I hope moneykj is right....this afternoon was salah liao
moneykj Since some of you relentless trying and mocking, taukeh give you a glimpse of happy moment in the morning. The afternoon session or Monday morning will be real Orion investors session. Then see who laugh who... 29/03/2019 11:58 AM
Aiyo, so easy to know when can shoot up me..If so good yesterday I already buy Gets. Fungsui master ask you to give him 10 years 8 years. I just want another 2 weeks. Monday I'm going to hide at Redtone.
Super Keng, you are talking the residence here Moneykj ka> First thought he was keng , change here change there some excuses and a lot after hahahahaha
Just back from short trip to Ipoh. Saw 3 musketeers put some comments pointed to me. Say no confident la, many excuses la, want to challenge me la. Winnning in spat with me can't even earn you a cup of kopi. Anyway thanks for your attention. I will be very busy watching my Redtone and monitor 1 kopi counter. Will get back to you soon.
Had a discussion with a forumer on this company. Just sharing for the benefit of others.
Hi moneykj,
As mentioned in my comments on the company back in February, I believe Orion is still a very speculative play stock given that the company’s valuation is a bit high when compared to its bottom line. The RM3.5mil recorded in 1H19 was mainly due to a RM1.4mil reversal of impairment allowance and a RM0.7mil writeback of allowance relating to liquidated ascertained damanges. Excluding these 2 non-recurring items, Orion 1H19 profit would have only been around RM1.5mil. Assuming similar results for the 2H19, the company is currently trading at a very high PE of 42.3x.
However, the company has a potentially lucrative arrangement with Sukaniaga Sdn Bhd (of which Orion owns 10% interest).
On October 2018, Sukaniaga has a service level agreement to develop the E Angkasa Az Zahara loan application system for MyAngkasa Holdings, a wholly own subsidiary of Angkatan Koperasi Kebangsaan Malaysia (not sure if it was based on open tender of direct award). Sukaniaga will earns a fee for its service based on the volume of loans and loans amount that it processed and approve under the system. The system will be developed (and actually operate) by Ganda Integrasi (which is a wholly own subsidiary of Orion). Ganda will earn 85% of what Sukaniaga received as fees for the system.
Currently Orion is proposing to acquire another 10% interest of Sukaniaga Sdn Bhd for RM10mil (valuing the company at RM100mil) from THO Travel Sdn Bhd. Upon completion the company will hold 20% interest in Sukaniaga. Effectively upon completion of the additional 10% interest of Sukaniaga, Ganda will have a total of 85% + (20% x 15%) = 88% rights to the fees paid for the loan system.
If you ask me, the deal with Angkasa is a bit dodgy given that Sukaniaga is actually receiving 15% of the service fees for just winning the contract. Effectively, it would have been a lot cheaper for Angakasa to directly award the contract to Orion. Sukaniaga has a share capital of only RM100k. Shareholders of Sukaniaga consist of mainly Ahmad Khir Bin Dato Haji Khairuddin (22.5%), Titian Kotamas (57.5%), Ganda Integrasi (10%) and THO Travel (10%). From here you can see that the shareholders of THO Travel (Sheikh Ahmad Nafiq Bin Sheikh A Rahman and Nor Fariza) will already make a very high profit of almost RM10mil for their initial investment of only RM10k in Sukaniaga.
Orion has proposed for a private placement exercise to raised approximately RM27mil of which the usages of the proceeds are: 1) Acquisition of 10% of Sukaniaga from THO Travel. RM10mil 2) Development of theMyAzZahra system: RM16mil 3) Expense for Private placement. RM950k.
Please take note, in their earlier announcement back in January the estimated proceeds to be raised was only around RM17mil. And out of this, only RM3.2mil was for the development of the system. Refer to page 3 of January announcement (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6027073). Now the cost of development has suddenly gone up to RM17.8mil (of which RM16mil is from the private placement). Not sure how the cost can suddenly go up by 6 times in just a span of 2 months. Investors should question the directors on this during the EGM on 15th Apr. Anyway, given the actual cost of development is considerably low (if you take out Sukaniaga out of the equation, that’s already a 15% savings), I just feel that there might be a potential review of the contract awarded by Angkasa to Sukaniaga by the government (as what had happened with Prestariang with their Skin contract). Investors need to take note.
For MBMR, the reason to invest into the company is mainly on its very undemanding valuation and very strong fundemantals (P&L, Balance sheet and Cash Flow). At the current share price the company is only being valued at a PE of 6.5x (based on FY18 RM165mil profit to shareholders) and a PB of only 0.7x.
That being said, I am still projecting a profit growth in FY19 vs the RM165mil achieve in FY18. The catalysts for the growths are: 1) Still high demand for the new Myvi
2) Sales of SUV Aruz. As of February, the sales is already at 3,400 units with bookings of more than 14,000 unit. The best part is that 85% of the sales and bookings are for the higher end version which commands better profit margin for Perodua.
3) Future uplift in sales from the newly revamp Alza sometime in 2H19.
4) Sales to UMW Toyota Motor. Please take note that the Toyota Rush is actually being manufacture by Perodua. The engine of the new Vios is also currently being manufacture by Perodua as well.
5) Improvement in sales of automotive component divisions. As mentioned MBMR is the biggest manufacturer of locally assemble automotive component in Malaysia. Given the new SST structure, a lot of brands have decided to start sourcing their automotive parts components locally in order to reduce the cost from higher SST and import duty.
6) The potential disposal of OMI Alloy Sdn Bhd (the alloy wheel business) which will immediately increase the company’s profit, strengthen its balance sheet and free up MBMR’s cash flow. In FY17 OMIA recorded a core net loss of around RM30mil. I would assume the losses in FY18 was still in the RM20mil level. As an example, MBMR core profit to shareholder would have been around RM180mil in FY18 if we were to exclude OMIA result.
I think MBMR would be able to achieve the RM200mil profit to shareholder target in FY19. Even if profit only reaches RM185 mil in FY19, at the current share price, the company would still be valued at a mere 6x PE, the lowest in the industry even though it has a direct exposure to Perodua. Most of the time, market leaders normally command a premium vs the industry average. In MBMR case, they are actually trading at a discount of 60% (based on industry average of 15x PE) which is weird.
Regards and good luck on your investment in Orion. Will take a look on Redtone later.
"Now the cost of development has suddenly gone up to RM17.8mil (of which RM16mil is from the private placement). Not sure how the cost can suddenly go up by 6 times in just a span of 2 months. Investors should question the directors on this during the EGM on 15th Apr. Anyway, given the actual cost of development is considerably low (if you take out Sukaniaga out of the equation, that’s already a 15% savings),"
They would probably tell the investors that the (projected) scope of work had increased significantly after consultation with the client on the end user needs. Fairly predictable script.
Rather, it is important that the investors should question what happened to the profit guarantee of 15m from the ASAP deal? That profit, standalone, could have been reinvested into the system development, if it had been realised and monetised to-date. If the stewards of the company cannot deliver this profit guarantee, their said value of Sukaniaga and the myAngkasa system...can believe? Could/Should investors believe them another round, whereas the last round was a 73m cash for a paper worth about 5m ASAP back then?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
moneykj
6,143 posts
Posted by moneykj > 2019-03-29 16:03 | Report Abuse
Unicorn, many stocks in my portfolio. Top three are Orion and son, Johotin and Redtone.