Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-06 11:15 | Report Abuse

Choivo trying to be another troll? Why don't you stick to your stock analysis, instead of eating time in coldish comments. Oh wait, none of your investment thesis ever seen to come true.

Ok now about your 200 million owners earnings for petronm. If it doesn't come true like you said it will in 2019( one quarter left to go), I want you to write in your articles a preface, " I am usually wrong in my analysis, and take my article with a grain of salt as I have no long term earnings results to back my writing".

Deal?

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-06 14:47 | Report Abuse

Lolol this is great, please take the bet on Choivo boy

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-06 15:05 | Report Abuse

Before i take on the bet, it is in your interest to know that 9m owners earnings for PETRONM is RM602m.

Unless by some miracle, ie, govt have not paid out the subsidies, i'm very unlikely to lose.




Also phillip,

What are you giving in return?

I've read all your comments on QL (odd right) and i don't see the value of your article (for me).

Because whatever you say about them, i agree with you. Wonderful bosses, super competent, i love family mart etc.

I just don't agree on the price (and even if i did after your article, the value of it is just not equivalent to what im giving up for this bet).

But i wont mind receiving some QL shares for free though.

Like this lah, if below 200m you donate to my fund 10000 shares in QL, with the proviso that im not allowed to sell it for the next 10 years.

And this is for me to keep that comment on there for one year.

For every additional year, add 105% number of shares (compounding), so 2 years will be (10000+10050) etc.

You also need to disclose to me your full name and ic number (via email), for our mutual protection, i'll send over a simple agreement after.




Having said that, i'd rather not take on the bet. You're a great dude Phillip, just need to chill a bit more.

You got RM50m already, children all study overseas, happy family. You got it made.

Why spend time proving yourself/arguing with people online, and being angry at strangers online.

Also do note when i disagree with you, i'm not trying to prove you wrong, i'm trying to prove myself wrong.

Because you're a smart guy and if i miss anything, you have a high probability of pointing it out.

I'm here to make money.

And i can only do this via selling investments that people have shown to me to be mediocre. And to buy investments which people have shown to be amazing.



====
Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 6, 2020 11:15 AM | Report Abuse

Choivo trying to be another troll? Why don't you stick to your stock analysis, instead of eating time in coldish comments. Oh wait, none of your investment thesis ever seen to come true.

Ok now about your 200 million owners earnings for petronm. If it doesn't come true like you said it will in 2019( one quarter left to go), I want you to write in your articles a preface, " I am usually wrong in my analysis, and take my article with a grain of salt as I have no long term earnings results to back my writing".

Deal?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-06 15:08 | Report Abuse

anyway, bought more pchem ytd.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-06 17:10 | Report Abuse

Oh gosh using made up figures again, that is the problem you had with hengyuan and petronm. And not to mention serba dinamik. Your net earnings 3Q is 140,160,000 thereabouts. If you want to make up numbers from the air line serba dinamik case again, then it is a total waste of time, just like you say pe50 ql is at 6.7 overpriced, gkent only 1 billion in revenue from lrt3 etc.

In that case, something fishy about the way you calculate.

Good day and have fun doing your magic math.

Posted by Jaya > 2020-02-06 17:13 | Report Abuse

Choivo
I bought a fair amount lately when it fell like shit
Now laughing to the bank, holding for long time in portfolio
Dividend given by them is also good

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-06 19:13 | Report Abuse

Philip, I do not know how Choivo counts owner's earnings, but I was under the impression that c) would represent capital expenditure found in the cash flows from investing activities under PPE, taking the entire figure would be the free cash flow, safer rather than determining which portion of that is growth capex or maintenance capex. I do not know how else would one count it other than what I mentioned.

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-06 19:25 | Report Abuse

I think Choivo took the net cash from operating activities from Jan to September. Doing so amounts to 975m, deducting the total capital expenditure of 345m would reach roughly the same figure as Choivo.

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-07 11:07 | Report Abuse

haha

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-09 01:48 | Report Abuse

Looking back at this, Buffet’s Owner’s Earnings require a calculation of changes in working capital, if one looks at the latest QR available, the changes to the working capital is positive, this means that working capital reduced resulting in more cash available to the owners, this needs to be added back, on top of depreciation and amortization

Posted by BearishTrend > 2020-02-09 02:31 | Report Abuse

Crude oil downtrending in long run.. Beware

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-11 11:39 | Report Abuse

OIL price is roller coaster

down then will up & repeat

Posted by PaulNewman > 2020-02-12 08:06 | Report Abuse

At this price, I felt that PCHEM is reasonable. The new PIC plant will be using Naptha instead of natural gas. I have a feeling that margins might come down from the incremental output.

Philip, May I ask what is the long term growth prospect for PCHEM in both segments of their business? They just built one of the biggest refinery in the world. Further CAPEX seems unlikely to come from the plastic chemical business.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-12 10:05 | Report Abuse

Does your wife and daughter use facial products and skincare products? They are amongst the highest margin products in the market. More and more individuals will be using beauty products as the process become lower and more affordable ( Sasa, Watson, Sephora). Da Vinci acquisition produces these speciality chemicals and aromatics, the only problem is previously the company scale and financial is too small to supply to the main manufacturers. Pchem has the money, and soon with PIC the production capacity. You can read the ongoing process of Fujifilm ( yes the camera film producer) and their skincare products derived from their know-how in making chemicals work for film. A multi billion dollar business from an obsolete technology.

This is an entirely new segment.

Another, from the Star:

Over the week, PetChem, which is one of the largest integrated chemicals producers in South-East Asia, reached a final investment decision for an isononanol plant within the Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) in Johor.

Importantly, the US$442mil (RM1.95bil) isononanol plant, which would account for 17% of the PetChem’s US$2.6bil capex for petrochemical facilities in Pengerang, would mark the group’s entry into a niche business with high entry barrier, and predominantly controlled and commercialised by technology owners for own captive use.

PetChem’s proposed isononanol plant is expected to come on-stream by the second half of 2019, with an annual production capacity of 250,000 tonnes.

The company guided that isononanol is an oxo alcohol which is mainly used for the production of Diisononyl phthalate, a high molecular weight phthalate plasticiser which is widely used in industrial applications such as automotive, wires and cables, flooring, buildings and construction.

With high margins due to high flammability ( niche product which highly used but hard to manufacture) and quantity of scale ( meaning they can product at cheaper price than competitors and with bigger volume),

I advise you to look carefully into what exactly is pangerang supposed to achieve, it's production targets and goals, the capability of management to achieve those targets and the history of pchem in achieving those said goals.

In terms of demand I have no worries, petrochemicals are really the wonder product of the Y2K age. More and more used for petrochemicals are being found for more and more wife ranging applications.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-12 15:23 | Report Abuse

Well, i hope you're right.

Why don't you write a consolidated post for all your thoughts on PCHEM. Think of it as charity work.

I'm generally ok with pchem at this price, and recently bought some, but my thesis is a little different from yours, and i definitely don't understand the pengerang project as well as you do.

We might all learn something that day.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-12 18:17 | Report Abuse

Haha,
Everythings we manufacture and use are mostly hydrocarbon. These hydrocarbon can be derived from petrochemical or oleochemical or plant/animal extract or or married of both petrochemical and oleochemical. So the usage are limitless.

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-02-12 19:22 | Report Abuse

But wait! Doesn’t petrochemicals become feedstock for palm oil? resulting in oleochemicals? And over thousands of years, that palm oil trees would become hydrocarbons?
So it is! One big cycle of Carbon.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-12 19:30 | Report Abuse

Philip, B$ u say like that, as if, like pchem is the only manufacturer of that products, but actually they are many more players mah...!!

Pchem is the Johnny come lately loh...!! Do u think Pchem can dislodge the establish players leh ??

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 12, 2020 10:05 AM | Report Abuse

Does your wife and daughter use facial products and skincare products? They are amongst the highest margin products in the market. More and more individuals will be using beauty products as the process become lower and more affordable ( Sasa, Watson, Sephora). Da Vinci acquisition produces these speciality chemicals and aromatics, the only problem is previously the company scale and financial is too small to supply to the main manufacturers. Pchem has the money, and soon with PIC the production capacity. You can read the ongoing process of Fujifilm ( yes the camera film producer) and their skincare products derived from their know-how in making chemicals work for film. A multi billion dollar business from an obsolete technology.

This is an entirely new segment.

Another, from the Star:

Over the week, PetChem, which is one of the largest integrated chemicals producers in South-East Asia, reached a final investment decision for an isononanol plant within the Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) in Johor.

Importantly, the US$442mil (RM1.95bil) isononanol plant, which would account for 17% of the PetChem’s US$2.6bil capex for petrochemical facilities in Pengerang, would mark the group’s entry into a niche business with high entry barrier, and predominantly controlled and commercialised by technology owners for own captive use.

PetChem’s proposed isononanol plant is expected to come on-stream by the second half of 2019, with an annual production capacity of 250,000 tonnes.

The company guided that isononanol is an oxo alcohol which is mainly used for the production of Diisononyl phthalate, a high molecular weight phthalate plasticiser which is widely used in industrial applications such as automotive, wires and cables, flooring, buildings and construction.

With high margins due to high flammability ( niche product which highly used but hard to manufacture) and quantity of scale ( meaning they can product at cheaper price than competitors and with bigger volume),

I advise you to look carefully into what exactly is pangerang supposed to achieve, it's production targets and goals, the capability of management to achieve those targets and the history of pchem in achieving those said goals.

In terms of demand I have no worries, petrochemicals are really the wonder product of the Y2K age. More and more used for petrochemicals are being found for more and more wife ranging applications.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-02-12 19:38 | Report Abuse

so it went up?

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-12 19:46 | Report Abuse

You should not take me at my word. My advice is always to question information and do your own due diligence. If you cannot spend 3 hours to read up ( these says all information can be bought online, unlike during the 90s and 80s when physical hardcopy reports were all we had to go by), then you really have no reason to buy this stock as it will be outside your circle of competence.

If it is outside your circle of competence, you will only lose money in the long term as you will for bad habits in simply buying stocks without researching fully.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-12 20:17 | Report Abuse

philip.....present condition don't favor your style......so how?


present condition favors Karim and his Serba, Kpower and SCIB.....

favors concept stocks....

because the world looks so risky, want to take risk might as well go for concept stocks ..........................and that seems to be what everyone is doing...........


show me a concept with Karim in it ( or Karim clone) , I show u profits.........................

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-12 20:18 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha i3lurker,
No. It went down so that I can collect slowly.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-13 01:15 | Report Abuse

I wonder who these establish players that have a hold of the market within SEA region? I for one would like to find out who, as pchem is already the 4th biggest in the world in terms of production, and the biggest producer in our region... Which is why they have massive profit margins compared to Europe and USA importers.

>>>>>>>

Pchem is the Johnny come lately loh...!! Do u think Pchem can dislodge the establish players leh ??

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-02-13 16:52 | Report Abuse

it went up again?

Posted by untong > 2020-02-13 17:05 | Report Abuse

PCHEM is blessed geographically, supply side (sister co. agreement), demand side (free trade agreement within SEA and with CHINA vs Japan/Korea),growing demand on petrochemicals products in the region; cash rich, government supported, i am not worried hehehe

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-13 20:13 | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
Don't keep asking join me in buying Pchem. Today Philip's Gkent up by 8%.

Posted by stingray_ea > 2020-02-14 09:45 | Report Abuse

Wow any sifu here buy of sell???

Posted by stingray_ea > 2020-02-14 09:53 | Report Abuse

Any shark here ???

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-14 18:07 | Report Abuse

but the share price keep on down

i average down until pokai already

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-18 14:51 | Report Abuse

today result to be out

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-26 14:02 | Report Abuse

Petchem very gruesome result out

Profit dropped by 70%

All Ogse upstream like Dayang Penergy and Carimin making more money while this downstream pest chem making so much less?

3iii and Philip both sent so many to Holland

After dlady Holland result more Holland result out for petchem

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-26 14:04 | Report Abuse

Sifu laughed at us as arm chair analyst

He said he went visit pengerang

So what ?

Result like shit

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-26 14:11 | Report Abuse

im crying , huhu

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-26 14:13 | Report Abuse

after lunch session limit down?

Posted by stingray_ea > 2020-02-26 14:15 | Report Abuse

die soon ???

Posted by Titan > 2020-02-26 14:19 | Report Abuse

wow.....will it break rm6 today???....lets wait and see. Dunno how much capital will vaporise today.

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-26 14:25 | Report Abuse

PCHEM will drag KLSE index down

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-26 14:28 | Report Abuse

why now again said low utilisation low due to maintenace?

as i thought last quarter already finish maintenace already?

now quarter have again?

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-26 14:36 | Report Abuse

plant utilisation rate , dont know how much, differ quarter by quarter

maintenance turnaround also dont know how much, some quarter high & low, but so far many turnaround activities

crude oil price

supply & demand of chemicals

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-26 14:39 | Report Abuse

haha,
More discount day sales but hope no margin call forced sales from Philip

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-26 14:44 | Report Abuse

@Philip

so after this quarter result out,

do you think PCHEM still worth to invest or not ?

can you share opinion?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-26 14:51 | Report Abuse

fuiyoh see you at 5

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-26 14:52 | Report Abuse

Philips calling McDonald now

looking for part time job

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-26 14:53 | Report Abuse

I hope you learn something today

LOL

Posted by popo92 > 2020-02-26 14:56 | Report Abuse

hehe add more first before waiting 5

Posted by Titan > 2020-02-26 15:02 | Report Abuse

wah lau.....break 6 ohh....now 5.90......can buy cheaper already. Next Q result lagi sui.......i park 5.50 ....see can get o not....

Posted by Titan > 2020-02-26 15:03 | Report Abuse

icon, what is lesson to learn?


Icon8888 I hope you learn something today

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-02-26 15:09 | Report Abuse

wasnt the writing on the wall for sometime alrdy ? it is just plain silly to keep feeding the losers n starve the winners, thts what I learned..

Posted by shawn88 > 2020-02-26 15:11 | Report Abuse

still healthy.. revenue up compare with last qr ... and cash still a lot

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-26 15:18 | Report Abuse

That profit number sounds about right, have not studied deeper yet, so busyyyyy