Palm oil is a wrong agricultural product. It is the number one enemy to environment. Continuous air pollution from open burning in plantation and forest fires elsewhere brought the pandemic to teach us a lesson.
CPO current physical price is $4,800 (May) . Dec 21 delivery per current trade in the derivative market is $3,900. How the hell the analysts expect CPO for May to Dec to trade at $2,361 to give rise to their full year price of $2,900? Unbelievable!
@DickyMe, oil Palm crop is the most efficient oil.crop producing many times more oil per acre of land than soya , corn, sunflower and other oil crops. Oil palms economic life is 25 years which means it green the environment and taking up CO2 uninterrupted in it's 26 years of economic life . Whereas , other oil crops are very short terms of few months and the ground is left bare after harvesting until next season . Don't fall victim so easily o the western propaganda.
Without being biased or one sided. Corn oil, SBO , sunflower , rapeseed oil all are produced and marketed by the US, western countries and other Europe countries .this category of soft oils in the 60-70's was the only choice for consumers { that until the arrival of processed palm oil} that is cheaper interns of pricing and efficiency. Western hold on the consumer was dismantle and faced a real challenge to their Monopoly. Now palm oil is the most exported and consume cooking oil in the world. this is exactly the reason why western back NGO are targeting palm oil but not their own Soyaoil , sunflower, rapeseed or corn oil. The scrutiny and criticism on palm oil is more a trade issue .
By looking at the CPO production for the past 6 years, it is obviously the decreasing trend was formed in 2020. The downtrend remains for first quarter 2021 with a reduction of 2% on the back of production quantity 14.55 million ton.
CPO production (Indonesia & Malaysia)
2020 - 70.8 million ton (-1.3%) 2019 - 71.7 million ton (+7.1%) 2018 - 66.9 million ton (+7.0%) 2017 - 62.5 million ton (+13.1%) 2016 - 55.3 million ton (+7.6%) 2015 - 51.4 million ton (+4.6%
Cpo prices { at some point of time will eventually retraced back some of the gains} and reflect the demand and supply of edible oils in the open market vs prices of other competing soft oils. Currently SBO {Rotterdam} is around USD 1,650, Indonesia CPO {FOB} is at USD 1,290 vs Malaysia CPO {FOB} at USD 1,270 per tonne. The price premium between SBO and CPO is big app USD 350-USD 380 per tonne. Whatever the price farmers in the {US mid West} is enjoying the boom in superbull run in commodities { corn, wheat, soya} Palm oil is not a market marker. Palm oil is just positioning itself following the lead in SBO. Mr Market knows best
@Kinuxin,. We don't need the analysts to overly emphasize that current high level of Cpo cannot sustain and will correct down when supply increase later. This is common knowledge for anyone and the historical data easily available can be referred to by anyone . What professional or 'expert' view they are offering? I think it is more important is to look at the annual ASP (average selling price) for next few years to make investment advise. Even if ASP for 2021 is $3,500 , plantation will make very healthy increase in earning and hence higher dividend . CPO 's ASP for 2009 to 2020 are estimated as below ; 2009. $2,400 2010. $2,800 2011. $3,350 2012. $2,900 2013. $2,400 2014. $2,350 2015. $2,150 2016. $ 2,700 2017. $2,800 2018. $2150 2019. $2,250 2020. $2,750 Anyone can go to look up for share prices and dividend payout of the private plantation company from 2009 to 2020 and try to relate the data. You will see today's share price is even lower than when ASP of CPO was $2,300-2,400 ! When CPO has achieved over $4,000 for 1st 5 months of 2021 and will lead to much higher ASP for the year , the sector doesn't deserve upgrade by the IB ? ? I have nothing more to say .
ESG is being misused by the certain group of people. When a sector is making good money then then market manipulators dish out ESG problems. Soon or later, every sector will be facing ESG issues.
Yesterday’s FCPO selling pressure again was capped within the ongoing support of MYR3,845 and the 61.8% FR level. Selling pressure appears to be moderating at aforementioned level as we expect a recovery soon.
Buying interest continued to pick up over the past six days and we expect the FCPO to rebound, leading to further recovery soon.
Mabel expect FCPO consolidation is about to end...Uptrend still intact...
For those who decided to run, please run and take shelter at the Plantation. Come and join us at the plantation. Weather is beautiful and CPO is doing great. It's a great opportunity to feed 8 billion people across the planet.
As long as CPO is trading above RM 3,000 we can expect windfall profits for the coming quarter.. Currently CPO prices is at its best..
Biofuel is a future. Like it or not when other edible oil is shortage due to high feed stock being cinsumed for biofuel...eventually peoples will hunt for palm oil
In today's StarBiz,. the headline article on plantations M&A is very interesting. In there , there is valuation of plantation brownfield estate by the industry expert Mr Chandran . Mr Chandran has the credentials to speak about this subject. On the other hand,. those IB analysts who only work from computer desktop in a cosy office tell you half baked story.
Hoe said Sarawak Oil Palms is guiding for RM220 million in capex for FY21, which comprises new refining capacity of 800 tonnes/day (to be completed in 3Q21) and extra 300 tonnes/day for its biodiesel plant expansion (completed by end-2020), on top of the usual upstream maintenance — she revised FY20-22 earnings forecasts by 4-13%. 7 Jan 2021 RHB...
Although FCPO is trading near the critical resistance, buying interest remained elevated, thanks to external boost from Soybean Oil. A stronger market structure was observed within a smaller timeframe, and we expect FCPO to test the upper resistance level ahead.
indonesia is having serious covid problem,less labors in estates , palm oil supply in critical low condition., could last for a long ,long time....palm oil price could stay above 4000 rm for some time......
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
DickyMe
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Posted by DickyMe > 2021-05-12 14:02 | Report Abuse
Palm oil is a wrong agricultural product. It is the number one enemy to environment.
Continuous air pollution from open burning in plantation and forest fires elsewhere brought the pandemic to teach us a lesson.