Calvintaneng :yup their balanced sheet certainly have the reserves. If not 1:1 bonus at least a reward for the suffering shareholders either a share split plus a bonus issue of 1 for 2 held
According to industry observers, the potential beneficiaries include Sime Darby Plantation Bhd, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd, United Plantations Bhd, Carotino Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Johor-based JC Chang Group and Harvist by Profes Lipid Sdn Bhd.
even thought CPO is at super high but none of the plantation counter post super profits hopefully this coming MAY reporting seasons they can gives us suprise
Those local analysts from investment banks are analysts working from office . They are not people who indulge or work in the industry and hence don't really know much.
OTHERS PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF THE REMAINING 40.0% EQUITY INTEREST NOT ALREADY HELD BY SOPB IN SOP PLANTATIONS (SABAJU) SDN. BHD. (SOP SABAJU) FROM SHIN YANG HOLDING SDN. BHD. FOR A TOTAL CASH CONSIDERATION OF RM45.880 MILLION (PROPOSED ACQUISITION)
Sarawak Oil Palm (SOP MK) Sells More In The Spot Market; Benefits From High CPO Prices SOP has submitted relevant documentation to recruit foreign workers to overcome the current labour shortage. As the only biodiesel supplier in the Sarawak region, SOP has completed its biodiesel capacity expansion in expectation of full implementation of the B20 biodiesel programme in Malaysia. As a pure Malaysia plantation player, SOP has stopped forward selling so it will benefit from the high CPO prices. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM4.75. WHAT’S NEW • Is the labour shortage over? Sarawak Oil Palm (SOP) has submitted relevant documentation to the authorities to recruit foreign workers. Besides, incentives have been given to the existing labour to retain them. According to our channel checks, plantation companies are allowed to bring back labour with the approval of the relevant authorities. All COVID-19-related expenses for the labour have to be borne by SOP (estimated cost is RM2m-3m for 2021). SOP said if the process to recruit labour is approved, this would reduce the labour shortage from 30% to below 20%. • Biodiesel capacity expansion. SOP is the only biodiesel supplier in the Sarawak region. Most of Malaysia’s biodiesel is B10 biodiesel, and B20 biodiesel is available only in certain regions as the B20 biodiesel programme has been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. SOP expanded its biodiesel capacity in 2020 from 300,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes with the expectation of full implementation of the B20 biodiesel programme in Malaysia. With the new capacity, SOP’s biodiesel plant utilisation rate is at 40-50% (before expansion the utilisation rate was 100% with full supply going for local blending). • Acquisition of remaining 40% equity in SOP Sabaju. SOP has entered into a conditional share sale agreement with Shin Yang Holding for the proposed acquisition with RM45.88m cash, or RM42,000/planted ha. We deem that this is fair compared with earlier transactions in the region. The proposed acquisition is expected to improve SOP’s age profile as SOP Plantations (Sabaju) - SOP Sabaju - consists of young mature oil palms aged 11 years. The purchase consideration will be funded internally, accounting for only about 7% of its total cash. The proposed acquisition is expected to be completed in 2Q21.
• 2021 outlook − We expect SOP earnings to increase 13% yoy for 2021 on the back of: a) Upstream operation continuing to benefit… Management guided FFB production for 2021 at 1.45m tonnes (7% yoy FFB production growth), taking into consideration the labour shortage. Assuming SOP is able to bring in more foreign workers this year, there will be more upside in its FFB production. But we remain conservative factoring in 4% yoy FFB production growth for 2021. We expect higher yoy earnings from the upstream operation, leveraging on high palm oil product prices. Besides, SOP guided that the group had stopped forward sales and there is some carry forward sales volume from late-20 (<25% of 2020 total production) which will be committed in 2021. b) …but partially mitigated by higher cost of production. The cost of production is expected to be higher yoy in 2021 mainly due to harvesting costs and additional incentives to retain workers. Besides, fertiliser costs have increased significantly due to the rising prices of raw materials. Management guided that SOP managed to secure its 1H volume where prices were flat yoy, but 2H21 fertiliser prices should be higher yoy. c) Lower margins for downstream operations. We expect lower downstream margins for 2021, mainly due to higher feedstock prices. We expect the 1H21 performance to be satisfactory supported by SOP’s strategy in terms of timeliness of delivery of products. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK • Maintain earnings forecast. We maintain our earnings forecasts for 2021-23F at RM244m, RM163m and RM175m respectively. • Assuming CPO price assumption of RM3,500/tonne, SOP’s earnings will increase by 32%. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION • Maintain BUY with a target price of RM4.75, based on 11x 2021F PE, or -1SD of the stock’s five-year mean. SHARE PRICE CATALYST • Higher-than-expected CPO prices. • Higher-than-expected FFB production and yield.
Time to be a little bit more contraian in view of mkt at reasonable high level mah!
Warren buffet says inflation is definitely coming in view of low interest interest and speculative sign such as bitcoin, rubbish stock price run up sky high and unrealistic stock valuation & expectation and now raw commodities price run up mah!
Bill Gates already bought alot of farmland at low in preparation & in anticipation for the coming armmagedoom coming mah! Why would one the world tech best richest owner switch alot of his investment into farmland, this bcos farmland or value real estate if it is bought at reasonable low price, u cannot go wrong over longterm bcos the availability of land is limited, u cannot manufacture land like bitcoin mah!
Coming back to msia the equivalent to farmland is oil plantation, u still can get it real cheap & it is paying u reasonably good dividend loh...this is the best defensive & offensive play like bill gates and warren buffet had highlighted mah!
As calvin sifu said timber is at record price & palmoil at record price surely some optimism will spillover to plantation & timber share price mah!
But this up 1 to 2 sen is chicken feed mah, why up so little leh ??
Timber & palmoil share r suffering from lack of production mah and also huge impairment losses on its assets mah & previous falling share price mah! Thus they are jittery on recovery of palmoil & timber share loh!! They want to see actual profit b4 jump in loh!! That means if u base on profit...as indicator that means the share price will be lagging loh!
Then why promote Wtk leh ?? 1. The owner , directors and insiders already accumulating quietly without fanfare mah! 2. The palmoil & timber production volume of wtk, mhc, jtiasa, boustead, ijm plant already creeping up loh...this is further support by the record price of its commodities. Just imagine u have higher prices & higher volume....that will be a very important sign of higher big profit coming mah! 3. The share price already corrected over 3 yrs of downtrend previously, when there is a big shakeout of all the weak holders...u can only grow more optimistic as time past by loh! 4. Wtk is sitting on some prime land that invested at a very low cost near major town & city, they are good development mah! 5. With all the liquidity & quantitative easing & low interest rate environment, u can see big inflation will be coming loh...!! Wtk in commodities business plus very big cheap land bank is a very good inflation protector mah!
Based on the above i think wtk , jayatiasa & ijmplant is the best pick to make profit & this is concur by sifu calvin findings also mah!
SOP in a sweet spot with their oil plan plantings plus forestry . the price breakout needs to be sustain and sweetened with a special dividend or bonus shares { which SOP has the reserve }
I think it is ok to retain 50% for investment and pay 50% as dividend especially the cashflow in the next 2 financial years is going to be very strong. 6 sen is only 1.5% dividend yield ! I have no respect for leadership and the BOD who don't look after the interest of the general investing public.
many local analysts know nothing about CPO market dynamic and yet making forecast from thin air. Since months ago they predicted CPO to plunge from March /Apr due to increasing production. Instead of plunging CPO is surging . They still refuse to eat their humble pie and continue to cast doubt on the strength of CPO and continue to work with the media to highlight only the negatives. Seriously lack of professionalism!
SBO , Corn , Wheat all hitting new high .Biden expected to announce additional pro farmers policy. Mid west important battle ground betw GOP and democrats. CPO tailing other soft oils
Failing to reward shareholders with decent dividend,. will SOP reward shareholders with bonus share by capitalizing the huge reserve? Minorities who attend the AGm must press on this issue .
This group of armchair analyst's are still sticking to their 2021 pricing forecast of 2,800 per tonne { citing their own reasons.} First 5 months {Year 2021}average traded price have already surpassed their price assumption by 30%-40% depending on what angle you are looking. Jan {$3,748} Feb{$3,895} Mar{$4,041} April {$4,220} May { 4,500 - 4,800} Corn and SBO is on solid uptrend. US Corn per bushel is at 7.00 { Whereas China domestic price is at 10.00} China will continue to up their corn purchases. This is just a clear example where commodities is heading whether it translate into the stock Prices? Is anybody guess
The analysts are simply in denial mode and lack of professionalism! The SBo premium is growing wider against Palm oil . That means Palm oil remain very competitive at today's level. Unless the analysts expect soya to plunge , Cpo well above $4,000 is sustainable for this year and perhaps even next 2 years . Are the analysts missing this point totally?
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jonathan Keung
4,436 posts
Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2021-03-17 10:02 | Report Abuse
latest planters Qtr result showed higher profit upside earnings. treble in some cases