>> Posted by lazycat > Jan 15, 2019 10:54 PM | Report Abuse
i think if you invest nestle instead of ql in year 2009 , your return would be much higher now
I think not. How much of Nestle PE53 do you think is a measure of the name brand with retail investors versus it's ability to execute new business strategies. Also it is the most thinnest traded stock in Bursa 70% owned by parent company.
I mean, why would the investing crowd give QL a business with low dividend payout 50 pe? Are they insane? At least Nestle gives a growing consistent dividend to it's shareholders. Why reward ql share price up after poor performance in that may quarter?
I kid.
I see far far more growth triggers in QL future than in Nestle Malaysia.
Ricky top 2 position is by large Scientex And Aeoncr. Held for more than 5 years. One hell of a trap.
My top 4 are almost 80% of my portfolio. You seem to be under the impression that all good companies are of bad value. That its impossible to buy good companies at a cheap price. If you could see the topglove of today with high level of confidence 10 years ago, that price would have been damn cheap.
However, being a hater of value, you would argue that its not expensive enough and turn it down.
Kc top positions are not exactly pretty quantitatively only. If it was just numbers i can show him a full list of investments that are quantitatively better. Not so much qualitatively.
KC knows how to look at businesses.
Lets stop with the foolish comments about things you know little about.
==== Posted by Flintstones > Jan 15, 2019 10:05 PM | Report Abuse
Just look at long numbers guy business sense and compared it to somebody like kcchong. It is only when the tide goes out, you discover who is swimming naked. Over the years, our extrapolation master has only shared his extrapolation maths and nothing on business sense. I have reminded time and time again about kcchong's flawed method of looking at investments. And time and time again, he will quote his yesteryear's track record while ignoring the fact that he could only be lucky.
Give kcchong RM 1 million, he would take out his calculator and show you the maths why his RM 1 million will compound indefinitely.
Give long numbers guy RM 1 million, he would invest in a company with moat and tells you the competitive advantage of the underlying business.
Give Jon Choivo RM 1 million, he would invest in multiple value stocks while continue to write beautiful letter to shareholders every quarter.
Give Ricky RM 1 million, he would invest in value traps while sharing his financial theory.
Just because Ricky, kc and i don't share our research publicly (especially the recent ones), does not mean we don't know to identify businesses with economic moats or have special insight into them.
We are just not so keen on having our prices increase. After all, our companies aint exactly 50pe.
d by Choivo Capital > Jan 15, 2019 11:05 PM | Report Abuse
Ricky top 2 position is by large Scientex And Aeoncr. Held for more than 5 years. One hell of a trap. ========
not exactly a trap...In fact Scientex and AeonCr are my two favorite counters the last few years...my first recommendations in i3...Reasons...I like their strategies, their strategic management and strategic competence.....and Aeon Cr very funny share....the price drop for several years in a row while earnings keep improving and PE keep dropping....AeonCr shares only started recovering sometime in 2016......
You talk like you're so experienced, but you actually made nothing from market despite being in your sixties, with all your profits coming from front running kyy in 2017 with insider knowledge.
But isn't the inverse also true? If you discard 50 PE stocks just because it is expensive, wouldn't you miss almost all the FANG stocks? They have all at one point or another but very high pe levels.
Or in bursa case, You have 32% committed to RCECAP and 5% committed to aeoncredit. If this is true simply because of a valuation based simply on price/earnings ratio, wouldn't you have missed 10 years of value creation multiples?
But if you applied business sense in identifying the fallacy of lending money to the 40 bottom wage earners at very high rates of interest where if your lending pool becomes big enough you will definitely be doing subprime lending ( assuming government officers will always be able to pay off their high interest rate loans) with disastrous long term results.
Compare that with credit card lending to disposable income public who buy goods at aeon and top up with rm100 for a 2 year extended warranty. Free money. Very low risk.
Which company do you think deserves a high PE and shareholder confidence? I'd buy aeoncredit over RCECAP in an instant.
On an off side, as this also happened to me before. I believe lending money to financially uneducated people at very high interest rates is a sin and a horrible action.
This is a tax on the ignorant. Bullying and robbing ignorant people and turning them into slaves is detestable to me.
I don't invest in gaming, vice counters. And I feel that investing in companies that I realized is basically a government ah long in name is a horrible thing to do, turning people into slaves that work just to pay their debts.
You are correct. Just because its make very little sense quantitatively now, the future earnings could be so enormous that it would make paying up now make sense.
I'm just saying you reasoning on how enormous the future earning for QL will be in the next 10 years, is likely to be erroneous.
On RCECAP. Thanks for the question. I asked the same one. Here's where your facts are wrong.
Aeoncr lenders consist of more than 70% B40. Aeoncr rates is higher than RCECAP.
Having said that, i do consider Aeoncr is a great(not wonderful) business. However, rcecap is a pretty good business. Is the difference between a "pretty good" and "great but not wonderful business) worth paying roughly 70% more valuations wise?
Not for me, but i still like Aeoncr enough to buy some. I bought some presplit in 2016, held and topped up just a little in 2017 and 2018. Mainly because i was buying so much rcecap.
I consider the management of RCECAP and Aeoncr to be of similar abilities. However, unlike rcecap, aeoncr was not in the industry that got a collective slap in the face by BNM.
Aeoncr used to be cheap for the very same reason you stated above,
"But if you applied business sense in identifying the fallacy of lending money to the 40 bottom wage earners at very high rates of interest where if your lending pool becomes big enough you will definitely be doing subprime lending ( assuming government officers will always be able to pay off their high interest rate loans) with disastrous long term results.
Compare that with credit card lending to disposable income public who buy goods at aeon and top up with rm100 for a 2 year extended warranty. Free money. Very low risk. "
This is why i dont consider RCECAP or AEONCR is a wonderful business.
A wonderful business is one with an economic moat, and also the complete public backing. Where by the company succeeds by contributing to the net happiness of society and improves it.
People want these companies to make more money, because if they make more money, society is better off.
I can only think of 2 companies in bursa with this. Both of which i own. One of which you picked in your 2019 stock pick.
====== Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 15, 2019 11:38 PM | Report Abuse
On an off side, as this also happened to me before. I believe lending money to financially uneducated people at very high interest rates is a sin and a horrible action.
This is a tax on the ignorant. Bullying and robbing ignorant people and turning them into slaves is detestable to me.
I don't invest in gaming, vice counters. And I feel that investing in companies that I realized is basically a government ah long in name is a horrible thing to do, turning people into slaves that work just to pay their debts.
Hi lazycat, I reject all valuation of vice counters off hand, so I don't even waste my time in those.
Got Lotte olefin basically it's raw material cost it's tied down to oil prices, so if it stays down Lotte will always have good margins. I don't know if the plant maintenance is done yet and the capacity dropped because of it. But I'm sure if the capacity goes back to normal levels, your share price will recover due to the capacity and margins. Who doesn't like a nice dividend here and there
I can't comment much on chinwel, it feels like your usual pump and dump stock to me. Good earnings and profits but business is just not growing. Some more it falls in my penny stock bin, so I don't really know how to value those properly.
For mbmr, the last I did my projections, business wise in Malaysia long term it will only average around max 2.2 billion revenue with low margins. It's not a business that can scale abroad well nor can it compete with China speed and efficiency. I don't think it has good long term growth prospects worth holding.
Dear Mr. Philip, I almost fall off my seat reading your comment, quote. “qqq3 for a self proposed trader is also someone looks at business sense.” unquote.
Once I describe “You –Know-Who” as below: Dear fake accountant, I am very mean and cruel to you in order to be kind to all the i3 community by exposing you for what you are. You are a fake accountant, a fraudster, a backstabber, a bootlicker, an ass-kisser, a shameless manipulator and good for nothing low life parasite feeding newbie and even super-investor Mr. Koon with manipulated information for you owe self benefit. By exposing you and hitting at your conscience, I am trying to save the i3 community from your bad influence/evil and if possible save your soul/conscience too if you still have one inside you. Now I can say for sure your soul/conscience is beyond saving.
Dear JAKS investors, I am not against your interest as I myself might consider buying the warrant when it is listed if I can see value emerge after the next few quarters. (When the dust/noise had settled) I am against fake accountant for backstabbing JAKS investors when shares were promoted by him with "sailang" and margin finance which had trapped many investors chasing the shares to RM1.80+ and lost a fortune, but he himself made a "killing", again and again, and still has the gut to boast about it and talk cock in i3. Posted by qqq3 > Nov 2, 2018 01:43 AM | Report Abuse kc u fail to understand, Jaks and Sendai are the 2 counters I made the most money...and why not? when I know the chong ker.....and I have the killer instinct..........
Since you like reading can you please read some of the comments, Blogs of, “You-Know-Who” and use your business sense and tell me am I right to describe “You-Know-Who” as above?
sslee...I so powerful one meh? Even KYY follows what I say?
wished I am so powerful....but I just a small time trader.....as for making money in Sendai and Jaks...well, I look at the situation, I can trade I trade, I cannot trade I don't trade...simple as that....
I have a feeling you might have followed kyy into his investment into JAKS and have been burnt thereafter.
But to be honest there is never anyone to blame but ourselves. We trusted the sifus based on word alone and lost money based on our preconceived notions of fairness.
Trust me, I know exactly how you feel. Teh soon seng was my kyy idol during my early days, and I was full of anger and upset feelings when I lost 120k in the stock market. In the 90s that was a huge sum.
But emotion is the only component in stock picking that is unnecessary.
There is always something to learn.
Even from qqq and kyy.
My advice?
Item 1 in my buku 555 back then 1. Never trust other people to choose your stocks for you. Always follow your own stock.
Jonathan Choi Yi Kit is being rude again. To qqq3. Why stop be rude to Icon already? Why? Can explain? In fact you seem strongly PLP Icon nowadays. I wonder why...
when I was writing about sailang and margin and all, I have in mind big hitters like KYY and philip here.....nothing about Jaks or sendai. surely, to make a real difference, one has to be focused like a laser....that time, there was no philip as example, only got KYY as example.......
all CEOs margin and sailang.....why must investors be any different?
even value investors hero, that Wallen the Bufalo sailang and borrowed from friends and relatives into a bankrupt textile company...that is how he started his career.
Jonathan Choi Yi Kit, why talk experience like you have a lot. You how many years in stock market? How may bull and bear you seen? Oh forgot you have seen so many - from your books.
You dare scold other people lose money. Got look mirror? Last year you made money? Pot calling kettle black. At least qqq3 not taking people’s money to invest and rape the investor off profit if any. 60% of profit you take. 60%! You are a CON MAN
—————
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 15, 2019 11:28 PM | Report Abuse
qqq3, i dont think you should talk so much.
You talk like you're so experienced, but you actually made nothing from market despite being in your sixties, with all your profits coming from front running kyy in 2017 with insider knowledge.
Do not get the misconception that value investment cannot get good comparable return like growth stock QL and scientex loh...!!
If u r a value investor who have bought insas in 2009 at rm 0.20 and sold it in 2014 for rm 1.20, u also can get a 6 bagger return over 5 yrs which is comparable to the return of ql or scientex mah...!!
In fact in 2014, if u look in the chart of insas it is like QL chart today mah....!! So don be too happy...this QL current good performance could be similiar to insas good performance in 2014 loh...!!
As for raider of course did not benefit with a 6 bagger return on insas, but raider did benefit on 2.5 to 3.0 bagger return buying in 2012 at average of rm 0.42 and selling around rm 1.20...this is at least 2.5 baggers over period of 2 yrs mah...!!
Raider think can repeat a similiar feat on insas by buying rm 0.67 n perhaps selling at rm 1.34 loh...!!!
Insas financial has grown very much stronger in 2019 compare to 2014 the period that raider sold mah...!!
Value investor can achieve comparable result or return with growth stock investor mah....!!
The only think is Growth stock investor talk about their success whereas value investors are more low profile loh...!!
Hi lazycat, for pentamaster, I have just finished reading and compared with comps like vitrox, keyence, Teledyne and others.
I am very very worried. I may be in error, but I find the company very very weird. Here is what I think:
1. Why is a Malaysian company moving all of its assets and business into a investment holding company in the Cayman islands? And it is being audited by Grant Thornton, which I don't like at all. They used to use the big 4, now no longer 2. The business prospects are very impressive, even more than Vitrox, for a company that doesn't even have any tax breaks incentives.vitrox had a ten year free tax incentive from mida. 3. Why did they list also in Hong Kong share market? For what purpose this PIL? 4. For a company that does 400 million in equipment sales, I couldn't download or read a single datasheet or catalogue from it's main website. I couldn't even find a single product code number to compare with other products in the market. 5. It seems more a company interested in doing financial exercises than in growing shareholder wealth with good products. 6. Why are they doing project management for a development project?
I find this company to be very very weird. I may be wildly wrong. It may be a brilliant trailblazer.
Be very careful if you have real money invested in this company.
Maybe Conman Choivo father pass money to relatives ask them support the son. Where else Conman Choivo can find client? Terribly unpopular in ex company BDO. Cannot promote outside job to colleague at Plus Highway. Limited number of friends. Where to find client?
Conman Choivo, try write another open letter ask KYY for business?
—————
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 12:52 AM | Report Abuse
choi's england good...I guess can get some money from relatives to establish his career.....people pity him , I guess.
Dear Phillip, thank you once again for such an excellent article. I enjoyed reading them very much and wished you and Choivo could one day team up to write an investment book solely on companies listed in bursa. Or like another poster suggesting writing a blog. Both of you are very articulate in your writing and investment analysis that it causes me to pause, think and see investments from many different perspectives. In short both of your writings help me and msian retail investors tremendously.
Based on raider assessment people like jon chivo and sslee are the upcoming great value investor loh...!!
I m very impress with sslee ability to go into detail especially complicated stock like insas & his ability to pinpoint the area of value loh...!!
In fact he has a better understanding of insas than raider loh! Yes sslee has made some errors following kyy but raider know he has learn his lesson n pay the price. He is now a very solid investor loh...!!
As for Jon chivo, he is hardworking & good in analysing companies and he can pinpoint value loh....! The only thing raider is concern for him, is that he is still young n want to go into investment full time in investment.
Raider advice is don quit ur job so fast ,work another 5 yrs gather ur capital at the sametime decide your career strategically, whether u want to be a ceo of an investment bank, fund manager or a fulltime investor managing ur own monies plus other people monies mah...!!
Please ensure u achieve at least say rm 2.0 million own monies b4 u quit n tried it out on your own loh...!! If raider quit investment & retire & by that time jon chivo has started his investment business, raider will not mind to put say rm 200k for jon to manage loh..!!
Raider, This is called timing the market. How do you know at what price to buy and sell? If like this kind of investing, you always Chun Chun right timing buy low sell high? Never lose money? Buy any stock also Chun chun? If you always 100% Chun Chun number like Calvin tan sure win why even bother buy stocks? Just go and buy Toto 6/47 sure Chun Chun kena!
I don't know how to invest like this. I always buy high, can never get it right every time. But what I can do is find the right stock, and follow up. Every quarter I top up. After salary top up. After company bonus I top up. After dividend in I top up. After commission in I top up. I can top up from 200k to 2 million shares in 10 years in ONE stock is purely on understanding the business growth prospects. I buy at the end of every quarter report at a price I think is fair.
This is real investing. Not some made up magic chart mirror.
You can do meh? Buy 200k INSAS low, sell high. But 500k INSAS low sell high. Buy 1 million low sell high. Is that even a feasible method? Your balls made of platinum?
Come on lah,
I've tried it your way. It doesn't work. Kyy does it your way. Look where it went in the end.
I've been in the market for almost 20 years.
I no longer do stupid, especially when I'm never lucky.
>>>>>>Do not get the misconception that value investment cannot get goocomparable return like growth stock QL and scientex loh...!!
If u r a value investor who have bought insas in 2009 at rm 0.20 and sold it in 2014 for rm 1.20, u also can get a 6 bagger return over 5 yrs which is comparable to the return of ql or scientex mah...!!
In fact in 2014, if u look in the chart of insas it is like QL chart today mah....!! So don be too happy...this QL current good performance could be similiar to insas good performance in 2014 loh...!!
As for raider of course did not benefit with a 6 bagger return on insas, but raider did benefit on 2.5 to 3.0 bagger return buying in 2012 at average of rm 0.42 and selling around rm 1.20...this is at least 2.5 baggers over period of 2 yrs mah...!!
Raider think can repeat a similiar feat on insas by buying rm 0.67 n perhaps selling at rm 1.34 loh...!!!
Now I'm sure there are many ways to skin a cat, and I'm sure stockraider sifu has made many millions with his value cigar butt investing methods. But actual application of value investing in NYSE and Bursa is very different. No close monitoring if SC here. A few big sindicates preying on water fish here buying penny stocks.
Our retail investors here is just so raw and new, one article from kyy and Calvin tan, every rookie like sslee rushes in to buy big.
With half assed ideas on the real meaning of intrinsic value and margin of safety, they get burnt over and over.
I don't need to recommend you to buy any stock. The stocks that I hold are all market leaders, expensive and have run up so high.
But to the rookie: I'm sure no one has ever asked you to buy things like QL, topglov, public bank, yinson. Why? They are boring and expensive. High PE. Why bother watching paint dry?
You always get recommendation to buy penny stocks from raider and Calvin, low PE high cash, disappointing long term results.
Please understand why. The game in bursa is so cowboy it's sad.
I'm already mid late 50s. I have nothing left to prove.
If I can do anything, it would be to give some insight to be investors on how to do proper investing.
Investing back in the older days without internet you had to call your remiser and trust him to put the shares purchase in for you.
Imagine now that you dont have a stock ticker. You don't have a financial report. And someone just went up the door to your house with a business proposal.
How do you go about it? You never ask how much it is worth? It's crazy asking someone how much they think it is worth selling for, is it a fair price etc.
You ask basic questions, 1. What are you selling 2. Who is buying 3. How do you make more to sell 4. Where can you find more buyers 5. How much are you selling your business to me 6. Why sell it to me 7. What problems do you find in the business 8. Who is your competitors 9. Who is the biggest competitor, what is he doing differently 10.Why are you better than your competitors
This is my 10 commandments to start the very beginning of every stock investing. Once you see satisfied with these answers.
Then you go to the fundamental analysis of financial reports etc.
Once you have decided to buy, then you go to the technical part of things.
All the sifus here, from stockraider to sslee, always seem to start the other way around.
Lazycat, it's been years since I used margin. I think I still have about 5 million in approved margin from QL. I think it's around 1.25% if above 1 million with share collateral/fixed deposit
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