Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-05 20:42 | Report Abuse

Roger123 If can finalise, why the news didn't reflect on the price?

Roger123, no official news saying the deal can be finalized or couldn't be finalized on 3rd March, this is what we call UNCERTAINTY in the share market, so what are you expecting from the share price?

I understand your pain for losing money from puncak trade, but I sincerely hope that you can stop bad mouthing this counter simply because someone have spent hours to do all the hardwork from number crunching to info sharing just to shows that this counter is undervalued and is worth investing in, regardless on the deal completion on 9th March.

If you want to challenge other people valuation on this share, you are welcome to provide more concrete evidence to convince us in this forum.

btw, mind telling us why are you express so much interest in this counter although you have sold all your shares here? = =

Posted by jayawin > 2015-03-05 21:39 | Report Abuse

I think possible another extension will happen.

Posted by Tornado > 2015-03-05 22:28 | Report Abuse

see light or see no light at the end of the tunnel ?

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-06 08:34 | Report Abuse

nothing will happen on monday

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-06 08:34 | Report Abuse

if something is happening, the price will react

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-06 08:35 | Report Abuse

if something is happening, but no price reaction means something is wrong

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-06 08:36 | Report Abuse

Dont put too much of hope for this stock

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-06 08:38 | Report Abuse

Just my advice......

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-06 08:39 | Report Abuse

Bear in mind Lth is still holding so much. If the price up, Lth will sell. It wont go too far

Posted by titus > 2015-03-06 09:19 | Report Abuse

Hi Roger, wht you are saying as if you didn't say anything at all. Who will not sell when price is up. It depends on individual target. Some people is comfortable with 10c profit. Some might target 50c profit. It depends on individual investment goal. I hold some puncak. With or without the deal, i'm comfortable to continue to hold it.

Posted by jolie2 > 2015-03-06 17:38 | Report Abuse

roger talk rojak

Posted by money888 > 2015-03-06 18:06 | Report Abuse

epf dispose...but share price up...seems market got confidence d...

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-06 19:10 | Report Abuse

Walau weh Roger... I disagree with your statement. The price will definitely react after something certain happened (e.g. official news came out saying the S&P agreement signed, puncak price goes up), but NOT necessary have to react on something with uncertainty. We all know that the deal is delayed to 9 March, and will have chances to either [Complete] or [Further Delay].

So no price reaction doesn't mean something is wrong here.

Why are you so obsess with the water deal? Why do you think the deal is everything for this counter? Do you really spend time to assess the value of the company? People above even analyze for you the value of Puncak WITH or WITHOUT the water deal already!

And why would people want to care about your advice which is just a GUESS on whether the deal is complete or delay??? ZZzzzz

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-06 19:15 | Report Abuse

Roger123 Bear in mind Lth is still holding so much. If the price up, Lth will sell. It wont go too far
06/03/2015 08:39

What are you trying to tell us here? This dumb statement is applied to every other counter =.=

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-06 20:15 | Report Abuse

I have to agree with Roger123 on LTH. We need outside/fence sitter buyers to rush-in to push puncak price to next level and new level. Once you see almost no sellers but just buyers. That "rush" feeling will make everybody willing to jump in. But if LTH suddenly throws in a 500K block, it immediately become a anti-climax and blocked any price increases. I think this what Roger
meant.

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-06 21:10 | Report Abuse

Every counter will have major shareholder, and when major shareholder throw, the share price will definitely be pressured. So what he trying to tell us? Don't buy company with major shareholder? @.@

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-06 21:16 | Report Abuse

So I can apply this same statement to other counter:
"Bear in mind" + (Put major shareholder name here) + " is still holding so much. If the price up, " + (Put major shareholder name here) + "will sell. it wont go too far".

Its just so dumb to ask people sell this share for this reason. Arghhh! God please save humanity

Posted by money888 > 2015-03-06 21:57 | Report Abuse

Lol

Posted by zckoo > 2015-03-06 22:01 | Report Abuse

Haha,funny...agree with Andrew king..

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-06 22:08 | Report Abuse

EPF selling over 300,000 shares in 2 days, wonder why the move? Would have thought EPF keep on buying instead, sigh!

Posted by jolie2 > 2015-03-06 22:19 | Report Abuse

kahhoemg, pls fill-in the blank below

"Bear in mind" + (Put major shareholder name here) + " is still holding so much. If the price up, " + (Put major shareholder name here) + "will sell. it wont go too far".

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-06 22:41 | Report Abuse

haha... just write to release stress, not so keen about selling till the deal is concluded and price goes up

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-07 01:52 | Report Abuse

Hahaha... Let see.... Wat will happen soon... March 9? For sure have nothing

Posted by zckoo > 2015-03-07 07:30 | Report Abuse

Roger123...I wonder why u so sure tat it will b nth at March 9....?u got a insider news?pls share here,we all are very happy here........or u see it just because of the act of share price?

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-07 07:34 | Report Abuse

I didn't ask u all to sell. Just let u all know, the deal is not ok yet, don't chase. If the deal is ok, do u think these big funds are so stupid to sell at this low price? They know info more than us. Let it fall more and buy.

Posted by Tornado > 2015-03-07 10:46 | Report Abuse

I thought EPF is Malaysia Biggest Santa Claus in town

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-07 10:50 | Report Abuse

Roger123, when EPF is acquiring this counter last week, why not you say something like "Big fund is acquiring, let's jump on board"?

Now we know your intention here, which is to bad mouth this counter, Let it fall so that you can buy in at lower price. No wonder you are here although you claim that you have sold all your share la.

You're an As* H0le

Posted by 88729 > 2015-03-07 11:05 | Report Abuse

This EPF people is playing shares with my and your money mah, if you give me money to gamble in Genting, i will just close my eyes and bet, who cares.

Posted by iamnat > 2015-03-07 11:24 | Report Abuse

Come one guys. Don't fight here. We are here to invest and hopefully make some profit . Roger is free to express his view and we are all free to ignore it if we don't agree.

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-07 11:56 | Report Abuse

Lets re-examine what the Puncak potential outcome after 9 Mar. I'm opine there are 3 possible scenario as below:

Scenario 1: Deal delay for 3rd time, extent by another 1 month

Impact: Share price remain weak, trade sideline as most of these uncertainty already price in the current depress price. Market generally dislike uncertainty, tend to discount stock fundamental. Prolong and uncertain over definite date for completion deal will likely prompt short term investor to cut, and discourage potential investor to buy.

It is however a testing time for value investor to either see these a opportunity to accumulate current depress share price and remain stronghold on these investment grade stock or view it as value trap, a opportunity time cost to swap to other more potential stock.


b.) Scenario 2: Deal call off, Puncak refuse to grant any further extension to Air Selangor and forfeit its earnest deposit.

impact: Knee jerk impact on Puncak share price, price react negatively but downside is limited. Puncak share price however will rebound back later as investor will realize that Puncak business direction is clearer now, it will remain as water concession holder

Puncak retain its lucrative water concession, remain control over 45% capacity of state total treated water supply (PNSB) + 70% control of total water supply distribution (Syabas). It will ensure Puncak continue to deliver steady profit over its entire concession period.

Puncak also can capitalize on both Fed and State gov recognition over its outstanding receivables and liabilities in the take over offer document and legal SPA signed, as both gov willing to absorb all Puncak outstanding receivables and liabilities. Despite deal call off, it offer Puncak strong valid reason to win over current ongoing legal case against state gov for its illegal refusal to grant water traffic hike as per concession agreement, resultant Puncak incur such high outstanding receivables and liabilities. If puncak win the legal case, state need to compensate Puncak and its balance sheet will clear and clean from debt laden to cash rich.

Both State and Fed gov also in future cannot force Puncak to surrender its water concession or use Wasia to forcefully take over water assets operation anymore. The reason for take over failed, is not because Puncak unwillingness to sell and give up it core lucrative water concession, but it is solely due to conflict between state and fed gov over future water assets ownership and leaseback agreement.


c.) Scenario 3: Deal is finally seal, Puncak stand to received RM 1.555 billion from Air Selangor, boosting Puncak cash hoard to more than RM 2 billion. Shareholder stand to reward with special dividend at least RM 1/share.

Impact: Share price will play catch up to reflect upcoming special dividend. Ex-dividend, however, Puncak direction depend on ability of management to acquire earning accretive assets to fill up earning gap left by water concession disposal.

Based on Puncak latest Q4 result, water concession contribute profit RM 66.5m, whereas, its oil and gas + construction earn RM 29.9m, therefore, without water concession, Puncak EPS will be slump from 20sen/quarter to just 7 sen/quarter. However, Puncak after payout special dividend, still retain cash hoard more than RM 1.5 billion, even without any assets acquisition, just base on interest deposit 4%, Puncak could earn about RM 15m/quarterly interest income, partially fill up the gap earning.

Hence, ex-disposal, ex-dividend and on fully diluted basis, Puncak quarterly earning still can deliver about RM 45m, give rise to 8.5sen, or annualized EPS at 34sen. If peg Puncak to in par with average oil and gas sector/construction sector of PE 8x, Puncak fair value should be at RM 2.70.

Remark: Investor here is free to exercise own discretion investment decisions. It is FREE market, anymore have right to decide, bear own risk and enjoy own rewards

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-07 12:05 | Report Abuse

hng33. "Puncak fair value should be at RM2.70". Strange I have seen this number 2.70
in "some documents--for your eyes only" And i also estimate that EPF cost is around 2.70
( written in KPS blog yesterday)

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-07 12:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks hng33 for the comprehensive analysis, which touch on both risk and reward

Posted by CaoCao > 2015-03-07 12:37 | Report Abuse

iamnat you also come on lah, Roger is free to express his view this i totally agreed but i can't stand people make false news lah. Remember Mr. Roger said on 4-3-2015 "I already confirmed with my Frenz, the deal is delayed. Too when? He said he don't know. Very complicated blah blah blah", then on the same day the Deputy Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid said " The minister (Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili) had said the Government is optimistic that the main agreement can be finalised by Monday. So far, we are on track.Only one or two items have yet to be resolved but we are confident". Then the next day the price up 4 cents at the closing...... For me the reason the price didn't go up yet is like what Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid said oledi, there is still 1 or 2 items yet to resolved but is optimistic that the main agreement can be finalised by Monday.

Posted by CaoCao > 2015-03-07 12:56 | Report Abuse

Telling lies especially in the writing is not hard, i can even say i just have a lunch with Mr. Obama, but to give a truth with verity information and analyse are going to need a lot of homework and dedication. That's why we need to appreciate and applaud someone like hng33 or stoCKTANerin or somebody like them.

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-07 13:06 | Report Abuse

EPF is a very sophisticate Trader. You don't know when they are buying Or selling because
EPF has many operatives trading in tandem with him on particular stock. When EPF buys,Stock
price actually falls and when sell price will rise. Printed reports actually give you a false image.
After Lehman Brothers crashed, Banking stock crashed too but look at today bank stock.
Foreign Investor Reports said EPF created the biggest stock party in Malaysia And if you
are late you missed the party.

Posted by CaoCao > 2015-03-07 13:18 | Report Abuse

Yeah, u can see in the case of drb hcom, when epf threw like no tomolo until it down to around 1.5, many people thought bad things might have happen to the stock but look now what's the price for drb now??

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-07 13:25 | Report Abuse

Are you caught--CaoCao! I know many many friends spitting at EPF until today--bcos of DRB

Posted by CaoCao > 2015-03-07 13:33 | Report Abuse

Yes, i lose some but only sell recently when the price recover at 1.86 so not so severe

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-07 13:38 | Report Abuse

Lucky you. Most of my friend sell at 1.55-1.60 hoping to buy back at 1.00!!!!!!

Posted by CaoCao > 2015-03-07 13:43 | Report Abuse

OMG... now must be sakit hati no eye see one situation. Thanks for your "lucky" althought i don't fell like one!!

Posted by jayawin > 2015-03-08 01:40 | Report Abuse

Epf dispose share on 2.3.15 and 3.3.15 - 254,400 and 77,400 share. Seem like water deal will be delay again. Really frustrated.

Posted by lyk204 > 2015-03-08 12:33 | Report Abuse

How can know when EPF is buying or selling its stocks ? Where to get the info?

Posted by jayawin > 2015-03-08 12:48 | Report Abuse

See at bursamalaysia annoucement

Posted by sheep > 2015-03-08 12:58 | Report Abuse

going down again..

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-08 13:22 | Report Abuse

jayawin, just don't let EPF trade become part of your investment decision.

SKpetro is a good example here, EPF acquiring it aggressively but it later turns out that Mokhzani resign on 5/3/2015 and the share price was down by 9%, likewise, when EPF disposing a share it doesn't mean a bad news will be out too (Cited CaoCao DRB example above).

Posted by money888 > 2015-03-08 20:22 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow is the D-day

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-08 20:27 | Report Abuse

lets hope the deal will be completed within 15 days, best wishes

Posted by stoCKTANgerin > 2015-03-08 21:01 | Report Abuse

Gonna pray harder tonight...

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-08 21:18 | Report Abuse

delay or deal completion? Nobody knows.
Just be positive, be confident on your own investment decision and don't let it affected by other people simple words.
Cheers.

Posted by titus > 2015-03-09 07:35 | Report Abuse

Possible further extension as selangor government is considering putrajaya request to extend for 1 more month and the propose date is 31st march. That what reported in the news.