Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 18:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Aug 24, 2017 06:47 PM | Report Abuse

24.8.2017

Qtr... Financial... Revenue... PBT... .........PAT ...............PBTM
No... Quarter .......(RM,000)..... (RM,000). (RM,000)..... Margin
2.... 30-Jun-17..... 2,415,510..... 117,571..... 90,999 .......4.9%
1.... 31-Mar-17..... 2,556,604..... 148,478..... 108,537.... 5.8%


Not much difference between the revenues of these 2 quarters.

Yet, the PBT, PAT and PBT margin of Q2 are much lower.

Taking out the non recurring gains from divestment of service stations due to compulsory acquisition by the government, the Q1 recurring gains of PetronM is actually much lower.

The good revenues this year are driven by higher prices and growing sales volume.

Thus, we can infer that it has an inventory loss for Q2.

FALSE REPORTING BY 3iii HE DID NOT CATER FOR 1 TIME INVENTORY LOSSES OF RM 40M MAH...!!

IF U ADDBACK THIS EXCEPTIONAL ONE OFF ITEM PETRON RESULT COMMENDABLE LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 18:53 | Report Abuse

Posted by 1686 > Aug 24, 2017 06:52 PM | Report Abuse

3iii
Thus, we can infer that it has an inventory loss for Q2.

Reply::::
Hi, may I know how to derive at 40,000k inventory lossess ?

SPECIAL INFO FROM OO9 INVESTIGATOR ANALYST LOH...!!

Posted by StockLearner > 2017-08-24 19:02 | Report Abuse

Without one-time-off gain, result is poor. Market knows that. Tomorrow SELL day.

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-24 19:02 | Report Abuse

Wow, borrowings drop so much..........meaning very strong cashflow leh. Also telling company is ver ymuch healthy..............biz still remains profitable too. Look forward to year end record eps lor.

Big dividend on the way too !

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 19:03 | Report Abuse

Hahaha. Dont like you can sell, no need to bark like dog. Most traders here holding out for next quarter

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 19:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by 1686 > Aug 24, 2017 06:57 PM | Report Abuse

stockraider:


Hi, may I know how to derive at 40,000k inventory lossess ?

SPECIAL INFO FROM OO9 INVESTIGATOR ANALYST LOH...!!
24/08/2017 18:53


Reply:
OIC... special info....how to support the calculation ?

USE HEAD AND THINK LOH ??
SPECIAL INFO WHERE GOT SUPPORT CALCULATION LEH ??
IT IS SPECIAL INFO ?? VERY HARD TO GET MAH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 19:08 | Report Abuse

YES...GO AND EXPLAIN LOH....!!
THE STRONG MARGIN MANAGE TO ABSORP ALOT OF INVENTORY LOSSES LOH...!!
THATS WHY CASHFLOW VERY VERY GOOD MAH....!!

Posted by GICSpore > 2017-08-24 19:08 | Report Abuse

Time to collect more of this stock if selling comes, nothing seriously wrong about the biz. And cash flow generated continues to be super strong and healthy. Otherwise, how to pay down borrowings so fast ??

Value investors will know that.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-08-24 19:11 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow Petron definitely will correct. Dropping 10-15% is normal.

Posted by Ricky123 > 2017-08-24 19:14 | Report Abuse

Irregardless of disposal gain from assets sale its is still
Booked in and considered profit. petronm more liquid than HRC
Got income from refinery and kiosk. HRC would not ride
The same q1 result though... wait next week finale

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 19:15 | Report Abuse

NO WAY PETRON CAN COMEDOWN...IT COULD ONLY GO UP MAH...!!

PETRON PE 6X V PET DAG PE 24X LOH.....!!

PETRON VALUATION RERATING TOMORROW MAH....!!

Posted by Sonic128 > 2017-08-24 19:21 | Report Abuse

wow, result good.........

Posted by GICSpore > 2017-08-24 19:27 | Report Abuse

Selling can be easily absorbed given improved yoy eps. Only those short term players do not see the entire value. You could just count the full year's eps with simple and conservative estimation as follows :

2017 : 40.2 (Q1 ) + 33.7 (Q2) + 20 est (Q3) + 15 est (Q4) = 108.9 (Full Yr 2017 ) VS 87.98 (Full Yr 2016) ===> + 24% eps yoy

Posted by solarcell > 2017-08-24 19:31 | Report Abuse

52m other income is not one time gain, you will see last year and last quarter also have other income, last q is 15m, so actual profit from operating maybe 53m, it may not so wow, but until today the average oil price and crack margin will push the profit to next level

Posted by KL_82 > 2017-08-24 19:36 | Report Abuse

Let's sell it down to RM8 tomorrow!

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-24 19:41 | Report Abuse

Good, buy more to keep if cheap. Cos， no other stocks are like Petronm. You know I know. Hehehe

Posted by ChartMaster > 2017-08-24 19:42 | Report Abuse

it happened that same to AirAsia, last quarter result was contributed by non-operating, but the next day some silly ikan bilis sold their share, and the following day the share price was lifted sky high . the lesson taught me , "who cares? so long the EPS increase and the PE reduced".

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-24 19:43 | Report Abuse

Stockraider u loss until siao liao arh? Hahaha... how many M u put inside oh...

Mana itu Aseng.. ur wife mau kena hijack dy...
Hahaha..

Uncle Mau cash so rich then 2moro pls defend 0.24 ya.. i promise to sell u all ticket u want.. CD market so thin only.. once u q buy let me know.. i can give all u want to u.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 19:43 | Report Abuse

No lah...we care...but Petron refinery margin really good mah...!!

Posted by godofgamble > 2017-08-24 19:56 | Report Abuse

Buy now hold until year end, mayb get double

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-24 19:58 | Report Abuse

Integreedy, you want to be god again ah ? So good in prediction one ! Sour grape with no monies

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-24 20:17 | Report Abuse

Good stock u r welcome to publish ur own transaction statement here..

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-24 20:18 | Report Abuse

Else u r the ine sour grape.. hahaha

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-24 20:33 | Report Abuse

Low class sour grape with no monies. Anytime better than you god

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-08-24 20:34 | Report Abuse

Petronm part 7 (New valuation)


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/130782.jsp

Comment are welcomed.

Posted by happy888 > 2017-08-24 20:35 | Report Abuse

Wait for the selling tomorrow first. Will last for 1 week. Then only pick up. Same patterñ and MO every QR.

Posted by solarcell > 2017-08-24 20:50 | Report Abuse

1686, other income maybe from fores, but there is other expense, looking last q, performance, the gain of loss from forex is not significant. so for you better compare just result from operating activities. yes, no doubt it still lower

Posted by Kyou > 2017-08-24 20:54 | Report Abuse

Tmr will sell down..??@@

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 20:55 | Report Abuse

Posted by davidtslim > Aug 24, 2017 08:34 PM | Report Abuse

Petronm part 7 (New valuation)


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/130782.jsp

Comment are welcomed.

CORRECTLOH...RAIDER TP RM 14.00 PETRON CLOSE TO DAVID'S ESTIMATES MAH...!!

Posted by happy888 > 2017-08-24 21:10 | Report Abuse

Kyou... 90% sure sell down. Dun ask why. It is bursa nature. Earn sell down, lose money sell down. U want to pick up wait next week.

Posted by 林俊松 > 2017-08-24 21:10 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/08/24/petron-malaysia-q2-earnings-up-nearly-half-to-rm91m/

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 21:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Aug 24, 2017 09:15 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by 3iii > Aug 24, 2017 09:03 PM | Report Abuse

>>>So to me, 2Q17 wasn't great but a decent quarter, especially the company's operating cash flow remain strong and has turned net cash in this quarter (RM90m). This is a different animal as compared to Hengyuan, which has huge debt and has no stable and profitable retail biz. So pls don't make stupid comparison without differentiating the 2, just like I never expect Petronm to trade up to PetDag's 25x PE. <<<

Fair write up with your assumptions well argued.

RAIDER COMMENT;

NOT TRUELOH...!!
IN 2010, HRC TRADE AT RM 10.40 TO RM 11.00 WITH EPS OF RM 0.375 PE 30X EXCEEDING PET DAG CURRENT OVERVALUE PE 24X TODAY LOH...!!

WHY HRC, GOT SUCH SUCH A GOOD RATING AND HIGH VALUATIONLE LEH ??
IT IS DUE ANALYST VALUATION CONFIDENCE AFTER FEW YRS OF STEADY EARNINGS LOH....!!

THE SAME CAN HAPPEN TO HRC AND PETRON, WITH GOOD EARNINGS AND DUE FOR STRONG RERATING LOH....!!

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 21:18 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, this stock is still the best from Bursa, no where can be found la.

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-24 21:20 | Report Abuse

PetronM 24.8.2017

Balance Sheet
Q2 2017

CA 1190.4
NCA 1115.6
TA 2306

CL 858.6
NCL 143.4
TL 1001
Eq 1304
TL + Eq 2306


Cash 156.3
ST Loans 33.2
LT Loans 33.3
Total debt 66.5


Inv 541.1
AR 283.6
AP 740.5




Balance Sheet is strong.

It is now net cash positive.

It has paid down almost all of its debts and interest expense today is small.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 21:28 | Report Abuse

It is virtually cash positive for Petron from about Rm 1.0 billion borrowing when then Philipine took over just a few yrs back today almost debt free ....raider really impress of Petron loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-24 21:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-24 21:43 | Report Abuse

... I like another company in another sector a lot more. :-)

Easier to value. Growth is more certain. Less volatility in revenue and earnings.

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-24 21:45 | Report Abuse

all arguments are futile. The market will decide.

this forum many false prophets with their complex formulas and formulas that cannot be understood. ( regarding crack spreads etc)

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-08-24 21:46 | Report Abuse

The sell down will be small time. This is a fundamental institutional stock that will be priced according to basic valuations. This is not ABC stock that you whack upwards without considering intrinsic potential, and then just let it go to cash out. No doubt there will be the fear factor tomorrow, but it will be well absorbed. Its doubtful it will go below 9 tomorrow. Just imagine, if it does, then HRC will follow suit becos of the clustering effect. And when HRC issues commendable results, naysayers will predict another down day. And so the impact will also overwhelm Petron. So the scenario goes that 2 strong companies screwing each other's prices. What happened yesterday when HRC got whacked for about 32 sen down and like wise Petron was sniffed of 20sen. if worst case scenarios is expected then companies might as well report huge losses. Again HRC and Petron is not like those counters that we witness day in day out in the top 30's.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-24 21:48 | Report Abuse

All serious and value investors shld just refer to Davidlim's latest writeup for update. Buy more, hahahahahah if you are cash rich and I would switch all other portfolios to Petronm.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/130782.jsp

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-24 22:06 | Report Abuse

Yes, buy more if lower !

Posted by BeReal > 2017-08-24 22:33 | Report Abuse

no need to promote lah. Now that the wow factor is out. Petron sure fall first. Gonna wait for the CD and CC at 18 cents.

Posted by BeReal > 2017-08-24 22:34 | Report Abuse

Has been, is still and will be. The MO of the sharks are always the same. whoever reads well their movement will benefit maximumly.

Posted by ocpd > 2017-08-24 22:43 | Report Abuse

Pls go down 20% tomorrow ... so i can buy more!

Posted by happy888 > 2017-08-24 22:55 | Report Abuse

I still remember this exact moment 3 months ago. So many say will buy more if drop. That day open at 8.91. Reach 8.93 before dropping to rm8.1. Suddenly all the joy of good qr die down. Nobody say a word. It generally fall to rm7.4 before start picking back up to rm8.3.

If pattern is a past guide... tomorrow one hero will buy it up to rm9.35 then petron will fall all the way to 8.5. And continue all the way to rm7.8.

Gua tunggu cd at 18 to 20 cents.

Posted by happy888 > 2017-08-24 22:58 | Report Abuse

The more bloggers write about petron the more i scare. U know 3 months ago what did all the sifu write? Petron worth at least rm11. U know what? 3 months later it barely touch rm10. Now write valuation got rm12 to 14. U believe u sampat lah

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-08-24 22:59 | Report Abuse

Let me just provide some references: When POS, Kerjaya Prospek, Serbadinamik, UEMS, and most other institutional stocks reported good earnings, was there any massive drop? And what more like the ACE market KRONO there was hardly, maybe non significant decrease or any down days ever since reporting quarterly results and private placement. Look at sunway con and WCT tomorrow, which just reported earnings, see whether there will be any significant pullback of more than 5 %. Sometimes we are just too preoccupied with the forum and our notion that we just fail to see the bigger picture. What is so special about petronm that there should be a significant pullback?

Posted by happy888 > 2017-08-24 23:02 | Report Abuse

Promote here and there...silap2 its all the sifu who dump at u all. Then wait for the right moment to pick up back. Maybe 1 month later maybe 2 months later when they finish playing around lah.

If i am wrong.... i am really happy bcos i have petron also. If i am right cd will be the leverage here. Sorry to burst everyone bubble of joy. But be careful of all so call "sifu".

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-24 23:03 | Report Abuse

LIKE THAT ALSO SCARE....BETTER STAY & REMAIN IN THE HOSPITAL LOH...!!

PETRON 6 MTHS AGO SHARE PRICE WAS RM 6.25....!!

3 MONTHS AGO WAS RM 8.20 MAH.....!!

TODAY RM 9.29 LOH.....!!

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2017-08-24 23:04 | Report Abuse

Ya.....pls go drop 30%....pls, pls.