Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 15:06 | Report Abuse

Whoever makes money in the market is the winner. Talk no use

(Warren Buffett , Omaha, Dec 2018)

Posted by pussycats > 2019-01-16 15:10 | Report Abuse

Show us who can make money in the market, that person is the real winner.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 15:25 | Report Abuse

How much did you make in the stock market in 2018?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 17:17 | Report Abuse

Talk no use

Must be able to win real battles

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 19:19 | Report Abuse

>>>Posted by 3iii > Jan 16, 2019 03:25 PM | Report Abuse X

How much did you make in the stock market in 2018?<<<<



< RM 1 million?


> RM 1 million?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 23:25 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/JTYeo/120158.jsp

How Not To Do Valuation
Author: Ricky Yeo | Publish date: Sat, 8 Apr 2017, 07:28 AM

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:17 | Report Abuse

What do all Berkshire Hathaway companies have in common?


They are profitable, safe and solid.

They are easy to understand with simple business models.

They produce plenty of cash flow to reinvest.

They are unique businesses with strong market positions and franchises.

They have solid, trustworthy management.

They were bought at reasonable prices.



We ordinary value investors can't assemble this kind of portfolio, but we can learn from what makes Berkshire Hathaway and its master tick.


http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/11/what-do-all-berkshire-hathaway.html

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:39 | Report Abuse

Have a little cash in reserve. “Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.”

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:43 | Report Abuse

No bluffing. No kidding.

“We don’t bluff. It’s not my style anyway. Over a lifetime, you’ll get a reputation for either bluffing or not bluffing. And therefore, I want it to be understood that I don’t do it.”

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:46 | Report Abuse

A line from a country song expresses our feeling about new ventures, turnarounds, or auction-like sales: ‘When the phone don’t ring, you’ll know it’s me.’”

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:49 | Report Abuse

The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows—discounted at an appropriate interest rate—that can be expected to occur during the lifetime of the asset.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 06:55 | Report Abuse

Simple mathematics and a logical brain are what you need in order to withstand the emotions of deal making, because emotions can get in the way of closing a deal.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:02 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:05 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:08 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:17 | Report Abuse

Stock prices rise and fall because of investors' perception of the future profitability of a company - in other words, on the stock's intrinsic value.

-----

In the 1940 edition of Security Analysis, Graham and Dodd used a now historic company as an example of one way intrinsic value is determined.

Graham: In 1922, prior to the boom in aviation securities, Wright Aeronautical Corporation stock was selling on the New York Stock Exchange at only $8, although it was paying a dividend of $1, had for some time been earning over $2 a share, and showed more than $8 per share in cash assets in the treasury. In this case analysis would readily have established that the intrinsic value of the issue was substantially above the market price.

Graham looked at Wright Aeronautical again in 1928. By then the company was selling at $280 per share. It was paying a $2 dividend, and earning $8 per share, and the net asset value was $50 per share. Wright was still a sound company, but future prospects in no way justified its market price. The company was, by Graham's reckoning, selling substantially above its intrinsic value.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:23 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:25 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 07:31 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 08:11 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 08:19 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 12:42 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 13:02 | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,74140.msg1455036.html#msg1455036

Screening for some shares using Benjamin Graham's checklist.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 13:06 | Report Abuse

At time of buying:
Value investing (of Benjamin Graham and Walter Schloss)
Margin of safety


After many years:
Intrinsic value increases over the years.
Growth investing (of Philip Fisher and Warren Buffett)



Never mind, both value and growth investings are joined at the hip. Both sides of the same coin.

In value investing, you buy a $1 value for the price of 50 sen.

In growth investing, you pay the price of $1 to own a future value of $2, with some degree of certainty.


Everyone is bias, using various interpretations. All are valid as long as you know what you are doing.






Investing is a plan - often a dull, boring, and almost mechanical process of getting rich.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 19:12 | Report Abuse

Living is about giving.

Spending money on other people (loved ones or charity) gives you the most amount of enjoyment.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 19:13 | Report Abuse

Investor makes money through the act of investing. Whatever you save and invest today, you will get back 10 times more in value in 20 years' time.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 19:16 | Report Abuse

A strategy, even a great one, doesn't implement itself.

Developing an investment strategy is one thing; being able to implement it is another.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 22:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-17 23:04 | Report Abuse

Greater Fool Theory

One of the assumptions of the discounted cash flow theory is that people are rational, that nobody would buy a business for more than its future discounted cash flows. Since a stock represents ownership in a company, this assumption applies to the stock market. But why, then, do stocks exhibit such volatile movements? It doesn't make sense for a stock's price to fluctuate so much when the intrinsic value isn't changing by the minute. The fact is that many people do not view stocks as a representation of discounted cash flows, but as trading vehicles. Who cares what the cash flows are if you can sell the stock to somebody else for more than what you paid for it? Cynics of this approach have labeled it the greater fool theory, since the profit on a trade is not determined by a company's value, but about speculating whether you can sell to some other investor (the fool). On the other hand, a trader would say that investors relying solely on fundamentals are leaving themselves at the mercy of the market instead of observing its trends and tendencies. This debate demonstrates the general difference between a technical and fundamental investor. A follower of technical analysis is guided not by value, but by the trends in the market often represented in charts. So, which is better: fundamental or technical? The answer is neither. As we mentioned in the introduction, every strategy has its own merits. In general, fundamental is thought of as a long-term strategy, while technical is used more for short-term strategies.

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-17 23:16 | Report Abuse

the one absolute winner in stock market are the market makers, the insiders and your remisier...bad or good times

only 10% or less really make money...

the real question is, how u can be part of that 10%

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 00:09 | Report Abuse

Share price should be no more than two-thirds of intrinsic worth.
Look at companies with P/E ratios at the lowest 10% of all equity securities.
PEG should be less than one.
Stock price should be no more than tangible book value.
There should be no more debt than equity (i.e. D/E ratio < 1).
Current assets should be two times current liabilities.
Dividend yield should be at least two-thirds of the long-term AAA bond yield.
Earnings growth should be at least 7% per annum compounded over the last 10 years.
==================

when u find one that pass all the test....it is like to be

1 Xinguan , a China hustle
2 in a sun set industry no one wants
3 unresolved shareholder issues
4 a severe bear market where plenty can be found
5 a dead stock, have not moved for years
6 credibility issues, CEO just charged for corruption

7....if u are talking about American large caps, it may have a bit of sense.....if u are talking about Bursa small caps, it is just rubbish for u to gamble.


conclusion...best to avoid unless u are king trader like me.


A good trader can trade any thing, good bad ugly also can......

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-18 00:19 | Report Abuse

see...qqq3 proclaim to be king trader

must be in the exclusive 10% group...congrats!

its all about consistency, discipline and patience

and luck

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 00:33 | Report Abuse

Share price should be no more than two-thirds of intrinsic worth.
Look at companies with P/E ratios at the lowest 10% of all equity securities.
PEG should be less than one.
Stock price should be no more than tangible book value.
There should be no more debt than equity (i.e. D/E ratio < 1).
Current assets should be two times current liabilities.
Dividend yield should be at least two-thirds of the long-term AAA bond yield.
Earnings growth should be at least 7% per annum compounded over the last 10 years.
===============


when people are charging out the door as in severe bear market, buy companies with name recognition.....

when people are charging through the door, as a bull market....just grow some balls....u don't need a check list, what u need are some balls., and adrenaline.

for a trader, the when is more important than the what and hows

for an investor, it is more important to check out the people and the business than to check out the boxes in the list above. U still need to check out the story......make sure u got a good story to tell, not which boxes have been ticked.

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-18 00:39 | Report Abuse

totally agree with qqq3...

example, mr tan boon seng...got balls

timing is key

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 00:40 | Report Abuse

The problem with bull market trading is,....u don't know when to stop.

Its like the casino, the casino is not scared u win, the casino is only scared u don't return.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 01:20 | Report Abuse

The problem with bull market trading is,....u don't know when to stop.

Its like the casino, the casino is not scared u win, the casino is only scared u don't return.

so how to solve this problem?

I don't know...The only thing I can think of is to change from a high turnover guy to a low turnover guy. But , your average buy and hold guy actually do far worse than me in 2018. so how?

tomorrow....tomorrow I give u a better solution.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 10:47 | Report Abuse

I promised I will give you the answer today.

This is the best advice I can give to my 20+ son.

Better to look at it as a life journey than a year by year accounting

Inspired by 3iii, long numbers guy and what I actually see around me....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/190121.jsp

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 12:50 | Report Abuse

think long term, harvest short term

that is me.....every time I think long term, my share usually go up almost immediately , within days.

every time I think short term, I lose money....shit.....

now, I smarter, think long term, delay my selling...I think I will do better since market not so hot......

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-18 16:00 | Report Abuse

Still dreaming of warren Buffett ah ? Come join us party

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-18 18:37 | Report Abuse

Finally:


MARKET FLUCTUATIONS OF INVESTOR'S PORTFOLIO
Note carefully what Graham is saying here.

It is not just possible, but probable, that most of the stocks you own will gain at least 50% from their lowest price and lose at least 33% ("equivalent one-third") from their highest price -regardless of which stocks you own or whether the market as a whole goes up or down.

If you can't live with that - or you think your portfolio is somehow magically exempt from it - then you are not yet entitled to call yourself an investor.




BENJAMIN GRAHAM'S 113 WISE WORDS
The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 18:50 | Report Abuse

This Ben Graham wise comment below is applicable to margin of safety stock like insas share price rm 0.70 with Nta rm 2.54 and nett cash Rm 0.70 per share with PE less than 10x and with decent div yield of about 3% pa loh..!!

Not applicable to overvalue stock like QL and Nestle, if u encounter big selloff on this type of counter u better cut n lari kuat kuat loh...bcos no margin of safety mah with Pe 50x, dividend yield of o.5% to 2.0% pa loh.....!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 18, 2019 06:38 PM | Report Abuse

Finally:

MARKET FLUCTUATIONS OF INVESTOR'S PORTFOLIO
Note carefully what Graham is saying here.

It is not just possible, but probable, that most of the stocks you own will gain at least 50% from their lowest price and lose at least 33% ("equivalent one-third") from their highest price -regardless of which stocks you own or whether the market as a whole goes up or down.

If you can't live with that - or you think your portfolio is somehow magically exempt from it - then you are not yet entitled to call yourself an investor.

BENJAMIN GRAHAM'S 113 WISE WORDS
The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-18 20:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 20:12 | Report Abuse

U ask yourself what type of earning power ??
When Nestle earnings yield is less than 2% pa based on PE above 50%...even u put monies in fixed deposits u get an earning power of 4% pa mah....!!

If u buy insas got earning power as Pe less than 10x...earning yield already exceed 10% pa mah...!!

Margin of Safety for those who are invested in Nestle, DLady, PBB, Petdag and HEIM, as explained and taught by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning power considerably above the going rate for bonds.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earning power over bond interest may aggregate 50% of the price paid.

This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety— which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 20:52 | Report Abuse

Nestle ROE very terror 120% pa with NTA of Rm 3.00 it generate earnings of Rm 3.60....but u need to buy nestle for Rm 140.00...so ur earnings yield is less than 2.6 % pa loh...!!

Now u compare nestle 2.6% pa v insas 14% pa, u ask who got more earnings power leh ??
Of course Insas mah...14& pa warnings yield even kindy student understand 14% pa is more than 2.6% pa mah..!

But growth proponent may argue, nestle have growth woh ??

Raider ask very logical question loh...how much growth & for how long nestle need to grow from 2.6% pa to catch up with insas yield of 14% pa even, if u assume insas has no growth at all loh...!!

The answer is very long and very uncertain when nestle can catch up mah...!!

An english old saying a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush mah...!!
Insas yield is already there with 14%pa...now u want to speculate nestle yield 2.6% pa can catch up, but when leh ??

Thus insas has definitely has higher margin of safety than nestle loh..!!

Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:31 PM | Report Abuse X

U need understand what is real earning power loh...!!

Insas ROE only 4% pa....but based on rm 2.54 u generating eps of Rm 0.10 pa loh....!!

so if u buy insas at rm 0.70 u r getting yield of 14% pa....this is what we call earning power loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:19 PM | Report Abuse X

U ask yourself what type of earning power ??
When Nestle earnings yield is less than 2% pa based on PE above 50%...even u put monies in fixed deposits u get an earning power of 4% pa mah....!!

If u buy insas got earning power as Pe less than 10x...earning yield already exceed 10% pa mah...!!

Margin of Safety for those who are invested in Nestle, DLady, PBB, Petdag and HEIM, as explained and taught by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning power considerably above the going rate for bonds.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earning power over bond interest may aggregate 50% of the price paid.

This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety— which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:10 | Report Abuse

Don’t keep the loss-making shares.

If the fundamentals of the stocks become poor, exit it immediately doesn’t wait for anything and never average it.

And stay invested if the fundamentals and future prospects are strong. Don’t be in rush to book small profit in such stocks.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:18 | Report Abuse

Prefer quality stocks than cheap stocks

A lot of investors buy stocks just because they are cheap without understanding that cheap is not always better.

Buffett learned from Charlie Munger that “it is far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price.”

Chances of losing money in cheap stocks are very high compared to investment in a fairly valued stock

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:20 | Report Abuse

Stay away from hot stocks

Some stocks always remain in news and grab the attention of many. Stay away from such stocks which are highly volatile.

Warren Buffett once said, “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is.
You can’t buy what is popular and do well."