Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-11 12:48 |

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Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-11 16:02 | Report Abuse

Market hot. Come join us party lah

Don't be scare. Still cheap

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-11 16:29 | Report Abuse

should have buy last month.

everything was on fire sale.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-11 19:25 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-11 20:03 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-12 07:41 | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,13642.msg1562749.html#msg1562749


Guan Chong

Bought in 2010. GC was growing revenues, earnings, generating FCF +++ and giving dividends every quarter. Yet, it was still neglected by the investors.

Sold 40% in April 2011 to redeem my initial capital. Price had risen from 1.22 in Dec 2010 to 2.41 in April 2011 (+98% rise in price).

Sold all my shares in Feb 2013.



Review:

Company in a gruesome business.
Turnaround noted but not sustained for long.
Undervalued for a while.
Such stocks are not for buy and hold.
Buy low, sell high.
Very profitable play.
But to build great wealth, you need to employ Buffett's strategy.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 06:01 |

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Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-13 06:14 | Report Abuse

Really ? Please provide figures to substantiate

-------


4. Capital intensive

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-01-13 06:26 | Report Abuse

that's easy.

Current estimates for new plant put a first class refinery at USD93,000 / Barrel per day.

to upgrade old third grade refineries to current status technology will cost between USD50,000 - USD80,000 / Barrel per day.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-13 06:33 | Report Abuse

Yes They need to spend some money to upgrade

But if you look back past few years capex, it is actually not excessive

High capex companies are London biscuits, mflour, Engtex etc

Hengyuan 's capex per annum is for maintenance. Only once in blue moon they invest big, and that is usually for good reason (to upgrade or add new capacity)

I consider it a normal company

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-13 06:34 | Report Abuse

Theory no use

Check the past few years figures

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-01-13 06:38 | Report Abuse

pat pat

Good Boy!

thats makes a lot of sense, you are so Good!

Excellent! The Best!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-13 06:40 | Report Abuse

Getting emotional again ?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 07:53 | Report Abuse

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 16:56 | Report Abuse

« on: October 04, 2010, 07:41:00 AM »
Quote
Company E

Income Statement
ttm
Revenue 444.3m
Net Profit 73.9m
Basic EPS 35.6 sen (207.448m ordinary shares)
Diluted EPS 28.3 sen (261.575m issued and issuable ordinary shares)


Balance Sheet
Cash 47.6m
Total Asset 392.9m
Total Equity 219.15m
LTD 51.78m
STD 22.3m
NTA 1.04


Cash Flow
CFO 42.5m
CFI 5.1m
CFO-CFI 37.4m

----

D/E 12.09%
Finance Costs 5.4m
Interest Cover > 10X

Net Profit Margin 16.03%
ROA 18.8%
ROE 33.7%
ROCE 30.1%


At recent price of 2.58 per share:

Market cap: 674.9m (based on 261.575m shares)
ttm-P/E (using diluted EPS): 9.12
P/B 2.48
DY 0.7%


A small and fast growing glove company amongst the giants, trading at PE < 10.






Was this stock undervalued at a glance?
Balance sheet strong
Fast growing, low PE

Satisfied most of the points in Graham's check-list for undervalued companies.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 16:57 | Report Abuse

Company E was eventually taken private and delisted.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 17:07 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 17:10 | Report Abuse

My blunders:

Past

Present

Future



Mistakes there are

Do not gloss over them

Public postmortems do not reduce the number of mistakes

However, hopefully, one is less likely to repeat them.

Believing we are master of universe will lead to disaster.

By making fun of oneself, keeps it real.

Besides keeping ego in check.

Also, giving others bragging rights, if they wish to.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 17:12 | Report Abuse

For the last 20++ years, I have been investing regularly into the stock market.

There was not a single day when I was 100% in cash.

If you are frightened out of your stocks or portfolio due to a falling market, you are not an investor.

Stay clear of the stock market.

For those who wish to be in the market building wealth for the long term, they should be prepared for the situation, though uncommon, when the total quotation all values of their portfolio fall by half.

This is not the same as the intrinsic values of the stock or portfolio.







In 1997, my portfolio got decimated but recovered when market rebounded.


In 2008, my portfolio got decimated again, but recovered when market rebounded.


I did not sell the core holdings in my portfolio.


Lucky my stocks were high quality great companies stocks.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 17:18 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 17:20 | Report Abuse

If investors could predict the future direction of the market, they would certainly not choose to be value investors all the time.

Indeed, when securities prices are steadily increasing, a value approach is usually a handicap; out- of-favor securities tend to rise less than the public's favorites.

When the market becomes fully valued on its way to being overvalued, value investors again fare poorly because they sell too soon.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-13 17:20 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-14 21:31 | Report Abuse

REITS

In general, the yields from REITS are not exciting.
Property investments generally give rental yields in the region of 6%.
The expenses and costs of managing the REITS company can generally be around 2% (about 1/3 or the rental income),
Those with small amount of money who wish to be in property may look to the safety of REITS for diversification and professional management, knowing that the income derived is not going to be fantastic.
Those with a lot more money should look into buying their own property outright and pocket all the rental income with lesser costs.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-14 21:32 | Report Abuse

A doubling of a share price of $1 to $2 equates to a gain of 100%. Another doubling of the share price from $2 to $4 equates to a gain of 300%. Doubling again from $4 to $8, gives a gain of 700%.

Having a 10 bagger in your portfolio equates to a gain 900%. That means the share have at least doubled more than 3x from its initial share price, thus, 2 x 2 x 2 x ... .

It is therefore not surprising that a 10 bagger is a rarity over a short investing time frame. Moreover, a 10 bagger over a 10 year investing period (1999 - 2009) is a rare event in KLSE from my observation. Although it is possible over a very long time frame, many investors would have sold off the stocks to capture the gains much earlier.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-14 21:37 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-14 21:38 | Report Abuse

Often quoted: 90% of people lose money in the stock market. (If this were to be true, the stock market is a very dangerous for the average not so knowledgeable guys.)

The stock market exists to transfer money from the not so knowledgeable to those who are knowledgeable.

Those who are truly investors, choosing carefully the companies they own,and thinking themselves as part-owners of a big business, they should do well over the LONG TERM. In the short term, a stock market is a voting machine and in the long-term, it is a weighing machine.

Margin trading is obviously dangerous for the majority of those who are in the market. The 90% who are losers in the stock market will be even more impoverished should they use margin.

Well, among the 10% who are winners, some may choose to use margin. Even then, during a black swan event, some of them discovered that they too were stopped out of the stock market.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-14 21:43 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-14 21:57 |

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Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-14 22:49 | Report Abuse

I look back at last 40 years of stock market, the best approach, without doubt is this.......

fabien, do what ever u want....if it works for u fine....

but all these talk about intrinsic value, blah blah blah....can work or not?

I find that too cliche, too common, too many factors....no winning edge.

nothing wrong with regular reviews.....but better is like long number from QL forum, every time he reviews, he still likes his stocks....9 years already. So well chosen, so carefully chosen, 9 years don't need change.....That is mark of excellence. 10 baggers still keeping...the guy learns to say NO to others.

.only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....


I am a trader with very high portfolio turnover....I am not like that. I can only talk, I cannot do....I am a high turnover guy, luckily I am making money too.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-14 22:53 | Report Abuse

If a guy has the attitude that 95% of the stocks in the stock market are rubbish.....I think he is already a winner....next is to actually buy some stocks from the 5%.......no point being skeptical and don't buy at all.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-15 08:08 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 14, 2019 10:49 PM | Report Abuse

I look back at last 40 years of stock market, the best approach, without doubt is this.......

fabien, do what ever u want....if it works for u fine....

but all these talk about intrinsic value, blah blah blah....can work or not?

I find that too cliche, too common, too many factors....no winning edge.

nothing wrong with regular reviews.....but better is like long number from QL forum, every time he reviews, he still likes his stocks....9 years already. So well chosen, so carefully chosen, 9 years don't need change.....That is mark of excellence. 10 baggers still keeping...the guy learns to say NO to others.

.only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....


I am a trader with very high portfolio turnover....I am not like that. I can only talk, I cannot do....I am a high turnover guy, luckily I am making money too.....
>>>>



The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!.

***Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-15 23:39 | Report Abuse

The key to successful value investing is buying assets when the perceived risk is greater than the real risk. It’s equally important to avoid assets when the perceived risk is less that the real risk. No investor will be correct 100% of the time. However, your research and analysis of perceived risk vs. real risk is a crucial step to determine your asset allocation and individual asset purchases.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-15 23:43 | Report Abuse

After selling a share at a certain price, when can we say we have made a profit from the sale?

For those who are long term invested into stocks, what do they do with the cash from the sale?




1. By selling a share at a certain price, have I made a profit?

Yes, since I bought the stock at a lower price in the past.

No, since I bought the stock at a higher price in the past.


2. What would you do with the cash from the sale?

I am out of the market, forever. In that case, you would have realised a gain or a loss, which is definite.

I am in the market for the long run. I would have to reinvest this cash into another stock or the same stock.


3. When would you have realised a gain, after selling a stock, if you were to be in the market for the long term?

I would have realised a gain, IF I am able to buy the same stock back at a lower price than I sold.

I would have realised a loss, IF I were to buy the same stock back at a higher price than I sold.

I would have also to take into account the dividends I did not receive (if any) while I was holding cash and out of the stock for that period.


4. Can you predict the short term volatility of the share prices of your stock?

I believe I cannot. Those who can, are either having uncanny abilities or are lying.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 00:40 | Report Abuse

That day I did a quick calculation of your portfolio return. Over five years, it generated capital gain of 80%. Plus the dividend of let's say 20%, you probably have 100% over five years. Translates into 15% per annum

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 01:02 | Report Abuse

But the problem is that this is achieved through stretched valuation with Nestle at 50 times PER, hartalega and Top glove at 30 something times PER

by entering your next five years at such lofty valuation , what is the chance that you can achieve similar level of return ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 01:03 | Report Abuse

We are just two weeks into the new year, hartalega and TOP gloves has already corrected by quite a lot. During the past five years, aided by weak RM that boost profitability , the gloves stocks enjoy PE multiple expansion. Going forward, they can only rely on earning growth. If earnings momentum weakens (let's say due to stronger RM) , will the stocks continue to deliver the kind of return that you enjoyed from 2014 to 2018 ?

What about Nestle ? Can its PE multiple expand another round to reach 100 times ?

The way I see it, your portfolio might not be as defensive as you think it is

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 01:05 | Report Abuse

Do not get the misconception that value investment cannot get good comparable return like growth stock QL and scientex loh...!!

If u r a value investor who have bought insas in 2009 at rm 0.20 and sold it in 2014 for rm 1.20, u also can get a 6 bagger return over 5 yrs which is comparable to the return of ql or scientex mah...!!

In fact in 2014, if u look in the chart of insas it is like QL chart today mah....!!
So don be too happy...this QL current good performance could be similiar to insas good performance in 2014 loh...!!

As for raider of course did not benefit with a 6 bagger return on insas, but raider did benefit on 2.5 to 3.0 bagger return buying in 2012 at average of rm 0.42 and selling around rm 1.20...this is at least 2.5 baggers over period of 2 yrs mah...!!

Raider think can repeat a similiar feat on insas by buying rm 0.67 n perhaps selling at rm 1.34 loh...!!!

Insas financial has grown very much stronger in 2019 compare to 2014 the period that raider sold mah...!!

Value investor can achieve comparable result or return with growth stock investor mah....!!

The only think is Growth stock investor talk about their success whereas value investors are more low profile loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 01:13 | Report Abuse

so many shares I got no opinion...but Insas is easy one...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 01:14 | Report Abuse

Insas will rock when inari is hot

Past two years showed that is the case

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 01:14 | Report Abuse

...Insas will remain same company same price range 5 years later...

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 01:15 | Report Abuse

.and one more thing...no more PE 5 because shareholding in Inari less than 20% ( if SSlee is correct) starting this quarter...and no more profits on sales of Inari because the carrying cost ( cost plus eguity profits) has caught up....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 01:16 | Report Abuse

need 20% to have eguity accounting

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 01:17 | Report Abuse

its people...no one trusts them

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 01:24 | Report Abuse

Late already， Go to bed lah, your Wife waiting for you ...

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 07:47 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 07:54 | Report Abuse

The benefits of having a strategy in place will help ensure that your chosen tactics will achieve your goals in the most effective manner.

More importantly, having a strategy will ensure you don’t waste any time heading down the wrong tunnel. Wasting time is the costliest mistake that an investor can make.

There are no short cuts. Building wealth requires much time and patience.

So start as soon as possible and make sure you are on the right path. And if you find yourself in a hole (or a wrong path), stop digging!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 07:55 | Report Abuse

Please do not invest in anything until you have set some clear and measurable financial goals.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 08:01 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 08:06 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 10:17 |

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