Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-15 16:48 | Report Abuse

I leave in a few weeks. Still can post on i3. Compliance said okay since I don't cover Malaysian equities.

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-15 16:53 | Report Abuse

take profits first. we come back again at the end of the quarter.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-16 07:10 | Report Abuse

JP Morgan 'overweight' on plantations, sees 2-year upcycle
TheEdge Tue, Feb 15, 2022
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 15): ASEAN plantation stocks may be back in vogue, says JP Morgan, noting that foreign investors who are less tied up with sustainability metrics are unable to ignore the strong crude palm oil (CPO) price rally.

The bank upgraded its call on the ASEAN plantation sector to “overweight” and also upgraded its CPO price assumption on Tuesday (Feb 15), citing supply concerns amid years of reduction in new planting.

In a note, JP Morgan Malaysia equities research head Jeffrey Ng said rotation into inflation proxies (commodities) might persist amid “rising interest from non-ESG-bound foreign funds” and low domestic institutional holdings, coupled by prospects of US rate hikes.

This is on the back of consistent cuts in Indonesia’s new planting since 2012, as well as Malaysia’s replanting efforts, which could mean that near-term supply growth will decelerate.

“As we think the CPO upcycle might last over two years due to the reasons mentioned above, we think planters’ valuations have hit an inflection point,” Ng said.

“The sustainability of this rotation hinges on market perception of the CPO price outlook,” he added.

CPO prices settled at a fresh record of RM5,657 per tonne on Tuesday, having scaled new highs this week on expectations of improved demand following India’s import tax cut. The commodity has risen by over 20% this year.

Ng forecasts CPO price to be at around RM5,000 in 2022 and 2023. The assumption is below spot, taking into consideration revenue taxes.

Ng upgraded to “overweight” calls for Sime Darby Plantation Bhd (target price: RM6.80), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (TP: RM30), and Genting Plantations Bhd (TP: RM12). He also raised IOI Corp Bhd to “neutral” (TP: RM4).

For valuation, the analyst switched to sum-of-parts of lands and downstream assets, from price-to-earnings ratio (PER), citing “the disconnect between share prices and the CPO price”.

“Planters are trading at single-digit PER, free cash flow yields are rising, the average dividend yield is circa 4%, and 2022 might see circa 35% profit growth,” said Ng.

“A rising tide may lift all boats, but we advise investors to pick planters that have well-defined ESG frameworks to avoid negative publicity risk,” he added.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-16 07:12 | Report Abuse

JP Morgan gives Simeplant TP $6.80!
They says exactly what we have been saying.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-16 07:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by jonathan_k > 2022-02-16 14:28 | Report Abuse

TP 6 insight soon. Result coming out 18

Posted by jonathan_k > 2022-02-17 09:13 | Report Abuse

Look at BKAWAN , KLK fantastic QR

Posted by troy88 > 2022-02-17 11:14 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds are gobbling up our plantation stocks. Simeplt is surely one of them

Posted by jonathan_k > 2022-02-17 16:21 | Report Abuse

Let’s go sime plantation

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-17 16:26 | Report Abuse

Simeplt versus Taann versus Sop

1st target price is Rm6.00

See which one gets there first

Let's go!!!

Posted by apple168 > 2022-02-17 19:44 | Report Abuse

Be aware that when the US federal reserve raises the interest rate, crude oil/ steel/ palm oil price will crash huge!

Posted by greenland > 2022-02-17 19:54 | Report Abuse

Apple168, whats the reason?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-17 20:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-17 21:12 | Report Abuse

I think the real economy producing the necessity goods and services will NOT be affected by Fed rate increase. Companies will still do well from economic normalization.
The rate increase will affect the financial and capital market that are lofty and speculative in nature eg crypto, overvalued stock , carry trades etc.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-17 21:18 | Report Abuse

I think Crude oil and steel market will NOT be affected by 1-2% Fed rate increase too.

Posted by greenland > 2022-02-18 07:37 | Report Abuse

If I remember correctly, after the market peaked in 2008, then came the crash and with the monies the funds went into commodity in 2010/2011 pushing up the commodities till 2013. That was when we had our last Palm oil and rubber record prices

Posted by Abba84 > 2022-02-18 07:51 | Report Abuse

Cnbc today wrote :
Consumer staples — known as defensive stocks that tend to be stable regardless of how the overall market performs — was the top performing sector.
I believe palm oil itself n their derivatives would be able to withstand current Russia vs Ukraine turmoil s.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-18 07:57 | Report Abuse

Russia and Ukraine are big commodities producers including Agriculture. If war indeed erupt , palm oil price will surge further.

Posted by greenland > 2022-02-18 08:02 | Report Abuse

This year India will hv general election. Modi needs to make people happy. Already reduced import duty for palm oil.. but prices still hot.
Eid celebrations traditionally highest demabd period for palm oil, you can refer to the data in MPOC website.
This year Eid will be in Early May.. so demand should surge soon. MPOC data also reported lower end stocks ..
There is an impending shortage soon.

Posted by greenland > 2022-02-18 08:04 | Report Abuse

Ukraine one of largest seed oil supplier.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-02-18 13:27 | Report Abuse

Bad result.
Lucky I sold all.
Will decide to buy back when the price drop below RM4.00.

Posted by jonathan_k > 2022-02-18 13:40 | Report Abuse

Why they paying such high tax?519m

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-18 13:40 | Report Abuse

Lol

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-18 13:43 | Report Abuse

No one likes Sime Plantation

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-18 13:47 | Report Abuse

Anyways don't worry. This won't affect the share price a lot. Margins still look pretty good.

Posted by Learner One > 2022-02-18 13:57 | Report Abuse

Deduct profit to solved labour issue i think.

Posted by greenland > 2022-02-18 14:07 | Report Abuse

RM519 mio is with the withholding tax of inward remittance from dividends of overseas subsi.
This is an expected one off expense. So, it is not something extraordinary

Posted by stockfreak > 2022-02-18 14:11 | Report Abuse

Suddenly nobody mentions about this company's forced labour problem by US a few weeks ago.

Posted by ahbah > 2022-02-18 14:11 | Report Abuse

" Posted by i3gambler > Feb 18, 2022 1:27 PM | Report Abuse

Bad result.
Lucky I sold all.
Will decide to buy back when the price drop below RM4.00. "

When U sold all ?

Posted by donnybelowski > 2022-02-18 14:23 | Report Abuse

ESG BS

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-02-18 14:23 | Report Abuse

ahbah

I sold in batches when it was climbing up, overall average was 4.20.

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-18 14:25 | Report Abuse

Sime Darby Plantation missed earnings by around 10%

Net Income
Consensus: 523,000
Actual: 468,000

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-02-18 15:09 | Report Abuse

SOLD forward! Simeplt full year 2021 Msia ASP 3693 is below 1Q2021 average price of 3877 and 2021 ave of 4384.

Its a GLC! no need say more

Posted by jonathan_k > 2022-02-18 15:43 | Report Abuse

Forward sales Normal. Can’t be expecting to sell it as it is.

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-02-18 15:53 | Report Abuse

Paid money for CON-sultan (who is palm oil trader) that talks CPO price down

Posted by James Ng > 2022-02-18 21:46 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2022-02-18-story-h1599173061.jsp
[转贴] [Video:浅谈SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, SIMEPLT, 5285] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-02-18 21:57 | Report Abuse

good luck trying to crash an essential crop company. with the power of the moon, i punish u. BAAHAHAHA.
commodities play weh.jom...(but yeah simeplant isnt even the best metrics wise. many better options in terms of metrics EOR, FFB yield etc :P)

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-19 09:40 | Report Abuse

QR not bad at all!. Consistently generous in dividend payout .
FY 2022 earnings going to be substantially higher yoy as the low price forward sales contracts are marked to market in FY 2021.
As stock price is forward looking, I think Simeplant’s share price will continue powering ahead .

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-19 11:09 | Report Abuse

Based on information from latest QR, Simeplant group produce 9,129 mt FFB in FY2021 or 1,970,951 mt CPO based on OER of 21.59%. The average realised selling price was $3,711 with Malaysia on the very low side due to forward sales (M'sia $3,504, Indo $3,388, PNG $4,510)

Assuming same level of production for FY2022 (ie 1,970,951 mt CPO) and average realisable selling price increased by $1,000 to $4,711 (notwithstanding that spot CPO price now is $6,000),
the EXTRA gross profit for 2022 shall be (1,970,951 x $1,000) = $1.971 billion before considering higher cost of production and taxes.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-19 21:07 | Report Abuse

How Russia -Ukraine conflict affect global market:
Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and further fuel food inflation at a time when affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Four major exporters - Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania - ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions.

Ukraine is projected to be the world's third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter.

Posted by greenland > 2022-02-20 19:54 | Report Abuse

JTiasa PE below 10
https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2022-02-19-story-h1599176719-SOME_NOTEWORTHY_NOTES_ON_JAYA_TIASA_4383_FFB_HARVEST_INCREASED_QoQ_CPO_.jsp

Posted by Mabel > 2022-02-20 21:38 | Report Abuse

Full year 2021 results for Sime Plantation

EPS: RM0.33 (up from RM0.20 in FY 2020).
Revenue: RM18.7b (up 43% from FY 2020).
Net income: RM2.26b (up 68% from FY 2020).
Profit margin: 12% (up from 10% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue.

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-21 08:51 | Report Abuse

Happy morning all at Simeplant

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-02-21 11:44 | Report Abuse

sold all today. thanks. slowly add into tech position now

Posted by kyliew > 2022-02-21 12:07 | Report Abuse

Wah that red big candle

Posted by Goldgent > 2022-02-21 14:08 | Report Abuse

Sime Plantation’s target price given hefty raise on buoyant CPO prices
https://focusmalaysia.my/sime-plantations-target-price-given-hefty-raise-on-buoyant-cpo-prices/

Posted by Goldgent > 2022-02-21 14:11 | Report Abuse

MIDF Research: Sime Darby Plantation's FFB production set to improve in near term
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/midf-research-sime-darby-plantations-ffb-production-set-improve-near-term

Posted by wan > 2022-02-21 14:52 | Report Abuse

plantation index big drop

Posted by wan > 2022-02-21 14:52 | Report Abuse

klci big drop today led by plantations

Posted by Mabel > 2022-02-21 21:55 | Report Abuse

Price target increased to RM5.12

Up from RM4.52, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts.
New target price is 12% above last closing price of RM4.58.
Stock is down 6.0% over the past year.
The company is forecast to post earnings per share of RM0.28 for next year compared to RM0.33 last year.