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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Sslee
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Posted by Sslee > 2021-12-17 18:05 | Report Abuse
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview#1
Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged almost 10 percent a year, and more than 800 million people have been lifted out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education, and other services over the same period.
China’s high growth based on resource-intensive manufacturing, exports, and low-paid labor has largely reached its limits and has led to economic, social, and environmental imbalances. Reducing these imbalances requires shifts in the structure of the economy from low-end manufacturing to higher-end manufacturing and services, and from investment to consumption.
Over the past few years, growth has moderated in the face of structural constraints, including declining labor force growth, diminishing returns to investment, and slowing productivity. The challenge going forward is to find new drivers of growth while addressing the social and environmental legacies of China’s previous development path.
Following real GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2020, China’s economy is projected to grow by 8.5 percent in 2021, largely driven by base effects. The growth momentum is slowing reflecting the lagged impact of policy and macroprudential tightening, floods and the recent Delta outbreak. Although lingering tighter restrictions and cautious sentiment due to the recent Delta outbreaks will weigh on the consumption recovery, its impact is expected to be largely offset by robust foreign demand and moderate policy support in the latter half of the year. Near-term risks have shifted to the downside with the key risk being recurring outbreaks led by more transmissible COVID-19 variants which could lead to a significant economic disruption. Over the medium term, China’s economy is facing structural headwinds given adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution. These challenges require attention, with short-term macroeconomic policies and structural reforms aimed at reinvigorating the shift to more balanced high-quality growth.
The government recently highlighted achieving common prosperity as a key economic objective, reinforcing signals of a possible shift in policy priorities towards tackling income inequality. Over the medium term, policies to tackle high inequality through more progressive taxation and a strengthened social protection system will ensure lasting poverty reduction, a larger middle class and help boost private consumption as a driver of growth.
Last Updated: Oct 12, 2021