Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-08 23:04 | Report Abuse

Raider is envious of Mr Philip's successful investing.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-08 23:20 | Report Abuse

a strategy that beats God.....



https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averagi

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 12:46 | Report Abuse

Use ur brainlah...stupid mah..!!...where got strategy that can beat god leh ??

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 8, 2019 11:20 PM | Report Abuse

a strategy that beats God.....



https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averagi

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 12:49 | Report Abuse

Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging
Posted February 5, 2019 by Nick Maggiulli


write to Nick la, raider........

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 12:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 12:59 | Report Abuse

Raider is very envious of Mr Philip's successful investing.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 13:07 | Report Abuse

I think we should ask be envious of raider more leh. He invested in HL for so long since 1998, from rm1 to rm20 with many many dividends.
Problem is, he lack the conviction to realize opportunity costs. If he put in all his quarterly salary, savings, margin loan and borrowing every quarter since 1998 until 2019, I think he can become substantial shareholder in Hong leong and make more money than kyy.

Too bad.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 16:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 16:57 | Report Abuse

Diversification is for those who don't know how to value their stocks properly. They lack clarity and business sense, so they think to reduce their risk by buying other stocks (which they also don't know as well).

But if you know your risk and stock well, why bother diversifying into other lesser understood stocks.

You will never convince me after you buy into bjcorp, weida, etc etc will, you decide to diversify into bad stocks like PRTASCO,talam and binapuri is a GOOD idea. Calvin tan did (or did not) that to 50 stocks.

How can that be a good business strategy? It is impossible for you to know all those stocks well enough all the time, otherwise how would you lose money on those turds?

The answer is you don't know well enough about those stocks to make an educated decision. Diversification should be about opportunity costs, where you buy other stocks because you think those others might do better than the stocks you currently hold.

The risk is in not understanding your stocks. NOT in diversification.

But believe what you want. You have repeated your sentence word for word in every forum page with the same thought process. Same words, all in capslocks. No new info, nothing new to learn. We get it.

It's getting boring.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-09 17:06 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/192750.jsp

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:17 | Report Abuse

Thats why raider against pushing optimistic overvalue stock like QL over 8 to 10 yrs period loh....!!

Raider even sold insas in 2014, at Rm 1.10 & above bcos the undervaluation gap has been close up loh....!!

Raider bought back INSAS bcos extreme undervaluation, all these are based on contraian investment approach mah...!!


This blog has repeatedly profiled great investors who have acquired skill in knowing when to be contrarian. Buffett’s famous admonition is: “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” One of the best times to invest is when uncertainty is the greatest and fear is the highest. This contrarian admonition is fully consistent with the Mr. Market metaphor. Make the market your servant and not your master. For example, Jeffrey Gundlach puts it this way: “I want fear. I want to buy things when people are afraid of it, not when they think it’s a gift being handed down to them.” There aren’t many people like Charlie Munger: “We have a history when things are really horrible of wading in when no one else will.”

Bucking the crowd’s viewpoint in practice in the real world is not easy since the investor is fighting social proof. Robert Cialdini: “social proof is most powerful for those who feel unfamiliar or unsure in a specific situation and who, consequently, must look outside of themselves for evidence of how best to behave there.” I discussed social proof in a recent blog post on Cialdini’s book Influence. In many cases, following the crowd (social proof) makes sense. Sticking with the warmth of the crowd is a natural instinct for most people. Many people would rather fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally. But doing the reverse is easier said that done for most people.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 17:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:26 | Report Abuse

Understanding The concept and philosophy of margin of safety investment mah ;

"The choice isn’t really between value and growth, but between value today and value tomorrow. Growth investing represents a bet on company performance that may or may not materialize in the future, while value investing is based primarily on analysis of a company’s current wealth. (19-20).
LOGICALLY MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT ARE LESS SPECULATIVE THAN GROWTH INVESTMENT LOH...!!

Establishing a healthy relationship between fundamentals — value — and price is at the core of successful investing. (24). CORRECTLOH ALOT OF PEOPLE MAEGIN OF SAFETY VALUE INVESTMENT IS TOTALLY WRONGLOH..!!
IT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VALUE V PRICE MAH..!!

Bottom Line: there’s no such thing as a good or bad idea regardless of price! (25). CORRECTLOH QL PE 50X EVEN IF CO IS A BETTER THAN INSAS BUT U NEED TO BENCHMARK AGST VALUE & PRICE IN THAT CASE, INSAS STAND OUT .

Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals. (27)
Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. (27). STOCK LIKE QL AND NESTLE MOVE UP SO MUCH OVER SO MANY YRS..U SHOULD WARY ABOUT OVERVALUATION LOH...THE FACT ITS PE ABOVE 50X CONFIRM WEARINESS LOH!!

The safest and most potentially profitable thing is to buy something when no one likes it. (27). LIKE INSAS PE 6.5X NOT MANY PEOPLE LIKES & HAVE BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!

Unfortunately, the greater fool theory only works until it doesn’t. Valuation eventually comes into play, and those who are holding the bag when it does have to face the music. (28). DO NOT SIMPLY CHASE MAH !!

Risk means more things can happen than will happen. (31)
The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about.(36)
IF U CHASE THERE IS A BIG POSSIBILITY OF LOSSES LOH...!!

Skillful investors can get a sense for the risk present in a given situation. They make that judgement based on (a) the stability and dependability of value and (b) the relationship between price and value. (39). AS USUAL PEOPLE LIKE RAIDER, CALVIN TAN, SSLEE AND LENO UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF VALUE, THUS THEY PICK INSAS LOH...!!

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-02-09 17:43 | Report Abuse

margin of safety is when no speed traders...

your real safety is how fast u cutloss

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 17:50 | Report Abuse

margin of safety is like on drugs, on tranquilizers......die already still don't know why.......

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Feb 9, 2019 05:52 PM | Report Abuse X

THATS HOW MARGIN OF SAFETY ALWAYS WORKS LOH...!!

Once u buy right ur sell will be taken care by itself mah....!!

In other words is about cut gain n not cut loss loh...!!

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 9, 2019 05:44 PM | Report Abuse

It's not about been a contrarian per say! It's about having intel that others don't have! Example is Hengyuan, that gone up by few hundred percent! It's not about buying when everybody is selling, it's about intel when to buy and when to sell!

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-02-09 17:57 | Report Abuse

yeah sifu qqq3...

best analogy...

margin of safety is like on drugs, on tranquilizers......die already still don't know why.......

another word of wisdom

thank you sifu!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 18:08 | Report Abuse

haw, we are on same page

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-13 07:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-13 07:55 | Report Abuse

Still living in own little bubble

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-13 08:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-13 08:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-14 10:16 | Report Abuse

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2019/02/buffett-explains-intrinsic-value.html


How do you calculate intrinsic value?

You should look at the cash that you are able to get out of the company from today to eternity, and discount this cash by a discount factor.

In your valuation:

1. determine how certain you will be able to get this cash
2. how much cash is available
3. when will you receive them.

Knowing the above, will you be wiling to give up your present $1 cash for this investment, hoping to receive more than its worth in the future?

Discount factor is important. Using the risk free interest rate of 15% per year, for your $1 investment today, you should be certain to receive more than $2 in 5 years from the investment. If the risk free interest rate is 4% (like today), you can accept to receive this $2 in a longer time from today.

Just make sure that you are CERTAIN there are, using Aesop's fable, "birds in the bush and when you will receive them" before giving up the "bird in your hand."

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-14 10:28 | Report Abuse

Why waste time forecast & calculate and speculate your future cashflow leh ?
U just look at insas it already has more than Rm 300m nett cash in hand, u look at inari the 19% mkt cap exceed the whole of insas mkt cap mah.!!
Furthermore the company is trading at PE 6.5x and with a div yield of 3% pa already in your pocket mah....!!
Most importantly the company has an nta Rm 2.54 per share v mkt price Rm 0.835 loh....!!

To conclude if u buy into insas with huge margin of safety and already successful why subject yourself to the uncertainty of forecasting the unpredictablility of growth leh ??

Buy something that has great value at a big discount which already there mah.....!! Insas is the best margin of safety stock loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Feb 14, 2019 10:16 AM | Report Abuse

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2019/02/buffett-explains-intrins...

How do you calculate intrinsic value?

You should look at the cash that you are able to get out of the company from today to eternity, and discount this cash by a discount factor.

In your valuation:

1. determine how certain you will be able to get this cash
2. how much cash is available
3. when will you receive them.

Knowing the above, will you be wiling to give up your present $1 cash for this investment, hoping to receive more than its worth in the future?

Discount factor is important. Using the risk free interest rate of 15% per year, for your $1 investment today, you should be certain to receive more than $2 in 5 years from the investment. If the risk free interest rate is 4% (like today), you can accept to receive this $2 in a longer time from today.

Just make sure that you are CERTAIN there are, using Aesop's fable, "birds in the bush and when you will receive them" before giving up the "bird in your hand."

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-14 11:19 | Report Abuse

now , people are playing quarter profit X 4 stocks or 2 quarters X 2 stocks........its good while it lasts....works until it doesn't work....

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-15 13:09 | Report Abuse

The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-15 13:11 | Report Abuse

Many dance in and out of stocks frequently and feel they can make a lot of money doing so.

Choose to be their brokers but not their partners.


(Good advice).

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-15 13:16 | Report Abuse

don't be so sure you are on right path

it is true that frequent in and out is pointless

but there is a middle path between sloth and hyperactivity

that middle path could be very profitable

by being condescending towards others methods, you prematurely shut yourself off from the real world

warren Buffett becomes the richest person in the world by investing based on moats and compounded growth, but this is Malaysia

there is a lot of work need to be done to verify his theory can work well here, in my opinion

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-15 13:20 | Report Abuse

the reason I said the above because I have witnessed with my own eyes how certain people I know amassed great wealth beyond your imagination by investing in quality second liners without paying excessive attention to moat

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-15 13:37 | Report Abuse

Lessons learned over many years

- Buying high quality, solid-growing, individual stocks with a long-term horizon provides superior returns.

- Long term investing reduces drag caused by trading costs.

- Buy and hold investing requires lower time commitment than active strategies.

- Longer horizon helps reduce risk of stock investing.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-15 15:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 15, 2019 01:16 PM | Report Abuse

don't be so sure you are on right path
==========


conviction....no conviction, no profits.


S=Q r

what makes up Q?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-15 15:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-15 15:48 | Report Abuse

Don't fear selling


- "Buy and hold" does not mean "buy and forget."

- When mistake is made, acknowledge error & sell.

- Waiting to get even is self defeating strategy. ("evenitis")

- Can use TSLO (trailing stop loss order) on downside when appropriate.



Replace and upgrade your stocks in your portfolio.

There is always room for improvement in your portfolio.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-15 16:30 | Report Abuse

Hold until circumstances change

- Never sell to "take a profit." Let winners ride to capture long term profits.
- Occasionally sell on overvaluation.
- More often sell due to deteriorating fundamentals.



Most sales come from:

- Deteriorating fundamentals/declining growth.
- Appearance of headwinds/uncertain outlook for future.



Reasons for selling:

Key reasons cited (top to bottom, from most common reasons to least common reasons):

- due to "declining/flat growth" (38.5%)
- due to "uncertain outlook for future" (30.8%)
- due to "acquisitions or spin-off" (15.4%)
- due to "accounting irregularities" (11.5%)
- due to "overvaluation" (7.7%)
- due to "pressures on margins" (7.7%)
- due to "adverse management changes" (3.8%)

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-16 08:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 07:05 | Report Abuse

Know and understand your limitations.

This will keep you from troubles.



For examples:

Hengyuan target price $45. (Raider)

Jaks is a sure bet. (KYY)



There is no rule that always work in the market.

We need to have superior judgement. Judgement is everything.

Sure, we can work harder on the processes but this is no certain guarantee.

Most successful investors have no problems here. Their results have been validated.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 12:03 | Report Abuse

In general, I do not or rarely, sell my shares.

Often, I will switch from A to B.

However, this switching will be guided by certain criteria.

1. B must be a high quality company, equal to or even better, than A. It must have a great business with durable competitive advantage.

2. At the present price, B must have significant upside reward to downside loss ratio, compared to stock A.

3. At the present price, B must have a higher potential return over the next 5 to 10 years compared to stock A.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 16:54 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/150381.jsp

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-20 15:15 | Report Abuse

Interesting point to note.

Charlie Munger's money is all parked in 3 investments:

1. Berkshire Hathaway
2. Costco
3. Li Lu investment fund in China.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-20 16:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-20 16:34 | Report Abuse

Investors can generate strong returns over time, simply by following a few simple rules in the investment selection process.

If investors buy high-quality businesses trading for less than their intrinsic value, with strong management teams, and are patient to hold for long periods of time, their performance can measurably improve.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 07:32 | Report Abuse

Remember the 3 rules of 3iii


Large margin of safety: buying wonderful company at fair price.

Some margin of safety: buying fair company at wonderful price.

No margin of safety: buying gruesome company at any price.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 19:14 | Report Abuse

"Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant."

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 19:15 | Report Abuse

"People are trying to be smart - all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it's harder than most people think."

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 19:16 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 19:25 | Report Abuse

“We have three baskets for investing: yes, no, and too tough to understand.”

To identify potential “yes” candidates, Charlie looks for an easy to understand, dominant business franchise that can sustain itself and thrive in all market environments. Understandably, few companies survive this first cut.

Many investor favorites such as pharmaceuticals and technology, for example, go straight to the “too tough to understand” basket.

Heavily promoted “deals” and IPOs earn immediate “no’s.”

Those that do survive this first winnowing are subjected to the screens and filters of Charlie’s mental model approach.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 19:26 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-22 19:26 | Report Abuse

“We like to make hay while the sun sets, knowing that it will surely rise again.” – Warren Buffett