I hope that too. Any idea it will announce next dividend? ( Please don't say I greedy, recent one not yet EX, already asking for next dividend. I think every investor has same thinking like me. Anyway, this company is capable to do so. Look at last year's dividend, every quarter without fail, furthermore they are in expansion mode.)
Only 1st Q no dividend. Interim & final dividend in the 4th Q . Effectively, we'll get dividend every quarter. 1.5 for interim & 2.5 for final making a total of 7 for the year is acceptable. 2 for interim & 2.5 final making a total of 8.5 is fantastic.
U just need to predict the next 2 or more quarters whether in terms of q-o-q or three quarters combined could make more money than the previous year's, u can almost expect a bull run real soon. If the next Q2 and Q3 surpass previous year's in terms of q-o-q/y-o-y, u can expect the bull to sprint & surge towards the end of Q4 results.
I strongly believe Hevea's 2017 financial results as a whole 2017 will definitely surpass last year's so that's why I purchased so much. Any short-selling RSS activities are just presenting better entry price levels for me & those who are opportunists.
Its high-yield dividend payouts at each quarter will support your holding tolerance and longer terms of holdings.
Another area that I observe it is the way Hevea spent its CAPEX. No matter how much a company spent on CAPEX, it must churn out the benefits and returns in the shortest time possible. Hevea has done extremely well in utilizing its money whereby the greatest turnaround plans years ago have bear really great results making the company almost debts free (No gearing) with the high cash surplus holdings maintaining above RM 100m+ at all times now.
Hevea's cash holdings of RM 128m and low debts of RM 15m coupled with earning power of averagely RM 20m per quarter based on past year's while CAPEX is RM 48m contracted for this year. So another 3 more quarters would netted the company with extra RM 60m+ or more averagely. Therefore:
RM 128m (current cash) + 60m (approx. combined net profits for next 3 qtrs) = 188m
RM 188m - 48m (CAPEX) = RM 140m cash by end of the year while maintaining the low debts of RM 15m or possibly paring down debts further.
I speculate by end of the year, its cash holdings will increase to RM 140m last standing given the high sales of its products due to the Ringgit is still weak which is good for competitively priced exports. The gradual increase in cash holdings will also partly be used to fund dividend payouts. In the end of this year, cash would still be increasingly high to fund future rewards to shareholder.
U can go check out the RTA furniture sections of department stores across the nations. There u will see Hevea's products dominated the shelves of those stores. Under the Heveapac brand. Talk to the people on the ground and u will understand what I've always speculated so far.
bad business or good business..is not an investor responsibility,,it is the CEO's job..Investors can leave anytime to choose others better stocks to buy.
twentybaggers, Your analysis is partially correct, yet not entirely correct. Let me add to your half glass full statement.
Heveaboard is not a bad business, it is a cyclical business yes. If it's a bad business, it wouldn't have above average ROIC, and gross margin.
Then there is the least understood part, unless you read all the AR. Just looking at the figures and you'll never figure this out. There is moat - but narrow, not wide. Their particleboard use E0 and E1 super standard, not the common standard, hence there is some form of barrier of entry. But when the moat is narrow, it all boils down to cost control, cost control itself IS ALSO A MOAT. Go read it up. I'd say Hevea did really well on cost control.
Another competitive advantage Hevea has is the ability to assemble it's RTA division using it's own particleboard division, giving it flexibility to switch between the two depending on industry cycle. Not every board/ furniture companies can do this because of the different standards used. Evergreen only started to emulate Hevea recently, but whether if it's succeed is another story.
Maybe subpar is a better word rather than "bad". I agree that it has a moat but doesnt mean the business itself is fantastic. There is better business out there that doesnt depends on external factor. Also, i did said HEVEA has a cost advantage.
And i agree that HEVEA has a better management than EVERGREEN (cant even earn higher than their cost of capital).
But yeah, HEVEA is a much better pick than EVERGREEN. But there is more companies with wider MOAT which is what i am trying to say.
Rather than saying "subpar", I'd say it's your "standard" business. I'd like to think "subpar" as when your ROIC cannot even cover your WACC, destroying it's value over time. Now that is subpar.
Standard business brought at valuable price, is better than wonderful business brought at expensive price. Otherwise I've wouldda've brought Homeriz, which has a higher margin and and better ROIC.
Anyway I don't mean any hostility, I'm just being constructively critical and help to contribute to make the glass full. I may sound crude but that's just the way I say things lol, but my intention is good.
Haha maybe my definition of a standatrd business is different. But even a bad business can earn higher than their WACC given the cycle is at the peak. HEVEA is definitely undervalued at this moment though!
U speak of MOAT? Hevea is a well diversified company. Currently it has 2 main core inter-related businesses namely particleboard & RTA. With the third soon-to-be core business to commence operation once the RM10 plant is complete. Its income streams well spread proportionately 40% and 60% of total annual revenues from particleboard and RTA respectively.
Also notice that this company is only interested to get involved in businesses that command "double-digit profit margins" and both its core divisions have delivered just that. Although I cannot verify it myself but from the transcripts shared by someone here who attended the recent AGM, the Hevea's management stated that the new Gourmet fungi business command over 40% profit margins. This is a positive surprise because conservatively I'd expect it in the range 20%-30%.
From the info that I've gathered, Hevea is the only listed company pursuing a large scale gourmet fungi business in Malaysia through its wholly-owned company Heaveagro.
Someone said Hevea's business is subpar? I haven't even reveal what's so appealing to big money into Hevea leh. If u want to know, u just have to ask nicely.
Hevea appeals to me. Thats what matters. I dont have to know, so i wont ask. Anything further than that, then i will be speculating. I know what i don't know.
Those who worry better sell on Tuesday after ex-date,don't hesitate,if not you can't sleep well.For me,I'll continue to buy from those who want to dispose.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sarahdeaton
1,609 posts
Posted by sarahdeaton > 2017-06-03 14:54 | Report Abuse
Next dividends is around 3 cents. Omģ...i am pleased.