If reject deal, worse for rogers. Puncak's cash pile although significant, but burn rate also very high. How many quarters puncak minority shareholders wanna sit and pray without making any changes?
TRIPLC will be left with just RM71m after dividend. Insignificant to acquire any business. Hence, likely to sell of the listing status (may worth RM20m) and distribute all the remaining funds within the permitted time frame (normally 1 year). Note that under PN16, 90% of the funds must be placed under trust.
1. It's a sensible thing to distribute most of the proceeds back to shareholders. For new acquisitions, the company can always gear up or raise appropriate amount for it. If reverse takeover, will just issue shares, so the management did the right thing by not keeping too much cash around
2. As highlighted before, high dividend is the best chance that triplc shareholders will vote for the deal. Of course, no disposal then there won't be dividend. It's a package deal, you have to vote for both or otherwise, no cherry picking
3. People have been asking again whether the price is fair to triplc shareholders.If you refer to my earlier articles, it's clear that the deal significantly undervalues triplc concession and land. But Malaysian investors are very simplistic, they just want to look at PE, Now Z1P3 earnings kicking in, then people start to buy because of low PE. Before that, they just can't see the intrinsic value. So I don't expect investors to fully appreciate triplc, that's why in this case I'm leaning towards realising the investment at a reasonable (not full) and certain value rather than betting on our investors starting to understand concession biz
4. With this bumper dividend, I think there is a high chance that most shareholders will vote for the deal. Puncak approval is not a big obstacle considering they just need 50% approval and they are already getting a good deal (some stuck-up shareholders finally realise that after seeing triplc earnings). So come monday it makes no sense for the share price to continue trading at such huge discount (>25%) to the disposal price anymore. This would be the reward for patient triplc shareholders
Hi Jay, thank you for sharing your insight and sincerely appreciate your views. However, where should triplc minority shareholder look to TP? what level would you suggest?
Although 210 mio disposal price should translate to about rm 3.05 a share, but given that the special div is only approx rm 135 mio as compared to 210 mio, where do you think triplc will trade should all parties agree for the disposal to take place?
1.95 in cash, potentially another 1.00 after another year. Given Rozali's reputation, I would give the RM1.00 a discount, valuing it at 0.3. That would put triplc at RM2.25
Triplc (or Pimpinan Ehsan) will be a PN16 company so this time round it's different from Puncak. Puncak got more cash from its disposal but only distribute RM1.00, Triplc distribute RM1.95 which is the max it can distribute with its current retained earnings, if not more approvals needed and delays. If you want to estimate how much the price should trade at, look at previous PN16 examples such as Tecnic or Abric (close to cash level after disposal completed)
but completion risk is minimal now, it would be more of waiting time. igb is also trading at a discount to goldis offer for this reason. triplc should trade closer to 2.70 now (10% discount for the wait)
Instead of criticing and complaining. I choose to make the best out of it, that is to make a good profit out of this trade. So i dont care what ppl say about the mgmt, so long it makes financial sense. Let the rest complain while watching how this counter fly.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
TA_trader
390 posts
Posted by TA_trader > 2017-11-03 17:54 | Report Abuse
Im not expert. Im here to learn. But please stay relevant and dont talk crap.