 157.2 Million

                取得Revenue的数字后,我们简单的用这个数字来计算下个季度的Net Profit(净收入)。假设Revenue为157.2 Million,我们同样以过去的费用平均值来计算并减去所有的费用,那么Net Profit (净收入)将会是68 Million。详情可以看我附上的预估损益表。

这个计算方式是以最保守的估计即接下来21天的平均交易值为4billion, 而我使用的平均每一千交易值的收入也是采过去八个季度的平均值即RM0.45,并且我也大大减低了Listing and issuer services这一块的收入。倘若 Listing and issuer services的收入出乎我意料并没受到多大影响,而每一千交易值的收入也高于过去的平均值,再加上衍生产品和securities的平均交易量都大于我的预测的话,那么下个季度的Net Profit是极有可能大于83million的。简单地说接下来21天的的交易日投资者只要注意每日交易值是否超过4billion,只要超过的话下个季度的业绩就不用担心了,问题只是成长多少而已。

 

2Q2020 (预测)

 

('000)

Total Securities Trading Revenue

95,400

Total Derivatives Trading Revenue

24,300

Bursa Suq AL-Sila Trading Fees

3,500

Listing and Issuer services

3,400

Depository Services

10,500

Market data

9,500

Member services and connectivity

5,400

Operating Revenue

152,000

Other income

5,221

 

157,221

Staff costs

-35,000

Depreciation and amortisation

            -5,562

Other operating expenses

-24,000

Profit from Operation

92,659

Finance Costs

   -133

Profit before Tax

92,526

Income tax expense

-24,000

Profit for the Period

68,526

 

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1 person likes this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

CatchThe Bull

What is your target price or EPS for next quarter?
My estimation is 9.6 base on min 0.08EPS for next 4Q20

2020-06-18 12:22

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