Posted by probability > 2022-05-28 14:15 | Report Abuse

Between Q3 21 to Q4 21' PetronM PAT margin barely rose from 1.5% to 2.04%

whilst, Hengyuan had expansion from -1.7% to 4.4%

PetronM could not benefit from crack spread expansion and does not intend to...as its more of a retail player

it must hedge in small batches as it receives from its parent company at such thin margin

Posted by probability > 2022-05-28 14:24 | Report Abuse

as a hydrotreater with 30% Fuel Oil output, the negative crack spread would have wiped out whatever positive spread from gasoline and diesel (another 30%)

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/Insight1/2018-02-03-story146257-DIFFERENCE_between_PETRONM_and_HENGYUAN?_gl=1*1ytqwcz*_ga*MTA3NDE2NTcwNi4xNjA4NTU5NDY5*_ga_MNBHX2J50S*MTY1MzcxMTI4NC4xODguMS4xNjUzNzE4OTE1LjA.

effectively you can assume its Malaysian refinery capacity of products with positive crack is only about 40%.

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-28 15:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks probability

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2022-05-28 15:38 | Report Abuse

buy what drop what
i am really sui

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-28 17:17 | Report Abuse

@probability, I don’t see any refinery margin swap (derivative) being reported (HRC did). Neither can we confirm if there is a refining contract performed at low margin .
Without the derivative losses amounting to $230 mil or $175 mil after the 24% corporate tax effect, PetronM could have made roughly $106+175 =$281 mil . That’s $1.04 per share per qtr and average crack spread in that qtr was about half of what is now .
Amid less volatile swing in crude price in Q2 and historic high crack spread I am quite sure Q2 will be explosive. I have equal exposure in both Petron and HRC.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-28 17:24 | Report Abuse

Let the naysayers continue with their negative attitude and ignore all facts and figures out there. They can’t dictate the market anyway, but the deep pockets manipulators can . The manipulators will eventually want to reap huge gain from share price rally .

Posted by probability > 2022-05-28 17:33 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, for PetronM there are two growth drivers to its PAT:

1) The expanding retail sales volume. Here, however my understanding is the margin is fixed. It does not gets affected by crack spread but agreed terms with government and their parent company petron on supply of refined products

2) Its malaysian refinery. As mentioned above, since fuel oil has negative crack spread exceeding - 12 $/brl, the effective capacity of its 88bpd plant is likely below 40%. This portion of its sales volume will benefit from crack spread expansion.

From the above, you can make your judgement on its PAT growth on its next qtr and allocate your weightage on stakes accordingly

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-05-28 19:36 | Report Abuse

it is interesting to read from those presenting with fact and data + healthy comments compare to makan ikan bilis + shark + hammer sini sana。。。

Posted by KingKoil > 2022-05-28 20:19 | Report Abuse

YoY bad result. Gap down.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-28 22:27 | Report Abuse

Johnzhang @Sslee, the derivative loss is certainly in commodity swap. I think Petronm hedged too aggressively the crude (raw material) they need for refining. Bear in mind that crude Brent price swung wildly in the qtr. It started (3rd Jan) at around USD78 and increased all the way to around USD124 (8th Mar) and plunged to USD96 (16th Mac) and it ended at USD103 on 31 Mac. When the Ukraine war broke out, oil traders in PetronM might have taken big position at high end of the price (eg USD124) thinking that Brent could scaled beyond USD124. Unfortunately, Brent came off drastically after peaking at USD124 around 8th march.

28/05/2022 1:35 PM

Thanks @Johnzhang for the explanation on the derivative loss.
I will prepare some questions for the coming AGM tomorrow.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-29 21:23 | Report Abuse

Will send below to Petronm IR.

Questions submit in advance for the upcoming Petronm 63th AGM on 16 June 2022.

Dear Petronm IR/Company secretary
Email: manoj.devadasan@petron.com.my

I would like to submit in advance my AGM questions as below.
Please kindly forward the questions to the management and The Board for them to prepare the answers.

Annual report Page 26 & 27:
Diversifying Supply
Our refinery processes various types of crude oil supplementing base Tapis crude and Terengganu condensate for an optimal production run. With the successful operation of our Diesel Hydrotreater (DHT) facility, we were able to further diversify our crude slate, which included other Malaysian crude grades like Kidurong, Kimanis and Kikeh, as well as other regional crudes. This allowed PDR to optimize production using a wider and more diversified type of crude oil feedstock without compromising the quality and the safety of our operations.

The DHT, which was commissioned in the second quarter of 2021, enabled us to diversify our crude slate and process higher sulphur but better value crude oil, improving our feedstock cost and product yield. It allowed us to produce ultra-low sulphur diesel products compliant with Euro 5 specifications, in line with the government’s mandate to replace Euro 2 diesel. The Euro 5 diesel produced from PDR were supplied to Peninsular Malaysia terminals meeting the government’s implementation date.

The MIF2, which comprised of a new Single Buoy Marine facility, two 250,000-barrel product tanks and pipelines,
was fully commissioned in the third quarter of 2021 with the aim to support volume growth through additional product storage capacity. The MIF2 facility provided the Company with the capability to receive and store larger parcel imports for optimised freight and demurrage costs.

The refinery underwent a 30-day planned shutdown for routine maintenance and catalyst regeneration and restarted operation as scheduled in October without any incident.

A. PD Refinery and Lumut PME
I) FY2021
Question 1: PD Refinery processing how many barrels of crude oil? What is the crude blend (in % Tapis crude, Terengganu condensate, Kidurong, Kimanis, Kikeh and other regional crudes)? And what is the total cost of the crude oil in RM?
Question 2: PD Refinery produces how many barrels total refining products? What are the products (in % liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), propylene, naphtha, gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and fuel oil components)? And what is the total value of the products in RM?

Question 3: Lumut PME plant processing how many tons of oil? What is the oil blend (in % CPO and other oil)? And what is the total cost of the oil in RM?
Question 4; Lumut PME plant produces how many tons of products? What are the products (in % PME, crude glycerin and refine glycerin)? And what is the total value of the products in RM?

II) Recent Q1 end 31 March 2022
Question 1: PD Refinery processing how many barrels of crude oil? What is the crude blend (in % Tapis crude, Terengganu condensate, Kidurong, Kimanis, Kikeh and other regional crudes)? And what is the total cost of the crude oil in RM?
Question 2: PD Refinery produces how many barrels total refining products? What are the products (in % liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), propylene, naphtha, gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and fuel oil components)? And what is the total value of the products in RM?

Question 3: Lumut PME plant processing how many tons of oil? What is the oil blend (in % CPO and other oil)? And what is the total cost of the oil in RM?
Question 4: Lumut PME plant produces how many tons of products? What are the products (in % PME, crude glycerin and refine glycerin)? And what is the total value of the products in RM?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-29 21:24 | Report Abuse

B. Retail
I) FY2021
Question 1: How many retail service stations (out of 740 Petro service stations) are owned by Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd (PMRMB)? And how many are owned by Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd (PFISB)?
Question 2: What were the Volume, Revenue and net profit generated by retail services stations owned by Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd (PMRMB)? And by Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd (PFISB)
Question 3: What was the fuel volume supplied by PD refinery and by Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd (PFISB) import to retail service stations owned by Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd (PMRMB)? And by Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd (PFISB)?
Question 4: Am I right to say RM 1,985,525,000 worth of petroleum products was sold by PMRMB to petrol stations owned by PFISB and at the same time RM 1,117,614,000 worth of petroleum products was purchased from PFISB to petrol stations owned by PMRMB? How this trade is settle and any plan in near future for PMRMB to acquire all the petrol stations and assets owned by PFISB and Petron oil (M) Sdn Bhd in Malaysia?

II) Recent quarter 1 end 31 March 2022
Question 1: What were the Volume, Revenue and net profit generated by retail services stations owned by Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd (PMRMB)? And by Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd (PFISB)
Question2: In what way the MIF2, which comprised of a new Single Buoy Marine facility, two 250,000-barrel product tanks and pipelines had benefited Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd (PMRMB)?


C. Commercial
I) FY2021
Question 1: What were the volume, Revenue and Net profit by the commercial sales division?
II) Recent quarter 1 end 31 March 2022
Question 1: What were the volume, Revenue and Net profit by the commercial sales division?

D. Financial result
Annual report 2021 page 142, note 22: Loss on derivatives RM 111,642,000
Question 1: What can be done better to avoid loss on derivatives of RM 111,642,000 incurred in FY2021 and any action plan taken to prevent future loss?

Quarter 4 end 31 Dec 2021 report page11, note 12: Derivative Financial Instruments as at 31 December 2021, the company has the following outstanding derivatives financial instruments:
Forward exchange contracts: RM 443,757,000
Commodity swaps: RM 220,278,000
Question 2: May I know how these outstanding derivatives become a loss of derivatives: RM 230,011,000 in financial end 31 March 2022?

Quarter 1 end 31 March 2022 report page 11, note12: Derivative Financial Instruments as at 31 March 2022, the company has the following outstanding derivatives financial instruments:
Forward exchange contracts: RM 623,276,000
Commodity swaps: RM 327,147,000
Page 6 cash flows: As at 31 march 2022 the unrealized loss/(gain) on derivatives : RM 52,062,000
Question 3: As of the latest month end closed 31 May 2022, what were the above outstanding derivatives that had turned into realized or unrealized loss/(gain)?

Refer link https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD
The crack spread had spiked up from USD14 at 1st April to USD 23 on 2rd May and sideline in the range of USD 28-31 on 12 May till today.
Question 4: If quarter 2 average crack spread can achieved USD 20- 26 per barrel what will be the estimate net profit range for quarter 2?

Your return email acknowledging received of my AGM questions will be appreciated

Thanks and Best Regards
Lee Soon Sheng

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 09:35 | Report Abuse

Huat ah

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 09:37 | Report Abuse

Limit up
Lai lai

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 09:49 | Report Abuse

Lai lai limit up
Heng ah huat ah ong ah

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 09:54 | Report Abuse

Limit up 3 times

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 09:59 | Report Abuse

Nice..i m the only one here again...good old days...

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-05-30 10:28 | Report Abuse

huat chai

Posted by param1 > 2022-05-30 10:47 | Report Abuse

ONWARDS!!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 12:54 | Report Abuse

Petronm=share real man

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-30 13:32 | Report Abuse

heng ong huat !

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 14:35 | Report Abuse

Limit up lai lai

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-05-30 14:56 | Report Abuse

tgh wait ah heng...

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-05-30 20:27 | Report Abuse

At least here safer than hengyuan

Posted by RWG > 2022-05-30 22:02 | Report Abuse

ff will buy in petronm

Posted by John88820202021 > 2022-05-30 22:06 | Report Abuse

Add more to petronm better performance than hy

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-31 08:55 | Report Abuse

Show us the money
Huat ah

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-31 09:31 | Report Abuse

:-0

Posted by param1 > 2022-05-31 10:18 | Report Abuse

I HAVE EQUAL EGG BASKET IN HENG AND PETRON BOTH ARE LINKED BY MARKET FORCES SO HAVE TO BE NICE TO BOTH HE HE HE

Posted by RWG > 2022-05-31 10:49 | Report Abuse

boring see klci market

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-31 11:33 | Report Abuse

Profit taking mah!

Definitely Petron is better than hengyuan as it pays 20 sen div loh!

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-05-31 11:38 | Report Abuse

aiseh, no reasons why Petron is pressed down as Hengyuan!

Hengyuan is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 26 times versus Petron’s 8.1 times

Q1 March '22 - Hengyuan eps is 15.82 c whereas Q1 March '22 - Petron eps is 39.40 c

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-31 11:45 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...!

Petron annualzed EPS Rm 1.56 mah!

Hengyuan annualized EPS Rm 0.64 loh!

Surely Petron should rate higher mah!

Posted by investor2021trading > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

aiseh, no reasons why Petron is pressed down as Hengyuan!

Hengyuan is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 26 times versus Petron’s 8.1 times

Q1 March '22 - Hengyuan eps is 15.82 c whereas Q1 March '22 - Petron eps is 39.40 c

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-31 12:15 | Report Abuse

Already proven Hengyuan is taken position in derivative & lose monies mah!

Thus this scenario will not happen mah!
No need to take unnecessary risk loh!

Petron is your answer mah!


Petron annualzed EPS Rm 1.56 mah!

Hengyuan annualized EPS Rm 0.64 loh!

Surely Petron should rate higher mah!

Also got div 20 sen propose for Petron mah!

Posted by skyjet > 2022-05-31 14:01 | Report Abuse

I switch all my petron to HengYuan as I know the core of crack spread up is more favourable to HengYuan

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-31 14:02 | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
Do you know Petronm report loss of derivatives: RM 230,011,000 in quarter 1 financial end 31 March 2022?

Without this loss what will be the Net profit after tax?

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-05-31 14:29 | Report Abuse

steady steady

Posted by klsejeff88 > 2022-05-31 19:33 | Report Abuse

No guarantee next quarter no derivatives loss or cannot be bigger than this quarter. Nobody knows lah. So many sifus talk 3 talk 4 at HY 300 million PAT, in the end 40+ nia.

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-31 21:19 | Report Abuse

U NUT!!!!
If there was guarantee u think petronm trading at rm6.5???
Stop talking kok lor..
Lol
U guys all want talk guarantee better go buy maybank but even maybank less profit worr..i guess nothing gpt guatanree..it got guarantee high profits petronm aldy rm50

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-05-31 22:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-06-01 10:02 | Report Abuse

You guys needs to see bigger picture - Complex refinery like HY can selectively control yield of gasoline and diesel

HY has the ability to produce Diesel at yields of 45%

i suggest you guys monitor DIESEL SPREAD too which shot up by 7 USD/brl today

DIESEL CRACK SPREAD:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AGZ1!

a slight lower oil price is good as it would not dampen demand while maintaining high crack

always remember we only need 13 USD/brl average crack spread

Posted by probability > 2022-06-01 10:03 | Report Abuse

and for PETRONM a simple refinery which produces MORE THAN 30% Fuel Oil yield:

FUEL OIL CRACK SPREAD:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SF31!/

I hope i3 members here truly develop some intelligence on the fundamentals and dynamics of these crack spread and its importance to bottom line of these refineries

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-01 11:03 | Report Abuse

Petron Refinery is as good as Hengyuan Refinery...if not better loh!

Petron has its advantage....bcos it is not dependant to external party to retail its products unlike Hengyuan which subject to the mercy of shell mah!

Petron is a right combinations of Pet Dag and Hengyuan to make up Petron loh@

Posted by probability > 2022-06-01 11:04 | Report Abuse

@stockraider, quite disappointing to see your worthless comments (likely confusing newbies) despite being an old experienced investor in HY in 2017.

As i had detailed many times you must see HY as a refinery processing 10.7 million barrels per quarter whereas PetronM refinery at less than 1/4 of HY capacity, i.e about 2.5 m barrels. Reason being PetronM is a simple refinery which produces more than 30% Fuel Oil with crack spread hitting negative - 15 USD/brl .

Without Hengyuan (the HEAD) share price rising, do not expect PetronM ( the TAIL) to perform, unless if PetronM had raised it retails sales volume significantly.

As a matured investor you should know this better

Posted by probability > 2022-06-01 11:12 | Report Abuse

TWO IMPORTANT information concerning PetronM for the chicken hearted who does not want to invest in HY but PetronM instead:

1) PetronM is a simple refinery that produces more than 30% Fuel Oil while HY (complex refinery) with about 2.6% Fuel Oil yield.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/Insight1/2018-02-03-story146257-DIFFERENCE_between_PETRONM_and_HENGYUAN?_gl=1*19l8mrr*_ga*MTA3NDE2NTcwNi4xNjA4NTU5NDY5*_ga_MNBHX2J50S*MTY1NDA0Nzg1NC4yMDYuMS4xNjU0MDUyNjgyLjA.


2) The Fuel Oil crack spread is NEGATIVE against feed crude Brent

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SF31!/

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-01 11:15 | Report Abuse

Rubbish lah!

Why u want to stucked with a konman like Hengyuan leh ??

Go for Petron lah! At least got good corp governance & it pays at least 20 sen div mah!

Btw...Petron also makes more money than hengyuan...what talking u leh ?
Posted by probability > 8 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@stockraider, quite disappointing to see your worthless comments (likely confusing newbies) despite being an old experienced investor in HY in 2017.

As i had detailed many times you must see HY as a refinery processing 10.7 million barrels per quarter whereas PetronM refinery at less than 1/4 of HY capacity, i.e about 2.5 m barrels. Reason being PetronM is a simple refinery which produces more than 30% Fuel Oil with crack spread hitting negative - 15 USD/brl .

Without Hengyuan (the HEAD) share price rising, do not expect PetronM ( the TAIL) to perform, unless if PetronM had raised it retails sales volume significantly.

As a matured investor you should know this better

Posted by probability > 2022-06-01 11:16 | Report Abuse

it appears as a conman - coz you dont understand its business model and financial tools

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-01 11:17 | Report Abuse

Btw Petron business have both head & tail unlike Hengyuan only head mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by probability > 2022-06-01 11:18 | Report Abuse

For PetronM next qtr results do not expect more than 30 cents EPS - if you are happy with it - go for it - thats all i can say

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-01 11:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

TWO IMPORTANT information concerning PetronM for the chicken hearted who does not want to invest in HY but PetronM instead:
Without Hengyuan (the HEAD) share price rising, do not expect PetronM ( the TAIL) to perform, unless if PetronM had raised it retails sales volume significantly.

******************************************************************************
Question:
Do u agree ???