Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-24 17:20 | Report Abuse

so who said earlier EPS 0.19?????
WHERE tht JOKER now!

Posted by Ricky123 > 2017-08-24 17:21 | Report Abuse

As I said the result out today chun chun

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 17:22 | Report Abuse

Tq Ricky

Posted by adamant > 2017-08-24 17:23 | Report Abuse

future crack spread i dunno how to count. Current crack spread more than usd20 i am pretty sure. Anything above 15 is super good profit di.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-08-24 17:24 | Report Abuse

Re-post my previous comment, simple calculation also chun chun leh. Tomorrow open at 10.00. Yes.

________________________________________________________________

Why today heng yuan and petron dropped a lot ? The result announcement also delayed.

Just estimate simple calculation of this qtr result
4.1 billion x 1/3 (60 days shut down and initial set up) = 1.35 billion +- excluding factor of purchase refined oil from others.

Petronm = 2.6 b - 1.35 b = 1.25 b x 0.086 = 107.5 m x 0.85 = 91.38 m

EPS = 34 cents for this qtr ....

Using 34 x 4 x PE 8 = 10.9 or using PE 9 = 12.25.

Hope Petron can climb back as brought the boat ticket liao.

If looked at Petronm 2015 shut down net income is down about 65 to 70 percent. So estimate 2/3 income affected.

Just nonsense sharing since lot of expert here, just joined the boat recently. Hope i not commit suicide.

Posted by fattmoney > 2017-08-24 17:26 | Report Abuse

I noticed that there is a one-off gain of RM39.9 million under gain on disposal of PPE in the QR announcement (Note 17). This seems to be related to one-off divestment of service stations (Note 12). If you take this amount out, the EPS seems to be only about 19 sens. Does not seem too good??

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-24 17:26 | Report Abuse

Ricky, hengyuan bila

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 17:27 | Report Abuse

Its ok, as long as money made. Lets see 3q lor.................

Posted by windcloud > 2017-08-24 17:27 | Report Abuse

Noted the point, need to study first. Thks.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 17:29 | Report Abuse

But again Petronm said result good due to more sales and crack spread good!
Hinting something good for Q3

Posted by happy888 > 2017-08-24 17:29 | Report Abuse

Whatevwr the result... it is stil market decision whether it goes up or down. Anything can happen in bursa.

Posted by ChartMaster > 2017-08-24 17:31 | Report Abuse

it is good result ,

Posted by BullRunComing > 2017-08-24 17:31 | Report Abuse

Sell on news?

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 17:32 | Report Abuse

Sohai article by FutureEyes

Posted by charles_cty > 2017-08-24 17:32 | Report Abuse

technical figure everything look nice.......low PE, good margin, high ROE, high EPS.......how to find...if not up then sure someone fooling around.....

Posted by YES666 > 2017-08-24 17:32 | Report Abuse

Net cash company

Posted by njue76 > 2017-08-24 17:33 | Report Abuse

Based on these above inputs the EPS derived for PETRONM in Q2 seems to be at the level 21 cents.



(Unlike my article on HRC earlier, the uncertainty on the EPS estimation of PetronM is higher simply because even small variation on the net income of Bataan refinery can have significant effects on PetronM numbers. Readers are advised to create their own excel sheet similar to the table above, and feel free to use any figures they think reasonable on the variables as per their own understanding and comfort. The errors could only be on the variables nothing else. This is only to give a feel on the expected earnings of PetronM. I had tried my level best to minimize variables 1 and maximize variable 2 in order to derive the maximum earnings for PetronM above. i3 member inputs are welcomed to further enhance the prediction)

hengyuan :19 cents ..petronm 21 cents..

futureeyes ..you are liar,,,

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 17:43 | Report Abuse

paperplane wow! bank borrowing almost parred down all, net cash.

And CASH YIELDING IMPROVE! just like ANNJOO
24/08/2017 17:11

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-24 17:50 | Report Abuse

YES! PAID 200mil of BORROWING! where to find such CASHCOW ???tell me lah

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 17:51 | Report Abuse

Yes, correct correct, where to find ? Go find one la if you can ! Hahahahahaha

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 17:53 | Report Abuse

Will continue adding lor

Posted by windcloud > 2017-08-24 17:55 | Report Abuse

Just roughly look at their report, did not go into detail.

- This qtr result margin is reduced, think is mainly due to inventory loss, not sure how much, think about 30 million or even more.
- Overall, all is being improved.

So, if next qtr is inventory gain, sure the results will be burst.

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-24 17:57 | Report Abuse

core profits about $ 40 million or 15 sen after adjusting for sale of assets and forex....future eyes very very sharp.

share is fairly priced.

people who calculate based on various assumptions about crack spreads all got it wrong.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 17:57 | Report Abuse

Most of profit of Petron come from refinery, thus good for HRC who is pure refinery loh....!!

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-24 17:58 | Report Abuse

hi raider bro, you are back. hehe

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 17:59 | Report Abuse

Petron valuation only PE 6x comprises of both retail & mkt compare with over value Pet dag Pe 24x loh....!!

Petron easily warrant Pe at least 8x valuation loh...!!

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-24 18:02 | Report Abuse

they do not break down refining profits or retail profits.

Posted by George888 > 2017-08-24 18:02 | Report Abuse

Actually on a deeper look, Petron's Q2FY2017 operating profits is actually lower compared to Q2FY2016.

Net Profit is boosted by "rm39 million gains on disposal" on its service stations. Bought by the government.

Still, I like its great reduction in borrowings. A net cash company now.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-08-24 18:02 | Report Abuse

Just now wrongly seen is 1H2017 figures, roughly know the inventory loss how to derive and the produced barrel per day.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 18:02 | Report Abuse

Dun forget, more new petrol kioks and better crack spread on the way in 3q.......
Therefore, full year very likely to be record breaking EPS over 1.20

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 18:03 | Report Abuse

Who cares??? Tell me how much petron will earn next quarter based on todays crack spread. Invest on the future not the history like cp teh!

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-24 18:04 | Report Abuse

extraordinary profits will be normalized and not sustainable.


same for Hengyuan.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 18:04 | Report Abuse

Core profit or not. A learnt investor will know next quarter core earnings will explode!

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 18:05 | Report Abuse

Hahaha. brightsmart = FutureEyes? I can see your ip bro

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-24 18:05 | Report Abuse

yeah! small little margin improve alredi so great, wait to see the kaboom

Posted by LaLaLa > 2017-08-24 18:06 | Report Abuse

So it seems like the sharp drop in crude oil really hurts them.... though this can be regain in next quarter

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 18:06 | Report Abuse

brightsmart = Futureasx

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 18:07 | Report Abuse

Good result. I think tomorrow some people will sell on news. Expect petron to correct 10-15% like last last quarter.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 18:09 | Report Abuse

Buy more if lower, net cash company now.

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-24 18:16 | Report Abuse

This kind of quarter report is good?
Come on wake up... will sell down further... Call Warrant will be no value at all...

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-24 18:23 | Report Abuse

PetronM
24.8.2017

Qtr... Financial... Revenue... PBT... .........PAT ...............PBTM
No... Quarter .......(RM,000)..... (RM,000). (RM,000)..... Margin
2.... 30-Jun-17..... 2,415,510..... 117,571..... 90,999 .......4.9%
1.... 31-Mar-17..... 2,556,604..... 148,478..... 108,537.... 5.8%
4.... 31-Dec-16.... 2,289,544..... 152,768..... 112,618.... 6.7%
3.... 30-Sep-16..... 1,823,849..... 60,770..... 46,789..... 3.3%
2.... 30-Jun-16..... 1,830,902..... 86,719..... 61,531..... 4.7%
1.... 31-Mar-16..... 1,658,182..... 22,727..... 16,613..... 1.4%
4.... 31-Dec-15..... 1,883,392..... 10,050..... 17,127..... 0.5%
3.... 30-Sep-15..... 2,161,298..... 107,477.... 74,159..... 5.0%

Posted by InsiderR > 2017-08-24 18:24 | Report Abuse

Many shouting crack spread record high, eaten PetDag market share etc. Why profit from operation not explosive? PAT up due to sale of land~ Omg

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-24 18:26 | Report Abuse

Haha.... many ppl ken kon this round by those expertise....

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 18:27 | Report Abuse

After reading all comment really tempted to invest in this counter..yet looking at the quarterly announment and noted the following:


Non- operational effect:
Gain from disposal of fixed asset 39,902
Increase in realised forex gain 7,212 (11,996-4,784)
Reduce in unrealised forex loss 5,204 (7,155-1,951)

Total non-operational effect = 39902+7212+5204=52,318

Q2 2017 Profit vs Q2 2016 should compared apple to apple as follows:
90,999-52,318 vs 61, 531 = 38,681 vs 61,531
Actual profit after tax reduce by 37.1%

Q2 2017 Profit vs Q1 2017 profit:
90,999-39,902-2,121(realised and unrealised forex effect) vs 108,537
=48,976 vs 108,537 = drop 54.9%


Noted "review in performance" of quaterly annoucement the Management do not comment on why how profit increase. Perhaps above non-operation effect will answer this.

YES BUT WHAT ABOUT INVENTORY LOSSES ??
IT WAS ADJUSTED THRU THE GROSS PROFIT MARGIN ABOUT RM 35M TO RM 45M MAH....!!
THIS MEANS THE GROSS OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN VERY ROBUST LOH...!!

Posted by Explode > 2017-08-24 18:27 | Report Abuse

tomorrow become 8.00....good bye

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-24 18:34 | Report Abuse

Explode dunt say that.. many expert here will call u god later...

Posted by windcloud > 2017-08-24 18:35 | Report Abuse

As at 30/6/2017 crude oil price is about 46.51 (I used crude oil price instead of brent crude oil as illustration).

Today crude oil price is about 48.20, if can rise above 50 towards the end of Sep'17, the significant inventory losses will turn back to inventory gains.

This qtr magin did affected by inventory losses, then wait for next qtr for better gains in inventory holdings in oil price fluctuation.

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-24 18:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 18:45 | Report Abuse

3iii QUOTE:

Q2 2017 compared to Q2 2016

Sales revenue grew by 32% at RM 2.4 billion compared to same period in 2016.

Total sales volume reached 9.5 million barrels, a 9% improvement from 7.8 million of the previous period.

Its earnings grew a 49% increase from the RM 61 million in the same period in 2016.


REPLY::::
Non- operational effect:
Gain from disposal of fixed asset 39,902
Increase in realised forex gain 7,212 (11,996-4,784)
Reduce in unrealised forex loss 5,204 (7,155-1,951)

Total non-operational effect = 39902+7212+5204=52,318

Q2 2017 Profit vs Q2 2016 should compared apple to apple as follows:
90,999-52,318 vs 61, 531 = 38,681 vs 61,531
Actual profit after tax reduce by 37.1%

ADD BACK INVENTORY LOSSES RM 38681 PLUS RM 40000 = 78681 V 61531 =UP 17150 0R 28% APPLE TO APPLE COMPARISON LOH....!!

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-24 18:47 | Report Abuse

24.8.2017

Qtr... Financial... Revenue... PBT... .........PAT ...............PBTM
No... Quarter .......(RM,000)..... (RM,000). (RM,000)..... Margin
2.... 30-Jun-17..... 2,415,510..... 117,571..... 90,999 .......4.9%
1.... 31-Mar-17..... 2,556,604..... 148,478..... 108,537.... 5.8%


Not much difference between the revenues of these 2 quarters.

Yet, the PBT, PAT and PBT margin of Q2 are much lower.

Taking out the non recurring gains from divestment of service stations due to compulsory acquisition by the government, the Q1 recurring gains of PetronM is actually much lower.

The good revenues this year are driven by higher prices and growing sales volume.

Thus, we can infer that it has an inventory loss for Q2.