The biggest concern now is Donald Trump lately has a real chance of winning the presidential election, as the FBI Chief James Comey reopened the Hillary's email case a few days ago, and also a Bill Clinton's very old case in 2005. The past few days saw Hillary's 12-point lead over Trump vaporized off, or even show she is trailing 45:46 behind Trump (by ABC Polls).
Trump vow to tear off TPPA if he win, so that the manufacturing jobs will go back to America. This is a real concern to TPPA Signatories including Vietnam and Malaysia, where many of the apparel manufacturers including Prolexus have their production facilities.
Btw, local prominent stocks investors Cold-Eye, a proponent of long-term investments in Fundamental stocks, he recommends 30 stocks yesterday, Prolexus is in the list, see #18 below:
Latest news reported that FBI will not charge Hillary for the 'email-gate', so she has regained her lead in the polls again. Good news to stocks investors in general, and Prolexus investors especially.
Look at the bright side, Trump may cause USD to rally higher against RM, this will give higher profit margins to USD exporters like Magni and Prolexus.
Also, Prolexus has being growing in the past few years, without TPPA's status, which is supposed to start in 2018, so even if Trump tear off TPPA, US workers still can't compete with Vietnamese or Malaysian imported labours. US average minimum wage is $8/hr, compared to our RM5/hr (minimum wage RM900/month), or 7 times higher, plus their medicare and other benefits, their labour costs could be 8 to 10x higher, how to compete?
Even if brands like NIKE or UA wish to set up automated apparel production facilities in US, this won't help bring many jobs back to Americans as Trump intended, so they have to reconsider this move and keep status quo for the apparels industry.
Without TPPA, MAGNI and PROLEXUS registered spectacular growth over last 5 years. TPPA is unlikely to increase revenue because TPPA will not increase the sales of NIKE. What TPPA will likely affect is the profit margin. Without TPPA, MAGNI and PROLEXUS will lose opportunity of further improving profit margin, but should not affect current business.
Apparel production is a labor intensive, low value add manufacturing. Even in Malaysia Prolexus is struggling to get enough workers. As a result it is unlikely for apparel to be shifted back to US. Malaysia is not so high up in the value add chain. Companies in SG/TAIWAN/KOREA would have higher chance of being impacted.
Whether with or without TPPA, it simply doesn't make business sense to move labor intensive factories back to USA, Donald Trump and his family are very shrewd in business, so those apparels and shoe making industries should not be moved to US. See this news last month, even his family's shoemaking factory is moving from China to Africa to get even cheaper labor costs, but not going back to USA as he vowed during his election campaigns.
Mother may be Rm2.0 and above, if the USD uptrend continue to rise above Rm4.5, because of the imminent FED's interest rate hike next month, and most probably another few hikes next year...
At current price, the 2016 PE Ratio is still low at 10 only, next month's Q1-2017 results should show higher profits from stronger USD in the past few months, we can expect a pleasant surprise on the upside...
haha.. n_uay, can show us some proof?... i have seen enough this kind of rumour....
but one thing is for sure, Donald Trump just announced yesterday that USA will quit TPPA... but it is weird that Prlexus has gone up today but not down... share price for other export counters have gone down today but not Prlexus.. someone is supporting behind? the directors? haha...
iloveshare128, I think this present uptrend is mainly due to USD/RM uptrend, whereas TPPA's Trump effects was already digested by market after 8.Nov for 2 weeks.
TPPA would have been an added advantage because Malaysia could use TPPA as the platform to dive into new markets like Mexico, Peru, etc who are also TPPA nations but so far have no trade agreements with Malaysia. Anyway, the positive effects of TPPA would only be derived after 2 years or by 2018, so the profits that Prolexus is getting now does not depend on TPPA, it still can grow well while it could have even better with TPPA, because Vietnam is the fastest growing nation in ASEAN now, having an apparel factory there means getting a bigger market share in future when the Vietnamese are more affluent.
So, Prolexus is still a good and sound growth stock with high potential, with or without TPPA.
R40s, you have a point here.. but Trump mentioned before that he will impose tax/duty on imported items to protect US manufacturing... perhaps this will impact Prlexus at a certain extent as most of its apparels are being exported to the US... their profit margin will be squeezed...
iloveshare128, I think Trump is going after big-ticket items like cars, steel products, and high-tech items like smartphones. As for low-tech labor intensive types like shoes, apparels, etc, I think he is not interested. The reasons, beside I mentioned about his family's Ivanka branded Shoes, just moved from China to Africa instead of back to US, the choice is obvious.
If Trump were to impose high tariffs on such products which US can't produce competitively, the consumers may end up paying 2 or 3 times higher prices, imagine what kind of backlash he would be getting? He would get a Lose-Lose-Lose situation, smart guy like him would not do it.
Still have WTO which is already in place for many years, which Trump can't simply ditch without Congress approval, and the mainstream Republican MPs won't allow him to do that.
Prlexus announced poor dividend this year... 1 cent less than last year.. overall DY is below 2% now... their earning improved but still tight with cash flow....
It is mainly due to the 2:1 RI that increased the share base by nearly 50%, but the total payout is actually higher QoQ, so your claim of better earning but tight cash flow is incorrect.
hi R40s, oh ya, i forgot about the 2:1 RI... thanks for reminding... anyway, DY is just below 2%.. i am thinking to sell it now as the DY is not attractive to me....
Mr. Fong Siling @ Cold-Eyes, the successful Malaysian investor, holds the view that as long as the stock he buys has good growth prospects, he is not concerned even if the share price comes down due to poor market sentiments.
Also, growth stocks usually prefer to reinvest their profits to grow their businesses instead of giving out high dividends.
iloveshare128.... if go for DY prlexus is not a good share. I notice that company is quite prudent and give little dividend to conserve cash for operations. also it was in financial difficulty before so it is being super cautious. Need to see the growth prospects.. annual report just came out I will need to study and see.
hi R40s, in the latest 2016 annual report, Fong Siling is no longer the 30 top shareholders.. he had sold his shares... i remembered he was promoting this share in a recent talk... i did not expect Cold Eye to have silently sold his shares... haiz...
Hi Dolly, I believe Mr. Fong sold off most of his Prolexus shares during second half of last year when their prices charted new highs, subsequently the prices went downtrend. He recommended Prolexus again 3 weeks ago, that's after the post-RI share prices have consolidated already. The Situations and conditions have changed after that, with their expansion plans progressing well, and USD vs RM strengthening again to new highs post-1998 Currency Crisis.
Who know? It may be possible that Mr. Fong has already collected back some Prolexus shares? But if he still not yet own enough shares to become Top-30 shareholders, he need not declare his shareholdings. With that in mind, it's not fair to blame him for recommending a stock which he sold off earlier, and that he need announce whether he bought or sold his Prolexus shares now.
due to the stupid BNM new policy of 75% revenue from export sales must be converted back to MYR in 6 months? BNM is indeed a failed body after Zeti was forced to leave... sad for Malaysia...
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
R40s
348 posts
Posted by R40s > 2016-11-04 15:17 | Report Abuse
The biggest concern now is Donald Trump lately has a real chance of winning the presidential election, as the FBI Chief James Comey reopened the Hillary's email case a few days ago, and also a Bill Clinton's very old case in 2005. The past few days saw Hillary's 12-point lead over Trump vaporized off, or even show she is trailing 45:46 behind Trump (by ABC Polls).
Trump vow to tear off TPPA if he win, so that the manufacturing jobs will go back to America. This is a real concern to TPPA Signatories including Vietnam and Malaysia, where many of the apparel manufacturers including Prolexus have their production facilities.