Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 15:18 | Report Abuse

a complete guide to making money..............lol..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 15:18 | Report Abuse

attack and defend...............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 15:19 | Report Abuse

so now how? financial markets bullish, realists bearish...........

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-20 15:19 | Report Abuse

Good afternoon Philip,
Great story telling and agreed, “If you want to apply margin, buy the guaranteed companies. The blue chips” So since when Gkent is a blue chip company: BN time of RM 4.00+ drop to 43 cents on March 19 2020.

QL is the real blue chip, Philip should margin finance and all in this guaranteed blue chips company. So why he sold QL at RM 8.60 and when is his last time topping up QL?

Thank you
PS: Again “Cakap tak serupa bikin”

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 15:43 | Report Abuse

a complete guide to making money........

every thing is here..........

- buying shares as piece of business
- stock selections
- how to use financing


the only thing lacking is a crystal ball to see into the future...

- a V shape recovery or or a W / double bottom testing the previous lows??
- the significance difference good timing can make.

so now how? financial markets bullish, realists bearish...........

Posted by patrick8 > 2020-04-20 15:48 | Report Abuse

Philip, I have never used margin financing but now have a better understanding on how it should be used. I would summarized to say, this story is also a part of your share investment journey. Thanks for sharing.

Posted by maincon > 2020-04-20 15:48 | Report Abuse

lolz, true or not

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 16:03 | Report Abuse

Canslim is good, very good........

but u still need a Philip to give life to it.....

u still need the ability to make good decisions.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-04-20 16:16 | Report Abuse

As an investor who never use margin before like KC Chong, cant understand why he always see margin is dangerous...earlier i thought he got burnt by margin b4....

Anyway some uncles i knew thought stock mkt is very dangerous as they were burnt badly in 1998...ever since that some dare not touch stocks till today

Posted by GGecko > 2020-04-20 16:17 | Report Abuse

Bcos it is a v sharp double edged sword. Use prudently, one can be an instant millionaire during bull run. On the other hand, use recklessly, one can lost everything, his underwear, wife family even his life ..bankruptcy

Posted by GGecko > 2020-04-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

Or, he can loss 90 percent of his wealth..

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 16:22 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-04-20-story-h1506048288-Peter_Schiff_Home_Prices_to_Drop_Commercial_Real_Estate_Defaults_Econom.jsp


isn't that reality too?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-04-20 16:22 | Report Abuse

Even without margin one also can lose 90% of his wealth

For example if u bought Xinquan.....

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 16:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by GGecko > Apr 20, 2020 4:20 PM | Report Abuse

Or, he can loss 90 percent of his wealth..
=========

its yin yang...........the article addressed the issue very well.........

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-20 17:06 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Without crystal ball to see into the future and with never see before Covid-19 effect better safe than sorry. So no hurry buy in batch with your spare cash.
A
uthor: AmInvest | Publish date: Mon, 13 Apr 2020, 9:47 AM
We maintain SELL on Petronas Chemicals Group (PChem) with unchanged forecasts and fair value of RM3.25/share, pegged to a 10% discount to FY20F book value. This implies an FY20F EV/EBITDA of 5.4x, which represents 3 standard deviations below its 2-year average of 7.6x and dividend yield of 3%.

Author: rhboskres | Publish date: Fri, 27 Mar 2020, 5:03 PM
George Kent Malaysia - Going Against the Flow; D/G to SELL
Downgrade to SELL from Neutral, new TP of MYR0.43 from MYR1.04, 20% downside with 4.6% yield. We believe valuations will remain depressed amidst prevailing macroeconomic risks, weak market sentiment and dash for cash liquidation activities. We note the lack of visible re-rating catalysts given the unfavourable ripple effect caused by the recent oil price collapse, leading to potentially reduced infrastructure spending by the Government and unclear policy imperatives.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-20 17:11 | Report Abuse

Coming from someone who invests in insas and xinquan, you should leave your bitterness behind and read properly, instead of confirmation bias and picking out only what you want to hear and see instead of the entire picture.

Nevermind, let me repeat again,
"When applying margin, you use it the same way, to collect undervalued stocks and cheap downtrodden prices. "

QL and Topglove has been performing beyond expectations, they are wonderful companies, but I have never said they were cheap and downtrodden. In fact, my exact words was you can rarely buy wonderful companies for cheap prices. Paying a fair price for a wonderful company in my opinion is a far better choice in the long run than buying garbage and being 30 biggest shareholders in companies like xinquan.

But using margin finance? You should only use that in buying undervalued wonderful companies selling at a low price due to temporary situations.

PS: the INSAS situation is not temporary, but a fundamental problem with the company.

P.P.S stop telling me what stocks to buy or what to do it taking credit for other people's hard work. If you don't agree with my investment methods, why are you buying Star?



>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Apr 20, 2020 3:19 PM | Report Abuse

Good afternoon Philip,
Great story telling and agreed, “If you want to apply margin, buy the guaranteed companies. The blue chips” So since when Gkent is a blue chip company: BN time of RM 4.00+ drop to 43 cents on March 19 2020.

QL is the real blue chip, Philip should margin finance and all in this guaranteed blue chips company. So why he sold QL at RM 8.60 and when is his last time topping up QL?

Thank you
PS: Again “Cakap tak serupa bikin”

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-20 17:24 | Report Abuse

Ok. Do let me know what results you get from following bank analysts and their recommendations. It is so wishy washy you night as buy a stock recommendation from kcchongnz with all the good it will do you in the long run.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Apr 20, 2020 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Without crystal ball to see into the future and with never see before Covid-19 effect better safe than sorry. So no hurry buy in batch with your spare cash.
A
uthor: AmInvest | Publish date: Mon, 13 Apr 2020, 9:47 AM
We maintain SELL on Petronas Chemicals Group (PChem) with unchanged forecasts and fair value of RM3.25/share, pegged to a 10% discount to FY20F book value. This implies an FY20F EV/EBITDA of 5.4x, which represents 3 standard deviations below its 2-year average of 7.6x and dividend yield of 3%.

Author: rhboskres | Publish date: Fri, 27 Mar 2020, 5:03 PM
George Kent Malaysia - Going Against the Flow; D/G to SELL
Downgrade to SELL from Neutral, new TP of MYR0.43 from MYR1.04, 20% downside with 4.6% yield. We believe valuations will remain depressed amidst prevailing macroeconomic risks, weak market sentiment and dash for cash liquidation activities. We note the lack of visible re-rating catalysts given the unfavourable ripple effect caused by the recent oil price collapse, leading to potentially reduced infrastructure spending by the Government and unclear policy imperatives.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 17:27 | Report Abuse

d by Sslee > Apr 20, 2020 5:06 PM | Report Abuse


uthor: AmInvest | Publish date: Mon, 13 Apr 2020, 9:47 AM
We maintain SELL on Petronas Chemicals Group (PChem) with unchanged forecasts and fair value of RM3.25/share, pegged to a 10% discount to FY20F book value. This implies an FY20F EV/EBITDA of 5.4x, which represents 3 standard deviations below its 2-year average of 7.6x and dividend yield of 3%.
=========

my son is an IB analyst............I sell u a secret of the industry........those analysts not that good one..........

they like to use jargon to impress and to hide their lack of conviction ....that's all............

Their job is not to help u make money but to make sure they still have a job even when u lose your pants.........hahahaha

Posted by Hush77 > 2020-04-20 17:30 | Report Abuse

Now old man promoting comfort..
Like so very desperate...to make back lost fortune..
Maybe also on margin

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-20 17:31 | Report Abuse

Haha Philip,
My buying in STAR is base on the damage done by LGE on STAR will be slowly undone by PN government and not base on you great creative fanciful story telling.

I am trying to say the worst is not over yet as Covid-19 is very new to the world and no one know how it will play out.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-20 17:40 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
Your master so fast already back with Comfort glove.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 17:41 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNGFep6rncY

Why the majority is always wrong | Paul Rulkens | TEDxMaastricht

Extraordinary returns can only come from those with original thinking and the conviction to go with it..........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 17:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > Apr 20, 2020 5:40 PM | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
Your master so fast already back with Comfort glove.
===========

well........85 years old like 95 years old Mahathir cannot change one as long as they still have their last breathe.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 17:58 | Report Abuse

Star fits all the criteria........

Kick myself for not paying attention.............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 18:00 | Report Abuse

comfort............KYY still got bullet to control the price? I really don't know lah...............

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-20 19:18 | Report Abuse

in either case, take my advice and take this golden opportunity to invest in wonderful companies. This Covid virus will not last, no matter how much you believe it will never end.

If it does get worse, then whatever asset you did invest in will not matter at all anyway.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-20 19:55 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Your advice taken with thanks.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 19:55 | Report Abuse

y Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 20, 2020 7:18 PM | Report Abuse

whatever asset you did invest in will not matter at all anyway.
===========

there is another way............its called cash is king.........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 20:01 | Report Abuse

its also called timing is every thing .........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 20:03 | Report Abuse

good bad ugly.........there is a time for every thing........

last few sessions....the less quality the better............its all retail work...........and retail very fickle...........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 20:19 | Report Abuse

Malaysia $ 260 billion bail out fund.............what to bet? stock picking?

then bet on who gets their hands into it............

there is no transparency in Malaysia....no idea who has received what....u have to operate in the dark....unless u got insider information.


Philips way of choosing stocks still apply? Probably not..............probably a smarter way to invest is ....the worse the better, the political linked and those dropped the most the better..........the useless bumps gets the most favors.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 20:22 | Report Abuse

Air asia/ AAX are obvious candidates........

Pos, Felda, banks, Airport, are also obvious candidates.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 20:26 | Report Abuse

free market? There is no free market in the world now.

Every country has adopted the Wall Street / FED model..........its crony capitalism every where u look..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 20:27 | Report Abuse

its print money , its realists vs printing money and people betting printing money wins over realists.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 22:42 | Report Abuse

if it is crony capitalism , then its a different way to pick shares............lol........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-20 23:42 | Report Abuse

In the oil markets.........After the production cuts , oil rallied from $ 20 to $ 30.......and now drop to $ 10.............all in the last 2 weeks..........lol.........

Didn't the people who push oil to $ 30 know 1 billion barrels consumption was lost in 1 month due to the lock downs and running cut of storage tanks was well known even then.........and the traders are supposed to be pros too.......

in the equity markets, the rebound from the March lows have been very fierce.........( I am sure in the context of money printing by governments around the world and people are naturally optimistic)


in the post corona world, is there still a thing called buy and hold, I wonder? We will have to wait and see.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 01:39 | Report Abuse

oil for May deliveries has drop to....u guess it, zero..........nobody wants physical oil because they have no where to store it......


WTI for July deliveries is $ 27............timing is every thing.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 01:47 | Report Abuse

there will be some listed companies who are long oil futures and u will not know who.......

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 05:19 | Report Abuse

What does the price of oil have to do with companies like QL and GKENT? And how does it affect users who can stockpile like dialog? Or users who can take advantage of cheap oil to produce more product like PCHEM in their new storage space? Or how will price of oil affect newspapers? Or people using bicycles?

One thing you do have to avoid are specific companies that are fully in exploration and extraction activities like sapura, dayang and the like.

You should also avoid companies that are direct competitors, like Palm oil plantation with no cash.

But then again those companies producing bicycles like Merida should be ok right?

In fact, buy and hold will be more relevant today more than ever. Those companies that are badly hit will have rock bottom valuations due to market fear, and if you believe that 10 dollar oil will be the new normal, then the goal is to search for the companies than can best take advantage. But if you think that oil price will recover one day ( just not tomorrow), then isn't buying the best companies and holding them until price goes up one day the best option to take?

As for cash is king, it is only king of it allows you to buy something of more value than cash. Many people forget that cash by itself does not multiply. Gold doesn't multiply. The only thing that does is a good, hardworking business that produces earnings and cash. If you keep money under your bed at all times, you will soon realize how important time can be.

Time my friend, is King.


>>>>>>>>>>>


Philips way of choosing stocks still apply? Probably not..............probably a smarter way to invest is ....the worse the better, the political linked and those dropped the most the better..........the useless bumps gets the most favors.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 05:30 | Report Abuse

Qqq I would really honestly like to find out, as in the 80's - 90's I was a trader was well, during the good times I felt invincible as anything I traded made money in a week. But as you know just a few years later I lost everything as everything I traded lost money no matter what I bought, death by a thousand cuts even as I applied the same exact successful strategies earlier, the market changed.

In the long run, how successful has active trading been for you?

I'm sure you must be doing well, but from a CAGR standpoint, how long have you been investing and what is the long term compounding rate been?

We don't have to discuss figures and stock buys, but just the long term viability so far. If you can share it will be helpful, as I have always enjoyed trading, just never been good at it.

>>>>>>
https://money.com/swimming-naked-when-the-tide-goes-out/

Posted by Plantermen > 2020-04-21 05:41 | Report Abuse

Older companies always have the issue of adapting to the fast changing landscape. We have seen the 2nd or 3rd generations run companies trying to expand thier families run business into something new. WITHOUT the right expertise or going into another country dooinng business is big risk { especially using borrowed funds} in today landscape spells trouble.
NEVER invest in countries where laws can be changed or fundamental human rights never respected or sometimes mob rules prevails. We have witness how the 97-98 reformasi movement in Indonesia degraded into open rioting when hundreds and thousands of its own people murder by the rioters. History teach us something the politician never learns.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 07:15 | Report Abuse

So USA with its KKK, and Donald trump should be avoided?

We have seen the 2nd or 3rd generations run companies trying to expand thier families run business into something new. - we should avoid investing in Toyota, Samsung, Nebraska furniture mart, sees candy, iscar, Walmart,


There are issues with fundamental human rights everywhere. I would change investing in countries to investing in companies, which I fully agree with.
Management who profess " do as I say, but not as I do" should be avoided at all costs. Companies who avoid paying a decent wage do so because they are not capable, not because they are smart. I would certainly avoid them.

>>>>>>>>

NEVER invest in countries where laws can be changed or fundamental human rights never respected or sometimes mob rules prevails.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-21 08:38 | Report Abuse

I like this;

"WHEN THE TIME COMES TO BUY, YOU WON'T WANT TO."

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-21 10:22 | Report Abuse

haha,
I think "WHEN THE TIME COMES TO BUY, YOU WON'T WANT TO" because you run out of gas and debt is piling up.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-21 10:33 | Report Abuse

Haha, Crude oil is so cheap now “WHEN THE TIME COMES TO BUY” but Banks pull the trigger (withdrawn credit line) and now you had to files for Bankruptcy.

Former Singapore Billionaire Lim’s Oil Giant Files For Bankruptcy
Hin Leong Trading, one of Singapore's largest independent oil traders, said that it failed to declare “about $800 million in futures losses over the years,” Reuters reported, citing a court filing dated April 17. The company is seeking a six-month moratorium on its roughly $3.85 billion debt load owed to 23 banks.

The company’s founder and director, Lim Oon Kuim, 77, was cited in the filing as taking responsibility for directing the finance department to conceal hundreds of millions of dollars in losses from appearing on the company’s financial statements.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 10:59 | Report Abuse

Anyone who long May contracts die lah.......WTI Close at minus US$ 30.

who hedges oil? AAX, Air Asia, Heng Yuan, Petron, who else? only they know how they are doing.......

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 11:14 | Report Abuse

exactly, this is when margin financing becomes a smart decision. When no one wants to hold equities, you should be the one taking a big loan and going all in on wonderful companies.

This is why we respect Warren so much, his stocks dont go up during the gaga years , when everyone starts to say value investing is dead. He holds cash.

Then when everyone is scared to invest, he comes in buying up all the good companies out there. that is how we should be doing things.

Gas and debt piling up only happens when you are so euphoric that you put in a lot of money to buy during the speculative top, and leave out any safety net to buy during the downturns.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee haha,
I think "WHEN THE TIME COMES TO BUY, YOU WON'T WANT TO" because you run out of gas and debt is piling up.
21/04/2020 10:22 AM

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 11:18 | Report Abuse

Yes, obviously when you have been playing with debt and doing jumping smash forever sooner or later you will run out of breath. That is why I avoid trading, and using credit to trade the market. I only believe in buying huge undervalued downtrodden stocks when using credit (margin finance) to buy stocks.

My biggest losses ever were in buying call/put options, with the threat of time over my neck, taking huge debt to basically bet on the market calls, which no one ever knows in the short term.

Never again.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Haha, Crude oil is so cheap now “WHEN THE TIME COMES TO BUY” but Banks pull the trigger (withdrawn credit line) and now you had to files for Bankruptcy.

Former Singapore Billionaire Lim’s Oil Giant Files For Bankruptcy
Hin Leong Trading, one of Singapore's largest independent oil traders, said that it failed to declare “about $800 million in futures losses over the years,” Reuters reported, citing a court filing dated April 17. The company is seeking a six-month moratorium on its roughly $3.85 billion debt load owed to 23 banks.

The company’s founder and director, Lim Oon Kuim, 77, was cited in the filing as taking responsibility for directing the finance department to conceal hundreds of millions of dollars in losses from appearing on the company’s financial statements.
21/04/2020 10:33 AM

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 11:32 | Report Abuse

buy and hold vs trading.....any past records also no use.......who knows future will look like the past?

me? over the years, I also got talent in spotting quality companies when they are still young........like Hartalega, TopGlove, Scientex, Vitrox, QL, AeonCr, Of course I regret I am not a long term investor and never know how to hold on to these shares. Just hold on to these shares over the years would have been better than any thing else.

Buy and hold has one advantage. Don't have to think about re-investments. For traders, RE-investments is big problem . In good times, trade and make money and buy other shares similarly also have gone up.......In the big picture, a useless activity.


of course, smart are those who sold in January and re- enter in mid March. That would be perfect but I am not perfect. The writing was on the wall, how come I not smart enough? points to ponder for me............I am sure they are others who sold in January and re-enter in mid March.



For traders, the biggest problem is win more lose more win less lose less. In it has nothing to do with intelligence or information and every thing to do with attitude , ego and psychology. ..and self control.


So, those the problems of a trader.

For buy and hold, the biggest problem is this is the biggest upheaval of a life time.

People, especially successful people are born optimists, as otherwise they would not have been successful in the first place.

so now, it is really realists vs optimists...............realists vs financial market.

After the rally from mid March, is it a dead cat bounce? hahahahaha


Whatever it is , for people to benefit .........they need to be proactive, consistent, have confidence .............These 3 qualities will determine the winners.

I better write down these 3 words.........

PROACTIVE, CONSISTENT, CONFIDENCE.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 12:39 | Report Abuse

qqq33333333 > Apr 21, 2020 11:32 AM | Report Abuse X

of course, smart are those who sold in January and re- enter in mid March. That would be perfect but I am not perfect. The writing was on the wall, how come I not smart enough? points to ponder for me............I am sure they are others who sold in January and re-enter in mid March.
==========

actually I entered Jan with a lot of caution and lots of cash.

but as the market dropped, I make the most basic beginner mistake of catching the falling knife too early...........it is well known more people die from trading shares when the game is over than those trading shares when the game is on.