klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/kltrader/123116.jsp Outlook
Whilst earnings recovery has yet to gain broad momentum (construction and banks most convincing), MQ Research remains risk-on given robust liquidity, macro and reform/restructuring support for the broad market. Big-cap top picks are Sime Darby, Tenaga, Telekom, CIMB, IHH, AirAsia, Gamuda and SP Setia. Mid-cap picks are POS (M), Time dotCom, MRCB, Bumi Armada and Gas (M). Switch out of Petronas Dagangan, Petronas Gas, BAT, DiGi, and Hartalega.
Apolloang..u dont know read Financial Report meh? Do u know timecom share price now is cheaper if u compare to REACH energy price..do u understand what i mean,so okay..if not..just go n study how to know company value..
just now I glance thru only, cos see over a few hundred stocks.anyway also profit down almost 15%,maybe down 20-30cts. but I wouldn't be buying also cos felt that this stock didn't worth this much,the most I see is worth 8-8.50 max
before election market uncertain,funds manager and foreign funds money would not flow in fundamental big cap and mid cap stock now no prospects,because everybody scare buy high losses money ,expect fund manager money would flow out in big and mid cap stock cannot hold and buy. TOP volume all low prices stocks.This is a opportunity ,markets money now flows in cheaper stocks. sharks now start goreng lows price stock at bottom..
On TIME, once again, not a cheap stock. And this year, the initial depreciation cost for the new cables, drop in IRU and lack of one off forex gains really whack the earnings.
But retail is still expanding very very quickly (106% increase over the previous year), and 5G will not be as big of a threat as i thought it might.
I'll just hold. The price may not even move much for 1-2 years, as the chart available at malaysiastock.biz includes a lot of other income in the previous years which will not be available moving forward.
But, moving forward, 1-2 years of continuous increasing in revenue and earnings may improve investor visibility, so we still have 1-2 years to collect.
I don't dare to buy more now as it is already 30%, the largest position, and the stock valuations is not cheap. But 6-12 months from now, when portfolio is bigger, who knows. =)
Posted by Kristal > Dec 30, 2017 01:13 AM | Report Abuse
Operational profit have fallen this year higher depreciation of RM6.7 million mainly due to the completion of SKR1M and AAE-1 cable systems during the year, as well as the impact of depreciation from the Asia Pacific Gateway submarine cable system, which was not fully included in the results for 2016 as the cable system was only completed on 28 October 2016.
In addition, there was a higher net loss on foreign exchange of RM17.6 million in 9M 2017 compared to RM5.2 million in 9M 2016, and zero dividend income for the year compared to the previous year, as all their DIGI shares have been disposed.
Naturally, more care must be taken to ensure these cost are truly one of or extraordinary, and not one-off/extraordinary cost that happen with regularity.
In addition, lower one-off IRU sales, also contributed to lower profit.
If you ask me what result will happen next year, or whats the future profit figure, i have absolutely no idea. I only know its a fantastic business that has resilient growth at an ok-ish price.
Like i said, i don't dare to buy more as it is not cheap and the size at 28% of portfolio is big enough for me. It may even be too big at this price. Future purchase will only be if my portfolio becomes to big and i need to re-balance it, incredible out-performance in fundamentals, or incredible drop in price.
I'm not looking at 3 month period for this one, im looking at 3-5 years at least. Unless you are willing to really understand this company (especially since its really not cheap at all) and do you own valuation. Id suggest something else. LATITUD or FAVCO is an easier buy.
Posted by uptrending > Jan 1, 2018 12:01 PM | Report Abuse
Jon, Profits have been coming down in the recent quarters, what sre the reasons ? Thanks...
Also, Q4 2016, they have fantastic IRU sales and huge deferred tax gain. So this coming quarter is probably not going to bea last years.
This should mean some possible discounts come febuary. I won't sell as i promised myself to only purchase or sell on fundamentals or value, and not prediction of price movements.
You may feel differently. Different strokes for different folks.
Revenue is increasing but the PE now on the higher side same like Maxis, Axiata, Digi...last year PE 11.05, now shooting to 30.08...too bad to hold....waiting for PE to reduce below 15 and will only consider to reenter
True, difference is this. TIME has plenty of room to grow, and they will keep all their current customers and continue taking customers from the rest.
You can't say that for any of the others.
When i paid average 9.4 or so. I paid above fair value for it. At 8. Its at fair value, or maybe a little lower. Its already my largest position at 31% of portfolio.
It needs to drop to something like 15-20 PE before i can top up. Either way, if my analysis is correct, and this turns out to be the next public bank 10-20 years from now. Whether i paid 8 or 9.4 will make little difference. The question is if i held it for that 10-20 years.
Anyway, as always, let me know if i missed out something. Criticism is always much preferred. Its hard to know if you're wrong with compliments.
Posted by singgang > Feb 26, 2018 04:52 PM | Report Abuse
Revenue is increasing but the PE now on the higher side same like Maxis, Axiata, Digi...last year PE 11.05, now shooting to 30.08...too bad to hold....waiting for PE to reduce below 15 and will only consider to reenter
I believe this company is good for a long term...as i used to invest more than 50% of my portfolio....but when I realized the PE is suddenly up then I quickly disposed all my share....I just waiting the right time to reinvest again when the price is undervalue..i.e PE <15 or <10....Overtime i strongly believe this company will group up and give market capitalization equally to its peers like TM,Maxis or digi......but i would take a longer time by looking at current growth now. And by that time I would miss other attractive counter which is growing much faster than time.
Haha didnt really affect me, cause i know what the normalized PE was. I was ready to pay 30 normalized P/E. But like i told everyone it is fair value or above fair value and not cheap.
Problem is, truly fantastic companies are almost never cheap. PBBANK is always one of the most expensive banks in malaysia for the last 50 years.
This stock i know, if i tmr coma, wake up 30 year later. My portfolios should still be ok. I can don't want look at stocks or annual reports for a year also can. Very few companies can give me that.
In the meantime, paper loss since my average is 9.5. its ok, i have no commitments, everything in cash. i can hold or even top up if the time comes.
singgang I believe this company is good for a long term...as i used to invest more than 50% of my portfolio....but when I realized the PE is suddenly up then I quickly disposed all my share....I just waiting the right time to reinvest again when the price is undervalue..i.e PE <15 or <10....Overtime i strongly believe this company will group up and give market capitalization equally to its peers like TM,Maxis or digi......but i would take a longer time by looking at current growth now. And by that time I would miss other attractive counter which is growing much faster than time. 27/02/2018 16:02
@Jon Choivo I truly agree with your statement. I'm not scared to hold this company cuz I experienced their service myself. I have been using Time's service for 7 years now. My internet line only went down twice throughout. Their retail sales almost double if you read properly. This means their recurring profit is doing good.
Their AIMS data center is also impressive. Double digit growth until now. And most importantly for me, they do reward their shareholders. For me, Time > TM x1000. Easy.
I wrote a small bit of research on it, let me know if i missed out on anything, especially if you feel i made a mistake. Id like the perspective of a user. I never had the chance to your their lines.
I agree with what your review, basically sums up what they have at the moment.
As a User of Time Fibre, their service has been very satisfactory for me and the people I recommended it to. 7 years, 3 locations, 2 times internet down, that's it. I have been noticing more and more Time's advertisement everywhere from offline to online platforms too. Whereas for reviews, if you read carefully enough, you will notice that Time's good ratio to bad is much better than TM. Most of the complaints will be "Why no coverage here blablabla similar" - only if these people know that the market is monopolized and one specific player has backing from the authorities.
From what I can see, Time has been expanding very actively despite majority of the market is being monopolized. My review is simple. If they can do so well while being pinned down by larger player, try imagine what they can do if the ports are fully opened? As per your review, I too can view this when I do a simple research in Time (If I am first time investor for Time).
1. They did not focus solely on Malaysia. They have infrastructure connecting from SG > TH maybe even further.
2. Their core business now is slowly moving to be distributed proportionately between their retail sector and datacenter. Data center has been growing fast.
3. Internet is one thing people cannot live without now, with Time, I can say whenever Time is present, well informed users will choose Time over TM/Celcom/Maxis fiber. So even if global crisis, people still need internet. Unless the crisis wipes out worldwide internet (if it did, investment is probably the last thing you'll be worried about), people still need internet. And guess who's recurring profit is growing at double digits?
4. Even with their lacking in terms of infrastructure / large investments from some large bodies, they still manage to put up such a strong fight. Even with the entrance of Broadcom, I don't see them posing a huge threat to Time. All infrastructure based business need time to lay its foundation and expand. That gives existing companies to store up cash to fight price war in the future.
5. The BoD is doing a good job and pointing the company in the correct direction in preparation for future (data center, IOT), that is my view.
6. Last but not least, even with the lacking of infrastructure, that did not stop Time from doing this.
Until late 2018 or 2019, when people can clearly see the figures, on the sites, it should not move much. I really hope i will get a chance to top up on this one, but there are so many bargains now. And time is not cheap.
Time is the only company in my portfolio, where i know if tmr crisis, and this one drop 50% i can top up all the way. The others are cheap, but the business and its position is no where near as good.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tecpower
3,536 posts
Posted by tecpower > 2017-04-12 22:43 | Report Abuse
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