Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - HOMERIZ

 

Dear valued members,            
             
You should be realistic about your goals.           
             
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter 
Lynch             
             
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is 
neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or 
financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours      
             
Homeriz            
             
My trading plan             
I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a gap up on 29/10/2013.    
Major resistance is 0.61.            
Major support is 0.50 and 0.465.             
Target price = 1.20             
Margin of safety = 52% (0.57)            
Potential profit gain = 110% (0.57)            
Cut loss at 0.465 = 16%             
Risk reward ratio at 0.465 cut loss = 1 : 7.2           
             
Feng Shui element = Wood            
             
Buy Homeriz at 0.555 (5/12/2013).             
             
Homeriz IV Calculation            
        Fundamental Rating    
Total Net Profit Years   3/3   91.67%  
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years   3/3        
Total Dividend Payout Years   3/3   Current Price     
Total Positive free Cash flow Year   2/3   0.57  
    11/12        
        Growth%    
10 Years Average Turn Over     101014      
Latest 4 quarters     112905 11.77%    
             
10 Years Average Net Profit     15189      
Latest 4 quarters     15118 -0.47%    
          Proj  
  2011 2012 2013 Growth% 2014 Growth%
EPS (Cent) 5.40 7.35 7.56 2.86% 14.0 85.19%
PER 10.56 7.76 7.54 2.78% 4.07 46.00%
NTA 0.31 0.36 0.41 13.89% 0.50 21.95%
Net Profit 10812 14700 15118 2.84% 27800 83.89%
Equity  62886 72785 81403 11.84% 91041 11.84%
ROE 19.19% 20.20% 18.57% -8.06% 30.54% 64.42%
Dividend 0.6 3 1 -66.67%    
Free cash flow -4427 19083        
             
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)            
Average Return History   -3.84%        
3 yrs Return   5.22%        
          Proj  
Method 1   2013     2014  
EPS   0.08     0.14  
g   10.00     10.00  
Y   7.0     7.0  
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y   1.12     2.07  
Current price   0.57     0.57  
Margin of Safety   48.96%     72.44%  
Potential gain   95.92%     262.81%  
             
Method 2            
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator            
Discount rate    12.00%     12.00%  
EPS   0.08     0.14  
Earning expected to grow (annually)   10.0     10.0  
for the next (? Years)   3.0     3.0  
before leveling off to an annual growth    3.00     3.00  
Calculate Stock Value per share   1.10     1.92  
Current price   0.57     0.57  
Margin of Safety   48.18%     70.31%  
Potential gain   92.98%     236.84%  
             
             
Method 3            
ROE   18.57%     30.54%  
Rr   8.00%     8.00%  
NTA   0.41     0.50  
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA   0.95     1.91  
Current Price   0.57     0.57  
Margin of Safety   40.11%     70.13%  
Potential gain   66.98%     234.82%  
             
Method 4            
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5            
EPS   0.08     0.14  
Total equity   81403     91041  
Number of shares   200000     200000  
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5   0.83     1.20 Target price
Current price   0.57     0.57  
Margin of Safety   31.50%     52.40%  
Potential gain   45.98%     110.08%  
             
Thank you.            
Ooi Teik Bee            

 

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5 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments

hepitrade

MR OTB, among all counters u recommend, HOMERIZ is the most making money? Tq

2013-12-06 22:36

AyamTua

TP1: 90cent
TP2: $1.00

2013-12-07 03:36

Duitlai

Mr Ooi tqvm

2013-12-07 10:30

andyhard

Hi Mr OOi,

May I knowwhy you so optimistics with the earning next year for Home? It is double up on earnings.

2013-12-07 12:36

Ooi Teik Bee

I just base on last quarter result. I will follow up whether next quarter result will be the same or not.
Please note that Latitud and Tguan also show the same good result, hence I am optimistic.
Thank you.

2013-12-07 12:49

andyhard

I see..Thanks..BTW, for furniture, the result is good during 2H compared to 1H...Home does not show consistent result across quarter..But, the result is best during Q4.

2013-12-07 13:18

mmk79

Thanks for sharing OTB

2013-12-07 16:24

nokenzo

Hi Mr Ooi TB, obliged if you could kindly enlighten me what is g in your calculation and how you arrive at g in your method 1,and how do you calculate stock value per share in method 2, and in method 4 the formula, (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5, what is 22.5 and 0.5. I notice, these two figure are fixed in all your calculation.Thanking you in advance.

2013-12-07 19:27

Ooi Teik Bee

Yes. They are formulae to calculate IV of a stock. g is the return of investment you expect. BLR is around 6%, I put g = 7, slightly higher than BLR.
Please go back to Kcchongnz post to find out. I copy from there.
Thank you.

2013-12-07 21:02

nokenzo

Thanks Mr Ooi TB. How do you calculate stock value per share in method 2?

2013-12-07 22:54

nokenzo

Sorry Mr Ooi TB, I think you mean y=7 which I understand, g has different value for different counters viz: Puncak-WB g=12.17, Latitud g=15.00, Tguan g=15.39, Hevea g=10.00, Homeriz g=10.00, Insas g=21.71, WTK g=2.00, Caely g=16.01, in your calculation.Thanking you in advance for enlightening me.

2013-12-07 23:09

Ooi Teik Bee

Post removed.Why?

2013-12-07 23:52

nokenzo

Thank you Mr Ooi for for unselfish contribution. You remind me of Mr KC Chong NZ. He is exactly like you.Perhaps I need to attend your lecture to understand further.

2013-12-08 00:01

Rose

Dear bro Ooi, I am keen to learn Ta , can you please recommend a good book for me ?
Tq.

2013-12-08 07:51

hepitrade

me too, MR OTB, or any website that can learn TA? thanks

2013-12-08 08:14

Ooi Teik Bee

Posted by Rose > Dec 8, 2013 07:51 AM | Report Abuse

Dear bro Ooi, I am keen to learn Ta , can you please recommend a good book for me ?

Posted by hepitrade > Dec 8, 2013 08:14 AM | Report Abuse

me too, MR OTB, or any website that can learn TA? thanks

Ans : FYI, I did not learn it through reading book. I attended many courses which is the fastest way to learn. I almost attended all technical courses in KL.
I read through > a million charts, I spend many hours a day to learn to read chart and do many back testing. I also learn it through experience as a remisier for the last 20 years.
Thank you.

2013-12-08 10:18

mmk79

OTB, i believe your clients must be happy to have such a hardworking remiser.

2013-12-08 14:33

andyhard

BTW, Mr OOi, Yesterday was a extremely high vol upthrust for Home, the retracement is coming 2 days is a good pick up?

2013-12-10 15:10

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