Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2024-06-15 20:47 | Report Abuse

EngineeringProfit:
> PEG ratio about 0.7 ? Over the past decade, Formosa Prosonic Industries (FPI) has shown notable growth. Analyzing the available data, FPI's earnings per share (EPS) have increased significantly, highlighting a robust performance trend.

May I know how you calculated the PEG Ratio? I got 0.24, based on the following:

PEG Ratio = PE / 5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
= 5.73 / 24.3
= 0.24

Are you using a much lower growth rate? If so, may I know why?

> Overall, FPI has maintained a strong growth rate over the past decade, making it an attractive investment option within the materials sector.

I consider FPI as a hardware manufacturer. Not sure why you place it in the materials sector.

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2024-06-15 21:17 | Report Abuse

Hi all -- While the FPI's share price has improved considerably in recently months, I remain concerned about its not so impressive top line number. As a result, FPI's PS Ratio now stands at 1.1, well above its historical norm of around 0.7. Is this a course for concern?

I added more when the price dipped recently after the x date. But, the above concern keeps me from adding more, despite FPI trading at such depressed PE Ratio, improving operating margin, and impressive ROIC.

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-06-16 13:16 | Report Abuse

th use roe and nta to

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-06-16 13:16 | Report Abuse

price in rm4

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-16 14:00 | Report Abuse

I try not to over-analyze any one stock, because I have too many experiences over the past 3 decades, where I analyzed in great detail (like at least 100 times more detail), thinking I knew the most, but one day, the market threw me a curve that I could never have predicted, notwitstanding numerous detailed analysis everywhere.

In short, as retail investors, we will never ever know everything no matter how much we analyze, research, access to management and board, etc.

Because of these occasional bad past experiences, I have given up owning say 10 stocks or less - it is too few because if I lose 10% capital, it's a lot harder to make it back than losing just 2% or 3% capital.

So, my minimum number of holdings is at least 40 stocks. My experience is I only need to spend 2% of the time to analyze the big picture, and it explains 98% of the results over the long term. In short, I play the statistics. Every stock idea should be capable of being explained in 1 minute. If you can't explain the idea in 1 minutes, I pass.

So, what is FPI's one minute idea?
1. Long term chart - rising
2. Small cap with room to grow.
3. Past 10 years business growth is proven, whether RPS, EPS, DPS and/or NAPS growth - it has proven itself.
4. Speakers business is niche - FPI didn't grow like this over past 10 years if it wasn't doing something right - true next 10 years is unclear, nobody really knows, but the edge is better than 50/50.
5. Excellent financials and balance sheet today and in the past - that's good enough to earn my trust.

In short, it's good enough for me to own up to 2%-3% of capital on this stock. I have no intention to own 10% or 20% capital into this one stock - if you want to own this much, you need much greater assurance than I need, but I doubt the extra 10-100 times more analysis is going to beat the 1 minute statement above in the long run.

Just my 2 sen.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-16 14:02 | Report Abuse

I forgot to mention what I always look for before triggering which is good valuation, attractive entry price, buy during accumulation zone, can visualize higher earnings and DPS in 5, 10, 20 years time too.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-16 14:08 | Report Abuse

My reference is the typical institutional investors like unit trust fund managers, insurance companies, banks. All of them are highly diversified, owning anywhere from 50 to 500 different stocks. In theory, they are supposed to be the true experts on analysis of stocks, with the huge professional resources they have, access to management, etc - much more than I have. Yet, they don't invest in 5 or 10 stocks. It's good to ponder why. Because if you read their IB reports, they are always surprised after next quarter or next few quarters. Noone can eliminate surprise by analysis.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-16 14:13 | Report Abuse

Since I started investing in Bursa, my win rate is pretty good including paper gains/loss. 82% of my stocks investing/trading results in win, only 18% is a loss, and all 18 are paper losses so far which a majority I expect to be temporary.

I suspect my win rate is higher than many professional fund managers. Notwitstanding, I know enough to know that my analysis have limitations, that no matter how good an analysis I do, I will still be proven wrong from time to time.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-16 14:51 | Report Abuse

Interesting ... out of 54 open stock positions, 13 are losses, 41 winners and the $ winner far offset the losers. I have another 18 mostly trading stocks that I have closed and 18 / 18 are winners with no losers. Total winner 59 / 72 ~ 82%.

The small paper losses are mostly investing positions which include AMFIRST, BAT (trading), CARLSBG, CHINWEL, HEIM, HEKTAR, MAGNUM (trading), MAXIS, PBBANK, RAPID (trading), these 10 are extremely small % loss - I am very confident, with time, they will turn profitable, mostly by doing nothing, but some may require trading (e.g. BAT - cannot keep for too long). The 3 bigger % loss are ARREIT, ASTRO and BESHOM, all 3 are hopeless - don't enter them (I'm not), don't average down (I'm not) - my plan is to just leave them there to die a natural death as they are small. These 3 has VERY successfully reminded me for a long time - a constant reminder - not to buy a stock that is going down - that reminder has successfully enabled my portfolio to keep making new all time highs as a result.

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-06-16 20:39 | Report Abuse

u total capital is how much @dividend guy

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-06-16 20:39 | Report Abuse

good fa

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2024-06-17 10:04 | Report Abuse

DividendGuy67:
> My minimum number of holdings is at least 40 stocks. My experience is I only need to spend 2% of the time to analyze the big picture, and it explains 98% of the results over the long term. In short, I play the statistics.

I find owning too many stocks tiresome. In my younger days, I was a lot more gung-ho and held numerous positions. However, over the years, I have come to realize that I prefer owning stocks for the long term—at least 5 years—and favour those that are more predictable.

I aim to own around 20 stocks at a time, though there is often some overlap as I trim and gradually exit richly valued stocks while buying those I perceive to be undervalued. Generally, I try not to allocate more than 10% to any one particular stock.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-17 15:59 | Report Abuse

@Thirai, it's gung ho indeed if you can't cope, but if you can, do note institutional investors prefer to own much more than 50-100 stocks, due to their fund mandate and benchmarks.

Here's 3 examples:

1. PB Dividend Builder Equity Fund. Benchmark = 90% FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100 (FBM100) & 10% 3 month KLIBOR. Their benchmark is 100 stocks. Their overseas exposures are USA (10.0%), Taiwan (4.2%), China (2.1%), Korea (1.5%) across many different sectors i.e. their portfolio contains 3 digit stocks.
2. PB Growth Fund. Benchmark = KLCI = 30 stocks; They have exposures in US (7.0%), China (6.0%), Taiwan (1.9%), UK (1.2%) i.e. 3 digit stocks.
3. PB Islamic Equity Fund. Benchmark = FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index comprising of 220 stocks. They also invests 8.1% in the US, 4.7% in China, 3.1% Netherlands.
etc.

More important is to avoid large losses, which ever the style.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-06-17 16:01 | Report Abuse

@jeffrey, I explained how many stocks here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-11-story-h-159701327-Portfolio_All_Time_High_Profit_Watermark_June_Update

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-06-17 16:03 | Report Abuse

tq guys 67

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2024-06-17 17:07 | Report Abuse

DividendGuy67:
> It's gung ho indeed if you can't cope, but if you can, do note institutional investors prefer to own much more than 50-100 stocks, due to their fund mandate and benchmarks.

Good for them. I fear I do not have that level of capability or bandwidth, let alone inclination.

Posted by zzprozaz > 2024-07-10 08:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-07-10 21:19 | Report Abuse

keep buying

Posted by geary > 2024-08-02 22:36 | Report Abuse

FPI Monthly Pivot Points Momentum!
S2: 2.72.(My Cost of Capital Employed)
S1: 2.82.
PIVOT: 2.99.
R1: 3.16.
Dis: Buy/Hold at your own Risk.
DY/BY...stock...Not much trading volume!🤞🤓

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2024-08-04 13:59 | Report Abuse

can fly

Posted by Dakewlest > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Anyone buying at this price?

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

i keep buying

Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

cheap

Posted by ryoyagod > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Buying for dividend 😋

Posted by curiousq > 20 hours ago | Report Abuse

The Group recorded lower sales of RM200.6 million, a drop of 14.4% from the previous year’s corresponding quarter of RM234.5 million mainly due to lower sales volume. Consequently and coupled with loss on foreign exchange, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) decreased 137.5% to a loss of RM22.6 million for the current quarter compared to a profit RM60.3 million in the previous year’s corresponding quarter.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

Better starts shift to other stocks that will skyrocket later such as vstecs , ranhill , swift haulage ! FPI share price will further drop atleast 40% in 2025 !

Posted by cwc1981 > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

Dividend maybe around 10 cents

Posted by cwc1981 > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

Unless take from cash reserve

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

Eat old rice !

Posted by icst1975 > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

At end June 24 , 1 USD = MYR4.71; at end Sept 24, 1 USD = MYR 4.12. Against Malaysian MYR, USD had depreciated by 12.5% from end June to end Sept 2024.
FPI is very cash rich with a CASH balance of about MYR180 mln as at end of June 2024. If the said CASH had all been deposited in USD instrument in Q2 2024, there would be a foreign currency exchange loss of about RM22.5 million due to Malaysian ringgit appreciation against USD over quater 3, 2024.
Suggestion: FPI should return the excessive cash it has to shareholders.

Posted by yongyong88 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Next year dividend looks likely to be much lower than the price depreciation now. If price continues to drop, shareholders may suffer higher loss even if it can still give 23 sen dividend. Better wait n watch.