FairTalk , based on the balance of 631 millions deposits as at end June , there is still a balance old orders of about 2868 millions with high ASP of above US 80 . There was a drop of 413 millions deposit from 1044 millions in last qtr . I supposed the 1875 million revenue last qtr was mainly from the old orders with spot sales dropped to 5 % . THe 2868 millions old orders can cover the revenue of this qtr 100 % and the balance spill over to next qtr .With the MCO 60 % workforce , we can roughly estimate that the PAT for the coming 2 qtrs will be 1600 millions . The following will be the estimated cash in hand assuming supermx announce another 15 sen each dividend for the next 2 qtrs .
Balance cash as at 30th June 3.78 billions minus dividends ( total 45 sen) 1.22 billions minus expenses for capacity exp 0.28 billion minus deposits 0.63 billiom
add earnings from next 2 qtrs 1.6 billions
Balance cash 3.25 billions
Note : I used a total of 45 sen of dividends by assuming 3 dividends at 15 sen each including the coming dividend which will be paid end of the month . I also assume that the deposits will be zero after supermx deliver all the old orders with deposits . I supposed no more deposits will be collected since the lead time has come down and spot price is lower than contractual prices. I also assume the average capacity expansion payment of 140 millions per qtr ( 1.39 billions paid over 10 qtrs ) . There is a possibility that the final dividend ( usually announced in end Oct or early Nov) will be in the form of treasury shares . If this is the case , we can add back 408 billions to the balance cash piles making it to 3.66 billions .
FairTalk , this is the best I can project and estimate .
Doggie keep barking and more genuine value investors keep buying in happily collecting. Guess what? Short of tickets availability for shorties becoming a concern now. Show is about to start. Let's enjoy together.
Wait till shorties closed all short position only to conclude profit or lost. Time will present to you whether you are right or wrong. Not now as per what you claim as huge profits but just on paper gain!
investmalaysia777 Dividend is deductible from share price. What is it to laugh unless you bought below RM1 la. your paper loss will add another 15cents
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No lah. You get 15sen dividend, so it's neutral after the 15sen drop on the 9/9....the worry is, often it drops more than 15sen after dividend....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
niet
779 posts
Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:57 | Report Abuse
Love making profit from dividend