Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 14:11 | Report Abuse

when the market was crashing, you go nimble nimble..........soon also find u get 10 counters and all the bullets gone...........so, it shows diversification also no use when market is crashing..................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 14:13 | Report Abuse

eventually , the main thing to take away is this......

the passport to success is written with 3 words....


PROACTIVE, CONSISTENT, CONFIDENCE.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-28 14:19 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
I nimble nimble Gkent, Notion, Dayang, Naim, Hib all already sold for profit. Now still got Star not yet sold.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 14:26 | Report Abuse

No harm....gloves will make back every thing....and than Kpower and Scib will become billion $ companies.............

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-04-28 14:44 | Report Abuse

Teoct,

Thanks. Now time for me to dig for a copy of that report haha.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 14:51 | Report Abuse

Hi teoct, I concur. I finished reading the last few years of audited financial of feihe,mengniu, yili and junlebao, all the competitors are having a good room to grow.

The allegations I think is not long term damaging, and the short selling has in fact pressed the price to a reasonable valuation that thanks to you, I was able to take advantage of.

While I believe feihe may be the right call in the long term, as you have done a lot of research and decided to invest in ausnutria compared to feihe, I will defer to you on this end and nibble nibble a bit on ausnutria while I monitor further.

Let's see how in the next quarter results.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by teoct > Apr 28, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Choivo Capital - been a while since we last chat.

Management quickly appointed an independent review committee (IRC) (consisting of all independent directors) as well as an independent consultant (Deloitte Advisory (Hong Kong) Limited) reporting to the IRC (only) to carry out investigation on the allegations.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 14:57 | Report Abuse

Instead of using a one brush to paint everything, I invite you to look at the circumstances of selection and a simple fact: why would a Chinese company doing business in China, with assets and management in China decide to do IPO in Malaysia? The associated costs and inefficiency must give them some certain earnings for them to producer that kind of effort.

But in buying a company based in a foreign land, we can apply the same qualitative and quantitative analysis to decide if the business is something that you would like to invest in.



>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Apr 28, 2020 8:37 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning i3lurker,
Me, once bitten twice shy. I will never trust any Mainland Chinese again. Philip say I lose 2 million in Xingquan because I hold 3million+ shares that become toilet paper. I learnt my lesson and never again.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 15:21 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 28, 2020 2:57 PM |

why would a Chinese company doing business in China, with assets and management in China decide to do IPO in Malaysia?
============


hahaha........Its not China's fault...........Its our own incompetent regulators.

By the time they came to Malaysia, they have been kicked out of America......................................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 15:24 | Report Abuse

At that time our regulators think they have found a formula to turn Bursa into an international center with listings from around the world...................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 15:30 | Report Abuse

It was an audacious plan by lochins from China ( every country also got lochin) who took advantage of the loophole to collect millions from their IPO....and even more audacious when they collected from rights issues later.............hahahahaha.............

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 15:32 | Report Abuse

Sslee, I did not INSIST. I only stated a fact. And I only posted it one time. Unlike those who keep repeating INSAS assets over and over and over.

I did not like INSAS business model from the minute I saw it. As Teoct has tactfully said, let us agree to do disagree. As you u cannot convince me to like INSAS and invest in it, just as you cannot convince me to hate QL and divest it, let's just move on. You think INSAS is a wonderful company. I think it is an average one. As the only thing that can be said as minority shareholder is the long term stock performance and dividend yield, all we can do is let time show who is right or wrong.

For me, it is simple. I have take a 2 year Bak kut teh bet with stockraider and CharlesT to which investment carried the best 2 year returns. I hope that will settle the matter on INSAS.

As I understand it, INSAS main business model is capital allocation. All I am saying is I do not like how they structured their financial report and accounting methodology which unnecessarily complicates proper valuation of the company. If you have construed my statement as saying that I said INSAS BOD is a bunch of crooks, then I apologize to you.

>>>>>>>>>


Hence I do not understand why Philip insist INSAS core business is helping people buy and sell stocks, so it is easy for INSAS to game the system by setting the accounting up so that it ALWAYS looks nice on paper and his made up INSAS BOD to be crooks without even knowing them.

Thank you

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 15:42 | Report Abuse

As I never once said that INSAS BOD are crooks, please do not put words in my mouth. The information I meant to convey is that too much information is spent on other details and very little spent on explaining the revenues and earnings of the the business units so that we can track more detailed performance. The earnings and revenues of tribecar, numoni, roset, and all the other growth units. In Warren's buffets letter, he explains in detail what he bought, why he bought it, the revenues and earnings and growth projections.

Vigsys and vigcash were little more than a footnote of losses. Was roset sold for a profit or for a loss? Is done, melium group growing revenues, flatlining or reducing in revenue and earnings.

This is what I meant about setting up accounting so that it looks better on paper than it really is. Not that INSAS BOD are crooks, but relevant information ( at least to me) that would contribute in long term growth of INSAS is not translated and monitored quarterly.

>>>>>>>>>

It's ALWAYS a bargain price. For the last 5 years INSAS has remained a bargain.

Why?

When your core business is helping people buy and sell stocks, it is easy to game the system by setting the accounting up so that it ALWAYS looks nice on paper.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 15:44 | Report Abuse

the audited accounts of the Pte Ltd China companies may be correct.....but the lochins exploited the legal loop holes and lack of prosecution......

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 15:51 | Report Abuse

When I look at a company, this is always the first things that catch my view,

Quarter. Revenue. PBT. NP

31-Dec-2019 1,107,349 97,650 74,975 melium group
30-Sep-2019 1,072,852 84,330 69,872 melium group
30-Jun-2019 993,213 62,161 49,340 melium group

This is how I would like transparency in viewing the performance of a company.

With INSAS, I cannot find the transparency of the proper breakdown of all it's business units without inari share sales and dividends muddying everything up.

Simplified, what I meant to convey is I cannot have a feel of INSAS profit/losses of it's many startups and business units.

I did not say INSAS BOD is crooks. I just can't see the how much money the other business units are sucking up or generating back towards parent, and I don't like that particular reporting method.

That is all.

Thank you

Posted by teoct > 2020-04-28 15:53 | Report Abuse

Philip, do invest in Feihe if your research/analysis dictate it to be.

I knew Ausnutria first before Feihe as it was only listed recently. But man, I only have so much fund.

In Hong Kong Exchange, companies are allowed to provide profit alert (either up or down). Yesterday, Ausnutria issued a (positive) profit alert that caused the share price to advance +15%.

Nonetheless thanks for sharing on Feihe.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-28 16:22 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Thank you for your explanation on what you mean on INSAS. I happen to know the BOD personally hence trying to defend their integrity as they are loaded down by legacy issues/business they try to solve/rationalization and expand/acquire 5G related businesses and putting their cash hoard to good use.

I already get over with INSAS and will only top up when I can get a really good discount.

I’m now waiting to collect for long term investment some dividend stock at discount day sales (Genting, Btoto, Magnum, Orient, Pchem and etc)

Meanwhile I will try my luck trading some penny stocks.

Thank you

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-28 18:13 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Karim already run out of gas and your Kpower and SCIB will drop to penny stock again.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-28 20:25 | Report Abuse

Kpower and SCIB is Serba with a beta of 3X...............


Serba up, they go up

Serba down, they go down.......

Posted by David > 2020-04-29 12:13 | Report Abuse

Dear teoct,

Had a look on Ausnutria as well after you recommended it. But I personally didnt invest in it for the few reasons below :
- They only command a 5% market share for infant milk formula in China. Competitors eg Nestle, Feihe, Danone, Abbott, Junjebao collectively have 50% market share. I think competition would be stiff.
- The infant formula industry in China looks like reached a mature growth stage, dont think there would be exponential growth in this area.
- China has been having a slowdown in birth rates despite the relaxation in the one child policy. The birth rates have declined since 2017, and fertility rates in women have dropped. Many women now marrying later/ not marrying at all, so less babies are born.
- The rates of exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months in China is still much lower compared to other countries dt heavy marketing of infant formula. China are taking steps to encourage exclusive breastfeeding for their infants eg increasing babycare rooms in public spaces, breastfeeding flash mobs, extended maternity leave in some provinces. They might tighten the rules on infant milk formula advertisements. Demand for infant formula will reduce if there is a shift towards exclusive breastfeeding for the first 6 months of life.

Posted by David > 2020-04-29 12:16 | Report Abuse

Having said that, I believe the growth would come from their goat milk formula segment
- Goat milk formula gaining popularity because of benefits eg easier to digest, less likely to cause lactose intolerance, and a whey:casein ratio that is closer to human breastmilk compared to cow milk formula.
- Goat milk formula consumption could increase in EU because many of their population there are lactose intolerant.
- They have the highest whey:casein ratio in their formula compared to competitors in Europe. Whey:casein ratio in human breastmilk is 7:3. (Kabitra 5:5, Holle 2:8, Nanny care 2:8)
- Kabitra also has DHA which the other 2 formulas lack
- But many parents (including myself) have traditionally fed our kids with cow milk formula. It might be hard changing these habits.

Posted by David > 2020-04-29 12:21 | Report Abuse

I personally bought Vitasoy in the past few weeks. Dali foods seems better from a quantitative standpoint, i'm not sure why they command much lower PE value compared to peers. Would be grateful if anyone here could give their input. Tq

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-29 12:24 | Report Abuse

goat milk.....it seems everybody promotes goat milk.

Posted by teoct > 2020-04-29 13:07 | Report Abuse

David, please let me clarify - I did not recommend, I just share the name with Philip since he inquired.

Nevertheless, many thanks for reading and especially for sharing your thoughts on the cow and goat milks.

Yes, the number of babies is reducing for the last 3 years to just over 15 millions. And yes competition is stiff. It is a threat indeed and thank you for the head-up, will need to monitor closely.

Once again, thanks for reading and commenting.

Posted by David > 2020-04-29 13:17 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing. i've not been on i3 for some time. but found many good articles here which I've missed.