Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 21:41 | Report Abuse

where are we now? denial, regret or fear?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 21:42 | Report Abuse

based on 28 responses so far, >80% voted pessimism, panic =/

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 21:44 | Report Abuse

i have only one question...if there we no trade-war...does it makes sense to talk about bear market now?

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 21:46 | Report Abuse

wow..really? I just voted for grinding economics

Posted by Alex™ > Dec 22, 2018 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

based on 28 responses so far, >80% voted pessimism, panic =/

Posted by cheoky > 2018-12-22 21:47 | Report Abuse

If holding full house or royal flush, can continue go further with commitment bias?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 21:48 | Report Abuse

hmm.... based on efficient market hypothesis, the price we have now (e.g., small cap bear market) is very likely reflecting the outcome of trade war (and the consequence of it).

Logically, once trade war is announced, fear is induced on a public level. To mitigate it by saying trade war is ended (even publicly) will lead some investors withdrawing his fund from the equity market. This one macam loss-aversion bias? ahha

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 21:49 | Report Abuse

@cheoky

yes ah cheoky, probability is at your side. ALL IN! haha. But if want play with Kelly betting, bring in 20% wealth on the poker table. So you can all in 20% only...

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 21:54 | Report Abuse

@probability

hehe, I speak on behalf of data only
https://imgur.com/a/HhEYb8J

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 21:58 | Report Abuse

wow..i fall into species under extinction.....LOL!

i think so different than others..its good in a way

Posted by Alex™ > Dec 22, 2018 09:54 PM | Report Abuse

@probability

hehe, I speak on behalf of data only
https://imgur.com/a/HhEYb8J

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 22:01 | Report Abuse

thats a very good tool..thanks Alex..

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 22:04 | Report Abuse

most welcome probability bro =D

Posted by ramada > 2018-12-22 22:22 | Report Abuse

KLCI Index dipped 79%, 46% & 47% respectively within 1997-98, 2000-01 & 2008-09. Currently, the index dipped 14%. Now you guys say in panic stage, I think a bit optimistic.

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 22:31 | Report Abuse

ramada...thats the take-away...despite market being pessimistic, KLCI dropped like 20% only...

meaning, they all feel the price are not reflecting true fundamentals...

as if its a hoo-haa created by the trade war...which has to inevitably end

as trade-war causes pain to all..including U.S

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 22:35 | Report Abuse

market mood is not determined by price...

but fundamental vs price

Posted by probability > 2018-12-22 22:36 | Report Abuse

but of course we dont know if the survey sampling represents the true market makers

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-22 22:57 | Report Abuse

depend on what price u bought? If u lose a lot, a counter got prob and u still say thumbs up, and keep saying how good how good, then u know what case is this

If u fear market, say crash crash crash then u know...


if horse run away, then u regret but this regret got booby trap one loh bcoz they pull ikan bilis in then slam back down, so regret may not necessary be a regret loh, might be a nightmare.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-22 22:59 | Report Abuse

s hold your line, when time comes u strike swiftly,silently and unexpectedly.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-22 22:59 | Report Abuse

do not be tempted

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 23:03 | Report Abuse

Betul juga.. I3 many retailer play only... But retailer so fast pessimistic already? Big plate drop 15%, but small plate many already icu...

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-22 23:04 | Report Abuse

One thing I like about holandking is that his comment always lead ppl away from Holland... Haha..

Posted by Goh Kim Hock > 2018-12-22 23:06 | Report Abuse

i3 臥虎藏龍. 不是你想像中這麼簡單.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-22 23:09 | Report Abuse

darn, i'm leading ppl away from holland? Guess I'm doing badly since i'm suppose to welcome ppl to holland?

Posted by Nicholasming91 > 2018-12-22 23:15 | Report Abuse

Now many retail not at panic, confirm despair alrdy, sold all cut loss haha

Posted by 5354_ > 2018-12-23 04:01 | Report Abuse

You study PHD for behavioural finance true? Why choose 0 revenue and boss HS selling ctr Sumatec to invest? You not a gambler more true?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-23 08:58 | Report Abuse

5354 bro... Sumatec is speculative play. Yes please do your own due diligence. As they always say, the decision is always yours.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-23 09:28 | Report Abuse

Always good to learn from people here who are willing to share :)

Posted by 5354_ > 2018-12-23 11:27 | Report Abuse

Oil drop 0 revenue boss HS cabut why you think is good? After get your PhD want to takeover is it? If Suma close shop(I heard 5 mths deadline to get out PN17 true?) bef you get your PhD how?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-23 11:28 | Report Abuse

If sumatec game ball then Alex is wrong. The market is always right~

Posted by 5354_ > 2018-12-23 11:33 | Report Abuse

Unless all your i3 comrades(or whoever new buyer) who has expertise to dig oil in Kazakhtan where HS fail then you can make big gain. Or else if close shop your 1.5 sen can even become 0.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 11:44 | Report Abuse

is that what PHD people do?

what a waste of resources.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 11:46 | Report Abuse

Lin Yutang, China literature giant warned us about such PhDs many many years ago.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 11:51 | Report Abuse

makes more sense to get a CFA than a PHD in surveying people.

Posted by 5354_ > 2018-12-23 12:46 | Report Abuse

Survey people but find ds(or BuahCiku, etc) interesting sifus to follow? Why choose HRC and Sumatec if not follow ds, BC, etc?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-23 12:57 | Report Abuse

I'm sorry that I feel like a waste of resource to you :(

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 14:05 | Report Abuse

Chinese are more practical people....u should leave all these surveying people stuffs to guailos......

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-23 14:12 | Report Abuse

One thing i observed...those read book too much n like to talk a lot of theories one normally perform so so

Posted by alam Rafik > 2018-12-23 14:15 | Report Abuse

@probability ..yes, market moood can chnage any time..

Posted by cheoky > 2018-12-23 14:17 | Report Abuse

In sumatec, nothing but only price attractiveness is a trap. With greed, you had jump into the trap, hoping greater fools. This is financial behavior study. You became the study subject.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 14:32 | Report Abuse

Lin Yutang has many jokes about PhD students doing people survey while in New York ....He believes Chinese scientists are not like that....and not so stupid.....

Posted by Sslee > 2018-12-23 14:53 | Report Abuse

Dear Alex,
Your question: What do you think? Can we overcome these three biases (Commitment bias, Confirmation bias and Overconfidence bias) in financial decision?
Before I try to answer these questions allow me to state that I was one of the 28 respondents of your Templeton Meter pushing the Panic!! Button not because I am in panic sales but on my assessment of the current state of Bursa. How else to explain the free fall of JAKS, VS, or for that matter all the metal and construction counters or even KSL with increase Q earning the stock remain dead. For me personally I still have my full time job that pay me well and I shall allocate part of my monthly salary into buying some value stocks and hopefully I do not need to use my FD to buy financial stocks that sell for a song when the Bursa reach the “DESPAIR STATE”

Come to your questions: I recall someone wrote this:
Generally, there are 4 camps of blogger or members in i3.
A. The first type is those who have bought the shares and keep promoting them.
They can be small investor that only buy a few lots but making a lot of noise. Some are more intellectual that can write very detail analysis. These can be professional analyst or simply intelligent individual with very good investment background and experience. A few of them are remisier that may or may not own any shares, but issues buy call for their subscriber. The last one is some superinvestor that has a large position enough to move the market. Sometimes, the share may not be good but with their purchasing power and followers, this can be turned into a self-fulfilling prophesy.

B. Second type is those who keep attacking and spreading fear.
They would like to buy the shares with lower price. Once they bought the share, they will become type “A” promoter. The more sophisticated one can be those hired by certain parties that issue warrant so that they don't need to pay when the warrant is expired. For some, they may simply want revenge when they notice certain member that have attacked their shares before and is trying to promote another share.

C. Third type is neutral
They have other means of earning a living. They can be a lecturer and running some course. They may be observer and don't own a particular share but simply like to chip in.
There is one type that is more cunning. They actually go to the hottest stock and give very sensible comment when the share price is being hit. You will be wondering why they are so actively doing this. For this kind of person, they will come out like a hero or saviour and they will finally promote some shares and gain some follower.

D. Fourth type is the silent one.
Don't underestimate the fourth type. They can the newbies but with cash rich. They can also be serious investor. They can be some working for investment bank or asset management that are not allowed to post. They come to i3 to read the blog by gathering the information and the sentiment of the market. You may be surprised that they can be computer armed with sophisticated machine learning and AI that can trigger a sell or buy.
For e.g. The famous 1987 black Monday that caused the market crash. 30 years onwards, the algorithms are much more sophisticated, and you can see the speed of recent sell off in DJIA.
Of course, people said no body point the gun to your head to buy a share and you need to judge by yourself. However, some very experience blogger can use a lot of convincing points to lure you to buy into their shares or vice versa. This is what I call type A super investor.

As for me, previously I wrote: “In i3 community, we have super-investors, professional fund managers, investment educators, preachers, old-timers, syndicate manipulators, day traders, part-timers, naysayers, jokers, haters, sadists, dreamers, idealist, PLP king and newbie. These had make i3 a diverse and plural community with diverse views and opinions, all are welcome.” By now you should have know many of them by their comments or blogs in i3.

So the answer to your question “YES” everyone here are biases toward their vested interest either monetary or intelligently. And if you wants a more detail as of how they are biases? You need to separate them to different groups and ask the question what is the end result they aim to achieve by their financial decision?
1. Age group.
2. Core faith, culture and education background
3. Full time or part time (retiree)
4. Investor or trader
5. Invest for own self or other people money
Is it my hope, young people like you will learnt to accept different views and humility that there are not perfect solution/answer to human greed and fear and by the way TA is a tool to study human behavior decision and someone say if you can’t beat them join them.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you.

Thank you
P/S I will buy some KSL but not the KNM.

Posted by ks55 > 2018-12-23 15:12 | Report Abuse

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

Nov 29, 2018 01:38 PM | Report Abuse

Haha....
Everybody has to pay for tuition fees.
But outcomes are different.

Some pay and learn something, not going to commit same mistake (or less mistake)

Some pay and learn nothing, all tuition fees go to the drain

Some keep on paying and learn very slowly, they believe one day they will become sifu too

Some have graduated and enjoying their golden year right now

Some pay but dead half way, they are having meeting in holland



So which category do you belong to?
Ask yourself sincerely.
Nobody is going to judge whether you are right or wrong
Only to measure how successful you are in this market

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 15:16 | Report Abuse

only a fool think stock market is rational.

Posted by ks55 > 2018-12-23 15:30 | Report Abuse

If you have not experience 1997/98 crash, you may now half dead.
Meaning you have lost half your capital.

Again 1997/98 is the worst case scenario I ever come across.
So far our market still not reach that stage yet.

May be when we witness US and world market crash after 1 Mac 2019 when full scale trade war started, and perhaps trade war already developed into hard war, then prolong recession will set in just like Great Depression in 1929.......

Posted by Victor Yong > 2018-12-23 15:31 | Report Abuse

agreed.... behavioural finance, a new branch of finance.... many people/investors are irrational in investing e.g. herd instinct, fear, greed, etc.

Posted by ks55 > 2018-12-23 15:35 | Report Abuse

In 1997/98, you were not sure which counter would be hit with multiple limit downs, you were not sure which bank going to close shop next day.

Remember depositors took out money from local banks and deposited next door foreign bank.
It may be UOB, HSBC, or The Chartered Bank.
Who dare to put money in Maybank or Public Bank then?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 15:41 | Report Abuse

oetaybodoh > Dec 23, 2018 03:32 PM | Report Abuse

bodoh qqq3
========

stock market far from rational....

still , there are winners and there are losers....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 15:43 | Report Abuse

the when is more important than the how.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 15:46 | Report Abuse

i also think it is fair for sslee to donate some salaries to the stock market......

Posted by UnicornP > 2018-12-23 15:58 | Report Abuse

I'm in despair. Kind of no hope for stocks d.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-23 15:59 | Report Abuse

by UnicornP > Dec 23, 2018 03:58 PM | Report Abuse

I'm in despair. Kind of no hope for stocks d.
===========

good news.....there is life beyond stock market.