Posted by gomyinv > 2021-10-06 16:27 | Report Abuse

i sold all too. just prefer to sell before EPF announce that they are selling today. This high volume may be EPF is selling also

Posted by stevenckheng > 2021-10-06 16:43 | Report Abuse

tp first, europe and US very red now

Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-10-06 17:26 | Report Abuse

Today volume damn fierce...

6 times higher than 26/08/21 when the shot up @ 4.24...

10% transacted on the balance of market flow...

Be more conservative rather than aggressive...

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-10-06 17:59 | Report Abuse

Plantation stock in play....!

Posted by James Ng > 2021-10-06 19:37 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2021-10-06-story-h1591933781.jsp
[转贴] [Video:浅谈SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, SIMEPLT, 5285] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by jonathan_k > 2021-10-06 21:48 | Report Abuse

Momentum continue into tmr. Rm5 coming soon?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-07 07:05 | Report Abuse

Just to share some historical data of past 10 years .
Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)

Thplant. $2.45
Sop. $6.62
MHC. $1.46
Cepat. $1.18
Swkplt. $3.24
Taann. $4.50
Hsplant. $3.18
Bplant. $1.34
Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.

CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012
CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday.
Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012.
After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012.
On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence!
I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .

Posted by jonathan_k > 2021-10-08 09:20 | Report Abuse

FCPO AT 5000. Good good for plantation

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-08 12:54 | Report Abuse

I am pleased to share the projected full year (2021) EPS and the prospective PE of some of my favorite plantation counters. The Projected EPS is based on actual 1H + Q3+Q4. Q3 EPS can be estimated fairly accurately as Q3 avg CPO prices is known and production numbers are mostly available . I also make the assumption that Q4 EPS is same level as Q3 for reasons that ASP Q4 seem to be even higher and labourers for plantantion sector are coming in to maximize crop recovery. Given that Nov/Dec is usually seasonally lower crops, but the higher ASP and labour availability should be enough to offset that,
On above basis , the FY 2021 EPS and prospective PE based on yesterday closing share price as as follows:

Bplant. EPS 9.6sen , PE 7.1x
THplant. EPS 16.5sen , PE 4.4x
SOP. EPS 73.0sen. PE 5.3x
MHC. EPS 20.9sen. PE 4.5x
Cepat. EPS 13,9sen. PE 5.2x
Swkplt. EPS 48sen. PE 5.2x
Taaan. EPS 67.9sen PE 4.6x
Hsplant. EPS 23.6sen. PE 9.3X.

Historical PE for plantation counter is 15 to 25x
As such, plantation counters are seriously underappreciated by the market , especially amid poor KLSE sentiment.

Can 2021's earning be sustained in 2022?
You will be surprised!
Hope this perspective helpful for your investment decision.

Posted by Law7857 > 2021-10-08 18:25 | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/derivatives_prices?code=FCPO

FCPO increased by +100 when derivative market closed at 6.05pm
Monday up

Posted by Law7857 > 2021-10-08 18:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MYX-FCPO1%21/
Look at FCPO price after our BURSA closed at 5.00pm, choose the daily graph and see how FCPO price skyrocket

Posted by Hew Kiong Peng George > 2021-10-13 17:07 | Report Abuse

Simeplt cx my lovely stocks

Posted by Law7857 > 2021-10-13 17:36 | Report Abuse

Buying simeplt cx is a ballsy move but I think capital earning from this stock is enough for me already

Posted by Hew Kiong Peng George > 2021-10-13 20:12 | Report Abuse

ya.my cost 1sen sell 5sen today.haha

Posted by stevenckheng > 2021-10-18 16:02 | Report Abuse

lol what is wrong with MACQUARIE GROUP?

Posted by Law7857 > 2021-10-18 17:34 | Report Abuse

MACQUARIE issue warrants simeplt CY, by 18/3/2022 if the price of simeplt is above RM 4.38, it will have to pay to its warrant buyers. Thus, it is my assumption that they will use ESG report as excuses to put a pressure on the price. However, I would advice you to take a look at Kenanga ESG report on simeplt at
https://www.kenanga.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ESG-210519-TR-Kenanga.pdf
where I quote
"On a corporate level, SIMEPLT and IOICORP both have a No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) policy"

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 05:56 | Report Abuse

Amid lucrative earnings , funds are pouring back to oil & gas sector . ESG issue is put at back burners temporarily.
Will foreign funds and local funds (EPF and KWAP particularly) stop selling down or even snap up plantation counters amid historic earning ?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 06:45 | Report Abuse

Macquarie wrote negatively about plantation stocks for its own selfish agenda. Everything in the report doesn’t hold water

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 14:23 | Report Abuse

The small cap and 2nd liners plantation counters are making good progress in their share price increase, But the big cap or counters where Sovereign funds holding significant stakes are having poor showing ! The sector overall lackluster performance (share price wise ) is predominantly due to the dampening effect of the fund continuous sell down despite robust earnings in this sector.

Counters where sovereign funds are not shareholders:
Bplant, THplant, MHC, cepat, etc

Counters with low shareholding from Sovereign funds:
Taann
HSplant
Sop
Swkpltn
For Taann and SOP, I think the funds shall complete the disposal by oct/Nov. Good chance for these counters to perform soon.

Counters where Sovereign funds hold substantially:
Simepltn.
IOI
Genp
Klk

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 14:27 | Report Abuse

Sovereign funds I referred to are EPF , KWAP etc

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 19:17 | Report Abuse

Today’s performance:
CPO + 2.5% $5303 (nov)

Counters without EPF and KWAP :
THplant +14.5%
Bplant. +4.9%
Mhc. +3.8%
Cepat. +1.3%

Big cap /counters with EPF/KWAP as shareholders:
Simepltn - 1.4%
IOI. - 0.74%
Genp. - 1.83%
Klk. +0.35%
Taann. - 2.74%
Swkpltn. Unchanged
SOP. +. 0.77%

I believe EPF and /or KWAP are still selling down today . Only local retailers and some corporates are absorbing the selling and that’s not enough to move price to reflect the robust fundamental of CPO .

Posted by Mabel > 2021-10-21 18:59 | Report Abuse

Brent crude oil was trading at US$86 (about RM357.59) per barrel, while crude palm oil closed at an all-time high on Wednesday with the benchmark palm oil contract for January 2022 rising by RM127 to RM5,071 a tonne.

Posted by loneranger > 2021-10-23 13:58 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, do you know why the local sovereign funds keep disposing or selling down their shares?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-25 19:16 | Report Abuse

@loneranger, EPF needed to raise cash to bridge the huge deficit /gap between withdrawal and contribution for current year . kWAP may be in similar position.. I suspect that's the main reason. Also, some of these selling may be done by the outsourced fund managers for their reason .

Posted by loneranger > 2021-10-27 11:50 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, thanks. I think the share price will only increase when these local sovereign funds reinvest in plantation counter.

Posted by stockfreak > 2021-10-29 19:16 | Report Abuse

Now we know why institutions have been selling. They seem to know the increase of windfall tax before being announced.

Posted by loneranger > 2021-10-30 10:01 | Report Abuse

@stockfreak, I couldn't agree more...

Posted by loneranger > 2021-10-30 10:02 | Report Abuse

Small investors are the last who know...too late...haiz

Posted by loneranger > 2021-10-30 10:05 | Report Abuse

The current announced budget no doubt affects many profitable blue chips. Disappointed.

Posted by tallman > 2021-10-30 11:09 | Report Abuse

For plantation sector, which tax have to follow, windfall tax or cukai makmur? Or double tax?

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2021-10-30 11:15 | Report Abuse

both.... applies. but price of levy increased by rm500/- for both peninsula and Sabah/sawarak

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2021-10-30 11:16 | Report Abuse

Small / mid plantations will be okay. Cukai makmur would not apply.

Posted by Regalia > 2021-11-01 06:49 | Report Abuse

gg. all played by insiders.

Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-11-01 08:20 | Report Abuse

At the moment...outlook NO so great...

Since big planters need to face 2 different "special levy" + ESG gradually implemented globally...


## https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/908216264.jsp

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 08:39 | Report Abuse

https://newswav.com/A2111_Nla08j?s=A_lfPUYck
$101 bil disbursed under the special covid withdrawal by members . That's why EPF has to cash out from even very profitable counters. For 2022 , the special pendemic withdrawal is over ( also most members now left with nothing to withdraw). EPF doesn't have to dampen the market anymore .

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 08:43 | Report Abuse

The windfall tax change ( threshold price increase by $500) is beneficial for plantantion in WM. It is slightly negative for plantation in EM due to.tyevrate increase from 1.5 to 3%. However, the effect of rate increase is mitigated by the threshold price increase. In the overall, minimum impact to plantation bottomline.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 08:48 | Report Abuse

All the small and medium size plantantion are not affected by cukai Makmur. It has minimum impact even on the big guys like because the businesses are traditional splits into many subsidiary companies and seldom a subsidiary company of the plantantion group make more than $100 mil PBT . Tax is at subsidiary companies level .

Posted by stockfreak > 2021-11-01 09:32 | Report Abuse

Retail investors react positively towards this new tax structure, surprisingly. Institutions and foreigners were selling and they cannot react as they have no or minimum shares. Plantation companies will help Malaysia to recover by contributing more taxes. Owners, directors and shareholders are the biggest losers.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 10:00 | Report Abuse

Owners and shareholders are reaping huge profit , some at historical high , for this years. As you make so muchore money , the taxable amount is higher . I think that's fair .
Many still don't see that the 2 tiered cukai Makmur will not affect most plantantion group for reason already explained above.

Posted by stockfreak > 2021-11-01 10:07 | Report Abuse

Which plantation company kena prosperity burger?

No plantation company?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 10:20 | Report Abuse

Stockfreak,. In Taann's forum you already said 25% of Taann's profit will 'kena' cukai Makmur . You are unsure now ??

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 10:44 | Report Abuse

That's not my intention. No apology is needed. I just thought I can learn something that I am ignorant about .

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-01 13:49 | Report Abuse

National Budget Office director Datuk Johan Mahmood Merican said the government is committed to ensuring that the utilisation of Cukai Makmur was transparently disclosed given that it is intended as a one-off tax to help support some of the increased requirements of COVID-19 health crisis.

"Our tax system is actually based on the company level. We do not look at the groups of companies as they will be taxed at an individual company level. In terms of utilisation, by law, all taxes go into a consolidated fund," he said on the BFM Radio’s Breakfast Grille programme today.

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2021-11-01 14:04 | Report Abuse

On a MACRO scale, what the Gvon did to increse the taxes for 2022 is a "brilliant" move ( Just my 2 cents) .It strengthen the Ringgit and Allows Malaysian Exports to Maintain it Exchange "Profits". And reduce/maintain IMPORT cost as the Ringgit remains strong for many of manufacturing co here. Of course , those co paying extra taxes MAY benefit from a STRONG Ringgit. So...... Negative (Extra Taxes ) and Positive( Import cost ). Remember Indonesia with the Taxes collected from Commodities ( CPO, Coal, Minerals, etc )... Rupia expected to remain STRONG.

Posted by tallman > 2021-11-01 16:38 | Report Abuse

Every time they proclaim use these funds, use that funds in transparent, finally...... you know I know no need to mention

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-02 09:15 | Report Abuse

Yesterday's statistics

FBMKLCI: 1,530.92 (-31.39)
Bursa Trade Statistics:
Local Institutions (45.5%): -RM329.3m
Local Retail (31.3%): +RM314.3m
Foreign (23.2%): +RM15.0m

From the trades , Foreigners are not worried by the cukai Makmur, local institutions are! Mind boggling!

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-02 09:56 | Report Abuse

IBs and many pessimist are relentlessly worried that CPO price will fall since the day CPO reached $3,000/- in 2020. CPO reached $5,350 now! Should investors be too concerned if CPO price correct down from today's level ?
I would like to share the year's high (H) , low (L) and the simple average (Avg) from year 2008 to 2021as below :
2008. $4179 (H) , $1403 (L) , $2791 (Avg)
2009. 2887,. 1630. 2259
2010. 3782. 2386. 3084
2011. 3930. 2786. 3358
2012. 3567. 2027. 2797
2013. 2635. 2157. 2396
2014. 2917. 1933. 2425
2015. 2360. 1802. 2081

2016. 3243. 2181. 2712
2017. 3344. 2338. 2841
2018. 2555. 1718. 2137
2019. 3025. 1834. 2430
2020. 3835. 2021 2928
----------------------------------------------------
Avg. 3251. 2017. 2634
----------------------------------------------------
2021YTD 5395. 3471. 4434

2021's H is 29% higher than the highest H (2008)
2021's H is 66% higher than the avg H 2008-2019
2021's L. Is 147% higher than the lowest L (2008)
2021's L is 72% higher than the avg L 2008-2019
2021's Avg is 68% higher than the Avg 2008-2019.

Despite the above , all plantantion counters stock prices are 20-50% below the highs achieved in 2008 -2020 period . Mind boggling indeed.

So, why should there be worries if CPO price indeed correct for 10-20% next year ??
02/11/2021 9:54 AM

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-05 18:18 | Report Abuse

PALM OIL VERSUS OTHER CROPS
Land required to produce 1 ton of oil

Sunflower
1.43 ha
Rapeseed
1.25 ha
Soybean
2 ha
Palm oil
0.25 ha
10 times more land than palm oil per 1 ton of oil
Source: UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Even environmentalists admit that boycotting palm oil may be even worse for the planet. That’s because palm oil is up to 10 times more productive than rapeseed, soybean or sunflower oils. Oil palms cover only about 7% of the world’s arable land but produce 40% of its vegetable oil. Replacing palm oil with an alternative would require the cultivation of a lot more land.

Posted by greenland > 2021-11-05 19:45 | Report Abuse

Johnzhang your analysis is by FAR the most unbiased and factual. Be it prices up or down, it does bot matter. A fact is a fact. Thank you for the great insight

Posted by Intrinsic99 > 2021-11-06 14:12 | Report Abuse

CPO prices expected to be lower in 2022, say market analysts (The Star - Saturday, 16 Oct 2021)

UOB Kay Hian Research maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector

The research unit is keeping its CPO price forecast for 2021 and 2022 at RM3,300 and RM2,800 per tonne respectively

CPO prices may sustain at the current levels due to the continued disappointing palm oil production as yield recovery from the previous drought is taking longer than expected

It also notes that risks include rising fertiliser costs due to supply constraints. As fertiliser cost (30% of ex-mill cost) is one of the biggest components besides labour cost, the surge in fertiliser prices could lead to a cost increase of at least 15% to 20%


RHB Research also maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector

It advises investors to ride the wave and look for opportunities to sell into strength, with CPO prices currently at a peak, and some strength being seen in share prices.

“The main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalitie. Share prices have, for the first time this year, started moving in tandem with CPO prices. We believe now is the time to ride the wave, and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits, adding that environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns will still impact sector valuations”


https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/10/16/cpo-prices-expected-to-be-lower-in-2022-say-market-analysts