To let u know properly..."INSAS HATHWAY is the margin of safety stock pick for 2019 loh"
Posted by stockraider > Feb 1, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse X
Very good point loh...!!
Insas v icap.
1.insas more undervalue based on nta agst share price 2.Insas at lower PE 3.Insas pays div with yield 3% 4 Insas has shown higher growth 5.Insas is in the fore front of technology exposure with inari. 6.Insas business is active while icap business is passive.
INSAS HATHAWAY IS 2019 MSIA MARGIN OF SAFETY VALUE INVESTMENT OF THE YEAR MAH.....!!
Posted by calvintaneng > Feb 1, 2019 10:25 AM | Report Abuse
To understand Insas just look at Icapbiz. Icapbiz invests in Companies So do Insas Both Icapbiz and Insas have very good strong Nta. Insas has been growing far better than Icapbiz in Nav over the decade. And Insas has very good future in Inari
Plus Insas has multiple types of business in real estate, car rental, f&b and above all
It is easy to sell at a profit, especially one with PE 50....
anyone can do that...that is everyone's impulse.
That is why I say I like and respect people who keep their great companies, companies with great reputation and great story still intact.......that has to be a learned habit.....and is a great habit.
It is easy to sell at a profit, especially one with PE 50....
anyone can do that...that is everyone's impulse.
That is why I say I like and respect people who keep their great companies, companies with great reputation and great story still intact.......that has to be a learned habit.....and is a great habit.
I wish I had that habit when younger.....I am good at identifying great companies......just too bad, I have never really been an investor.....I had always treated stock market as a place to trade shares with very high velocity
If u can jump over a 2ft pole like insas PE 6x, why waste time attempting a 7ft pole like QL PE 50x leh ??
Especially u are not young anymore loh...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 1, 2019 11:43 AM | Report Abuse
It is easy to sell at a profit, especially one with PE 50....
anyone can do that...that is everyone's impulse.
That is why I say I like and respect people who keep their great companies, companies with great reputation and great story still intact.......that has to be a learned habit.....and is a great habit.
I wish I had that habit when younger.....I am good at identifying great companies......just too bad, I have never really been an investor.....I had always treated stock market as a place to trade shares with very high velocity
Graham advice u bet on all loh...as long it beat ur hurdle rate mah...!!
Just like a pole contest...1ft...2ft...3ft...4ft...u can jump over u get a prize....So naturally u jump all if u want many prices and in anyway sup sup sui u can mah...!!
Posted by 3iii > Feb 1, 2019 11:45 AM | Report Abuse
PROBABILITY OF VALUE REALIZATION
What do you do if there are multiple bargains at the same time?
How do you distinguish which ones offer better value than the other ones?
One stock is trading at 40% below its intrinsic value and another at 70% below its intrinsic value.
WHICH ONE DO YOU INVEST INTO?
WHAT IF ONE OF THE INVESTMENTS HAS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF VALUE REALIZATION THAN THE OTHER?
Note: The best absolute value may not always be your best investment choice.
The case of Press Metal 2016/2017 is very interesting....multiple baggers during the run and for very very good reasons too......now, it has hit a plateau......
Philips....Did u benefit from Press Metals run earlier?
it takes 30 yrs....for a 40 baggers may not beat 200% to 300 % gain in 2 yrs mah....!!
Why leh ?? IT is base effect mah....!! If today i invest Rm 0.70 on insas...it achieve Rm 1.40 gain in 1 yr time, i achieve 100% gain loh...!!
But Say u bought Nestle 20 yrs ago at Rm 5.00 today worth RM 150 ....can u say next yr your nestle worth RM 300.00 for a 100% gain leh ?? Cannot loh...this is call base effect loh...growth investor still look at their investment cost of Rm 5.00...they don understand opportunity cost mah...!! They still say 30 bagger this n that loh..!! But say next yr nestle is Rm 165.00...it is only 10% gain...this growth fellow will tell people he got a 32.5 bagger { using Rm 5.00 base}...but by right it is only 10% gain mah...!!
So for new investor better to start up as margin of safety investor...as the measurement don mislead u mah...!!
If u happen to get a MOS stock than turnout to a growth stock, u just hang on to it...u benerfit bothway loh...MOS rerating gain and Growth stock premium Gain loh...!!
If u buy insas hathway PE 6x the 2019 margin of safety stock at Rm 0.75 v Rm 2.54 nta and alot of cash...how can be mkt scam leh ??
The risk of Mkt scam when u buy QL Rm 6.80 PE above 50x n div less than 1% pa...u r worried about mkt scam loh...!!
Stock Market Scams
As an investor, you must be aware of the stock market scams. The following are two of the most common stock scams.
1. The Pump and Dump The pump and dump is one of the easiest and most common ways of taking money away from unsuspecting investors. Although it is illegal, the use of the pump and dump has actually increased because the Internet has made it possible to reach millions more people.
Here’s how the pump and dump works:
First, company insiders try to convince outsiders to buy a stock, usually the stock of a small over-the-counter company (Penny stocks). Investors are led to believe that this is a “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunity to make a small fortune. The fraudsters will pump up interest in the stock by sending messages through Internet chat rooms, or posting overly optimistic press releases.
Before the Internet, pump and dumpers used to call people on the telephone (often called Boiler Rooms). The idea is to artificially pump up the price of a stock by spreading false news. The stock price rises because of increased buying and speculation, not because of anything positive happening in the company.
As the stock goes higher, those with inside knowledge are prepared for the “dump.” As more people buy shares of the stock, the insiders sell all their shares for a huge profit. Eventually, the truth comes out, and the stock price falls as more people sell. Guess who is left holding the shares of the now nearly worthless stock? You guessed it – the unsuspecting investors who bought into the hype. They probably thought the price could go higher, so they never sold their shares.
The pump and dump is one of the oldest and most effective scams. Usually, pump and dumps are used on small stocks selling below $1.00 a share because it is easier for pump-and-dumpers to manipulate the stock price with smaller stocks.
>>> Posted by stockraider > Feb 1, 2019 12:07 PM | Report Abuse
it takes 30 yrs....for a 40 baggers may not beat 200% to 300 % gain in 2 yrs mah....!!
Why leh ?? IT is base effect mah....!! If today i invest Rm 0.70 on insas...it achieve Rm 1.40 gain in 1 yr time, i achieve 100% gain loh...!!
But Say u bought Nestle 20 yrs ago at Rm 5.00 today worth RM 150 ....can u say next yr your nestle worth RM 300.00 for a 100% gain leh ?? Cannot loh...this is call base effect loh...growth investor still look at their investment cost of Rm 5.00...they don understand opportunity cost mah...!! They still say 30 bagger this n that loh..!! But say next yr nestle is Rm 165.00...it is only 10% gain...this growth fellow will tell people he got a 32.5 bagger { using Rm 5.00 base}...but by right it is only 10% gain mah...!!
So for new investor better to start up as margin of safety investor...as the measurement don mislead u mah...!!
If u happen to get a MOS stock than turnout to a growth stock, u just hang on to it...u benerfit bothway loh...MOS rerating gain and Growth stock premium Gain loh...!!
But this is rare ...usually 1 in 50 pick loh...!! >>>
Still cannot fathom the power of long term compounding.
Raider already tell u in the case of NESTLE at rm 150 even it hit Rm 165...the compounding effect is 10% n not ur target 15% pa mah...!!
This 3iii do not understand compounding every yr loh...!!
Posted by 3iii > Feb 1, 2019 12:15 PM | Report Abuse
>>> Posted by stockraider > Feb 1, 2019 12:07 PM | Report Abuse
it takes 30 yrs....for a 40 baggers may not beat 200% to 300 % gain in 2 yrs mah....!!
Why leh ?? IT is base effect mah....!! If today i invest Rm 0.70 on insas...it achieve Rm 1.40 gain in 1 yr time, i achieve 100% gain loh...!!
But Say u bought Nestle 20 yrs ago at Rm 5.00 today worth RM 150 ....can u say next yr your nestle worth RM 300.00 for a 100% gain leh ?? Cannot loh...this is call base effect loh...growth investor still look at their investment cost of Rm 5.00...they don understand opportunity cost mah...!! They still say 30 bagger this n that loh..!! But say next yr nestle is Rm 165.00...it is only 10% gain...this growth fellow will tell people he got a 32.5 bagger { using Rm 5.00 base}...but by right it is only 10% gain mah...!!
So for new investor better to start up as margin of safety investor...as the measurement don mislead u mah...!!
If u happen to get a MOS stock than turnout to a growth stock, u just hang on to it...u benerfit bothway loh...MOS rerating gain and Growth stock premium Gain loh...!!
But this is rare ...usually 1 in 50 pick loh...!!
Still cannot fathom the power of long term compounding.
To illustrate this effect further, we take one step back loh...!!
Say next yr nestle fell to Rm 120....but this growth investor like 3iii, will tell people his nestle is 24 baggers loh...!! But he lost damn Rm 30....or 20% but he can still be proud to say he make 24 bagger loh....!!
Is this misleading if u still use ur base effect of Rm 5.00 more than 20 yrs ago ??
SO PLEASE THINK CAREFULLY N DON MISLEAD YOURSELF LOH..!!
But Say u bought Nestle 20 yrs ago at Rm 5.00 today worth RM 150 ....can u say next yr your nestle worth RM 300.00 for a 100% gain leh ?? Cannot loh...this is call base effect loh...growth investor still look at their investment cost of Rm 5.00...they don understand opportunity cost mah...!! They still say 30 bagger this n that loh..!! But say next yr nestle is Rm 165.00...it is only 10% gain...this growth fellow will tell people he got a 32.5 bagger { using Rm 5.00 base}...but by right it is only 10% gain mah...!!
So if u R a newbies just started investment can u be as proud as 3iii, bought into Nestle at Rm 150 and the share price now at Rm 120, and say 24 bagger gain leh ??
The answer is NO loh...!!
Thats why raider say u need to invest base on MOS and mark to market every yr loh....!!
This is to avoid the false sense of confidence like 3iii and philip mah.....!!
To illustrate this effect further, we take one step back loh...!!
Say next yr nestle fell to Rm 120....but this growth investor like 3iii, will tell people his nestle is 24 baggers loh...!! But he lost damn Rm 30....or 20% but he can still be proud to say he make 24 bagger loh....!!
Is this misleading if u still use ur base effect of Rm 5.00 more than 20 yrs ago ??
SO PLEASE THINK CAREFULLY N DON MISLEAD YOURSELF LOH..!!
But Say u bought Nestle 20 yrs ago at Rm 5.00 today worth RM 150 ....can u say next yr your nestle worth RM 300.00 for a 100% gain leh ?? Cannot loh...this is call base effect loh...growth investor still look at their investment cost of Rm 5.00...they don understand opportunity cost mah...!! They still say 30 bagger this n that loh..!! But say next yr nestle is Rm 165.00...it is only 10% gain...this growth fellow will tell people he got a 32.5 bagger { using Rm 5.00 base}...but by right it is only 10% gain mah...!!
If it takes 30 yrs to double what is the point must as well, put in fixed deposits of 4% pa mah....!!
The aspiration of newbies to make good return at 12% pa to 15% pa compound....but if u ask him to put in NESTLE and QL with PE above 50% is it not counter productive loh...!!
If u buy into Insas MOS at least it promise to double within 3 yrs easily mah...!!
Do you think Nestle has a change to double to $300.00 per share?
If yes, when do you think this will occur? 10 years from today. 20 years from today.
Do you have this ability?
Do you think your long term investing into Nestle for the next 10 years will give you less or give you more returns when compared to:
1. leaving the same amount in FD at risk free interest rate? 2. leaving the same amount in EPF? 3. leaving the same amount in ASB (for those eligible, max 200,000)?
Do you have an FD? Which will give you better return over the next 10 years: Nestle or FD?
This is the sort of rational thinking you should go through.
Of course, if you can find a better stock to invest into, no one is preventing you from doing so.
The mainpoint...is Growth investor has mislead the public investor...by not refering to yearly return...but they used aggregrate average return like NESTLE of 25% pa loh....!!
So if nestle is not performing this yr....they will say...the average return 20 bagger over 20 yrs...but that this yr Nestle may even give negative return loh...!!
Raider diff...Measure return...yearly mark to market mah...not confusing loh....!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 1, 2019 11:56 AM | Report Abuse X
The case of Press Metal 2016/2017 is very interesting....multiple baggers during the run and for very very good reasons too......now, it has hit a plateau......
Philips....Did u benefit from Press Metals run earlier?
My purpose of writing this piece is to teach you how to make more money or how to improve your profit from the stock market by using margin finance. As I often said, I walk the talk. My wife and I have a total borrowing facility of more than Rm 100 million from 6 local financial institutions.
I must say, God works in a mysterious way in directing me to look at Carimin's 1st quarter announcement 5.01 sen per share at end of November last year when the price was about 30 sen. Immediately started to buy with all my available funds. I even sold 2 pieces of land fronting the Meru Golf course to buy more Carimin share. In the last few trading days, an average of about 15 million shares changed hands. It shows that many institutional investors were buying so aggressively as if there is no more tomorrow. It shot up so rapidly. It went up more than 100% within 2 months. The last traded price was 72 sen, Koon Yew Yin
Learn the logic of investment...let us start with a very basic investment mah...!!
Suppose ur co give u Rm 1000k to put in fixed deposits to get min 5% pa...but u r lucky...there is an offer u put into 3 yrs bond yielding 8% pa loh....!! So the company pays u a good bonus bcos ur outperformance loh..!!
But in 2019, ur bond mature & now the nearest best interest, u can get 3%pa...Even u know the benchmark is 5% pa , u have no choice to put into 3% pa fixed deposits instead of zero return,
Do u go around to tell ur boss, how good u r 3 yrs ago that u put into bond 8% pa and u still have outperformance 5% pa basing on 3 yrs ago performance and thus u deserve to be rewarded performance bonus this yr eventhough u achieve 3% pa ??
YES u can try loh...!! But Ur Boss will tell u to fuck off loh...!!
This is the precisely the scenario how longterm investor misleading themselves loh...!!
Posted by stockraider > Feb 1, 2019 01:51 PM | Report Abuse X
The mainpoint...is Growth investor has mislead the public investor...by not refering to yearly return...but they used aggregrate average return like NESTLE of 25% pa loh....!!
So if nestle is not performing this yr....they will say...the average return 20 bagger over 20 yrs...but that this yr Nestle may even give negative return loh...!!
Raider diff...Measure return...yearly mark to market mah...not confusing loh....!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-12 08:05 | Report Abuse
My Golden Rule of Investing: Companies that grow revenues and earnings will see share prices grow over time.