Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:31 | Report Abuse

Or too demanding on me?lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:32 | Report Abuse

I hope yr good friends / investors dont come to i3 n see all these...

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:36 | Report Abuse

Warren still made unbelievable amounts of money on % and actual basis though.

How skillful one must be, for a "mistake" to still be so profitable!

And how many people don't even have a chance to make this mistake!

At the trough of 2008, cash percentage of portfolio is at all time high. Everybody wants to hold cash, nobody wants to buy stock despite how cheap everything was.

I understand that i cannot predict where market is going to go. I may have some opinion, but i do not allow it to affect my investing in a material way.

All i know is. If it think as an investment, its cheap enough, i will buy. If the price drop i should buy more, after checking my research again and seeing if anything have changed.

Do i actually buy more? Well depends on a few factors
1) Do i have cash?

2) What investment is it? Good net asset plays (my limit is 3%), Extremely cheap stuff (2%), Wonderful companies (3-30%).

3) What other opportunities are in the market? For example, RCECAP was fantastic when everything was overpriced. Now, its still pretty good, but i didn't buy more, because it is 30% already, and many other things have fallen to a price where its as good as an investment.

An argument could even be said that i should sell and buy others, when
i think the other is a better investment. But this is a quirk of mine.

I used to be very agile, but i found that every action i took was more emotional than logical, especially when prices fell or went up afterwards. And i couldn't really tell if it was an emotional or logical decision until a long time after the decision was made. Which makes it even more suspect.

So i decided, i will be even more careful when buying, requiring high discounts to fair value. And after i buy, i cannot sell unless there is a material detrimental change in fundamentals, or prices have gone up to a level where i don't think its as attractive as an investment.

Maybe one day, when my thinking is clearer and more experienced, i'll start selling cheap investments for even cheaper investments. But not yet i think.

So yeah. For example, MNRB, if it was this price at the start of the year, yeah, i would buy some. But this price when everything is cheap, does not look as attractive, unless CharlesT agree to guarantee capital and 15% return, with us splitting 50/50 any profit above 15%.

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Posted by KLCI Going Holland > Oct 28, 2018 10:18 PM | Report Abuse

Jon ah, I ask you lah, when you identified a stock to be undervalued, how much more it fall only you buy more ah?

Warren buffet also say in 2008 he bought in a bit too early liao before it bottom out, so how are you going to prevent yourself from making master Warren's mistake?

Say for example a counter way way below it's fair value liao... but still keep falling lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:40 | Report Abuse

Anyway just for your info, even cpteh also managed to get more than 100 waterfish for his cohort 1 to 10 in the first 2 years..but since then till now he has zero participants since 2014 i think

U at least can write much longer essays than n dare to charge rm5000 per tips where cpteh only charge rm500 per head.

So u should be able to earn more money from the fee ( not fm the stock mkt)...also not bad lah

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:42 | Report Abuse

Its in essence a loan, and that is their opportunity cost.

I'm alot better than them at investment, and have a much wider view of the opportunities at hand.

My opportunity cost is therefore much higher. If i want 8%, i can just buy SPB tmr. That is 10% d.

Or even certain REITS in SG, selling below book, yielding 7% in SGD. Which is very different than RM.

Or buy a watch and sell it 3 weeks later for 10% gain.

Or borrow some money at fund societies.

This is not an investment for you or me. This is a bet. And i have to bear the risk of you disappearing. Anything can happen. I trust you, but i'm not stupid.

Which reminds me, 15% interest to be paid upfront. Haha

I will sign an agreement to hold for a minimum of a year, unless instructed to sell by you. You can close the investment anytime you want.

So if it shoots up 50% and you want close then, i'm ok.

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

15% guarantee? U only guarantee yr good friends 4.5% return a year woh...r u too mean to yr friends?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:43 | Report Abuse

I can get a lawyer friend to draft up the agreement and get it stamped etc.

Posted by BankNegaraMalaysia > 2018-10-28 22:46 | Report Abuse

Choivo, funds not tutup already ke? Why still accepting de now? I want join can ah? I just need to print money, kikiki

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:48 | Report Abuse

Aiyo i saw yr terms n condition to yr investors so i offer a much better terms to you n then u ask for much more n talk abt all these..

Yr terms to yr investor: guaranted 5% n profit sharing 60:40
My terms to you:guaranted 8% n profit sharing 50:50

N u ask for 15% guarantee..

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

I will show these comments to them.

Because it will be the fund's money (includes their investment) that is used for this arrangement.

If anything, this shows how thorough i am, along with the margin of safety i require for any trade or investment.

If i was my investor, i would be very heartened with this agreement.



You know what ill adjust it for you, above 15%. 30% profit me, 70% profit you.

If it goes up to 50% (which is your conservative estimate), ill make 25.5%, you'll make 24.5%. About an even split.

If it goes up higher than that, which in your mind it should, since 50% gain is a conservative estimate, you will make a lot more than me.

Contact me on fb if you are interested.


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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

I hope yr good friends / investors dont come to i3 n see all these...

Posted by BankNegaraMalaysia > 2018-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, mari liao, he sense you rich fella wakakaka

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

Anyway i kepo a bit..u entered into any agreememt with yr good friends/ investors?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:53 | Report Abuse

Only the investment fund.

I did bet money with them for malaysia elections, trump, brexit, mayweather pacquiao etc. After losing 5 figures, they all stop betting with me d. And invest money instead ahahaha.

====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

Anyway i kepo a bit..u entered into any agreememt with yr good friends/ investors?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

Yr logic is very cute...if above 15% 30% profit yrs n 70% profit mine
If 50% profit 25.5% yrs n 24.5% yrs??

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

24.5% mine?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:55 | Report Abuse

50% is not my conservative estimate lah its my aim...u very naughty n sneaky

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:58 | Report Abuse

Yeah. After 50% gain, you start to gain a lot more than me.

My base is 15%. 30% of 35% (50-15) is 10.5%. My capital is guaranteed.
Total is 25.5%

Your base is 0%. 70% of 35%(50-15) is 24.5%



Now if it rise 60%.

My base is 15%. 30% of 45% (50-15) is 13.5%. My capital is guaranteed. Total is :28.5%

Your base is 0%. 70% of 35%(50-15) is 31.5%


I'll be nice, transaction cost for buying and selling i eat. Hahaha

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:02 | Report Abuse

Haha, you know where to find me. I hope MNRB goes well for you.

Lets go get coffee, i'll tell you my favorite insurance investment in malaysia, in exchange for advice and critique from old timer like you.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:03 | Report Abuse

Aiyo, then like that be my investor loh!

And make money when i make agreements like this! Hahahaha

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse

Very sneaky biz man.

If compare to yr terms to yr investor leh? Seems quite a big difference woh

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 23:04 | Report Abuse

Jon , frankly speaking i dont trust you loh...but still can go out for a drink lah..lets c

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:05 | Report Abuse

Haha alright.

meatboneteafriend@gmail.com, can email here to plan logistics.

Or if you know OTB, ask him for my number. We can whatsapp and plan logistics there.

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:04 PM | Report Abuse

Jon , frankly speaking i dont trust you loh...but still can go out for a drink lah..lets c

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 23:06 | Report Abuse

Becoming yr investor for 4.5% return pa meh....better invest in myself...my record for past 10 years is much higher than that woh

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 23:07 | Report Abuse

Ok lah hope to hv a kopi time with u one day in future...but hv to meet cpteh first coz he invited me several times since years ago

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:09 | Report Abuse

choivo....

have u check with SC whether it is permissible for you to advertise here in i3 or not?

to me....u can be charged under the Securities Industry Act......

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

True.

See how your opportunity cost higher than my investors because you're willing to spend hours studying.

They not willing mah, they rather go focus on career, family, hobbies or other thing mah.

So its either FD, Index, or me loh. Hahaha

====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:06 PM | Report Abuse

Becoming yr investor for 4.5% return pa meh....better invest in myself...my record for past 10 years is much higher than that woh

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

don't play play with Lim Guan Eng....this is now Malaysia baru.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:15 | Report Abuse

Yeah license is needed for fund management activities.

Currently, its not really a fund despite me saying so.

For large investors, i just run their account for them. And i don't charge fees. All gain all loss they keep. They just promise to keep all the money in for 3 years, and reinvest all the div.

People who give me money directly to put into fund, is more like loan or IOU, with kickers.

Just to be clear with people here. Not advertising a fund. I repeat, NOT ADVERTISING A FUND. Even if you want give money directly, ill only accept small sums.

Because my goal is to build a 5 year track record with third party certification, before i start a fund.

If cannot build good track record, aiyah, invest my own money can d.

====
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 28, 2018 11:09 PM | Report Abuse

choivo....

have u check with SC whether it is permissible for you to advertise here in i3 or not?

to me....u can be charged under the Securities Industry Act......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:19 | Report Abuse

under the SIA, people cannot just go to forum and ask for investment money from the public......

-you need a licence
-you need a prospectus
-you need approval from bank negara and SC

u have to watch out for the definition of "public"

life not so simple one.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:38 | Report Abuse

go get yourself a CFA and work in the industry a few years.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:40 | Report Abuse

of course...there is no law against a few friends and family members pooling resources together to manage a hedge fund......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:45 | Report Abuse

classical world of the world....Newtonian physics, deterministic, B Graham world, classical economics

modern view of the world......quantum nature, probabilistic, uncertainty principles....

Posted by KangWee > 2018-10-29 08:18 | Report Abuse

wakao qqq3 one hit see blood leh

Posted by Sslee > 2018-10-29 09:20 | Report Abuse

Dear hollandking,
Hope you like this view from atom to universe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0whBJui7zmY
Human is able to rule the planet earth because we are the only species that able to us our limitless mind to imagine and hence able to inspired (thro’ story telling, writing and speech) to unite us in millions for better or for worse. The same imagination helps us in discovering many theory of Physic, chemistry and biology for the advancement of science. Our imagination helps us to create the rules of god and rules of law so that our conducts are complied with certain rule for mutual benefit and humanity. Our imagination helps us to create value in piece of paper thus create value and commerce. Our conscience helps to guide us to be ethical and finally the vastness of universal and our inescapable final destination death helps us to have humility.

Dear qqq3,
I am disappointed with you despite numerous explanations by KC you still remain clueless as of what value investor about and where you get the information, “last 12 months, the value investors lost until father mother cannot recognise.....”
Value investors are the hardworking people going thro’ the annual financial report, getting relevant information from internet and make some assumptions as of what the future earning look like then we classified the stocks as growth stock (reasonable PE with solid cash flow and increasing revenue) or value play stock (Low PE with solid assets) we then allocated a certain capital to each of the stocks. We are flexible in selling some of these stocks when we feel that the stocks already achieved our TP and we carried out periodic review and make some rebalancing on our holding when opportunity or our assumption had change to valid an adjustment.

I had never used any derogatory word to hit at any person before and you are the first and hopefully the last. Know why? Posted by hollandking > Oct 29, 2018 12:29 AM | Report Abuse
If you are intelligent enough, u will have a clue

Thank you

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-29 09:38 | Report Abuse

ss

whether high turnover, low turnover...stock market not for you.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-29 10:39 | Report Abuse

osted by Sslee > Oct 29, 2018 09:20 AM | Report Abuse

stocks already achieved our TP
=======================

the biggest problem is the part dealing with tp........buy with conviction....bull market makes a lot of money. Bear market lose a lot of money.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2018-10-29 12:28 | Report Abuse

Dear Jon Choivo ,

Do you think LPI can excel further since you're saying that the company still running on obsolete underwriting system, pen & paper,ect?
Ultimately, using technology brings advantages and cost benefits and failure to innovate will only bring disaster to itself.

What do you think?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-29 13:02 | Report Abuse

PBBANK and LPI is known to have one of the worst IT systems in banking and insurance.

But people dont lose money in banking or LPI because it system is bad. They lose money because they have no common sense. The give bad loans or write bad insurance.

The IT systems of LPI and PBBANK is good enough to get the job done. Some banks want to spend millions to automate one small part.

PBBANK etc just say, its ok, just continue.

PBBANK and LPI, or basically Teh Hong Piow, understands the importance of Return on Incremental Capital. They dont just simply do IT system upgrade because backside itchy.

Many banks willing to do IT upgrade like crazy, why? The money is not theirs. Their is no big boss with high skin the gamme.

Berkshire Hathaway is a USD500 billion conglomerate. Their HQ got less than 20 people. WArren buffet does not use excel, he does not have a bloomberg machine.

Ajit Jain turned Berkshire Reinsurance, from zero float in 1985 to USD49 plus billion today. He has less than 30 staff.

When it comes to banking and insurance. Its the people behind it that is aboslutely key, not so much the tools.

LPI can still excel further. As long as Teh Hong Piow is alive, and the culture is absolutely ingrained in the employees. With the future CEO being someone who has signifcant skin in game.

There is still plenty of places to grow. But the stock is really expensive on a quantitative basis.

Also berkshire hathaway is now 11PE. After earnings grew 67% in Q2.

====
newbie8080 Dear Jon Choivo ,

Do you think LPI can excel further since you're saying that the company still running on obsolete underwriting system, pen & paper,ect?
Ultimately, using technology brings advantages and cost benefits and failure to innovate will only bring disaster to itself.

What do you think?

Posted by newbie8080 > 2018-10-29 14:26 | Report Abuse

Dear Jon Choivo,

There's rumours within the PBB group that Tan Sri The may step down next year from all his current positions.


Any comments on the future of the group of companies?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-10-29 15:36 | Report Abuse

>>>>
newbie8080 Dear Jon Choivo,

There's rumours within the PBB group that Tan Sri The may step down next year from all his current positions.


Any comments on the future of the group of companies?
29/10/2018 14:26<<<


Is this something new that no one in the market knows of?

If yes, this will affect the share price.

If no, and everyone has known of this (since it has been announced), the price has reflected this news in the market already.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-29 18:28 | Report Abuse

The market has known for some time he will leave. But i think on the official announcement there will a small drop.

I would not be worried about retirement, as i doubt tan sri is the type to just relax in retirement.

I'll start to worry upon his passing, about a year after. Having said that, i hope he lives a long long long long life. Even though i dont own any pbbank and lpi shares. Maybe i should buy some even if its abit expensive.

===
newbie8080 Dear Jon Choivo,

There's rumours within the PBB group that Tan Sri The may step down next year from all his current positions.


Any comments on the future of the group of companies?
29/10/2018 14:26

Posted by newbie8080 > 2018-10-29 20:15 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the insight

Posted by Jarklp > 2018-10-29 23:02 | Report Abuse

Jon, you can't simply compare credit, life and general insurance business in the analysis. The nature of their business is completely different.

General insurance companies rely on insurance/underwriting income, life insurance companies rely mostly on investment income. It is unlikely to see a positive "cost of float" for life companies unless they sell only pure protection plans like reinsurers. All life companies in Malaysia are selling mostly investment related plans like investment linked and profit-sharing plans. Protection plans are relatively small in their portfolio. LPI and Tune are showing positive "cost of float" because they are general insurance companies and of course their claim ratios are good.

No doubt LPI is one of the best managed general insurance companies in town. They have a relative high fire(which is highly profitable) insurance from PBB and relatively small motor insurance (which is not that profitable). They have the best combined ratio in town. In fact, they are also the one under a lot of pressure under de-tariff environment as many will start cutting price to get into their fire insurance portfolio.

For composite insurers like Allianz, Etiqa, MNRB and Takaful, you need to breakup the account into life/general and analyse it separately to get a better picture.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-29 23:05 | Report Abuse

Dear Jarklp,

You are right. Life is way way way more competitive, and therefore the goal is to get it below average borrowing cost, and make the investment income.

Are you in the insurance industry? I would love to ask a few questions regarding some queries i still have.

Its only a rough guide after all.

Posted by Jarklp > 2018-10-29 23:29 | Report Abuse

What do you like to find out? if i can answer...LOL

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-29 23:35 | Report Abuse

Do you mind sending and email to meatboneteafriend@gmail.com or look for me on fb.

We can talk further there. Better yet, let me buy you coffee. :)

Or just drop your email here, and ill email you.

Posted by Learner King > 2018-10-30 17:15 | Report Abuse

Still not stop trying to cheat water fish ah jon choivo? Hahaha

Posted by Unlevered > 2018-10-30 19:29 | Report Abuse

Jon, do u go beyond annual reports to obtain the necessary quantitative data? Just curious haha

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-10-30 19:36 | Report Abuse

Alex water fish reporting in~

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-30 22:49 | Report Abuse

For individual company research, i do try if its something i really like.

But these days, everything is so cheap, and obviously good. A quick analysis will do.

====
Unlevered Jon, do u go beyond annual reports to obtain the necessary quantitative data? Just curious haha
30/10/2018 19:29

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-03-02 22:41 | Report Abuse

@Choivo Capital, how do you rate LPI now, since the entire market has plunged and bargains are beginning to show?