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174 comment(s). Last comment by David 2020-04-29 13:17

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-25 17:26 | Report Abuse

One thing I always try my best to convince new investors is to forget about this ludicrous concept. PE in no way shape or form gives you any indication of how "long" it will take to recoup your investment. It is simply a measure of the confidence Mr market has in the company. As a real comparison for example, take STAR MEDIA for example. Does the fact that it is selling at PE49 mean it will take 49 years to earn back your investment? Obviously not. Why? Assets and cash and borrowings are not reflected in PE.

In fact, if you could cough up 280 million in cash to buy out, you would immediately get 380 million in cash, on top of additional factory and property, and zero borrowings. Not bad for paying pe49 to recoup immediately the money used to buy the company.

How is that related to any return on equity?

>>>>>>>>>

Another way to look at PE is the number of years one required to recoup the money used to buy the company, that is 54 years based on RM 8 per share (close 24/4/20).

Happy investing.

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-25 17:37 | Report Abuse

Haha,
Philip only cherry pick one parameter PE to defend the undefendable of so many parameters that indicate QL is overprice and it long term prospect do not justified the PE of 54

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 17:39 | Report Abuse

no one can defeat the myth of PE...its too ingrained already...


I'm convinced, beyond the maths formulas, the passport of success has 3 words written on it...........proactive, consistent and confidence.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 17:41 | Report Abuse

y Sslee > Apr 25, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

Haha,
Philip only cherry pick one parameter PE to defend the undefendable of so many parameters that indicate QL is overprice and it long term prospect do not justified the PE of 54
===========


not true....in both theory and practice, Philips has written a lot of stuffs that explains why QL remains a good buy....and shown by practise........

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 17:45 | Report Abuse

sslee.......

How much does fund managers pay for predictability, good management, corporate governance?

A lot...........and a lot more than u can imagine..........

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 17:45 | Report Abuse

sslee

dun worry
I will short QL to less than RM4.00 per share for you to buy, soon, very soon, coming next change.

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-25 17:52 | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
RM 4 is still too expensive . Can you be more kind to short till below RM 2 than I might consider to buy.
Thanks in advance.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-25 17:54 | Report Abuse

The other points are also interesting. Here is my opinion of it.

QL has 4,000 employees. With revenues of roughly 1 billion USD, they effectively have each employee generating 250,000 in revenue. ( They are 1 million ringgit per employee, which is very very efficient for the scale).

Tyson food has 122,000 employees. With revenues of 40 billion, they effectively have each employee generating 320,000 in revenue.

CP food also has roughly 126,000 employees. With revenues of roughly 17 billion usd, they generate around 135,000 usd

Basically the point I was trying to make is QL revenue generation per employee is still statistically not saturated yet, and very efficient.

In terms of total market growth, despite QL size, it is still showing a huge potential to grow in a very very big market,

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 17:58 | Report Abuse

One more lesson corporate captains have to learn is...........don't screw up people......market can be very unforgiving and have long memories..

For example, why shares that KYY has played before never recover? All the furniture shares, Chinwell, steel counters, Hengyuan, Sendai, Jaks, finds it almost impossible to recover...same goes with Insas.

There is this thing called once bitten twice shy, got raped before no more virgin..........that is why a lot of BOD in KL quite scared and do not welcome KYY messing with their shares..............

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:09 | Report Abuse

Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 25, 2020 5:54 PM | Report Abuse

In terms of total market growth, despite QL size, it is still showing a huge potential to grow in a very very big market,

===========

its called the addressable market..........Fund managers will pay a lot for it if u can show u are good and capturing market share in a large addressable market.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:12 | Report Abuse

no one can defeat the myth of PE...its too ingrained already...


I'm convinced, beyond the maths formulas, the passport to success has 3 words written on it...........proactive, consistent and confidence.

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 18:19 | Report Abuse

sslee

dun worry

all is not rosy in QL land

the available cash in hand of RM327 million is actually not sufficient to roll over those short term BAs plus RC of RM625 million with a comfortable margin of safety.
Accountants must be sweating daily to keep track of it.
Very very stressful.
Small error will crack the QL egg when someone drops the ball.
Investors dun like this sort of thing.
People know that "what can go wrong will go wrong" and ball will be inevitably dropped.
Its the Laws of Probability and Statistics

QL unfortunately launched those Family Marts and hardcored unproductive assets at a critical time.

I would expect the 2020 net cash profits to be closer to 2018's RM70 to RM100 million rather than 2019's RM400 million

RM70 to RM100 million net cash profits is hell of a small testes for this type of company.

comparatively Serba will be a gold mine plus uranium mine plus glove factory compared to QL.

and we already know that Serba is financially distressed right now.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:24 | Report Abuse

sslee.....why are u bashing good matured approach to stock market? why u spend so much time trying to talk down QL...while QL is one of the key success stories in Bursa since listing.....................

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:29 | Report Abuse

ilurker.......

Philip stock pick happens to be the favorite of long term funds in Bursa ......they do not disappoint, have not disappointed......


so...what is your criteria for stock picking?

only penny stocks satisfy you?

Insas? or Gdex?

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 18:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-25 18:31 | Report Abuse

As for depreciation and assets. Here is how I look at it,

For biological assets, the investment and turnaround time is not measured in months, but in years. Take for example plantations. To get a sizable investing, you would need to invest tens to hundreds of millions. And it has to be done in stages, plantations need 3-4 years to have a minimum yield. And you need to invest to the future in building a far larger refinery than necessary, just so that it can catch up to the growth in ffb processing. The returns would not be reflected until years later while staff and professionals salaries need to be paid today to cater for future demand. You can't just hire sslee to join the company at the beginning to plan and design, fire him in the middle, then rehire him back when the entire plantation is ready for full operations, can you?

Same goes for egg and frozen food operations, there will always be a cycle of aggressive growth and development of ppe, followed by a period of growth of biological assets, then followed by the availability, sales price monopoly due to economies of scale, and followed by increased demand in goods.

Currently the price of L size eggs in Vietnam is around myr 60 cents per egg. Malaysia in comparison is around 40 cents.

As QL has doubled the output of eggs in Vietnam and Indonesia, with a capex of 400 million. As their capex period is on the line of 2-3 years cycle, I believe there is no way for revenue growth and capex to follow a linear line, and it would wrong to make that assumption.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ql-resources-optimistic-about-beating-record-fy19-performance

>>>>>>>>>

The operating expenses to revenue are unfortunately increasing yearly. Diving into the cost make-up, the two biggest item is depreciation of PPE and staff costs.

Staff productivity is reducing, the trend is downward. Revenue to depreciation is dropping at a higher rate. That is, the more plant, properties and equipment bought is giving less revenue every year.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:33 | Report Abuse

I am a trader.....good bad ugly also I trade...........but I do not bash good quality companies that are the source of pride in Bursa..............We should all celebrate good quality companies in Malaysia so we can produce more of the same....................

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 18:40 |

Post removed.Why?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:42 | Report Abuse

sslee/ lurker

penny stocks are for trading.....but while trading penny stocks , don't at the same time go bashing the highest quality stocks in Bursa and Bursa's pride and success stories......................

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-25 18:50 | Report Abuse

My understanding on family Mart also follows the same path. When they signed the 25 year contract to build 300 stores, it is not as simple as that.

For every area they expand to, they will need to build a centralised kitchen, fulfillment center, warehouse for deployment, the ppe and employee cost of which will be factored in today, but the earnings and revenues will only be factored in years from now in 2022, when their 300 stores will be complete and fully taking advantage of the centralised economies of scale.

The erratic cash flow in blue is a perfect example of them moving forward with building the capex first to minimize the cost of scale in the future.

Using a straightforward analysis like that leaves much to be explained in terms of building a business.

I am sad to see you go as an investor of QL, but willing sellers and willing buyers. There are many investors holding QL at pe50( including myself), because we see the growth story still intact, and large scale agriculture is one of the most stable industries out there.

If I may ask, what commodity did you switch to in the USA? I am interested to know and understand more, as you said it went up by 17% even during covid-19 crisis. Amazing!

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-25 18:50 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Before you talk about addressable market for food producers you must knows:
1. What are the natural resources you have in producing the foods? (Cheap land, climate condition, fisheries area, seed, agriculture technology, manpower, logistic, cheap loan and etc)
2. Do you have the controlled of these resources?
3. If you expand the business oversea are you hindered by the law that protected the local competitors?
4. What are your competitive edges against your competitors?

So tell me how QL fared against CP?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 18:57 | Report Abuse

sslee/ lurker


They are specialist houses in HK who are whistle blowers and write short side reports of shares/ companies that they find.....

Those are high quality work with a lot of experience , investigation and whistle blowers..............not the kind of rambling and baseless stuffs of this lurker for a forum such as this.............

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 19:03 |

Post removed.Why?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-25 19:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > Apr 25, 2020 6:50 PM | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Before you talk about addressable market for food producers you must knows:
1. What are the natural resources you have in producing the foods? (Cheap land, climate condition, fisheries area, seed, agriculture technology, manpower, logistic, cheap loan and etc)
2. Do you have the controlled of these resources?
3. If you expand the business oversea are you hindered by the law that protected the local competitors?
4. What are your competitive edges against your competitors?

So tell me how QL fared against CP?
==============


questions questions questions and doubters there will always be.....if the opinion is that it is not worth your while, then avoid it lah.....avoid it, u still have 2000 companies to choose from.....

but sslee..............your fear of high PE stock such as Vitrox, QL, collapsing have not played out....and that is the point....even SCIB has promptly recovered........

perhaps the trouble is not how the market evaluate these stocks....but how u evaluate these stocks..........hahahahaha.....

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-25 19:18 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
i3lurker is a sarcastic doomsayer reminds us of our own many fallacies.

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 19:25 | Report Abuse

sslee

A
CP provides the following to their competitors
1) technical advice
2) veterinary services
3) low cost financing
4) feed formulation
basically CP believes in mutual co-prosperity and harmony in existence

B
QL does 100% hostile takeover

you actually cannot compare the 2 companies at all.

valuelurker

1,133 posts

Posted by valuelurker > 2020-04-25 19:32 | Report Abuse

Exit those that are in profit, and hold cash and wait, or rotate into other sectors, good

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 19:41 | Report Abuse

why did CP help out small farm competitors?
sometimes even with emergency loans to help out.

Small farms have many economic advantages. Local farmers generate a local economy in their rural communities. An American study showed that small farms with incomes of $100,000 or less spend almost 95 percent of their farm-related expenses within their local communities. The same study took in comparison the fact that farms with incomes greater than $900,000 spend less than 20 percent of their farm-related expenses in the local economy.[2] Thus, small-scale agriculture supports local economy.

Agricultural productivity is variously measured, and large-scale farming is often less efficient than small sustainable farms.

Industrial single crop creates a high output per worker whilst, small-scale farmers produce more food per acre of land.[3]

Small-scale agriculture often sell products directly to the consumers. Disintermediation gives the farmer the profit that would otherwise go to the wholesaler, the distributor and the supermarket. About two thirds of the selling price would actually be lost for product marketing. Meanwhile, if farmers sell their products directly to consumers, they recover the totality of their product value.[4]

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-25 20:46 | Report Abuse

Dear i3lurkers,
Agree. Agriculture should benefit the small local farmers, teach them and provides them with seeds, finance and technology so that they can maximize the land use to produce more sustainable foods.

Provide local farmers with high yielding seeds and teach them best agriculture practices to produces grains for human and animal. Then provide them with livestock/poultry/fish, prawn farming and provide them or teach them how to prepare feed formulation from their harvested grains for the livestock/poultry/fish/prawn.

Then you can buy back these sustainable and environment friendly grains /eggs/milk/livestock/fish/prawn process it and market it to the world.

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-25 20:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-26 00:41 | Report Abuse

I have tried to teach sslee this concept for a while now. But he is very stubborn, head still very hard. He still hold on to incomplete concepts are assume verbatim PE low is good PE high is bad as Bible.

Very hard to teach old dog new tricks.

But I might break through yet. He bought Star Media, a PE50 stock and if actually planning to sell it at 40.

So those who say buy high PE company is wrong, and it might take 50 years to earn back his investment in Star... Well, investing is a lot more complicated than that.

As for GDEX boy, he has a great many comments. But every single one of it negative. So might as well just forget even asking the little troll. He is incapable of making a proper valuation in stocks.

Too much bullshit.

>>>>>>>>>
but sslee..............your fear of high PE stock such as Vitrox, QL, collapsing have not played out....and that is the point....even SCIB has promptly recovered........

perhaps the trouble is not how the market evaluate these stocks....but how u evaluate these stocks..........hahahahaha.....
25/04/2020 7:17 PM

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-26 08:42 | Report Abuse

Please go ahead and bash Ql. While you are at it, please all bash the rest of my high PE stocks like topglove (also,50 years to get back your investment), Star media, gkent,pchem,yinson, serba. My full portfolio list is here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp


Once you are done bashing. Please show me your portfolio and teach me, explain to me how you chose better performing stocks than I did over the past few years.

Thank you.

I stop here.

GDEX. INSAS. QL.

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-26 08:47 |

Post removed.Why?

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-26 09:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-26 09:14 | Report Abuse

Good morning Philip,
You know very well what the quantitative and qualitative of QL are. That is why you sold QL at RM 8.60 and did not top up QL when it drops to inter-day low of RM 6.50 on March 17 2020.

In investment no one parameter fit all. Please allow me to copy and paste beside PE for growth stock you need to calculate the PEG ratio as below:

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio gives analysts a good fundamental indication of what investors are currently paying for a stock in relation to the company's earnings. One weakness of the P/E ratio, however, is that its calculation does not take into account the future expected growth of a company. The PEG ratio represents a fuller—and hopefully—more accurate valuation measure than the standard P/E ratio.

The PEG ratio builds upon the P/E ratio by factoring growth into the equation. Factoring in future growth adds an important element to stock valuation since equity investments represent a financial interest in a company's future earnings.

The price/earnings to growth ratio, or PEG ratio, is a stock valuation measure that investors and analysts can use to get a broad assessment of a company's performance and evaluate investment risk. In theory, a
PEG ratio value of 1 represents a perfect correlation between the company's market value and its projected earnings growth. PEG ratios higher than 1 are generally considered unfavorable, suggesting a stock is overvalued. Conversely, ratios lower than 1 are considered better, indicating a stock is undervalued.

PEG=PE/EGR
Where: EGR = Earnings growth rate over years(past years or future years forecast)

Other Factors to Consider
The PEG ratio doesn't take into account other factors that can help determine a company's value.

For example, the PEG doesn't look at the amount of cash a company keeps on its balance sheet, which could add value if it's a large amount.
Other factors analysts consider when evaluating stocks include the price-to-book ratio (P/B) ratio. This can help them determine if a stock is genuinely undervalued or if the growth estimates used to calculate the PEG ratio are simply inaccurate. To calculate the P/B ratio, divide the stock's price per share by its book value per share.

As for STAR what is the P/B ratio? The earning of STAR drop since 2018 because PH government cut off all government business with STAR. With PN government revenue from Government will flow in again very soon.

Thank you

FoolsGold

654 posts

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-26 09:33 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 25, 2020 6:57 PM | Report Abuse

sslee/ lurker


They are specialist houses in HK who are whistle blowers and write short side reports of shares/ companies that they find.....

Those are high quality work with a lot of experience , investigation and whistle blowers..............not the kind of rambling and baseless stuffs of this lurker for a forum such as this.............


Ah,finally, this is v illuminating on Q, quite sure U did not get to know this, while cycling in Ulu Langat..
sori to disturb,just happen to c this blog just now..

teoct

480 posts

Posted by teoct > 2020-04-26 09:45 | Report Abuse

When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir? - John Maynard Keynes

Thank you all for reading.

qqq33 said: "How much does fund managers pay for predictability, good management, corporate governance? A lot...........and a lot more than u can imagine.........."

Now this probably answered why PE is so high for QL.


i3lurker & Sslee - thank you for the discussion on CP.


valuelurker - yes that is also a strategy.

Philip - many thanks also for the many comments on how well QL is managing. However, while the price for eggs in Vietnam is higher than Malaysia now, you know it, now I know it, thanks to you, CP probably knows it too and a whole hosts of others. They all will be looking into expanding production to capture this higher margin market and before you know it (probably at most 3 years), price war ensure and margin will be low again.

This is not a competition (at least to me) on who has a better portfolio. I for one admit I do not have a portfolio as good as you. I am learning and what I learned from my analysis of QL is that it has (to me) reached a point of diminishing return on new investment. And for the life of me couldn't understand why someone would pay so much for it.

qqq33 said it succinctly that a lot of fund managers are willing to pay a lot for predictability, good management etc etc that you articulated so concisely.

So, it is important to understand what caused it to be so valuable - that is predictability, good management, good governance. And this is acceptable too.

To buy for growth, well NO (for me at least) and that is why i divested.

Mr Philip, it is OK to agree to disagree.

Happy investing everyone, stay home and stay safe.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-26 09:57 | Report Abuse

Stop referring to yourself as a third person, GDEX boy.

As for personal attacks, I am just pointing out an obvious point.

Out of your 3000+ comments, hope many were negative nature. How many were proven wrong?

I just made one simple example of your claims on 1000+ stocks better than Star, and you finally recommended GDEX. It turned out wrong. On a short term pump and dump basis you were proven to be analytically wrong. What more on long term investing basis?

We trust warren buffet because his annual letters are combined by his company results.

We listen to Peter Lynch and Howard marks not because of fancy writing but because of his portfolio results.

We listen to doctors because they have certification and medical experience.

You are trying to evaluate companies, but since you don't know what you are doing, you don't have any results to prove your thesis.

Why are you commenting and saying QL and serba is bankrupt? You are saying it is a bad investment. Sure, I can take you at face value. But what do you then consider a good investment and how have you profited from it?

It is simple and direct.

I am not doing a personal attacks against sslee or the group formerly known as i3lurker.

I am asking the basis of your analysis. And to understand your investment results that allow you to criticize with such verbiage. If you cannot backup your comments with results, then I suggest you take a less arrogant tone and a more analytical one of both the good and the bad.

QL has performed far better than all the stocks you have held over the long term. This is fact.

So end the confirmation bias.

QL deserves a deeper analysis instead of skin deep valuation.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Apr 26, 2020 9:07 AM | Report Abuse

Our comments on audited financials of QL

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-26 10:27 | Report Abuse

Noted and well received.

Dear teoct, I am very interested in this remark though.

"the counter (consumer sphere) has provided me with about +17% annualized, even under Covid 19 condition. Lucky, I presumed despite the analysis carried out."

Mind to share this counter which you are investing in? I would love to look it up, as I suspect you are a very brilliant investor as well. Who knows, I may join you in as well in participating in the growth of a wonderful company.

Investing in companies is not a zero sum game. Unlike options and forex, it doesn't have to be one individual earning at the cost of another's profits.

Let us learn something new everyday.

I find you very refreshing, and I can learn far more from you than many others who constantly repeat the same rethoric repeated from others.

>>>>>>>>

To buy for growth, well NO (for me at least) and that is why i divested.

Mr Philip, it is OK to agree to disagree.

Happy investing everyone, stay home and stay safe.
26/04/2020 9:45 AM

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-26 11:00 | Report Abuse

ed by FoolsGold > Apr 26, 2020 9:33 AM | Report Abuse

, while cycling in Ulu Langat..
==========

surprised u know this is one of my favorite routes. Did I mention in forum before?

or u got insider information?

teoct

480 posts

Posted by teoct > 2020-04-26 11:19 | Report Abuse

Philip, thank you.

A brilliant investor I am not, lucky maybe.

It is Ausnutria (HKG: 1717) - listed in Hong Kong but predominantly sell milk (cow and goat) infant formula milks in China. The sources for the milk are Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand.

Happy investing.

FoolsGold

654 posts

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-26 11:24 | Report Abuse

Q, its frm U lah, i read in passing only, kikikiki

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-26 11:27 | Report Abuse

y Sslee > Apr 26, 2020 9:14 AM | Report Abuse

The PEG ratio
==========


and while u are at it............its PEG plus X factor.

don't stop at maths.........consider all the other aspects of the share/ company/ track record/ future plans/ prospects/ shareholders/

the passport to success has the words proactive, consistent and confidence written on it.

With so many variables , its never easy to have confidence in any thing.....yet, to be successful, u have to have confidence.

Some lose confidence through over analysis, some gain confidence through experience,

Some lose confidence through minor set backs, some gain confidence through adjusting their time horizons.


X factor.............I consider X factor a very important aspect of share valuations.....what about you?

Is every thing reducible to maths formulas?

Why do fund managers pay a lot for predictability, good management, corporate governance?

PEG less than 1...........

PE of 20 requires annual growth of 20%............hahahaa

In the era of negative growth and zero interest rates, if u can some thing with annual growth of 20%..........the PE will be infinity and too scary for the conservatives to buy.....then how?

teoct

480 posts

Posted by teoct > 2020-04-26 11:34 | Report Abuse

qqq33 - what is the X-factors you talked about, appreciate if you will elaborate on this a bit .....

Thanks in advance.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-26 11:37 | Report Abuse

sslee...

how to transit from textbooks written in the 1950s into the corona virus world of 2020? How to transit from Wall Street into Bursa?

How can Warren the Bufalo find predictability in the Bursa ocean?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-26 11:47 | Report Abuse

y teoct > Apr 26, 2020 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

qqq33 - what is the X-factors you talked about, appreciate if you will elaborate on this a bit .....
==========

X factor also refers to the unknown but knowable factors...............such as corporate exercises, such as SCIB will gain from the Serba contracts, such as mergers and acquisitions and contributions from new businesses. ...................besides all the other points written above...........


what u can do is to put a guesstimate on the value of the X factors , beside your other valuation metrics of existing businesses.



Existing business = PE , PEG what ever

existing business + X factor = revised new valuation.

Sslee

6,830 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-26 11:51 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Do you know facebook or stoneco PE and PEG ratio?
qqq3 X factor is actually the goreng factor. Previously is Koon factor now Karim factor and tomorrow no one know.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-26 11:51 | Report Abuse

obviously, for a small little company like SCIB, the X factor will over whelm the valuation of existing business......there is no meaningful discussion of SCIB without talking about its X factor.


And so, any investment into SCIB is all about X factor...and some call it speculation............

i3lurker

14,420 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-26 11:57 | Report Abuse

Buffallo does non-stop publicity to promote his company shares as he needs people to buy at high, buy higher and buy at highest prices

Similarly some people with publicized portfolios also do the same thing.
They really really need people to continue supporting.
Buy high, BUY higher and BUY highest.

=> If nobody buys higher, they WILL DIE.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-26 11:58 | Report Abuse

sslee

live in the real world...stock market success belongs to those who live in the real world, the practical people with experience.............not the book worms types who bought a book at MPH and think that is the finality of stock market....or those who attended kc chong value investing seminar and thought that is the end all , be all..............

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