In my opinion, the previous Qs good results were mainly due to strong USD exch. rates at above Rm4.0, as nearly 60% of Prolexus revenues come from US market, plus 19% from EU market...
Last Q results dropped because of stronger ringgit, thus affecting most export orientated counters, their prices all declined, not just Prolexus prices.
In fact the major shareholders accumulated a substantial amount of Prolexus shares before the RI got approved, their buying prices are mostly between Rm2.10~2.30 during the price downtrend, so conspiracy seems very unlikely...
I think after the ex-RI, the Prolexus shares were under selling pressure bcos many holders sold their mother shares to raise more funds to subscribe the RI. Whereas the OR was also under selling pressure from OR holders who didn't wish to take up the RI, either due to bad market sentiments, lack of funds, or from traders who didn't want to invest for mid to long-term.
This should be very positive for export counters, especially Prolexus with 60% revenues from US market. Barring unforeseen surprises, stronger USD and better US consumer sentiments, both should help to increase Prolexus RM revenues and profits in the coming Q reports...
But profit compare q to q improved. Just to find reason behind Prolexus droping while Magni stays put. Probably Magni majority share held by directors.
Btw, us rate hike in last Dec did not bring benefit to exporting counters, bcos Asian currency including RM appreciated instead of the expected falling.
The following should be considered by Prolexus current and potential investors:
1. US consumers high spending is very favorable for consumer stock Prolexus which exports 60% of its products to US. 2. Furthermore, the rising US interest rates in the 2H-2016 should make USD even stronger vs RM (unless crude oil prices rebound strongly), which will bring in higher revenues and better profit margins to Prolexus in terms of RM. 3. The purpose of the ongoing rights issue is to raise capital to build two new factories to cater for higher demands from their existing clients, the new factory in Vietnam will increase the total production capacities by 30~40% initially. Their business is expanding rapidly since the last few years. It is a growth stock with good potential. 4. The new factory in Vietnam will take advantage of Vietnamese lower labour costs, cheaper land cost, and Vietnam's TPPA status will save them import duties for US market which will make their product pricing more competitive.
IMHO, the current drop in Prolexus prices is unjustified albeit in very thin traded volumes. This stock is not suitable for traders or contra players.
-- If post 20.June, mother's prices go down back to ~rm1.40, warrants maybe about rm0.55~0.65, -- If mother can maintain at ~rm1.50 level, then warrant prices maybe about rm0.70~0.75, -- If mother can go up back to ~rm1.60 level (TERP ex-price), then rm0.80~0.90 is quite possible.
I am expecting a better QoQ results in this coming Q3 report, if no major surprises, for 2 reasons:
(a) Stronger USD in Q3-2016 ($1 : Rm4.05, avg.) versus Q3-2015 ($1 : Rm3.63, avg.), or +11.5%, this should increase the Profit Margins of export counters, such as Prolexus with ~60% products exports to US Market, plus another ~20% exports to EU Market.
(b) Higher US Consumer Spending in the recent months, the April month has recorded the highest consumer spending since the 2009 Crisis. This should be quite positive on Prolexus revenues.
need to becareful with Prolexus Their factory located at Batu Pahat Johor
And nearby their factory , another textile factory named Ramatex started expanding their factory. The new factory is huge and direct compete with Prolexus since their customer base overlapping.
rizerlee's concern of oversupply with manufacturers expanding their production capacities is valid, and need to be considered before making any decisions to invest.
I think this is a question of "The Glass is Half-Full or Half-Empty"? In terms of Consumer Products, there are always competitions in a free market economy, especially for garment industry which do not need rocket science technology, or need very high entry capitals, or highly specialized-killed personnel, etc. When manufacturers such as Ramatex are also expanding, that means others beside Prolexus have the same forecast that a big market expansion is coming soon, so those with foresight would expand their capacities in order to capture a bigger slice of the big cake. This is a very plausible move, not just sit there and do nothing about it because of worries about more competitions and oversupply.
Another point on Prolexus' expansion plan, they have stated in their RI's Prospectus that their factories are currently running at full steam, operating at more than 90% capacity (technically, 90~95% is as good as Full Capacity, because of inevitable machinery downtimes and workers stoppage), and they are now facing growing demands from key customers as seen in the higher Consumer Spending, they must urgently expand their capacities to take in more purchase orders, or else they will have to turn down orders and lose their market share, or even lose their customers to their competitors!
All business has competition, too bad we as small investors cannot get early info about the sales condition. So, advantage of being small investors are we are flexible and we do not fall in love with our investment. If anything wrongful or questionable symptoms spotted. Voila, and bypass.
Kindly be advised that 56,832,730 Rights Shares issued pursuant to the Rights Issue with Warrants will be granted listing and quotation with effect from 9.00 a.m., Monday, 20 June 2016. Kindly be also advised that PROLEXUS’s 56,832,730 Warrants A issued pursuant to the Rights Issue with Warrants will be admitted to the Official List of the Exchange and the listing and quotation of the Warrants A on the Main Market under the "Consumer Products" sector, will be granted with effect from 9.00 a.m., Monday, 20 June 2016. The Stock Number, Stock Short Name and ISIN Code of the Warrants A are "8966WA", "PRLEXUS-WA" and "MYL8966WAV64" respectively.
See the Company's Abridged Prospectus @ 20.May, page-41, Note-3, the Company has calculated their NA per share based on WA priced estimated at 83 sen, so the WA's market price should be about 80+/-, unless the mother shares' price is far below Rm1.59.
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Posted by rayloo > 2016-05-28 18:41 | Report Abuse
Another thing is the share price been declining