Thank you Calvin. TPP agreement is likely to be put online today or tomorrow for public scrutiny. This may also help KPScb from what you mentioned before. Everything is moving superbly per your calculation. Great job and a good person you are.
I just arrived back in Spore. What a nice surprise today to see Kulim, MyEg & Ajiya gained double digit today.
For KPSCB it has just won Rm19 millions from court litigation.
Since it is selling daily necessities like tissue and toilet rolls it should be recession proof. Also its double A photo copy paper should also do well as Sporeans are turning away paper products from Indonesia. And ply wood demand is strong due to many Govt Infrar related projects & Pengerang's RAPID.
I have chosen KPSCB in these turbulent times because
1) IT HAS A GOOD MARGIN OF SAFETY. HIGH NTA PLUS RECESSION PROOF PRODUCTS
2) INTEGRITY OF KPS THE TOP BOSS. ALL THAT I HAVE GATHERED SO FAR FROM EMPLOYEES AND MANAGERS ARE THAT KPS IS A TRUSTWORTHY BOSS.
3) BUT OVER ABOVE ALL I CHOSE KPSCB FOR ITS DEEP UNDERVALUATION - TO ME IT IS A BARGAIN LIKE KFIMA WHICH I BOUGHT AT 32 CENTS BEFORE MR. MARKET DISCOVERED IT. BY THEN WHEN KFIMA TURNED POPULAR IT IS NO LONGER CHEAP ANYMORE.
KPSCB ACTS JUST LIKE KFIMA YEARS AGO - ERRATIC EARNINGS. BUT BOTH HAVE HIGH NTA & RECESSION PROOF BUSINESSES.
If for short term price might fluctuate day to day. But for longer term it will unlock its true intrinsic value.
For me, I always buy with A Long Term Value in View.
It's like this for example.
Last week I spoke to Mr. Tan Pao - a very successful landlord in Iskandar with 200 properties.
He mentioned one guy who bought only 2 or 3 storey shophouses in Iskandar and convert them into "Best Nest" houses. After 5 to 8 years he has bought about 40 shophouses.
Of the 40 only 10 shophouses are producing substantial profits.
Now he wants to sell off his other 30 shops which might contain 300 to 500 Bird Nests each (He will keep those 10 which have a thousand or more Bird Nests.)
And for those shops which have 300 to 500 Bird Nests he only want to sell the Shops at current Bank Valuation (all Bird Nests are free with the shop).
This is the logic. Since the shops were bought 5 to 8 years ago at between Rm100K to Rm200K when Iskandar's Property prices were still cheap - all these shops have double or tripled in prices to Rm300K to Rm600K.
So even if he didn't make money from the Bird Nest Business for these 30 shops he is still making VERY GOOD MONEY from ITS PRICE SURGE.
This is How I View KPSCB. Its business might fluctuate BUT ITS ASSETS ARE VERY UNDERVALUE.
I THINK VERY FEW INVESTORS SEE FROM MY POINT OF VIEW.
In Investments there is
1) Actual profit from day to day business 2) Also Assets Appreciate by Inflation or Property Market Boom
So THINK OVERALL NET WORTH.
AND TO ME KPSCB IS WORTH NO LESS THAN RM1.00
ONLY TIME WILL UNLOCK ITS TRUE INTRINSIC OR RESIDUAL VALUE.
If I am KPS I will just offer 70 cents to Rm1.00 to take it private.
Then sell Off its Business & Assets and I think It will Be More Than Rm1.50.
KPSCB is involved with fast moving basic construction products like plywood and wood beams which need no skill for marketing. Also distribution of cement and basic steel products & tissue papers.
As such gross profit is reflected in its simplicity.
The easiest thing to sell is rice, flour, cooking oil, sugar, bread, soft drinks & eggs in a provision shop. No marketing skill is needed like selling expensive antics or high end high profit products.
The easiest car to sell was Perodua Kancil in year 2004 when it first came out. Since Kancil was a bread and butter car the commision for a salesman was only Rm350. A harder car to sell like Renault or Peugeot commands a commision of Rm7,000. So selling one Peugeot then equals to selling 20 Kancil cars. However, in bad times Renault & Peugeot Salesman will starve while those selling Kancil will survive.
Hence KPSCB will survive even after all others are hit in a crisis.
So I look at KPSCB defensive nature first before its profit criteria.
1) It has more years positive than negative. For the same reason Mr. Market will avoid KPSCB like they did with the erratic earnings of KFima. When everything is so clear cut KPSCB should trade like KFima, Cenbond, Weida, GUH or OKA in the same boat then.
This mispricing is therefore an opportunity.
2) Last Year and For The Last 5 Years KPSCB's Factories Have Appreciated in Value Because of the Housing Boom. Up 100% to 200% easily. This is not known to the market. VALUE IS OVERLOOKED.
I have been in Paper product business for 5 years, Car Business for 20 years and property investment for 10 years. I can only comment on what I know personally. It amazes me that So called "expert" share analysts who graduated straight from School or Uni are giving advise on Businesses (Behind Every Stock is an Actual Business Selling Goods or Providing Real Services.) when they have not even spend a single day doing real business all their lives.
Most people who make profit will keep silent when he selects or collects a stock at lower price, unlike you bear119, plus a non infamous syndicate --- Calvintaneng
hmmmm..... Thouse who followed Calvintaneng bought KULIM? Profit 50% but those unforunately followed Calvintaneng bought ARMADA/ALAM? Losses 50%
Let's see what will happen to KPSCB, a calvintaneng related syndicate stock
Any analysis need be fair and reflective of actual fundamental. Frankly, I don't see how this counter can grow to RM1 just based on the general comments/ analysis. My personal rating of the A)management 5.5 of 10 B) catalyst for growth 2/10. C) profit growth 2/10
This counter is in business with tight margins and highly competitive. If and unless they venture into a new product line to catapult they growth prospect..financial results will remain sluggish.
Calvin may claim glory by guessing on Ajiya and some other counters. I have ran around checking and discover the catalyst for Ajiya future growth. That actually would explain the real reason for its share spike. Wait for their news soon. It is not related to the glass business in Iskandar. In fact most if the glass supply in Iskandar went to a unlisted company ( also Johor based). That also explains the shrinking contribution from glass operation.
Ajiya strictly no guessing. My Johor Sifu recommended Ajiya 7 years ago. He bought at Rm1.20 after his Great SIFU Recommended it in his Monthly Digest - DR NEOH SOON KEAN (Dr Neoh has 600,000 Ajiya shares)
My Johor SIFU reinvested his dividends into more Ajiya shares - Total 400,000. He just sold all for a Rm1.5 Millions. My Johor SIFU & Dr NEOH Are Certainly NO SYNDICATE.
426m net cash, 5.9 acres land in kl imbi, 1700 acres land in pengerang, 83 acres land in penang island, flamingo hotel in kl and penang, 265 acres land in rawang, 324 acres land in gombak, 51% stake in mp insurance,100% stake in mp credit
total share issued 715 m market cap 1144 m
if revalued cash 425m 5.9 acres imbi land (5.9*43560*2800) 719 m 1700 acres pengerang (1700*43560*30) 2200 m 83 acres penang land (83*43560*150) 542 m 15 acres flamingo kl (15*43560*500) 326 m flamingo penang 100 m rawang+gombak land 300 m 51% stake in mp insurance 300 m mp credit 120 m total 5032 m, 715 m share, then rm7.03 per sahre, now closed at rm1.6
if price per sq ft in pengerang land rose to rm50, then another 1481 m, .... possible or not?
Hi Calvin, certainly your sifu make good money with long term investment but that is not my point.
I certainly don't make sweeping statement accusing you or anybody as syndicate. We are here to discuss and share my 2 cents worth of ideas/info.
My point is that if the stocks is highly recommended fundamentally, there must be a catalyst for growth or else the price hike would remain sluggish. The question is, is there one such item?
Back to Ajiya, the company would take long long time to grow without a new growth segment hence the slow moment of price. I have learned that the recent price hike could be due to one new products that could propel them to greater future growth.
It is just my 2 cents worth of opinion. Noting personal. Cheers
Your summary of MPHBCAP Looks interesting. I will visit Pengerang again soon to check up on MPHBCAP 1800 Acre Lands There. Will do an update later.
Bear119,
This November & December months will be great buying opportunities. Keep your bullets and space out your purchase on weakness.
Kucimiao,
I suggest that you dispose all bank shares and switch to defensive laggards like utilities, consumer necessities like toilet rolls and tissues(kpscb), and export stocks which are laggards.
Coward,
Have you taken my offer on GMutual. Do so quickly before I tell you my discovery about GMutual in recent MAPEX in Johor.
Remember losing a few battles alright if we finally win the war. Learn from past mistakes and improve for the future. I hope all make good money in the ultimate end.
GODinvest,
Your words too general to interpret. Anyway, welcome to KPSCB Forum.
Wish I was 8 years back when KFima was 32 cents, Cenbond 50 cents, GUH 45 cents, Weida 35 cents, OKA 35 cents, Pintaras Jaya Rm1.40, Ajiya at Rm1.20, KPS at 39 cents (KPSCB then was only 15 cents), SKPRES also only 15 cents, Muda at 32 cents & many others at bargain prices. However in those days there were naysayers and many were skeptical.
Keep KPSCB longer term and you will see another KFima in the making.
Hi Calvin, thanks for your suggestions. My portfolio are very diversified and very long term. I have PBB, QL, Press Metal, TNB, Maybank and CIMB which I kept since 2009.
Of course occasionally I added some stocks to that list IHH, Karex, Nhfatt and last year I added Ajiya.
For some fun and quick gains, I do participate in some counters to keep my adrenaline pumping... Haha.
Regarding your earlier comments for a friendly challenge between CIMB and KPSCB it does sounds interesting. For the fun of it why not. I will revisit KPSCB after 6 months. KPSCB may go up due to rotational play but it won't change my mind that KPSCB is not a long term counter.
No doubt kucimiao is the same gang, same group with Calvintan Eng. They talk to themselves, giving a flowery impression about the stocks they mention, to lure and to trap, most of the innocent YOU.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,622 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2015-11-05 11:09 | Report Abuse
TheEdgedaily News
KPSCB - Stock with Momentum
Calvin Tan Research gives an intrinsic Value of KPSCB at Rm1.00
NTA is Rm2.00 (If All Assets Are Revalued.
A Share Worth Keeping Till Value Emerge Some Day.
Last time Lafarge was 66 cents. Now a 15 bagger at over Rm9.00
Others are Notion at 30 cents, KFima at 32 cents, Muda also at 32 cents, Cenbond at 50 cents.
The Time to Buy is when there is mispricing in the market