Remember the Margin of safety value investment is not driven by the folly of mkt timing , but actually driven by by fundamental of the stock mispricing and undervaluation where u buy to take of Mr market advantage loh....!!
The advantages of Margin of safety, u never hold overvalue stock loh.!!
Posted by 3iii > Jan 31, 2019 01:07 PM | Report Abuse
The Folly of Market Timing
Summary of the Advantages and Disadvantages of the Buy and Hold Strategy.
Advantages: Don't have to worry about the market. Don't have to worry about the economy. Don't have to pay attention to short term fluctuations. Easy to manage portfolio. Ideally, don't have to sell at all. Notable success stories and history.
Disadvantages: Doesn't protect against bear markets and corrections. Stocks should be extensively researched and carefully chosen. Long term strategy. No quick short term profits.
Posted by stockraider > Jan 31, 2019 02:09 PM | Report Abuse
The advantages of Margin of safety, u never hold overvalue stock loh.!! >>>>
Poor raider.
He never know the joy of owning a 10 or 20 or 40 multibaggars.
He sold his stocks whenever they are overvalued!
He is a poor learner.
Despite been shown by 3iii for the last 10 years that he was wrong, his habit is too heavily chained for him to break lose and change.
Accordingly, his rewards will be speculative returns. He will not fathom the tremendous power of a growing portfolio at the end of a long compounding period.
Offensive portfolio management deals with grossly overvalued situations and is less urgent to pursue. Here your focus is to capture excess profit when a stock temporarily becomes overvalued by REPLACING it with another stock of equal or grater quality and greater return potential.
Missing an offensive portfolio management problem only results in a *little lost extra profit*. You'll still own a quality stock.
Why raider says longterm investment with PE 50x cannot work leh ??
The folly of buying overvalue growth stock when there is no margin of safety loh...!!
1. With PE 50x....achieving 15% pa return is quite difficult loh, in fact there a high risk of negative return mah...!! 2. 80% success again not likely loh...!! If it is PE 15x with growth, then 80% success rate could be possible but not when PE 50x loh..!! 3. Simple procedure ....yes it is very simple to lose monies if buy overvalue stock mah...!! 4. Carefree maintenance...not true loh....in fact u should worry mah...when your stock is overvalue ...like in case of Padini it crash more than 50% within a few wks loh...!!
Growth investor claim advantage, yes provided u buy at undervalue or fair price n not overvalue like PE 50x loh...!!
Advantages of Long Term Investing into Growth Stocks
Valuation of banks is using P/B. P/B > 2 means overvaluation.
In 2009 and 2010, the P/B values were 3.54 and 3.50 respectively.
Should you have sold then at 11.30 or 13.02 in 2009 and 2010, hoping to buy back later, you would be disappointed. You would have to buy at highee prices later.
Valuation of banks is using P/B. P/B > 2 means overvaluation.
In 2009 and 2010, the P/B values were 3.54 and 3.50 respectively.
Should you have sold then at 11.30 or 13.02 in 2009 and 2010, hoping to buy back later, you would be disappointed. You would have to buy at highee prices later.
I called DLady when it was trading at $14 and PE of 14.
In 2012, its share price shot up due to double whammy of its increased EPS and expanding PE.
Should you sell because its PE had increased by > 50% from its usual PE of < 15.
If you have sold in 2012, presumably you would wish to buy it back at lower prices. Well, it turned out to be impossible. You can only buy it back at higher prices.
Why has DLady PE gone up instead of down in 2017 and 2018 despite lower earnings in those years?
I called DLady when it was trading at $14 and PE of 14.
In 2012, its share price shot up due to double whammy of its increased EPS and expanding PE.
Should you sell because its PE had increased by > 50% from its usual PE of < 15.
If you have sold in 2012, presumably you would wish to buy it back at lower prices. Well, it turned out to be impossible. You can only buy it back at higher prices.
Why has DLady PE gone up instead of down in 2017 and 2018 despite lower earnings in those years?
But look at Dlady assuming u enter in 2011 at Rm 23.40 Pe 14x and today rm 62.00 about 3 baggers over 8 yrs...your performance may not even beat margin of safety penny stock like insas bought at Rm 0.42 in 2011 and sold over rm 1.10 in 2014, also close to 3 baggers over 3 to 4 yrs period mah..!!
No doubt Dlady has higher div over this period, but Insas being able to realized its potential gain much earlier at least than half the time of dlady , is able to continue to reinvest in other margin of safety stock mah...!!!
All in all, investors in insas is not less superior compare with Dlady loh...!!
Lets compare to hengyuan & dutch lady scenario loh...!!
Why raider call for a buy on hengyuan Rm 15.00 and say tp Rm 45.00 but lari kuat kuat at rm 13.00 when earnings disappoint leh ??
1. Hengyuan gain is tremendous from Rm 3.00 to Rm 19.00 in a period of less than 1 yr mah....this mean dlady gain over 10 yrs & hengyuan can do it 1 yr mah...!!
2. Hengyuan Pe was 6x when its share price was Rm 15.00 on top of that hengyuan earnings growth was above 200% loh...!! Raider expect the earnings can sustained...but when earnings disappointment come in, with the new figure raider recalculate and the projected earnings no good so raider lari kuat kuat loh...!!
3. Why this scenario is not applicable to dlady in 2014, with a sell like what 3iii says...u still can hold on n later...like what 3iii says and still make monies leh ?? People need to realize Dlady got a better higher rating bcos of its consistency in earnings and a higher dividend payout and rate track record compare to hengyuan mah .
For raider there is 2 approach in respect of dlady loh;
a} If the PE is high say above 30x ,Usually raider will lari kuat kuat and buy back later when things looks better and calm, anyhow during the earnings disappointment there is too much positive expectation built in b4 result release, thus it is ok to sell and there should be opportunity to buy back mah...!!
b) If pe is say 15x to 17x...raider do not mind to ride out the storm as the stock has low expectation and the bad result already in a way anticipated by the mkt mah...!!
For raider the correct approach is to cut & sell dlady at say Rm 25.00 and buy back say at around Rm 20.00 ....after things has settle & improve loh...!!
But if u only know how to drive a car forward like 3iii and do not know how to brake and reverse, then it is better u not to sell to take advantage of short term opportunity loh...!!
I think the Dlady scenario also got repeated in F&N too, when F&N lost its coca cola franchise loh...!!
For Padini Pls check the dlady scenario already explain how to handle mah..!!
SUPERIMPOSE PADINI SCENARIO TO DLADY LOH...!!
For raider there is 2 approach in respect of dlady loh;
a} If the PE is high say above 30x ,Usually raider will lari kuat kuat and buy back later when things looks better and calm, anyhow during the earnings disappointment there is too much positive expectation built in b4 result release, thus it is ok to sell and there should be opportunity to buy back mah...!!
b) If pe is say 15x to 17x...raider do not mind to ride out the storm as the stock has low expectation and the bad result already in a way anticipated by the mkt mah...!!
For raider the correct approach is to cut & sell dlady at say Rm 25.00 and buy back say at around Rm 20.00 ....after things has settle & improve loh...!!
But if u only know how to drive a car forward like 3iii and do not know how to brake and reverse, then it is better u not to sell to take advantage of short term opportunity loh...!!
I think the Dlady scenario also got repeated in F&N too, when F&N lost its coca cola franchise loh...!!
Why did the share price of Padini drop recently from $6 to $3.71? Basically, it announced a very poor Q1, 19 results.
The PBT dropped to 26.624 million and its PBT margin shrunk from double digits to 8.07%.
Should you be worried?
How do you protect your investment?
How can you profit from this drop in its share price?
[Be reminded, when Uniqlo and H&M first appeared on the local scene, Padini's price also dropped by about 50% from $2 to 1.30. It remained low for about 2 years and then eventually rose all the way to $6.00, until the recent drop in its share price due to announcement of poor earnings.]
Is its fundamentals damaged? Permanently?
Or is this a temporary lull? Look for your reasons.
Of course, smart raider came out soon after the drop and taunt the shareholders of Padini to show how smart he has been!
Can you see him jumping from DLady, to Nestle, then to Petdag and now to Padini? Is he not embarrassing himself for being so wrong so often, though occasionally, the prices did align to his view, though temporarily but not for long?
Raider already explain my approach to growth investment & margin of safety investment mah...!!
They are many way to make monies, so pls be abit open minded loh..!!
Raider don expect u follow my way mah...!! But pls be open minded that other approach is also applicable mah..!!
They will be No arguement at all, if u don simply attack raider with bad faith for being different from u loh...!!
Raider jump on it, like what u have being doing on margin of safety stock mah...!! It is a case study why raider want to miss the opportunity leh ?? U also do the same on raider's stock mah...!!
3iii UNSPORTING COMMENT BELOW LOH:
"Of course, smart raider came out soon after the drop and taunt the shareholders of Padini to show how smart he has been! Can you see him jumping from DLady, to Nestle, then to Petdag and now to Padini? Is he not embarrassing himself for being so wrong so often, though occasionally, the prices did align to his view, though temporarily but not for long? +
"Of course, smart raider came out soon after the drop and taunt the shareholders of Padini to show how smart he has been! Can you see him jumping from DLady, to Nestle, then to Petdag and now to Padini? Is he not embarrassing himself for being so wrong so often, though occasionally, the prices did align to his view, though temporarily but not for long? + 31/01/2019 20:18>>>>
This is the mildest compliment I have received from raider in 10 years. Must be the CNY spirit.
How do I get this guy to stop? It's like he has a crystal ball can catch every single uptrend downtrend sell before danger "Will Robinson" trend?
If his every move is perfect maybe I should just sell all my shares and pay him for his subscription in exact date and time to sell or buy a stock.
If really can predict buy INSAS at 0.42 and sell exactly at 1.10 then I feel very embarrassed for myself, I don't know how to even begin to learn how to crystal ball my way out
Sometimes I really wonder am I missing something. I really want to know, how to buy at bottom and sell at the top, I want to LEARN!
Can someone teach me how to do this? Buy at 3, sell at 19 when you can calculate to up to 45, then sell at 13 when you know the quarterly earnings is not out yet, but figures still show earnings projection at 45… Hengyuan gain is tremendous from Rm 3.00 to Rm 19.00 in a period of less than 1 yr mah..
Or even this? insas bought at Rm 0.42 in 2011 and sold over rm 1.10 in 2014, How could anyone predict this exactly? I looked through the earnings and revenues and growth triggers and fundamental, technical and business sense indicators. Nothing in those makes any sense. Right after his stock plummeted in December 2014, it was due to record revenues of INSAS at 100 million and poor earnings of 9 million. For that the stock was punished immediately to from 1.25 to 1.1. but the very next quarter they again had record revenues and earnings. Why then did the stock crash to 0.82. how do you even predict this.
If prediction was even possible, then the question is to learn. How on earth do you know?
INSAS to buy at 0.67.... nta at 2.54. the intrinsic value to sell at what price? How does it work? Do you only sell when it reaches 2.54? Or do we sell when we make double the profit at 1.34? Or do we still look at earnings growth, if suddenly growth goes nuclear, do we say the intrinsic value becomes 45, can continue to hold? If the stock keeps oscillating beyond our expectations, how do we invest without a crystal ball? Isn't this a miracle investment?
It's really too difficult for me this kind of investing. Maybe I'm just to dumb for active investing.
Isn't it more plausible that 3ii and I just found a stock that has the criteria I was looking for when I first bought it ( revenue, earnings increasing or stabilizing quarter after quarter, year after year) good management in increasing roe and debt without heavy rights issue and loans, new business expansion plans yearly,increasing dividend amount yearly, no nasty surprises quarterly losses etc.
I can't predict the future, but each quarter the business just chugs along criteria hit same as when I first bought the stock, so I just keep following and buying the same stock.
Imagine if I could predict the future, if I could buy the dips and sell on the rise of the stock wouldn't I be able to earn even more?
But that is a foolish fallacy. I don't know if it can be done, or how I would even go about doing such a thing.
How do you know how to buy the dips and sell the peaks if you knew INSAS was undervalued at 0.67 and fairly valued at 2.54.
Can someone tell me? How long do I wait for the stock to reach 2.54? Will raider keep it and sell at 2.54?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-12 08:05 | Report Abuse
My Golden Rule of Investing: Companies that grow revenues and earnings will see share prices grow over time.