Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-30 06:27 | Report Abuse

I think choivo just described his rich dad/poor dad scenario. When they pressed kiyosaki on who his "rich" dad was, knowing that the story didn't really fit and no one existed in Hawaii that had the vast ownership of properties he was alluding to, kiyosaki said later in life that his rich dad was more a metaphor on how to invest properly, rather than a real person as such.

That "rich dad" title helped him sell a lot of books and get a lot of new clients.

#truestory

Fyi any Malaysian who tells you they bought Netflix early is most likely fake. The only real documented person I know who bought it early was my daughter's lecturer in California. He bought it at usd8 in 2012. Unfortunately, he also sold out at usd36, which gives you an idea of how being able to pick and hold good stocks and write good articles with a PhD degree in economics is not always correlated.

Nonetheless, good well written article! Kudos!

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 08:49 | Report Abuse

Nice sharing. But few things are conceptually wrong. Myeg is not GLCs
Their bottomline not 100 % from govt contracts. Anyway, its good tovhave govt contract

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 09:05 | Report Abuse

The new taiko is kyy, tht makes me laugh non stop.... Hahaha. Taiko is who also dunno.... Still taiko

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 09:05 | Report Abuse

The ex bankers probably still lives in 20 years ago punya world.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2019-03-30 09:26 | Report Abuse

tqvm for this article. very informative

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 10:15 | Report Abuse

Thanks for another educational and insightful article. Thanks your ex-banker friend for his generous sharing.





>>>
Having said that, I do much prefer paying for earnings these days compared to one year ago. We are not liquidators after all.
>>>

Yes, it is better to own a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

On some occasions, I may even pay a little bit more just to own the wonderful company.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-30 10:16 | Report Abuse

Dear Choi.
"Well, I think you seem to be very much like an accountant, with a very strong focus on the figures.
I believe you need to be more adventurous, and some things you must feel, it cannot be measured."
Well said, this is not on your investment but life. You cannot experience life by reading from the books, you need to experience it and feel it.

Thank you

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 10:21 | Report Abuse

Accountants and engineer are 2 stuborn minds

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 10:23 | Report Abuse

SSLee

Jon has a long runway ahead of him. Given his zest , curiosity and resourcefulness, he is doing very fine in his exploration of the many issues in investing.

Hopefully, he has the temperament of Buffett and Munger to synthesize a winning philosophy to exploit or release his potential. Failing this, he too, staistically and probabilistically, enjoys mediocre returns at most.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 10:36 | Report Abuse

Phillip.

I just take people at face value. In any event, judging by the way he talks, acts and dresses. Confident, knowledgable and humble.

He definitely strikes me as someone who is doing well.

Thanks for the compliment.


Sslee,

Nothing beats life experience. However, I will never be able to live through communism and the birth of the country in my time. And thus I have to read.

Also, some mistakes, I'd rather learn vicariously through the experience of others.

Losing my pants at the age of 35 from adventurous investing or trading is one of them.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 10:38 | Report Abuse

Paperplane.

Im really studying harta very hard now. But so hard to buy.

Can it grow at 20% or so for the next 5-10 years to deserve this valaution. He is very confident of it. I'm not that sure.

Really difficult. But finding out is the fun part I suppose.

Posted by value88 > 2019-03-30 10:39 | Report Abuse

What i can see is Jon Choivo didn't really learn much from the ex-banker. When ex-banker gave comments on Jon's top investment stocks and his "accountant" way of investment method, he sort of argued back and defended his stands.

Posted by value88 > 2019-03-30 10:42 | Report Abuse

Investment is a mix of science and art. The science can carry us to certain distance, it is the art that gives outstanding result.
I learn the above from experience, and I am still far from good.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 11:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 11:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 11:59 | Report Abuse

This raider disagree with 3iii bias comment loh,
this x banker is actually highlighting their past glory, going fwd there is not much expectation on nestle, which the x banker also agree, other than slightly better than time deposits return bcos of overvaluation mah...!!


Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 11:28 AM | Report Abuse
>>>
Ex-Banker:

Well I have a few rules when it comes to investing.

I only invest in Chinese owned companies, this is exclusive to Malaysia and South East Asia.
No GLC’s or those that survive on government contracts. Period.
Great industries that I can understand.
The founder must not be egoistical.

My largest investments are Nestle (original cost of RM8, kept topping up), Public Bank (bought at RM1 pre-split and kept topping up), Dialog ( bought in 2008 or so), Hartalega (bought in 2008 very near IPO), MFlour (bought recently near the bottom).

Overseas, I hold Visa, Netflix, IQIYI, Starbucks and a few other companies.>>>>

From my observation, the ex-banker makes money from investing into:

1. Good/Great companies with the managements (based on his criteria)
2. Buying and holding them for the long term.



icon8888 will be devastated again by ex-banker's sharing.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 12:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 12:29 | Report Abuse

People can do it but u cannot...that means u lack certain skills loh...!
Just like swimming some people can swim but some really cannot loh..!!

Solution either u chose to learn new skills or u choose avoid loh...!!
This is same like swimming mah....!!

Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 12:21 PM | Report Abuse

Tactical asset allocation: The strategy when you allocate more of your assets to stocks when you feel the stock market overall is cheap and allocate less of your assets to stocks when you feel the stock market overall is expensive.


Did I have an overall feel that the market was overpriced in 1980, 1987, 1997 and 2008 before the crash occurred?

No, no, yes, and no.

In the 1980s, I was not in the stock market. However, I did know of those in the stock market and they were over-bullish. Times were good. Those in stocks were doing well before the crash. Restaurants were packed. The Pan-El debacle was perhaps predictable to a minority. Of course, the majority were having a gala irrational good time prior to the crash occurring.

In 1987, Malaysia was still in a deep and prolonged recession. I was not in the stock market. No money to invest. The overall market was not unduly bullish. The Oct 1987 crash was a surprised to many.

I started investing in early 1990s. I became fearful of the stock market from 1995 to 1997. I couldn't understand the pricing of the stocks in the market. It was so irrational for the prices of stocks to be priced so high. Yet, my friends and those around me were having a gala good time. They invested a sum in the morning and in the later part of the day, they made a few thousand ringgits. They were able to do so on many occasions too. It was fear and discipline to be on the sideline watching the market going up and up. My stocks bought earlier for long term investments, were not sold except for a few obtained via IPOs. When the crashed occurred, it was severe. Money had been allocated to the wrong assets and the asset prices collapsing led to huge economic and financial ruins for many. Those who leveraged were hit badly. Those who bought assets (properties, shares, etc) beyond their means were hit. Those who did not know what they were doing were financially hit. These translated into hardship for themselves and their families.

I did not see the 2008 financial crisis coming. Though the market had gone up from 2005 to 2008, I thought it was not too overpriced. In my mind, I was influenced by some early articles which stated that the subprime crisis was mainly a US problem. Little did I foresee this financial crisis would cause contagion world wide. Yet I did not sell my stocks since their prices had been driven down within months of the onset of the crisis. Lucky for me, the financial crisis did not last as long and a V-shape recovery was much welcomed.

My observation:

It is not easy to employ tactical asset allocation, except in the extreme of the stock markets, when the bubble was obvious or the severe crash was obvious.

From the above, I recognised the bubble of the pre-1997 era but not the other times. I recognized too the bargains post-1997 and post-2008. Here in lies some lessons for my future investing.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 12:52 | Report Abuse

I am wondering if i should just close off the comments from now on.

Somehow, people can find a way to argue just about anything.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 12:55 | Report Abuse

Haha you're right.

Well, i'm a bit odd. I argue my points like a fanatic, but the moment a piece of contrary fact is presented, i chaange my mind quite quickly.

In any event, if you don't lay out your points in full for the other party, how are they supposed to show your errors.

RCECAP is still a pretty good one for me, but he definitely illuminated a few things for me to see.

====
value88 What i can see is Jon Choivo didn't really learn much from the ex-banker. When ex-banker gave comments on Jon's top investment stocks and his "accountant" way of investment method, he sort of argued back and defended his stands.
30/03/2019 10:39 AM

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 12:56 | Report Abuse

Jon

Let it be.

More important is your "inner scoreboard".

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 13:00 | Report Abuse

Purebull,

Maybe. But when people make statements like that, im not so crass as to ask them to show me their statement of account haha.

I'll just take it at face value, and then from his actions, his thinking and his attitude, decide how probable is it.

There is no difference to me anyway, whether he lied or not. As whatever he taught me, i'll only take those which make sense to me.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 13:15 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by stockraider > Mar 30, 2019 11:59 AM | Report Abuse

This raider disagree with 3iii bias comment loh,
this x banker is actually highlighting their past glory, going fwd there is not much expectation on nestle, which the x banker also agree, other than slightly better than time deposits return bcos of overvaluation mah...!!

>>>


Raider should be honest.

Raider should be humble too.

It is alright to admit mistakes too.

In fact, admitting mistakes allow one to grow to higher altitudes.


If the ex-banker has been following raider's advice over the years, he would have sold off his Nestle at RM 40, RM 50 or RM 60.

Be honest with yourself, raider.

Yes, you always insisted that I asked people to buy Nestle at high prices. Why should I?

I share with them that I hold Nestle for many years already.

The last lot of Nestle I bought was RM 68. I have friends who sold theirs at RM 70, because they felt it was too overpriced.


That is the nature of the stock market.

Posted by king36 > 2019-03-30 13:18 | Report Abuse

Thanks for yr write-up.
I am still learning.
Hope to see more of yr sharing.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 13:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 13:41 | Report Abuse

Raider is asking people to wake up & learn and not be mislead by 3iii loh...!! Ask yourself Nestle at Rm 148 PE 50x how far more can it go leh?

It is not like SAPE promising superb return like a 10x baggers or 1000% return if u hold it longterm 3 yrs loh...!!

U need to be smart & act smart...just avoid mediocre return, bcos it is overvalue...It is that simple loh...!!

Buy stock with huge margin of safety and turning around and with great prospect going fwd loh...!!

Investment is about the future not past loh..!!
Past is history with fond past memory and enjoy & reflect over a cup tea, just like 3iii doing reflecting on past Nestle glory loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 1:15 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 30, 2019 11:59 AM | Report Abuse

This raider disagree with 3iii bias comment loh,
this x banker is actually highlighting their past glory, going fwd there is not much expectation on nestle, which the x banker also agree, other than slightly better than time deposits return bcos of overvaluation mah...!!

Raider should be honest.

Raider should be humble too.

It is alright to admit mistakes too.

In fact, admitting mistakes allow one to grow to higher altitudes.

If the ex-banker has been following raider's advice over the years, he would have sold off his Nestle at RM 40, RM 50 or RM 60.

Be honest with yourself, raider.

Yes, you always insisted that I asked people to buy Nestle at high prices. Why should I?

I share with them that I hold Nestle for many years already.

The last lot of Nestle I bought was RM 68. I have friends who sold theirs at RM 70, because they felt it was too overpriced.


That is the nature of the stock market.

Posted by wwwcomment > 2019-03-30 14:01 | Report Abuse

For me, nothing beats the 1993 bubble.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 14:01 | Report Abuse

Correctloh if corp like Talam can generate cash and pay down debts from massive rm 500 million to only rm 58 million and still the debt is coming down fast to positive soon, that means Talam is doing something very right and doing something very smart loh...!!

At price 4.5 sen....u cannot go very wrong loh.....!!

Calvin Tan is a great turnaround sifu specialist loh...!!

Alot of margin of safety and thought already put into Talam loh..!

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 29, 2019 8:16 PM | Report Abuse

Hi guys,

I just arrived in Singapore and managed to take a brief look at Talam latest results- I am happy to "SEE" Talam has furthered pared down borrowings to only a mere "Rm58 Millions"

WELL DONE TAN SRI DATUK CHAN & TALAM STAFF!!

You have done an exceedingly great job!!

Now Talam Management is honest to admit they dispose some non essential lands to further pare down debts

YOU ALL MUST KNOW THAT BURSA NOW ONLY REQUIRES COMPANY TO REPORT ONLY 10 TOP PROPERTIES (The rest no need to report)

AS FAR AS THE 11 CORE GOLD MINE LISTED PROPERTY ASSETS THEY ARE STILL HELD ONLY TIGHTLY (NOT FOR SALE UNTIL ECRL UNLOCKS ITS TRUE VALUE)

Same thing Happens to Daiman Properties

Daiman also did not list all their properties. Of course they were some unsold odd shaped and not well located properties of Daiman which Calvin & Contractor Friend have gone to view & inspect.

Yet Daiman also own some very prime properties. As of now Daiman is taken private for about Rm3.00 (from Rm2.20 when privatisation was offered)

NOW TALAM HAS PARED DOWN DEBTS FROM OVER HALF BILLION RINGGIT IN PAST YEARS

Then to Rm400 mil debt

To Rm300 mil debt

To Rm200 mil debt

To Rm109 mil debt

AND latest only Rm58 million borrowings

NEXT TO COME WILL BE

TALAM WILL CLEAR ALL ITS BORROWINGS & BECOME A DEBT FREE COMPANY LIKE PM CORP

AFTER THAT TALAM CAN DO A CAPITAL EXERCISE LIKE PM CORP OR RCECAP

DO A CAPITAL EXERCISE TO WIPE OFF LOSSES & GIVE A CASH WINDFALL

THESE FACTS ARE ALL INSIDE ALL TALAM YEARLY & QUARTERLY REPORTS

TO ALL WHO HAVE EYES & BRAINS PLEASE GO AND SEE FOR YOURSELVES

I AM HAPPY TO HAVE BOUGHT MORE TODAY

WILL ADD IF ANY ONE SELL

Posted by probability > 2019-03-30 14:12 | Report Abuse

Ex-banker was spending his time almost like a father to a child to share 'priceless knowledge'.....(felt bad when Jon wrote justifying 1K for the hours spent)

Thanks to the super humble Ex-Banker
(makes great sense to look for humble management - as it reflects deep knowledge & experience, prudence on managing return)

and thanks to 'not so humble yet' Jon for sharing this...

Posted by teoct > 2019-03-30 14:41 | Report Abuse

Jon, many thanks for sharing. Comparing 98 with 08, 08 was worse in my view. But my welder friend said 98 was worse as there was no work compared with 08. So all is relative.

Also the go go days of the 90s do have some valuable lessons - one of which is the set up of CDS. My father's many shares were sold by the remiser without his knowledge. Luckily he managed to recover all of them over a period of time and this episode caused much health damages.

Insights by ex-Banker was interesting.

Happy investing all.

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-30 15:12 | Report Abuse

I feel very sad, when I illuminated the same thing about quality of loans between b40 lenders and rich Chinese people lenders, choivo say I am a fool. When ex-banker say the same things, choivo feels illuminated.

Are ex-bankers and accountants traditionally better investors and analysts than amateur old engineers?

Maybe when I become an ex-engineer I will be treated better.

>>>>>>>

RCECAP is still a pretty good one for me, but he definitely illuminated a few things for me to see.

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-30 15:15 | Report Abuse

But to be perfectly honest the 90's was really the go go years when I made so much money and had so much confidence in my "trading" skills that borrowing 200k from family and friends to open up margin accounts, and getting 20-30% returns weekly for months, I fooled myself into thinking I knew how to stock pick.

Once bitten forever dead I guess.

Posted by probability > 2019-03-30 15:20 | Report Abuse

Imagine... from having USD 3 billion and dying a bankrupt. God is great...allahu akbar..

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 15:30 | Report Abuse

Nothing beats 98

It was hell

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-03-30 15:34 | Report Abuse

Sslee, FG Wong is still with u in PT Musimas?

OKB retired oredi?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 15:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-30 16:05 | Report Abuse

Dear ChralesT,
Glad to hear from your again.
Yes. Mr. Wong is still with me in PT Musimmas. He is doing well and now he had to accompany boss to Europe for plant visit and solving process problems for our Europe colleague.
Yes. OKB already retired and I have an enjoyable ‘Bak Kut Teh” with him near his house in Taman Berkeley during the 3th day of Chinese New year.
I am glad you know both of them.

Thank you

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-03-30 16:12 | Report Abuse

I heard abt u too when i was orang minyak last time...just never meet before

A small world...lol

Posted by probability > 2019-03-30 16:13 | Report Abuse

this 98 crisis was initially started due to high debt to GDP ratio of Thailand right? Does it mean Malaysia still has a high risk due to its high debt and worsening regional market due to trade-war?

Posted by probability > 2019-03-30 16:20 | Report Abuse

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gdp

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/external-debt

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-30 16:21 | Report Abuse

Dear charlesT,
A small world indeed. Hope someday we can have "bak kut teh" together with Mr. Wong and Mr. Ong.
By the way lately make any good profit from front running KoonBee stocks?

Thank you

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-03-30 16:23 | Report Abuse

Place rm100k with OTB then u can hardly miss any KB stocks..no worries

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:00 | Report Abuse

1998 won't happen so easily anymore

It was so terrifying because wrong policy was adopted to cure the economic illness - The kwailos taught us to raise interest rate during economic downturn

When Mahathir finally realised the mistake and reversed course to cut interest rate (after pegging RM), things started normalising


Posted by probability > Mar 30, 2019 4:13 PM | Report Abuse

this 98 crisis was initially started due to high debt to GDP ratio of Thailand right? Does it mean Malaysia still has a high risk due to its high debt and worsening regional market due to trade-war?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:02 | Report Abuse

I made 12000% return within 1 year by entering the market during bottom in 1998

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:03 | Report Abuse

This kind of opportunity will not happen anymore

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 17:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2019-03-30 17:16 | Report Abuse

hmm..interesting corrective action...

low interest rate encourages money flow from bank to equity..and spending....it acts as a stimulus..

but has weakening effect on currency if economy does not grow in line....

high interest rate has the opposite effect...it scoops money back to the banks..

it can strengthen the currency if growth in economy is still high with a high interest rate...


guess the currency is like the rope between equity market and banks...

something like playing kites i guess..you cant pull or let go too much

to maintain the currency strength against world / USD




Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 30, 2019 5:00 PM | Report Abuse

1998 won't happen so easily anymore

It was so terrifying because wrong policy was adopted to cure the economic illness - The kwailos taught us to raise interest rate during economic downturn

When Mahathir finally realised the mistake and reversed course to cut interest rate (after pegging RM), things started normalising

Posted by GGecko > 2019-03-30 17:25 | Report Abuse

Those painful years..indeed. I sincerely hope we don't have to go thru it again. KLCI was collapsing from 1997, culminating to a low of 268 in 1988. Maybank was only about RM4!!. Our then finance minister listened n subscribed to IMF policy n raised interest rate, if I m not mistaken to double digit! My housing loan of 1100 suddenly shot up to 1500. It was the then PM that normalised the interest rate back to its normalcy. Many businesses went down under n people lost their jobs. Every month end when I received my pay check ..I said thank God I still have my paycheck..

Posted by GGecko > 2019-03-30 17:27 | Report Abuse

*1998

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:28 | Report Abuse

Maybank was 2.5