Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-26 17:53 | Report Abuse

Wow 39 sen eps..
And trading at 6.3 wtf..
Toooo cheap..
I add more tom...
Congrats petronm..
Hope u become next petdag...
:-))))))))

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-26 17:55 | Report Abuse

Yes if Petronm did not incurred derivatives loss of RM 230 million tomorrow Petronm will fly thro' the roof.

Anyhow if the crack spread can hold till year end then q2 profit will be explosive. Just need to wait for another 3 months for q2 result.

Posted by sikusiku > 2022-05-26 18:25 | Report Abuse

@Sslee

Where do you see the derivatives loss of RM230m? I don't see any mention of it in the latest quarterly report.

Posted by ragate > 2022-05-26 19:00 | Report Abuse

Results are not impressive. Same as last year's same quarter.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-26 19:02 | Report Abuse

@sikusiku,
Yes the latest q1 financial report.
Item 18: Profit before tax is arrived at after charging/(crediting) the following items:

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-26 19:14 | Report Abuse

Revenue RM3800 million.
Sales volume: 7.7 billion barrels
ASP per barrels: RM 3800/7.7 = RM 493.5

If next quarter average realisea profit margin of USD 15 per barrels then Profit margin will be usd 7.7x 15 = USD 115.5 million. That will be very explosive.

You can monitor the crack spread daily at below link.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by sikusiku > 2022-05-26 19:16 | Report Abuse

@Sslee

Thank you for clarifying. I missed that bit.

Posted by Karma4444 > 2022-05-26 19:17 | Report Abuse

Result not so power

Posted by Tobby > 2022-05-26 19:18 | Report Abuse

Fatass profit! What more do you want!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-26 19:20 | Report Abuse

Karma4444 u nut..thats why petronm only just started to go up lor...
Thats first qr results...
Plz imbeciles just shudup if got nothing to talk...

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-26 19:21 | Report Abuse

I miss those days when i was the only one in this forum...lol

Posted by param1 > 2022-05-26 19:36 | Report Abuse

petron is contaminated now all the sickos from heng have jumped over here

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-05-26 19:56 | Report Abuse

Huat chai

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-26 20:13 | Report Abuse

Cos price went up drastically for 6 days

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-26 20:43 | Report Abuse

:-)))))

Posted by Michael Tan > 2022-05-26 21:44 | Report Abuse

Expect 'active' hurricane season, U.S. forecasters warn

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-26 23:27 | Report Abuse

Revenue RM3800 million.
Sales volume: 7.7 billion barrels
ASP per barrels: RM 3800/7.7 = RM 493.5
1 barrel equal 159 liter
ASP per litre for Q1 2022 is RM 493.5/159 = RM 3.104 /liter.

What will be the ASP for Q2 month April, May and June?
You can monitor the unsubsidized RON 97 price at below link.

https://www.comparehero.my/transportation/articles/latest-petrol-price-ron95-ron97-diesel

Posted by sheldon > 2022-05-26 23:40 | Report Abuse

Compared to corresponding quarter, revenue increased 90% but EPS only by a paltry 3.4%. The 230m derivative loss is massive although I believe a big chunk is unrealised. Did a rogue trader contribute to this calamity?

Despite the leaping oil prices and the so-called improving crack spreads, the results are disappointing. Looks like the management lacked the caliber and could not seize the moment and make some windfall profits. The massive derivative loss implies that the traders seriously failed at almost every hand in the game trying to out guess the crude price trajectory. They were not mediocre but below mediocre.

Posted by sheldon > 2022-05-26 23:45 | Report Abuse

I wonder how the 100%-owned sister company had performed. I hope the external auditors are alert to any possible tricks to try to park profits with it and losses with the listed entity.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-26 23:56 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan is a complex refiner which produces 35% diesel + 40% gasoline with almost 0% fuel oil (with the rest Jet Fuel & LPG)

PetronM is a simple refiner which produces almost 10% Fuel Oil..

Crack Spread of Fuel Oil is NEGATIVE.

This is a critical difference between Hengyuan & PetronM majority do not know and will always fail to know (on top of the real refining throughput of these refiners)

Posted by probability > 2022-05-26 23:57 | Report Abuse

Look at Fuel Oil spread on March 22'

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3ASF31!

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-27 08:05 | Report Abuse

Per QR, total derivative losses charged is RM230 mil, out of which $52 mil is unrealised.
Hopefully, the unrealised portion of $52mil which is a temporary mark to market difference will come back in next qtr (?).
Imagine if there is no massive RM230 mil derivative losses charged, Q1 results would have been explosive too.
If the treasury people/traders don't screw up again, Q2's profit will surely be explosive!

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-27 08:44 | Report Abuse

a bit of creative accounting going on here, i guess

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-05-27 08:53 | Report Abuse

Sslee

Petronm normally do not hedge much because Petronm sell their main products thro retail petrol station direct to consumers hence I was suprise why Petronm inccured a derivative losses of 230 million in q1 end 31th March 2022.

someone can answer Sslee queries? I wonder why

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-27 08:55 | Report Abuse

The 230 million mark to market losses with 52 million unrealised and 178 million realised.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-27 09:24 | Report Abuse

From below article - Hengyuan refinery falls under Deep Conversion and since PetronM does not even have a Catalytic Cracker it falls under Hydroskimmer category

Check out Fuel Oil portion of the yield


https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/Insight1/2018-02-03-story146257-DIFFERENCE_between_PETRONM_and_HENGYUAN

Posted by sheldon > 2022-05-27 09:39 | Report Abuse

Think about this ... The share price shot up in anticipation of a favourable quarterly results against the backdrop of better crack spreads & inventory gains etc. Then the price started a steep downfall to something reflective of the results even before the results were announced.

There's a term for such a phenomenon.

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-27 09:44 | Report Abuse

"buy on rumour & sell on news"

Posted by param1 > 2022-05-27 10:58 | Report Abuse

MURPHY S LAW

Posted by param1 > 2022-05-27 11:15 | Report Abuse

sheldon

Think about this ... The share price shot up in anticipation of a favourable quarterly results against the backdrop of better crack spreads & inventory gains etc. Then the price started a steep downfall to something reflective of the results even before the results were announced.

There's a term for such a phenomenon.



profit taking

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-27 11:32 | Report Abuse

Guys look.
This is a cornered share..
No one cares on the reports..
Only we do..
Kaki goreng dont care..it will go up wit kaki goreng ok..
So its either is gorenged or not..good results or bad dont mean anything..
Wake me up when it reaches rm20...
I m off to golf...
:-)))))

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-27 12:19 | Report Abuse

Supersinginvestor is right. Petronm free float share is very limited hence it will depend on kaki goreng to make use story of high crack spread and Atlantic hurricane season from June through November to goreng up petronm to reach RMXX.

Posted by klsejeff88 > 2022-05-27 14:21 | Report Abuse

Very True. Big boys need to goreng then can jump

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-27 15:07 | Report Abuse

cash flow loss from operating activities narrowed this quarter. is this a good sign?

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-27 15:38 | Report Abuse

i dont understand

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-27 15:47 | Report Abuse

Cash flow are tie down to increase in invetories value and receivables (Government Fuel subsidise payment)
Cash flow before change in working capital is positive RM 237,338,000

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-27 16:03 | Report Abuse

Now all sellers aldy sold...
Then only way is up...
I waiting for 2 limit up..
Hope can get..

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-27 16:05 | Report Abuse

I m not greedy..
2 limit up enough for me..
Hehe..

Posted by hengpetron > 2022-05-27 16:15 | Report Abuse

crack spread high also useless, even hy last 2qtr also same. Exhange losses. revenue jump 100% profit hamper

Posted by dompeilee > 2022-05-27 16:28 | Report Abuse

My 'mkt wizard' friend already sold all @ 6.04, missed out on extra $1,600 profit.

Posted by dompeilee > 2022-05-27 16:29 | Report Abuse

Scared to pay broker too much in extra commission by selling in batches. Forgone profit far exceeds quantum of extra commission.

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2022-05-27 20:11 | Report Abuse

hibiscus drop 1.25
petdag also drop
what happen

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-27 20:34 | Report Abuse

Sell in may and go away

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-27 21:51 | Report Abuse

Come back Aug for q2 result.

Posted by VTrade > 2022-05-28 00:56 | Report Abuse

Today open high go low when oil at 114.8
Esok will open low and go low even oil 115++. ?

Cuaca tidak berbau

Posted by Sslee > 2022-05-28 09:50 | Report Abuse

Refining business profit is depend on refining margin (crack spread). The oil price up or down only give you quarterly inventories gain/loss.

Most likely Petronm overhedge its derivatives financial instruments:
Forward exchange contracts and Commodity swaps thus result in a Loss of derivatives: RM 230,011,000 in quarter financial end 31 March 2022?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-05-28 11:00 | Report Abuse

Now waiting for petron to become kubur like kyy and subur

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-28 13:35 | Report Abuse

@Sslee, the derivative loss is certainly in commodity swap. I think Petronm hedged too aggressively the crude (raw material) they need for refining. Bear in mind that crude Brent price swung wildly in the qtr. It started (3rd Jan) at around USD78 and increased all the way to around USD124 (8th Mar) and plunged to USD96 (16th Mac) and it ended at USD103 on 31 Mac. When the Ukraine war broke out, oil traders in PetronM might have taken big position at high end of the price (eg USD124) thinking that Brent could scaled beyond USD124. Unfortunately, Brent came off drastically after peaking at USD124 around 8th march.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-28 13:53 | Report Abuse

makes sense and possible

on the other hand, i also wonder could they have hedge on the refined products side more as they outsource these (from parent company petron) with a certain fixed margin and the explosion on the refined products price at the end of Mar 22'' would have reflected as lost opportunity on capitalizing these margin expansion due to hedging

if they had not hedged, the profit would have been explosive basically


Posted by Johnzhang > May 28, 2022 1:35 PM | Report Abuse

@Sslee, the derivative loss is certainly in commodity swap. I think Petronm hedged too aggressively the crude (raw material) they need for refining. Bear in mind that crude Brent price swung wildly in the qtr. It started (3rd Jan) at around USD78 and increased all the way to around USD124 (8th Mar) and plunged to USD96 (16th Mac) and it ended at USD103 on 31 Mac. When the Ukraine war broke out, oil traders in PetronM might have taken big position at high end of the price (eg USD124) thinking that Brent could scaled beyond USD124. Unfortunately, Brent came off drastically after peaking at USD124 around 8th march.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-28 14:05 | Report Abuse

you can see their net profit margin has barely changed from previous qtr...at such thin margin between outsourced refined products from parent company and retail price (pre-agreed terms with Petron Philippines), they cannot capitalize the rise in refined products price at the end of Mar 22'

the crack expansion was solely benefitted by the refinery (parent company) with fat margin