Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-12-13 18:32 | Report Abuse

This article sounds clever. Unfortunately, it is a bit too clever. The stock market does not reward people for playing too many tricks. Market is very efficient nowadays, with many intelligent people trying to outsmart each others. It is impossible to make correct decisions at pivotal moments. If it is not doable, then the concept of pivotal moment is meaningless

Best strategy is still buy and hold based on KYY concept of earning growth.

I have been in the market for many years but never have a consistent cut lost strategy. Sometime I cut sometime I don't. There is no fixed formula.

Posted by yfchong > 2016-12-13 18:33 | Report Abuse

Ha ha taiko icon8888 every time u bottom fishing u no need to use this king fu

Posted by Shellhouse > 2016-12-13 18:33 | Report Abuse

Wah power

Posted by yfchong > 2016-12-13 18:33 | Report Abuse

I mean kung fu cut loss

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-12-13 18:35 | Report Abuse

You thought you have seen a pivotal moment, so you sell. Then the stock skyrocketed few days later.

Easier said than done.

Posted by LA777 > 2016-12-13 18:35 | Report Abuse

Totally agree with cut loss strategy and let profit run.

Posted by cheoky > 2016-12-13 19:02 | Report Abuse

This is called dynamic investing? Pivotal decision is very vague... Dynamic investing based on price function rather than company itself?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-13 19:43 | Report Abuse

Icon

Professionals are not distracted by exceptions. Much like poker players. They go with their Maths and their plans and don't get distracted or discouraged by losing hands.


Have a plan....a 10 % cut loss plan is the simplest and still the best.


The bible of Dynamic Investing.


Anyway....icon.....what is the commission rate for internet trading nowadays?



It's so negligible, it's good to get out and think clearly can always get back in. No harm.....for not being stressed out, the decision is probably a better decision.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-12-13 19:46 | Report Abuse

Small portfolio can go in and out , but big one cannot. You will understand this when your portfolio grows bigger.

Posted by yfchong > 2016-12-13 19:48 | Report Abuse

Already mention loh bro icon buy using trawler.....we buy using fishing rod.... different category...he he

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-13 20:13 | Report Abuse

Ready has been sparing with mammy for sometime loh.....!!
He quoted choobee as an example as a cut loss....but it basically wrong loh......!!
But advocated cut loss choobee since Rm 1.62....but instead after mammy call...choobee has been going up to Rm 1.67 loh....!!
Certainly raider see flaws in mammy call loh....!!
The reasons are as follows

1. U cut loss bcos the stock has no margin of safety, in this case choobee has huge margin of safety with EPS of Rm 0.20, Nta more than Rm 4.00 & net cash increasing to more than Rm 1.10 per share mah..!!

2, Mammy call for sell of choobee at the same time call for buy of csc..loh !! Does he not know the fate of CSC & choobee interwined like a twin ? U cannot have over performance of CSC and under performance of choobee....they are related in the steel business loh...!!

3. Raider notice that Mammy has not much business sense loh...!! He need to understand steel industries, valuation of companies & don ape KYY Golden rule loh....!! KYY is an engineer it is understable not so familiar with FA...but mammy claim to be an accountant...should have more substances mah....!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-13 20:35 | Report Abuse

Margin of safety is another subject I will soon address.

There is no safety of margin from FA or from NTA or cash.........

Margin of safety comes from only one source, it's called diversification.

As for Choo Bee, clearly I advocated the strong sell why it is still above $ 1.80. .( all the way down from $2.20) ..by the time it is $1.60, I just keep quiet even though it is still better to use the money to buy CSC .....what I see , Choo Bee $ 1.50 and become another forgotten stock.......and CSC $3 in 3 months.

NTA or even cash have never attracted me to buy a share which will soon become another forgotten stock.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-13 21:23 | Report Abuse

There is no safety of margin from FA or from NTA or cash.........

Margin of safety comes from only one source, it's called diversification.

As for Choo Bee, clearly I advocated the strong sell why it is still above $ 1.80. .( all the way down from $2.20) ..by the time it is $1.60, I just keep quiet even though it is still better to use the money to buy CSC .....what I see , Choo Bee $ 1.50 and become another forgotten stock.......and CSC $3 in 3 months.

NTA or even cash have never attracted me to buy a share which will soon become another forgotten stock.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-13 21:28 | Report Abuse

ABOVE IS MAMMY PERCEPTION LOH.....!!
AS RAIDER SAY THERE IS DEFINITELY VALUE IN NTA & CASH....DON FORGET CHOOBEE HAD GOOD EPS TOO LOH....!!

JUST IMAGINE AN EMPTY DOUBLE STOREY HOUSE IN BANDAR UTAMA WITH VALUATION OF RM 1.0M...BUT NOT RENTED OUT....SURELY IF U CAN BUY IT FOR RM 500K....DEFINITELY THERE IS HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!

THIS IS WHAT WE CALL MARGIN OF SAFETY...WHEN THERE IS HUGE NTA OVER SHARE PRICE LOH....!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-13 22:50 | Report Abuse

raider

go and buy properties or buy reits la


you want more safety, can also buy unit trusts....unit trusts in Malaysia quite good.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-13 22:51 | Report Abuse

mall portfolio?
KYY portfolio big enough or not?
the 10% rule is extracted from KYY golden rules.




=======================
Icon8888 Small portfolio

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-12-14 04:03 | Report Abuse

For me, KYY golden rule means buy stocks that earnings can grow this year

Selling at 10% is not for me. I don't blindly follow.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2016-12-14 06:56 | Report Abuse

Let's stretch the theory of cut loss to say 50 years, if you don't read, or learn, or think for yourself, I guess doesn't matter how great is your cut loss strategy

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 07:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 13, 2016 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

raider
go and buy properties or buy reits la
you want more safety, can also buy unit trusts....unit trusts in Malaysia quite good.

RAIDER COMMENT;
THIS MAMMY DON UNDERSTAND WHAT IS MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
FOR MARGIN OF SAFETY U MUST BUY HUGE VALUE UNDERVALUE AGST THE SHARE PRICE MAH....!!

UNIT TRUST....IT HAS NO MARGIN OF SAFETY BCOS...IS RIGHTLY MARK TO MARKET VALUE MAH....!!

FOR REITS...U GET SOME...MARGIN OF SAFETY....BUT IT IS NOT HUGE ENOUGH..TO WARRANT......VERY STRONG BUY LOH...!!
GOING FWD....THERE IS BIG GLUT OF PROPERTIES TOO....!!

CHOO BEE DIFF....NTA RM 4.00....EPS RM 0.20.....CASH PER SHARE RM 1.10...COMPARE SHARE PRICE RM 1.67 BIG UNDERVALUE....THUS BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

THESE IS ONE OF THE BEST STEEL STOCK LOH...!!
MARKET LEADER LIKE ANN JOO, LION GROUP ALL OVER GEARED LOH...!!

Posted by buddyinvest > 2016-12-14 07:56 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, fully agree that the 10% drop shall not form a consideration to cut loss. It is the deterioration of company's fundamental that warrants cut loss.

During bearish period of time, a good stock can drop by 10% and at the same time the other stocks in your portfolio may also experience the same dropping 10%.

Cut loss at 10% shall therefore not be implemented blindly.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 08:47 | Report Abuse

Raider disagree loh....if u follow KYY golden rule or so called Dynamic investment...a 10% drop must cut loss with no exception loh...!!

Why ?
This bcos the 10% rule...is a safeguard mah....!!
Bcos sometime....share price react....earlier than bad news...it could be insider already start dumping mah....!!

U may want to wait for result...to come up...to make decision...this type of info is lagging news loh....!!

If u other system...of investing like....value investing margin of safety....the 10% rule....may not apply....bcos u already size up ..huge margin of safety mah...!!

In dynamic investment...it is a momentum investment....if price falter...the momentum is affected....the 10% fall...is the signal to sell loh...!!

Sell 1st...if u want to buy back...can do it later mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 09:04 | Report Abuse

To be a good investor, you need strong conviction to believe in your own investing decisions. You should not be easily swayed by outside noises. In other words, you need to stubbornly believe that your investment decision is dead spot on. If you get your facts correct, time will be your best ally and time shall reward you handsomely.
THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT FOR MARGIN OF SAFETY VALUE INVESTOR...ALWAYS BUY & WILLING TO HOLD WITH CONVICTION...AFTERALL U HAVE ALREADY DONE UR RESEARCH ON THE VALUE & MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!1

However, there's such a fine line between stubbornly correct and stubbornly wrong. If we are stubbornly correct, the market shall prove us correct but when we are stubbornly wrong, one bad stubborn decision we very well prove our downfall. HOWEVER FOR GOLDEN RULE...U NEED TO PREPARE TO CUT...UR INVESTMENT IS TEMPORARY & UNTIL & WHEN SELL IS TRIGGER BY PERFORMANCE RESULT OR SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT...BCOS UR SELECTION IS A MOMENTUM INVESTMENT SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME FUNDAMENTAL ELEMENT IN YOUR SELECTION...THIS R REALLY SHORT TERM MEASUREMENT MAH...!! SO WHEN PRICE FALTER MORE THAN 10% OF YOUR BUY PRICE...U MUST DUMP LOH....THE SYSTEM IS TELLING U TO SELL MAH...!!
DO NOT ARGUE WITH THE SYSTEM LOH...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 09:16 | Report Abuse

raider

what is the use of high NTA cum forgotten stock...the market is full of those dead horses.

Posted by R3D3 > 2016-12-14 09:19 | Report Abuse

Let me say this. I reserve my rights not to answer any rude and illogical messages.

Cheers

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 09:19 | Report Abuse

Just like u hold on to your property..loh....!!
High Nta like property mah....it will appreciate more & more over time loh...!!

There is huge margin of safety with high NTA loh....do not fool by Mr Market offering a low price currently loh...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 09:26 | Report Abuse

wrong...you got no control over company NTA, you got control over your house.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 09:30 | Report Abuse

No necessary u must control mah....!!
If u want to control u need to be richer than a tycoon loh...!!

Ben Graham....recommend acquiring a portfolio counters with margin of safety....will even out the issue of control mah...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 12:25 | Report Abuse

There is no margin of safety in NTA

only got forgotten stocks, only got time wasting stocks, plenty in KLSE

got discounts gets bigger and bigger.

until one day it is taken private like Karambunai

but its a numbers game for institutions holding hundreds of different types shares, not for retail.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 12:30 | Report Abuse

icon


KYY golden rule

both the buy side and the cut loss side works like magic.

next installment....the pros and cons of KYY buy side, what stocks to choose and for how long.

understand why it works like magic and why some times it doesn't.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 12:41 | Report Abuse

raid

Ben don't play in KLSE
You do.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 14:39 | Report Abuse

Margin of safety in NTA? One can subscribe to the idea of buying stocks where price < NTA etc but does it always work? Talk is always cheap, real examples are more useful.RAIDER SAYS BUYING WAY BELOW NTA..IS ONE OF THE SUCCESSFUL TOOLS OF MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTOR LOH..!!

Good effort. The issue of NTA is overrated. That's my humble opinion.
IF U ASK RAIDER WHICH IS BETTER TO INVEST ? A STOCK TRADE BELOW NTA 0R ABOVE NTA ? THE ANSWER GENERALLY ABOVE LOH....!!

Use Dlady as an example (there are many more, like Nestle). A a few years back, on Aug 2011, when Dlady reported its earnings, its NTA then was only 3.61. Price of Dlady was around 18.70 (give or take). As per NTA investing, one should not buy a stock where the price > NTA. No discount means no value, so cannot buy. Dlady today has a NTA of only 3.09. Its asset per share value has decreased but its share price today has soared to 55.58!! DUTCH LADY PRICE SUSTAINED UP BCOS IT HAS STRONG CASH FLOW & PAYS GOOD DIVIDEND LOH...!! BTW STRONG CASHFLOW AND GOOD DIVIDEND IS ALSO IMPORTANT CRITERIA FOR VALUE INVESTOR MAH..!!
ASK YOURSELF WHY CSC CONSIDER VALUE INVESTMENT ? THE ANS IS STRONG CASHFLOW & PAYS GOOD DIV PLUS GOOD NTA PLUS NET CASH MAH....!!
IT IS COMBINATION OF ALL THE INVESTMENT CRITERIA LOH..!1
EVEN CSC EARNINGS ERRATIC...BUT THE COMBINATION ALL THE POSITIVE FACTORS WARRANT A BUY MAH...!!

Use ChooBee as the other example. Same time frame. Aug 2011. ChooBee was 1.45. NTA was 3.63. Price < NTA. Trading at a discount. Buy? (Consider if bought exactly a year earlier, ChooBee was trading at 1.80!) ChooBee today has a much higher NTA! With an NTA of 4.08 but its share price is only 1.67. TODAY CHOOBEE IS TRADING AT RM 1.67...IT IS A STRONG BUY HOLD LOH...!! IS NTA ABOVE RM 4.00, NET CASH RM 1.10 AND THE EPS ABOVE 0.20 LOH...!! STRONG CASHFLOW TOO LOH...!!
A GOOD STRONG MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH...!!

Oh yes, there are examples where one had bought Price > NTA would have yielded a deadly poor result and then there are examples where had one bought stocks with Price < NTA, one would have been rewarded greatly.
INVESTMENT IS NOT BASED ON ONLY 1 INVESTMENT CRITERIA...IT IS BASED ON CRITERIA MAH...!! NTA IS ONE AN IMPORTANT SELECTION CRITERIA LOH...!!
But the fact is when one rely on NTA, results vary. In fact most, financial yardsticks do yields varying results. Same with technical indicators. U WOULD NOTICE MOST OF THE PLANTATION STOCKS LIKE KLK, IOI, SIME, GENTING PLANTATION TRADE ABOVE NTA...BUT 20 YRS AGO DIFF STORY WHY ? BCOS MKT TEND TO RERATE AND RECOGNISE THE VALUE OF NTA FOR PLANTATION COMPANY LOH....!!

The margin of safety does not guarantee the stock one purchases would go up. Instead the investor should have asked the basic logic question. Why is the stock trading at such a huge discount over its assets? GENERALLY U NEED TO ASK FOR ALL STOCKS THIS QUESTION MAH..!!

Take a car wash business. If the business adopts the automated way of business and the owner installs 2 auto wash machines, say 500k per machine, then this car wash business is gonna have a high asset value, more so when you compare against another car wash business whose main assets are just some foreign workers and some water pumps and vacuum cleaners. At this age of time, the simple car wash will make more money despite its lack of asset compared to the one that bought the 2 fancy expensive car wash machines. If the automated car wash company sells at huge discount (ie got margin of safety) over its asset, would it make a good investment? VERY VALID LOH...!! BUT U ASK THE CAR WASH COMPANY THAT WHO OWN THE EXPENSIVE MACHINE TO SELL TO U FOR RM 20K..THE OWNER TELL U TO BUZZ OFF LOH...!!
ON THE OTHERHAND....THE OWNER OF BANGLADESH CAR WASHERS MAY SELL TO U RM 20K MAH...!! FEW WKS AGO MY FRIEND JUST BOUGHT A CAR WASH BUSINESS FOR RM 25K....WITH A FEW BANGLA WORKERS LOH...!!

Its clear not all discounts are good.
You can buy deep discounted sushi everday when it's near to the store closing hour, but commonsense tells us the quality of the sushi would be suspect. IN CONCLUSION A DEEP DISCOUNT TO NTA OF COURSE IS BETTER THAN NO DISCOUNT LOH...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 19:41 | Report Abuse

raid

people buy shares to make money
not buy shares to admire

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 22:37 | Report Abuse

Raider can make monies using margin of safety loh...u think ....just waste time admiring meh ?
There are many ways of making monies....do not be tunnel vision...thinking just dynamic investment make monies only loh...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 22:39 | Report Abuse

plenty of forgotten stocks and time wasting stocks that fit your description.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-14 22:52 | Report Abuse

raid

in a world with so many stocks traded with huge discounts to NTA, you should look for one also has a good business. Choo Bee not it.

I was holding KESM at $4 , NTA $6.....I thought shit, its business can't be that bad?

well, it wasn't.

but Choo Bee is in far worse situation, business wise,

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-12-14 22:57 | Report Abuse

I want to keep this posting as a record.

I want to see the price of Choobee and Gadang on 15/12/2017 to gauge my performance.
The price of Choobee is 1.69 today.
The price of Gadang is 0.94 today.
Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 22:59 | Report Abuse

I think choobee is one of the best among the steel industry loh..!!
The rest of steel company are all over leverage except for choo bee & csc mah....!!

U are saying choobee going to bankrupt...i m puzzle how loh ??
With no borrowing, with net cash more than Rm 100 million & huge undervalue assets....the business can sustain loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 23:02 | Report Abuse

Why peg choobee v Gadang ?
Why not peg CSC v Choobee leh ?

csc rm 2.10 today
choo bee rm 1.69 today

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-14 23:06 | Report Abuse

raid

in a world with so many stocks traded with huge discounts to NTA, you should look for one also has a good business. Choo Bee not it.

I was holding KESM at $4 , NTA $6.....I thought shit, its business can't be that bad?

well, it wasn't.

but Choo Bee is in far worse situation, business wise,

RAIDER IS ONE OF THE BIG BENEFICIARY ON KESM...THE INVESTMENT IS ON THE SAME PRINCIPLE LIKE CHOOBEE SELECTION MAH...!!
GIVEN TIME KESM OUTPERFORM LOH.....!!

KESM LANGUISHING & STRUGGLING AT BELOW RM 4.00 FOR MANY MANY YEARS LOH..!!

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-12-14 23:08 | Report Abuse

I do not simply put a hope on Choobee and Gadang.
I select them based on my FA report.
I talk with facts and figures.
Let time tells me the performance on 15/12/2017.
Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by John Lu > 2016-12-14 23:24 | Report Abuse

OTB go buy hibiscus

Posted by VenFx > 2016-12-14 23:37 | Report Abuse

Its a game of the game amongst steel players.
U got to observe their clientele willingness in issuing orders to the producers,
Warehouse space, lead time delivery, logistically effect , credit reassessment for their clientèle, time for consuming all and all u need your sale reps. To survey report & generate strategy and act fast. Trading Game anyway , juz little more than calculating and theory.
Sales Data analytics will help a lot in this ere.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-15 00:36 | Report Abuse

Choo Bee make a bit of money this year from drastically cut down stocks and operations in a slow environment in an environment of rising prices earlier this year....its a trader of steel products (50%) and manufacturing of pipes for developers (50%). No need to wait one year. Next quarter will show a collapse in its PL

But, OTB, you very smart, when ever things go wrong, you always give yourself one more year......just like that Gamuda -W....

Its Dynamic Investing....not static Investing....don't just look at the Company as at Balance Sheet....look at it Dynamically.

CB.....OTB

Look at the revenue, stock, debters, creditors, factory costs....every thing drop, drop drastically.

Yes, they are preparing for bad times....not that it is a bad strategy, it probably is good strategy.....

why ask people to invest in a company (for 1 more year) that is preparing for tough times?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-12-15 01:02 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy,
Please do not criticize me unless you have better records than me.
Presently you do not have any.
If I insist to select Choobee and Gadang, I have my facts and figures to back me up. You do not have any fact and figure to back you up. You are just making a sweeping statement here.
I bought Gamuda-WE at 0.50 after a few swing trades, I did not sell any. Please stop attack me on Gamuda-WE, I have my own strategy to trade this stock. Result speaks louder than you talk.
Time will tell my performance. I do not wish to boast here again on my performance.
Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-15 01:17 | Report Abuse

talking to this OTB is like talking to dead wood

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2016-12-15 01:50 | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy, i lost more than 10% on gamuda-we, every time i look at the minus 10%, i feel like blaming KYY and OTB.

But every time i check, KYY and OTB facts is sound regarding Gamuda-We.

I dont believe this quarter and the next year gamuda wont have an amazing year.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-15 02:10 | Report Abuse

really

it needs $ 800 million profits just to stay even.....share price wise....I will be more bullish on under valued MMC or even better is Ekovest if you are into blue chips.

Talking about blue chips, , the best pick will be Genting.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-15 02:17 | Report Abuse

jon


it may be the biggest and best contractor in Malaysia....buy Gamuda for what? at such a large market cap?

How to justify on fundamental basis? on dividend model? and what is those Chinese do every thing themselves?

forget Gamuda la.....plenty of better picks.

Gamuda is for widows.....young man should look for young contractors.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-15 03:20 | Report Abuse

In my opinion, Genting, Mmc and Ekovest are all grossly under valued

Gamuda cannot be justified on any valuation model

Which you like, Jon?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-15 10:18 | Report Abuse

Choo Bee make a bit of money this year from drastically cut down stocks and operations in a slow environment in an environment of rising prices earlier this year....its a trader of steel products (50%) and manufacturing of pipes for developers (50%). No need to wait one year. Next quarter will show a collapse in its PL

But, OTB, you very smart, when ever things go wrong, you always give yourself one more year......just like that Gamuda -W....

Its Dynamic Investing....not static Investing....don't just look at the Company as at Balance Sheet....look at it Dynamically.

CB.....OTB

Look at the revenue, stock, debters, creditors, factory costs....every thing drop, drop drastically.

Yes, they are preparing for bad times....not that it is a bad strategy, it probably is good strategy.....

why ask people to invest in a company (for 1 more year) that is preparing for tough times?

FINALLY MAMMY CLOSER TO UNDERSTANDING DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT AND MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
ONE OF THE BEST TEAM...ITALY HAD WON MANY MANY WORLD CUP....THRU DEFENSIVE STRATEGY MAH...!!

FOR CHOOBEE IT MAKE SENSE TO INVEST LOH...!!
NTA RM 4.00, EPS RM 0.20 AND CASH PER SHARE RM 1.10...WITH PRUDENT STRATEGY MORE VALUE IS CREATED MAH....!!
U DEFEND YOUR DOWNSIDE 1ST MAH...ONCE YOUR DEFENSE IS STRONG...OPPORTUNITY WILL COME AND U GOT COMPETITIVE POWER MAH...!!