Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - TGUAN

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 06 Dec 2013, 10:25 PM
Tan KW
0 500,860
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)

Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp

TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Following Message

 

Dear valued members,            
             
You should be realistic about your goals.             
             
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter 
Lynch             
             
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is 
neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or 
financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours      
             
Tguan            
             
My trading plan             
I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a gap up on 27/11/2013.    
Major resistance is 2.18.            
Major support is 1.75, and 1.67.             
Target price = 3.56             
Margin of safety = 50% (1.78)            
Potential profit gain = 100% (1.78)            
Cut loss at 1.67 = 12%             
Risk reward ratio at 1.67 cut loss = 1 : 7.2             
             
Feng Shui element = Wood            
             
Buy Tguan at 1.90 (5/12/2013).             
             
Thong Guan IV Calculation            
        Fundamental Rating  
Total Net Profit Years   10/10   85.00%  
         
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years   9/10        
        Current Price  
Total Dividend Payout Years   10/10   1.78  
             
Total Positive free Cash flow Year   5/10        
    34/40        
      Growth %      
10 Years Average Turn Over                454,912 56.92%      
Current 4 Quarters                713,851        
             
10 Years Average Net Profit                  19,803 53.07%      
Current 4 Quarters                  30,312        
             
    2011 2012 2013 Growth  
EPS (Cent)   25.70 25.87 28.81 11.36%  
PE Ratio   6.93 6.88 6.18 10.20%  
NTA   2.31 2.49 2.68 7.63%  
Net Profit                  27,036          27,216       30,312 11.38%  
Equity                 242,089       261,759     285,417 9.04%  
ROE   11.17 10.40 10.62 2.12%  
Dividend   6 7   0.00%  
Free cash flow   -21,051 44,195      
             
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)            
Average Return History   6.25%        
3 yrs Return   22.45%        
             
Method 1            
EPS   0.29        
g, %   15.39        
Y   7.00        
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y   5.72        
Current price   1.78        
Margin of Safety   68.88%        
Potential gain   221.34%        
             
Method 2            
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator            
Discount rate    12.00%        
EPS   0.29        
Earning expected to grow (annually)   15.39        
for the next (? Years)   3.0        
before leveling off to an annual growth    3.00        
Calculate Stock Value per share   4.55        
Current price   1.78        
Margin of Safety   60.88%        
Potential gain   155.62%        
             
Method 3            
ROE   10.62%        
Rr, %   8.00%        
NTA   2.68        
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA   3.56 Target price      
Current Price   1.78        
Margin of Safety   49.97%        
Potential gain   99.88%        
             
Method 4            
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5            
EPS   0.29        
Total equity   285417        
Number of shares   105205        
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5   4.19        
Current price   1.78        
Margin of Safety   57.55%        
Potential gain   135.59%        
             
Thank you.            
Ooi Teik Bee            

 


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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

Ooi Teik Bee

TGUAN is moving. Best of luck.
Thank you.

2014-01-21 16:22

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