the current EPS should be 16+, however this value only reflects EPS for two quarters. Assuming production of the factory resumes after the 5-years turnaround (which caused low production rate few months ago), the normal EPS will be at least 15 for each quarter, which means EPS for whole year will be 60.
The cumulative EPS after 3 qtr is 36 cents. The last qtr result should see its full financial yr EPS at abt 46 cents (If I take the last qtr results to be similar to its 3rd qtr)
Their IPO prospectus stated their dividend policy is 50% of its profits ie. abt 23 cts per shares.
Most, if not all, retail players who applied during IPO hve sold it back to Lotte at $6.50.
It is my thinking that those institutional funds who were allotted a big chunk of shares fr IPO also sold all the way down to $4.30 n bought it back. They now hold shares at the lowest range of the price.
The whole IPO debacle is rightly blamed on its principal adviser, Maybank. Lotte achieved super-normal profits in 2016 n used its financial results to come to IPO price at 8.00. But, once normalization comes, Lotte would certainly be unable to repeat the feat.
Maybank should have known abt this but still went on with IPO at $8.00. It means that post IPO, Lotte's price will trend down. By doing so, Maybank spoilted the entire picnic for investors.
Well, that is history. Now, Lotte is likely to achieve normal financial results. If u are looking for super-normal results, u are likely to be disappointed.
If everything goes on smooth, the more optimistic EPS for the whole yr would likely be 50 cents.
U must have bullets to hold this counter. If yr strategy is to make some hundred bucks n run, it probably won't work.
After its results for 3 qtrs, its eps is 36 cents. It has one more qtr to go. It has the honour of being the cheapest petro chemical stock in Asia.
Last week, I met a friend working in an investment bank. I ask her if her investment bank was caught in this Lotte IPO, She said "yes, a bit". "A bit" means a lot for the retail investor.
It is the institutional funds which prop up many of falling counters e.g. Maxis, Digi (no growth story), IHH (huge forex losses).
And the problem in KLSE is the small retail investor participation in contrast to the active institutional participation. Once the institutional funds do not buy, the shares would drop.
9-month net profit is already RM686 million. Final qtr shld be able to match 3rd qtr profit or better. Hence, RM900 milion net profit for the yr within range. Hence,their declared 50% div payout should come to abt RM450 million. At current prices or if it drfit even lower, it quite attractive. It should now be a buying opportunity and ride on the fundamentals.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
mamatede
3,950 posts
Posted by mamatede > 2017-11-29 11:43 | Report Abuse
@9312668 please pump in billions help support price. Sien. to those Koreans Management , stop dumping eh.