last Qr revenue drops bcos cannot sell new Model (1 month) due pricing problem. This coming Qr results should be very good compare to last Qr (QoQ). Maybe matching 700mil
If the oil price stays low, it will function a one-off tax cut for importing countries. It shall benefit oil importers like India. India Reserve Bank can cut rates with less worry about inflation.
But low oil price is a double-edged sword for Malaysia. Although the government saves from reduced petrol subsidy, its oil revenue from tax and Petronas dividend declines faster. Lower USD revenue from oil export will weaken MYR. The weak MYR, if persistent, can cause higher inflation due to rising import costs. It also constraints BNM's ability to cut OPR further to stimulate the local economy.
The more expensive Yen is not good for BAuto. However given the stock price has dropped so much, may be the worst-case have already been priced in? The historical dividend yield is 14%. Even if the dividend is cut by half in the coming 12 months, forward DY is still 7%. Can we assume that as long as the economy doesn't get into a recession, BAuto will be able to stay profitable and continue distributing dividends?
Yes, deflation is not only bad but much worse than inflation in my view. While inflation might be bad for consumers, businesses can usually pass on the rising cost to customers. With deflation the economy might just get sucked into a downward spiral, where consumers don't spend --> business contracts --> workers retrenched --> consumers have no income to spend ...
But I don't think deflation is a worry for Malaysia. Although the official inflation rate has been low for several quarters, I don't think it will turn into deflation. Afterall we keep hearing people complaining about the rising cost of living.
BAuto doesn't delay its financial results announcement. Its quarter ends on Jan31. That's why it releases in March instead of Feb. Anyway the result is weak, and this is the quarter after its pricing issue has been resolved, but before being hit by Covid-19. Expect worse results in Jun.
If they can maintain their dividend payout this counter shall be fine... like the joker upstairs mentioned before... with data... then only you know whether is dividend trap or not... am i right? Joker catch the bear...lol....
Having said that, I myself cannot avoid such psychology. What I do is to compile a total paper profit/ loss on each stock based on current price. Looking at number, I will know average down does not reduce any paper loss.
Even before the outbreak, it is estimated that 40% of the SME businesses just managed to get by. With the MCO and eventual slowdown, at least half of this businesses is expected to close down and a million employees will be jobless. The effect on Malaysia economy will be widespread coupled with low tourism income and extreme low oil price. Ringgit is expected to be further weaken to 1 USD - 5 MYR.
Import of CKD parts & CBU will be more expensive, low buying power from consumer and prolong pandemic, BAUTO will sink further.
only bangla and Indo impacted. General Manager still draw same salary. Rich Towkay is in same financial position. Maybe Change Mercedes / 700series BMW to Madza
If there is a Rally next week, i think Bau can gain 25cents next week bcos the liquidity is drying-up. Everyday EPF and KWSP are buying up to 2mil shares while the total Volume done for the day is only 4mil
Mazda model sales Oct'19 to Dec'19 - 2705 units (1.7% of national sales) Mazda model sales Jan'20 to Feb'20 - 2202 units (2.7% of national sales)
No figures yet on March'20 sales. I would expect it to be impacted from the MCO as well as April's. However, one can see that Bermaz managed to increase their sales quantum by 1% due to introduction of new models and local funds are buying up this share. Please make your own due diligence on this counter.
Breathing space for some. Despite the “restricted operations” accorded to some sectors, the impact of the MCO still remains widespread. Within our coverage, sectors that are allowed to resume operations under strict guidelines include:
Aerospace: DRB via CTRM and UMW via UMW Aerospace. Automotive: Limited to exports of CBU (Mazda; BAuto) and equipment and components (Pecca). Machines & equipment: This seems rather broad but could likely encompass tech related companies (names like UWC and Vitrox have been operating at sub optimal levels since MCO day-1) and EMS (understand that VSI will soon recommence limited operations). Construction: Listed contactors do not fall under the G1-G2 category (paid up capital <RM25k) which has been allowed to operate. Buildings with IBS score of >70 can recommence works; positive for IBS players like Kimlun. Jobs that are >90% complete can also proceed, offering a mild reprieve to contractor’s orderbook execution. Services related to science, professional and technical: O&G is one of the 4 areas that falls under this category but no further details provided. Shops involved in hardware, E&E and optical: Think FocusP. Others: Social health services, barber shops and full-service laundry.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Vess88
104 posts
Posted by Vess88 > 2020-03-06 21:08 | Report Abuse
Some still stubborn saying not dividend trap? Look at the period of downtrend and dividend yield... Still need data to back?