Posted by Sslee > 2022-04-09 15:11 | Report Abuse

Globally, palm oil supplies 40% of the world's vegetable oil demand on just under 6% of the land used to produce all vegetable oils.

For many years Malaysia and Indonesia have done the world good by production efficiency to keep the CPO price low to feed the poor. Unfortunately the Western World because self interest either subsidise their oil seeds farmer or use slander such as health issues, ESG, orang utan and etc to suppress the price of palm oil which trade at discount to Soya bean oil.

To counter the Western World bad propaganda, palm oil producers, supply chain players and consumers established RSPO standard: no peat, no deforestation and no social exploitation which result in Indonesia and Malaysia no increase in planting area and cause palm oil production stagnation for the past 3 years.

Since production is tight and make worse by bad weather that effect seasonal oil seeds crop in south hemispere and sudden war in Ukraine that prevent farmer from planting sunflower that effect sunflower oil production. What will be the price trend moving forward will depend on America, Canada and EU north hemisphere planting season of oil seeds planted in May and early June and harvested in late September and October.

To me palm oil price was oppressed and kept low by Western propaganda and unfair trade for far too long. The fair price of palm oil should be RM 4000/MT which will still enable plantations and small holders to make a decent profit.

Seasonal crops need to apply fertilizer in one go and with suden increase of fertilizer cost most small farmers might not apply the usual amout of fertilizer hence do not expect good harvest.

Remember any price movement is depandent on supply and demand.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 15:35 | Report Abuse

They conveniently did not mention constant environment pollution caused by open burning of the palm oil estates. As Malaysian, I have witnessed prolonged pollution annually except for the past two years. Yes, Malaysia and Indonesia have done the world great benefit by polluting the environment.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-09 15:48 | Report Abuse

First thing comes to mind after reading this blog is: The motive of this writer attacking palm oil is questionable.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 15:52 | Report Abuse

LOL. Attack for what?
Use common sense to interpret, not emotion.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-09 16:22 | Report Abuse

Pollution or not is a different issue. It doesn't justify a price crash. That is the common sense for this blog write up all about?

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 16:25 | Report Abuse

Is that what you can deduce? Good luck!

Posted by s3phiroth > 2022-04-09 16:29 | Report Abuse

despite cpo at historical high level, it is still the cheapest edible oil.

Posted by s3phiroth > 2022-04-09 16:33 | Report Abuse

i agree that it will eventually crash but then we all heard it since it reached rm4000.

Keep on guessing because u will eventually right one time some time in the future.

Posted by s3phiroth > 2022-04-09 16:56 | Report Abuse

palm oil is a cyclical industry so i agree that the price will eventually crash back to rm2000-3000, but then when? We all heard the crying wolf that the price will crash when it reached rm4000 last year, yet the price still going up with no end in sight.

With current global food inflation and FED's interest rate hiking is still far behind the curve. I dont think the price will fall back below rm5000 this year.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2022-04-09 17:34 | Report Abuse

This writer really talk CLSS. Please read the report just published on world oil seed on 8th, April, then only write. The numbers are all there.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-04-09 17:53 | Report Abuse

Many rainforests in Central and South America have been burnt down to make way for cattle farming, which supplies beef to the rest of the world. It is estimated that for each pound of beef produced, 200 square feet of rainforest are destroyed. The cleared land cannot be used for long without the forests' nourishment.

Cattle ranching as the main farming system in the Amazon basin. Since the beginning of the colonization in the 1960s, around 15% of the Amazon forest has been removed through agricultural practices.

Unfortunately, this has disastrous effects on the rainforest. Cattle ranching depletes the land of nutrients because cattle often eat to the very dirt, destroying all biomass on a piece of land and making it very hard for the habitat to restore itself.


Climate change is here to stay if we keep burning fosil fuel and keep burning down our forest for food production or by nature due to prelong drought and hot summer that burnt thro' many forest FIRE or bushfires each year in US, EU, Australia and etc

Human beings need to learn how to live harmony with nature and each other.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-04-09 18:20 | Report Abuse

sslee

have you actually seen a cow before?
cows eat very little grass and never do they eat until dirt.
areas with cows are like a forest of grass.
cows are way too intelligent, more intelligent for dogs and can learn within a day or so.
cows have a very complex social family interactions.

if commercial farmers allow cows to eat grass they will go bankrupt.
Commercially bred cows are ONLY fed with high nutrition oats, wheat or corn depending on prevailing prices.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-04-09 18:35 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/9o2M_KL8X6g

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-04-09 18:38 | Report Abuse

sslee
I think you see too many movies and TV series like Have Gun will Travel, High Chapparal, Bonanza and Shoot out at OK Corral etc etc

you must have a crush on Lisa Lu
During Lu's teen years, she was active in Chinese opera, or Kunqu, before emigrating to the United States, where, beginning in the 1950s, she enjoyed a long career in television.

During the 1958–59 television season, she had a recurring role as Miss Mandarin on the cult western show Yancy Derringer, set in New Orleans in 1868. In 1961 she had a recurring role as "Hey Girl" on the television series Have Gun – Will Travel. She made numerous other appearances on television, with guest starring roles on Bonanza, The Big Valley, The Richard Boone Show, The Virginian, Hawaiian Eye, The Man from U.N.C.L.E., The Rebel, Cheyenne, Bat Masterson, Kentucky Jones, and other shows.

You missed out on Dallas where its all cows and green green grass of home.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-04-09 18:42 | Report Abuse

on black and white TV it looks like dirt, example Have Gun Will Travel and Bonanza

on Dallas you can see its green grass on color TV.
wonders of technology

Posted by Sslee > 2022-04-09 18:45 | Report Abuse

I3lurker,
Cattle ranching in tropical countries is totally different from what you saw in commercial bred cow in countries with four seasons.

Posted by Poh Chye > 2022-04-09 19:12 | Report Abuse

Anyone who feels the CPO price will drop just go and short the futures.....Do note that plantation counters still make decent profits even if the CPO price drops to between 3500-4000. The PE will still be acceptable and the share price won't drop by much.

Posted by kmohan62 > 2022-04-09 20:31 | Report Abuse

Very shallow analysis by the writer who seems to have an agenda of his own.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 20:36 | Report Abuse

Here comes a deep knowledge guru of analysis.
Agenda?? LOL, my toes are laughing at you.
Why are you guys breaking a sweat if my analysis is shallow?
Meanwhile keep whining about this bubble bursting post.
Time will reveal the end result.

Posted by bpsiah > 2022-04-09 20:36 | Report Abuse

If you have made money in the CPO futures outright trades congrats. Prices had shot up a lot. To avoid future big losses due to the abrupt changes in outright prices, may be better if one switches to spread trading. Not sure this will help??

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 20:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-09 21:02 | Report Abuse

The following is the first and last paragraph of his blog:
Greedy pigs chased palm oil up to the sky. From a low of RM 1750, selfish dikheads chased it upto nearly RM 8500++.

Price would crumble below RM4000 soon. I won't be surprised if it hits RM1000.
You have been warned!
--------------------------------------
This is indeed shallow and not even qualified as an analysis.
I am not here to defend palm oil but notice that this chap has no positive comments in almost all of the counters/forums in i3.

Posted by QMSQAQC > 2022-04-09 21:05 | Report Abuse

Palm oil prices will maintain above Rm5000 even after the labour issue solve....Demand will still remain high for another 3 years due to weather uncertainties that cause havoc to competiting crops in north and south America.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 21:05 | Report Abuse

Well, who cares what you think about an opinion post.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 21:08 | Report Abuse

The chart speaks a thousand words if you are still in a fantasy land.

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-04-09 21:09 | Report Abuse

SIMPLE! supply n demand factor determined d ASP! now is shortage of cooking oil to meet d market demand!

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 21:11 | Report Abuse

There is no shortage. It is suppression of supply. KOMPLOT SOROK!!

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-09 21:11 | Report Abuse

Writing (copy & paste?) so long from Johor Bahru to Bukit Kayu Hitam, why not check what is the soybean price first?

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 21:13 | Report Abuse

If you have trouble reading you can use Microsoft Edge's "Read aloud" feature.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-09 21:16 | Report Abuse

Anyone has a chart to show FCPO dropped to RM1,000 or below in the last 20 years?

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-04-09 21:18 | Report Abuse

as reported, India has booked their crude oil for d whole year of 2022! they will do d same for CPO! KIASU/KIASI attitude!

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-09 21:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-09 21:39 | Report Abuse

Missed out on palm oil futures and stocks rally, bitter le tu...

Posted by markgold > 2022-04-09 22:24 | Report Abuse

Luckily Dickyme talk empty in this forum only, if he short CPO future beginning of last year till now he will bankrupt already.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-09 22:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by markgold > 2022-04-09 22:52 | Report Abuse

CPO future is transact by real money in real business world. the price reflect the actual supply and demand and NOT imagination of IB analyst or daydreamer.

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-09 22:54 | Report Abuse

U tak suka u jangan beli. Simple

Posted by Lee Yew > 2022-04-09 23:00 | Report Abuse

We respect your opinion that CPO will crash. It will not crash this year. It will stay above RM3000. Anything above 3000 is a bonus to the planters. Oil seeds supply will not be back to normal, Ukraine will take at least 6 months to get its first drop of canola or sun flower oil to the market. I will not dispose any plantation stock this year.

Posted by Freemind > 2022-04-10 06:33 | Report Abuse

Apa boleh buat? Anal Liz dah serong. Stay focus don't get distracted. Itu aje.

Posted by enning22 > 2022-04-10 09:31 | Report Abuse

the writer must have missed the boat on the early phase , so he shouted wolf ,wolf. Hoping a bear may come along, so can collect something cheap, cheap.

Posted by markgold > 2022-04-10 09:46 | Report Abuse

Dickyme, you calculation is wrong. If India increase 800,000 ton rapeseed oil as you said but Ukraine war has caused sunflower output less 30% to 40% about 12 million ton!! I think the estimate is still too optimistic.

Posted by DannyArcher > 2022-04-10 09:50 | Report Abuse

RM1000? If there is an oversupply of cooking oil, then maybe. But you have to understand, palm oil is not the same as other vegetable oil, palm oil is the most stable form of editable oil, which is why it is found in soap, biscuit, chocolate and etc. Anything that requires a long shelf life will need to use palm oil as other editable oil will degrade faster.

Next question is, what is the alternative? none, not even close. Palm oil is a very stable oil in term of the oil structure.

Next question is, can we scale up palm oil? no, unlike seasonal crops, you cannot grow palm oil today and expect to harvest it next year or few months later.

Is there an over supply of palm oil? no.

You are comparing this with glove, probably you got burn in glove and thinks all chart will move the same? you can ramp up glove production but you can not ramp up palm oil. Takes 3 to 5 years for palm oil to mature.

Posted by DannyArcher > 2022-04-10 09:51 | Report Abuse

Palm oil isn't as bad as you think
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTSLzEJnYIw

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-04-10 10:02 | Report Abuse

In a way I totally agree, one should always buy when prices are fair and leave when prices are at peak. Those who keep trying to buy when prices are at peak are bound for pain. For me, I am running a small 100 acre palm oil farm myself with a few other groups of friends in sabah (total around 1.2k acreage in total in LD and tawau). The prices that are coming around now is very unsustainable, we have huge shortage of workersas every hand is being sought after. Some drivers and general workers from KK city area used to earn around 2k a month are coming down here as we are offering them 2.5k per month salary and included food, housing and commission based on collection. Crazy times.

As for investment: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group2
1. I bought SOP @ 3.65 in OCt 6 2021, take dividend 4 cents and sell 16 FEB 2022 @ 4.68 -
Search:
Date
Type Shares Unit Price Net Amt. Balance Shares Realized Gain Average Cost Per Share Balance Cost Per Share
06-Oct-2021 View note Buy +100,000 3.65 +366,276.75 100,000 - 366,276.75 3.662 366,276.75 3.662
07-Oct-2021 Buy +100,000 3.74 +375,303.30 200,000 - 741,580.05 3.707 741,580.05 3.707
15-Dec-2021 Dividend 200,000 0.04 -8,000.00 200,000 - 741,580.05 3.707 733,580.05 3.667
16-Feb-2022 Sell -200,000 4.68 -932,379.20 0 +190,799.15 0.00 0.000 -198,799.15

2. I also bought INNO @1.275 average, collect dividend of 0.06 and sold on 3rd Feb 2022 at 1.39
22-Oct-2021 Buy +100,000 1.29 +129,509.55 100,000 - 129,509.55 1.295 129,509.55 1.295
29-Nov-2021 Buy +100,000 1.25 +125,493.75 200,000 - 255,003.30 1.275 255,003.30 1.275
14-Dec-2021 Dividend 200,000 0.06 -12,000.00 200,000 - 255,003.30 1.275 243,003.30 1.215
03-Feb-2022 Sell -200,000 1.39 -276,804.60 0 +21,801.30 0.00 0.000 -33,801.30

The obvious remark as SSLEE would say is why dont hold on for a few more months and sell for even higher prices? My counter to that as usual... you are in the palm oil industry. Why didn't you sell everything in INSAS and buy palm oil right as the CPO prices go vertical? If me as a small time planter can drive down miri and see the collection centers along main road increasing FFB collection prices on a daily basis, why can't we use scuttlebutt to define when the prices are going up as a signal of when we should be buying?

And as such, everyone in the industry knows that there is no way for prices to hold at 8k, 9k or even 10k per tonne? so how much speculation is being built in to the pricing of palm oil counters today? Just as I left topglove early after making double profit, I think palm oil industry is going to receive a sharp downturn again sooner or later. I am receiving very good money from my FFB sales these past few months, but i doubt it can hold.

As an investor, we invest for the future, and not based on past results.

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-04-10 10:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by emsvsi > 2022-04-10 10:21 | Report Abuse

REMEMBER WHAT WAS LEARNED FROM GLOVES
WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN
AND WHAT IS ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM (GENTING 3182) THE ONLY WAY IS UP

Posted by Kukubai > 2022-04-10 10:54 | Report Abuse

DickyMe always like people's dick to dig his mouth.

Posted by LossAversion > 2022-04-10 11:22 | Report Abuse

It is so much reading comments from people who have no real/practical experience with palm oil/oil palm. Fun just to hear how empty some vessels are.

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2022-04-10 11:41 | Report Abuse

LoL.... RM below 1,000/-. Got any.... collect a million tonnes. store in Oil tanker. hold for 2 years make 4 times profit .

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-04-10 11:52 | Report Abuse

FCPO dealed was done at RM5,592/ton for Sept.'22, how can below 1,000/- or say lowest at 4,000/- still gud profit for OP plantation companies!